Sunday, 01/14 and Monday, 01/15 PL Basketball, You Pick...

Holy Cross (I see this game as a toss-up...not sure I expect a win here, but we NEED one right now, so what the heck).
Loyola
Lehigh
Navy (home court for the Mids, and I am not sure illness or injury matter when it comes to this game)
Bucknell (The Bison seem to do well on tv)

Boston Univ. @ Holy Cross 

Lafayette @ Loyola 

American @ Lehigh

Army @ Navy 

Bucknell @ Colgate 

BU
Loyola
Lehigh
Navy
Bucknell

Holy Cross
Lafayette
Lehigh
Army
Colgate

BU
Lafayette
Lehigh
Navy
Bucknell

Boston Univ
Loyola
Lehigh
Army
Bucknell

BU
Loyola
Lehigh
Navy
Colgate

45, I assume you will be making your picks at 12:55 pm from your seat at the Hart Center after watching the Crusaders warming up so you can get that little edge on the competition. 

Holy Cross
Lafayette
Lehigh
Navy
Bucknell

Holy Cross-- BU has lost on the road to #318 UMass-Lowell and #302 Loyola, so we'll see if (hopefully better than) #309 Holy Cross can beat the Terriers today. BU is 8-2 when it has eff fg pctg of 52.5% or better and 0-6 when it does not. HC defense averages 53.5% and has held opponents to 50% or lower in 9 of 16 games, including all 4 wins. BU is a very good three point shooting team (38.2% = #53 in D-1) while HC has struggled to defend (37.3% = #273). In PL play (bear in mind HC has not faced Bucknell or Army) HC has done well with the two point fg, #1 in 2 PT FG PCTG and #3 in 2 PT defense. BU draws a lot of fouls and HC commits a lot of them, so the free throw line may not be a friend to the Crusaders today. It comes down to defense for HC, according to the stats, with HC winning 4 of its 6 best defensive efficiency games. HC does shoot much better at home (probably every team does so) with an effective field goal percentage of 46.3% on the road and 55.2% at home. Perhaps we'll see more of Kyle Copeland today as he played well in latest when we got ripped off at Navy. Hope for this win is that things come together for HC, that shots fall for us (always a huge factor), and that we can avoid a huge negative discrepancy on the free throw line.

Loyola-- Here's a strange game. Lafayette relies heavily on three point shooting (45% of its attempts, #38 in D-1) yet has a low percentage. What's really odd is that Laf is 0-6 when it makes 10+ threes and 0-6 when it has a % of 35% or higher. All of its wins have come on the defensive end (if you believe in those stats). Laf is 3-3 when opponents have eff fg pctg of 45% or lower and 1-9 otherwise. Loyola is not a good shooting team but does average 47.5% and has bettered the 45% benchmark in 11 of 16 games, including 5 of its 6 home games, winning 4 of them. I see Loyola controlling the boards for a win today. Kostecka has played well in PL games and has provided a boost to the team since returning to the lineup.

Lehigh-- AU upset Loyola when Loyola had its 2nd worst shooting game of the year and AU had its best by far at an excellent 68.5%. AU is 4-2 when opponents are < 46% in eff fg pctg and 0-10 otherwise. Lehigh is at 50.4% for the season and has better 46% in 12 of 16 games, including 5 of 6 home games, winning 4 times. Lehigh shoots much better at home. Pat Andree is playing well, hitting 54% of his threes in PL games. Lehigh is 6-3 when opponents are < 55% in eff fg pctg and 1-6 when opponents do better. AU averages 50.3% I see Lehigh controlling the defensive boards and prevailing.

Army-- In their last 4 meetings the visiting team has won each game. Army is a great shooting team, #6 in D-1 in three point percentage and has 5 players at 43% or better. Oddly, Luke Morrison takes the most 3's and is at 33%, but was higher the two prior seasons. Army has had the same starters every game. Army is 1-5 when opponents hit 3's at better than 40% (Navy is at 34% for the year) and 9-1 when opponents are below that. Navy is 9-0 when it makes 36% of its threes and 3-5 when it does not. Twos are also critical: 10-1 when it makes 50%+ and 2-5 when below that mark. Navy rebounds well and commits few fouls (we saw that...) and Army draws few fouls. Still, I'm taking a chance on Army hitting some threes to beat its rival.

Bucknell-- Bucknell's very good offense comes up against Colgate's mediocre defense. It's not a done deal though as Bucknell is 0-4 when opponents shoot 54% or better and Colgate does that half the time. Colgate is 6-0 when it shoots 56% or better and 2-8 when it does not. Bucknell's defense averages 50.5%. Can Colgate keep Bucknell off the free throw line? Colgate is 7-0 when opponents are <24% in free throw rate and 1-8 when 29% or higher (no games in between). Bucknell has been great at drawing fouls, #54 in D-1 with 39.2% for the season. It has been below Colgate's magic 24% benchmark once this year, at Maryland. Bucknell can win on the road and will no doubt be hlped with Kimbal MacKenzie returning to the lineup. He played 19 minutes in last game, getting 8 points.

Thanks for the reminder! Almost forgot! Leaving for the game now... I'm so far back that even watching the warmups and getting the pre game info would not help!  !

Holy Cross 
Lafayette
Lehigh
Army
Buckenll

Go CRUSADERS!!

Note that Bucknell had yet another second half surge and defeated Colgate tonight.

Here is Bucknell's Advantage/Deficit by half in each game. In the OT game I included the OT with second half

Vs American U= +11/+18 That is, Bucknell outscored AU by 11 in first half and 18 in second half
Vs Boston U= (7)/+2 not enough for the win
Vs Army = +8/+9
Vs Lafayette= (7)/+12 to win in OT
vs Lehigh= +2/+11
vs Colgate= (2)/+14

Bucknell has played better in the second half of every PL game: depth, conditioning/stamina, half-time adjustments???