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Post by hc87 on Aug 7, 2017 22:28:55 GMT -5
The Bucknell and Monmouth games are critical....if we lose those, we're looking at a disastrous season imo....picks to follow soon
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Aug 29, 2017 14:47:31 GMT -5
I come up with 4.5 wins based on the sum of the chances of winning each game, from a 5% chance of winning at Connecticut to a 90% chance of beating Lafayette at home and Georgetown at home (and those 90% numbers may be high.....). So I'll play the optimist and say 5 wins. I'd be overjoyed with 6 wins for the season.
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Post by hc87 on Aug 29, 2017 15:26:00 GMT -5
I'll join the 5 win club here.... @bucknell, Lafayette, Monmouth, GTown and another W that we "steal" somewhere along the way.
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Aug 29, 2017 15:48:13 GMT -5
I'm in the six win camp. We will probably win a game or two we aren't supposed to, while losing one we are supposed to win.
Connecticut - L Bucknell - W New Hampshire - L Dartmouth - L Lafayette - W Monmouth - W Yale - W Colgate - W Georgetown - W Fordham - L Lehigh - L
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Post by dadominate on Aug 29, 2017 16:06:37 GMT -5
if 1.) guild stays healthy and 2.) the defense can finally play consistently from start to finish (i realize this is related to guild's health, wrt time of possession)... i think we win 6-7 games.
if guild gets injured again and/or the defense continues to wear down during the stretch of games, i think we win 4-5 games.
averaging these two scenarios, i see us finishing 6-5.
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Aug 29, 2017 16:09:15 GMT -5
And here's where each team on our schedule ranks per Jeff Sagarin's rankings:
Connecticut: 122 New Hampshire: 141 Colgate (1-0): 150 Lehigh: 159 Fordham: 172 Dartmouth: 188 Monmouth: 197 Yale: 198 Bucknell: 206 Lafayette: 222 Georgetown: 223
HC checks in at 199.
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Post by sader1970 on Aug 29, 2017 17:20:39 GMT -5
I'm on record above as predicting a 5 win season.
I actually did a Survey Monkey poll of my classmates, some very well versed on the team and football while others not so much, and asked them to pick which games Holy Cross would win. Interesting results. Let's see if there is "Wisdom of the Crowd." (I've highlighted where 50%+ predicted a win)
UConn 5.26%
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Bucknell 57.89%
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University of New Hampshire 42.11%
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Dartmouth 42.11%
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Lafayette 73.68% –
Monmouth 78.95%
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Yale 31.58%
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Colgate 47.37%
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Georgetown 89.47% –
Fordham 26.32%
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Lehigh 21.05%
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Post by hc87 on Aug 29, 2017 17:21:51 GMT -5
Not to look ahead, (though I will anyway) but again, I think the @bucknell game may well be one of the biggest games HC has had in awhile. Hyperbolic perhaps, but a loss there and we could possibly start out 0-4 and then who knows???
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Post by sader1970 on Nov 6, 2017 15:32:48 GMT -5
[bump]
With one game left to play, unless a statistical miracle happens and we win the PL on a tie-breaker, thought you karnacs might want to review what you said before the season.
i happened to pick the 4-5 wins so pretty much I will be right since we have 4 already and could possibly win 5. My more specific prediction was 5 but I will admit I had so many predicted wins turn into actual losses and vice versa.
What a season!
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Post by hc87 on Nov 6, 2017 22:08:01 GMT -5
It's interesting, given what's transpired this season, expectations in August really weren't that great....35/44 had us in the 4-7 win range, essentially where we will ultimately end up.
I suppose the heady start to the year: near win at UConn, blow-out of UNH etc altered nearly everyone's expectations which were then crushed as we all well know.
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Post by 6sader7 on Nov 6, 2017 22:13:49 GMT -5
If you always do what you've always done, you'll always get what you've always got...
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Post by hcpride on Nov 7, 2017 5:45:53 GMT -5
38% in the poll said a 4-5 win season.
Seemed pretty simple that a team that was not too good the previous 4 years would be not too good this year (barring game-changing recruits and/or wholesale coaching changes).
(I predicted 4 wins including an upset...of course I was way off on the particulars...and gulped a little of my own Grape koolaid after UConn/Bucknell/UNH string.)
And finally, those who think 'contending for the Patriot title' is a worthy ultimate goal...this year is Exhibit A on how you can be pretty darn awful and nevertheless 'contend' for the Patriot title up to the very last week. The league is so weak and the math so ridiculous -- that sort of thinking breeds nearly unwatchable football.
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Post by hc87 on Nov 7, 2017 12:06:56 GMT -5
And finally, those who think 'contending for the Patriot title' is a worthy ultimate goal...this year is Exhibit A on how you can be pretty darn awful and nevertheless 'contend' for the Patriot title up to the very last week. The league is so weak and the math so ridiculous -- that sort of thinking breeds nearly unwatchable football. This does pose somewhat of a conundrum, dilemma, whatevah you want to call it: i.e. can we ever really improve enough (under PL restrictions) to warrant playing a very challenging OOC slate every year? It seems that only Colgate and Fordham, besides ourselves, have the same scheduling philosophy (FBS, strong OOC FCS opponents) and they have had very mixed results at best with this lately. My hope is that the PL is still suffering growing pains as it enters (or re-enters for us) the scholarship-era and this past season was "our terrible twos (really five, I know)" for PL football if you will. Ultimately, this gets to the basic argument we have waged here lo these many years vis a vis HC athletics&the PL: do we want to be strong enough in football to competitively play schools like BC, Syracuse, Navy and regularly defeat schools like UNH, Yale and Harvard or do we want to be an upstanding, don't rock the boat football member of the PL? Is there a middle ground?
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