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Post by sader1970 on Jan 2, 2018 13:42:59 GMT -5
All the discussion about allowing open 3s had me wondering how Carmody's teams have done vs. other recent coaches. I am sure you numbers guys can/will look at other sources and chime in but based on the HC basketball archives that go back to the '02-'03 season, here is food for thought. I did not take the time to actually add the total shots taken and made and simply looked at the season averages and "averaged the averages" which should put us in the ballpark though not with 100% accuracy recognizing a season taking a lot more or a lot fewer shots would be more accurate.
First, 3 point percentage made:
Carmody (2 full seasons): HC .336 Opponents: .350 Brown (5 sesaons): HC .340 Opponents: .341 Kearney (1 season): HC .381 Opponents .353 Willard (7 seasons*): HC .345 Opponents .345
* - as far back as on line archives go
Interesting factoids: The best 3 point defense of the years reviewed was Ralph's '05-'06 team with a .303 opponent 3 pointers but followed up the next season, '06-'07 allowing .378. Milan's teams had the best 3 point defense in back-to-back seasons allowing .305 in '11-'12 followed up by .318 in '12-'13 but then the bottom fell out the next two seasons with .374 and .373 (he was terminated at the end of that season).
As far as "we don't shoot it that well," our best 3 point percentage made was '09-'10 under Sean Kearny at .381 which was the season immediately following Ralph's departure for Louisville and, interestingly, that last season under Ralph, we shot the worst at .314. That '09-'10 season was so good because of basically two players: Devin Brown hit .448 for the season and Andrew Beinert hit .433 skewing the numbers north. Someone with a better memory than I can tell me why they didn't do as well under Ralph's last year.
Oh, in case you were wondering, so far this season, HC is hitting .356 of its 3s and our opponents shooting .372. It would seem we are more successful offensively as far as 3 point shooting is concerned but doing REALLY poorly defending the 3. Of course, you already knew that but now we have some numbers to corroborate.
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Post by rgs318 on Jan 2, 2018 14:26:30 GMT -5
Interesting. Thanks, 70.
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Post by timholycross on Jan 2, 2018 15:31:21 GMT -5
I guess the other thing that would make a difference in the numbers are the following:
a. How many 3s did HC and the opponents attempt in those eras? Most likely the numbers of attempts have increased for both, as they have for nearly all teams at all levels, high school, college, pro. b. How to attempts and makes compare with the norms for college basketball? 37.2% sure sounds bad, but, relatively speaking, it may not be.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jan 2, 2018 15:50:27 GMT -5
For Holy Cross, season to date, 41.2% of field goal attempts have come from beyond the arc. The D-1 average is 37.5%. Among all D-1 schools HC is #94 in 3PT attempts as a % of FGA.
HC is shooting 35.6% on its threes versus a D-1 average of 35.0%
Here's how three point attempts as a % of field goal attempts have changed over the years. I checked every other year (on KenPom) and note that '2002"= 2001-2002
2002= 32.1% 2004= 32.7% 2006= 33.2% 2008=34.5% 2010= 32.6% 2012= 32.9% 2014= 32.9% 2016= 35.4% 2018= 37.5%
So, the last two years show an increase
Three point fg shooting percentage varies only from .342 to .350 in the 9 seasons I checked
So here's an easy ballpark: a typical team take 35% of its FG attempts from three point land and makes 35% of those attempts
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Post by sader1970 on Jan 2, 2018 16:38:42 GMT -5
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Post by timholycross on Jan 3, 2018 8:44:40 GMT -5
That's a good rating game if anyone wants to play: rank the coaches in terms of their teams' defensive abilities.
Donahue, Blaney, Raynor, Willard, Kearney, Brown & Carmody.
I put Willard first and last is up for grabs with Raynor, Carmody & Kearney (with an asterisk, when he played Sean Kearney's defense he's DEAD LAST by a lot; when he played Willard's he was ok) all in the mix for the bottom.
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Post by possum on Jan 3, 2018 11:04:09 GMT -5
Interesting the 4 worst teams in the league to date American, HC, Lafayette and Loyola are the worst 3 point shooting teams. Of this group we are the worst at defending the 3 with a negative 3.5% differential between makes and misses. Last years team was basically break-even on 3 point differential. I thought that we had recruited a bunch of shooters but to date that hasn't been the case. Butler is only hitting 29.5% of his threes so far.
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Post by nhteamer on Jan 3, 2018 11:42:12 GMT -5
I have a soft spot for Donohue.
Admit not as soft as his defense, though.
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Post by hchoops on Jan 3, 2018 11:46:08 GMT -5
I have a soft spot for Donohue. Winning %—.616 RW- .615 tied for 4th on HC coaches wins list 5th in winning %
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Post by Tom on Jan 3, 2018 12:17:27 GMT -5
I have a soft spot for Donohue. Admit not as soft as his defense, though. Donohue's teams were better at any of the others at defending the 3 point shot. Not one was scored against HC during his tenure
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jan 3, 2018 12:38:08 GMT -5
Interesting the 4 worst teams in the league to date American, HC, Lafayette and Loyola are the worst 3 point shooting teams. Of this group we are the worst at defending the 3 with a negative 3.5% differential between makes and misses. Last years team was basically break-even on 3 point differential. I thought that we had recruited a bunch of shooters but to date that hasn't been the case. Butler is only hitting 29.5% of his threes so far. I think Austin Butler will be a good three point shooter--he still has a solid green light. We have many examples of players who hit a low percentage as freshmen and improved their three point shooting significantly as sophomores or from frosh & soph to junior & senior. Karl Charles .284 as freshman .375 as sophomore Malcolm Miller-- did not play a lot as freshman and sophomore .300 as freshman and sophomore .398 as junior and senior Dave Dudzinski-- .268 as freshman and sophomore .349 as junior and senior Malachi Alexander .207 as freshman .422 as a sophomore .411 as a junior & senior Robt Champion .271 as a freshman .381 as a sophomore .341 as a junior & senior--taking a lot of shots Torey Thomas .250 as a freshman and sophomore .381 as a junior and senior Andrew Beinert .322 as a freshman .454 as a sophomore .407 as a junior & senior Brian Wilson--was a lot better shooter as a freshman than others on this list--but look at the improvement .329 as a freshman .359 as a sophomore .444 as a junior & senior Justin Burrell .307 as a freshman .383 as a sophomore
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jan 6, 2018 16:24:30 GMT -5
Here's something that you may find surprising: in our 14 games, we have actually held our opponents to a 3 PT FG PCTG that was lower than their season average:
Opponent=3PT PCTG for Season/3 PT PCTG vs HC
Sacred Heart= 26.7/20.0 Harvard= 29.0/27.6 URI= 35.8/43.8 FDU= 31.1/40.0 Albany= 36.1/47.6 Manhattan= 38.2/34.8 LaSalle= 32.9/34.8 UMass= 37.1/33.3 UNH= 36.7/27.3 Iona=37.8/54.1 Siena=37.9/29.4 Colgate=39.5/48.1 Lafayette=32.9/30.4 Lehigh=36.6/57.7
Caveats: I understand that being 1.4% points better versus Harvard is a marginal improvement while being 21.1 % pts worse versus Lehigh is catastrophic. Also, please note that I am not saying we have a good defense against the three.
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Post by timholycross on Jan 6, 2018 17:19:26 GMT -5
If I understand what you wrote
Sacred Heart= 26.7/20.0 Better Win Harvard= 29.0/27.6 Better Win URI= 35.8/43.8 Worse Loss FDU= 31.1/40.0 Worse Loss Albany= 36.1/47.6 Worse Loss Manhattan= 38.2/34.8 Better Loss LaSalle= 32.9/34.8 Worse Loss UMass= 37.1/33.3 Better Loss UNH= 36.7/27.3 Better Win Iona=37.8/54.1 Worse Loss Siena=37.9/29.4 Better Loss Colgate=39.5/48.1 Worse Loss Lafayette=32.9/30.4 Better Loss Lehigh=36.6/57.7 Worse Loss Better 7 Worse 7 Record in the "Better" games 3-4. Record in the "Worse" games 0-7.
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Post by WorcesterGray on Jan 6, 2018 17:40:50 GMT -5
Also, please note that I am not saying we have a good defense against the three. And we aren't - ranked 303rd. Which may be why virtually all our opponents (11 of 14) have been taking threes vs. us at a higher rate than they do otherwise. Starting with the SHU - season three-point rate average, rate vs. HC in parens (rounded up). SHU - 33% (35%)Harvard - 42% (56%)URI - 29% (25%) FDU - 37% (38%)Albany - 26% (36%)Manhattan - 36% (49%)LaSalle - 37% (46%)
UMass - 39% (52%)
UNH - 46% (57%)Iona - 44% (71%)
Siena - 33% (35%)
Colgate - 47% (45%) Lafayette - 45% (43%) Lehigh - 38% (47%)
On the season, teams have taken 45% of their shots from beyond the arc vs. Holy Cross, ranking us 338th.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jan 6, 2018 18:11:21 GMT -5
Great addition. I was going to include that but I had to head to 5PM mass.
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