|
Post by rgs318 on Jan 18, 2018 8:25:13 GMT -5
Massey makes the Bison an 18 point favorite (80-62) and gives them a 95% chance for the win. I guess that is pretty clear.
|
|
|
Post by sader1970 on Jan 18, 2018 9:23:33 GMT -5
Perfect! They will take the Crusaders lightly and set up for an upset!
|
|
|
Post by WorcesterGray on Jan 19, 2018 14:26:24 GMT -5
Massey makes the Bison an 18 point favorite (80-62) If that was a betting line, I'd be taking Holy Cross with both fists. Bucknell should win, but there are windows of opportunity here. The Bison don't cause a lot of turnovers, so shouldn't disrupt our ability to get into the half-court offense. They haven't been a great offensive rebounding team this year - vs. Army, HC snared 75% of the available defensive boards, the sixth consecutive game of 70%+. And Nathan Davis is likely to play M2M most, if not all, the time, the defense our guys prefer to play against. Floyd-Foulland is a key matchup. Jehyve needs to be assertive, but stay out of foul trouble, something of a challenge for both big men - Floyd's 65 PFs lead the PL, while Foulland is close behind with 60. Crusaders as a group need to watch the fouls - Bucknell's FTA/FGA is nearly 40%, best in the conference and 48th nationally.
|
|
|
Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jan 19, 2018 14:32:29 GMT -5
Bucknell has won both regular season games each of the past three seasons. Last year JF played 4 minutes in the first game and 13 in the second. Zach Thomas was the MVP in both games last year
HC won the PL tournament game versus Bucknell two years ago.......
|
|
|
Post by Sons of Vaval on Jan 19, 2018 14:34:01 GMT -5
HC won the PL tournament game versus Bucknell two years ago....... What game was that? Do you have any highlights handy from it?
|
|
|
Post by Tom on Jan 19, 2018 14:45:43 GMT -5
Massey makes the Bison an 18 point favorite (80-62) If that was a betting line, I'd be taking Holy Cross with both fists. Bucknell should win, but there are windows of opportunity here. HC failed to cover 18 once this season. @uri 88-66
|
|
|
Post by hchoops on Jan 19, 2018 14:48:01 GMT -5
Massey makes the Bison an 18 point favorite (80-62) Floyd-Foulland is a key matchup. Jehyve needs to be assertive, but stay out of foul trouble, something of a challenge for both big men - Floyd's 65 PFs lead the PL, while Foulland is close behind with 60. Our zones vs Thomas with his deep 3 point range may be more of a key. We do have a quickness advantage at at least one position on offense, ex. KC (if healthy) /JG vs Thomas
|
|
|
Post by bison137 on Jan 19, 2018 14:51:15 GMT -5
Massey makes the Bison an 18 point favorite (80-62) If that was a betting line, I'd be taking Holy Cross with both fists. Bucknell should win, but there are windows of opportunity here. The Bison don't cause a lot of turnovers, so shouldn't disrupt our ability to get into the half-court offense. They haven't been a great offensive rebounding team this year - vs. Army, HC snared 75% of the available defensive boards, the sixth consecutive game of 70%+. And Nathan Davis is likely to play M2M most, if not all, the time, the defense our guys prefer to play against. Floyd-Foulland is a key matchup. Jehyve needs to be assertive, but stay out of foul trouble, something of a challenge for both big men - Floyd's 65 PFs lead the PL, while Foulland is close behind with 60. Crusaders as a group need to watch the fouls - Bucknell's FTA/FGA is nearly 40%, best in the conference and 48th nationally. Agree that line is too high. Pomeroy has it at 16 points, which I still think is too high. True, they haven't been a great offensive rebounding team - but that is largely due to having played a much tougher OOC schedule than any PL team. In PL games, however, they are getting about 31% of available offensive rebounds - which ranks 3rd in the league. You are correct that you will see mostly M2M - probably 100% M2M. I don't think ND has played five possessions of zone the entire year. Foulland is committing 4.1 fouls per 40 minutes - which is high but not outrageously so. Floyd, in comparison, commits 5.1 per 40. Foulland also draws 5.6 fouls per 40. Since league play started, he has been double-teamed virtually every time he touches the ball. I expect that to continue on Saturday. With Thomas also drawing extra defensive attention, it is up to Bucknell's other players to take advantage. Stephen Brown has stepped up - but generally only in the second halves of games. In the seven PL games, he has scored 21 points in the first half (i.e. 3.0 per half) and 80 points in the second half (i.e. 10.5 per half). That plus a terrible first half turnover problem is why Bucknell in PL games has been poor in the first half of games and great in the second halves.
|
|
|
Post by hchoops on Jan 19, 2018 14:55:22 GMT -5
Thanks for the analysis. Hard for our zones to double team often. Thomas’ range and Nana inside will present major challenges.
|
|
|
Post by bison137 on Jan 19, 2018 16:00:24 GMT -5
Thanks for the analysis. Hard for our zones to double team often. Thomas’ range and Nana inside will present major challenges. With Foulland's ability to hit a very high pct of his jump hooks, either righty or lefty, he can score at a very high rate if not doubled when he gets the ball. That is why he has been doubled virtually every time he has touched the ball in the post in PL play. He got a lot more shot attempts against P6 and A-10 opponents who guarded him straight up more frequently. Against four A-10 teams and three P6 teams (UNC, Arkansas, and Maryland), he averaged 13 shots per game and hit 62.4%. Against PL opponents, he averages 9 shots per game and hits 60.3%. Foulland has no ability to shoot from the outside or even face up and hit a mid-range jumper. And he has few post moves other than backing in and shooting a jump hook (or dunking off a pass as he rolls to the basket). So a double-team that makes it impossible for him to shoot the jump hook limits his ability to get shots.
|
|
|
Post by hchoops on Jan 19, 2018 16:06:59 GMT -5
But that strategy also leaves open one of your good 3 point shooters. 2 or 3 ?
|
|
|
Post by purplehaze on Jan 19, 2018 16:13:55 GMT -5
This will also be a tough environment - easily the most hostile of our league road games so far. Bison are back in class (why is HC's winter break so long ?! - I think it's a disadvantage for our teams)
|
|
|
Post by bison137 on Jan 19, 2018 16:18:56 GMT -5
But that strategy also leaves open one of your good 3 point shooters. 2 or 3 ? True. But if Foulland (or Thomas) are going to score almost at will, PL teams have opted to double and hope the outside shooters don't hit the threes. With the recent return of Kimbal Mackenzie - who hit over 43% of his PL threes last year - it has become more of a gamble to double-team. Stephen Brown is hitting 38% on PL threes and Sotos about 40% - which is fairly good but not as good as I'd like to see, given how many of the shots are open ones. Avi Toomer, who just returned from a long absence due to a stress fracture, is a decent 3-point shooter as well.
|
|
|
Post by bison137 on Jan 19, 2018 16:20:11 GMT -5
This will also be a tough environment - easily the most hostile of our league road games so far. Bison are back in class (why is HC's winter break so long ?! - I think it's a disadvantage for our teams) It's very unlikely there will be much of a student turnout. With a noon start, most students aren't even awake yet - especially with the first fraternity parties of the semester the night before.
|
|
|
Post by hchoops on Jan 19, 2018 16:22:48 GMT -5
But that strategy also leaves open one of your good 3 point shooters. 2 or 3 ? True. But if Foulland (or Thomas) are going to score almost at will, PL teams have opted to double and hope the outside shooters don't hit the threes. With the recent return of Kimbal Mackenzie - who hit over 43% of his PL threes last year - it has become more of a gamble to double-team. Stephen Brown is hitting 38% on PL threes and Sotos about 40% - which is fairly good but not as good as I'd like to see, given how many of the shots are open ones. A bit greedy for the first place team and odds on PLC favorite ?
|
|
|
Post by WorcesterGray on Jan 19, 2018 16:52:25 GMT -5
But if Foulland (or Thomas) are going to score almost at will, PL teams have opted to double and hope the outside shooters don't hit the threes. And they haven't been - shooting just 32% from deep in conference play. I'd rather we stay at home, make it difficult for them to operate inside and contest the boards. More concerned about the disparity in FTA (Bucknell averaging 23/g, HC 12/g in conference) - offensively, hope we take advantage of the m2m and attack the rim more than we have been wont to do, and get to the line more often..
|
|
|
Post by bison137 on Jan 19, 2018 17:39:10 GMT -5
But if Foulland (or Thomas) are going to score almost at will, PL teams have opted to double and hope the outside shooters don't hit the threes. And they haven't been - shooting just 32% from deep in conference play. I'd rather we stay at home, make it difficult for them to operate inside and contest the boards. More concerned about the disparity in FTA (Bucknell averaging 23/g, HC 12/g in conference) - offensively, hope we take advantage of the m2m and attack the rim more than we have been wont to do, and get to the line more often.. 1. Much of the BU advantage in FTA's is due to Thomas. He ranks 5th in the nation in fouls drawn per 40, with 8.2 fouls drawn per 40 minutes. Leads the nation in FTA's. 2. Agree they have not been hitting the threes at an acceptable rate. The "blame" goes to Thomas - who has hit only 9-28 in PL games starting with his bad flu-ridden game vs Boston U - plus Nate Jones (2-11), Matt O'Reilly (1-6), and Nate Sestina (1-6). Combined they are 13-53 (24.5%). I am not too worried about Thomas since he has hit almost 45% for his career and about 48% in PL games prior to this year. Jones apparently has dropped out of the rotation with the return of Toomer and the emergence of Ben Robertson. And O'Reilly, who has been bothered by a bad foot all year, has been shut down for six weeks. As for the others, Stephen Brown, Jimmy Sotos, Bruce Moore, Kimbal Mackenzie, and Avi Toomer are combining for an OK 39.3%, and they all will take any open ones that pop up.
|
|
|
Post by possum on Jan 19, 2018 18:51:25 GMT -5
Think we are in way over our head in this game in both talent and experience. I'll be stunned if this is a competitive game into the 2nd half. Hopefully I'll be stunned.
|
|
|
Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jan 19, 2018 19:28:46 GMT -5
39.3% on threes is “okay” ? 9 our of 10 teams would kill for that percentage...and of course you know that
|
|
|
Post by bison137 on Jan 19, 2018 19:30:46 GMT -5
39.3% on threes is “okay” ? 9 our of 10 teams would kill for that percentage...and of course you know that I really don't think it's better than OK, given that the double-teaming of Foulland and Thomas means most of their shots are open, stationary shots with the shooter square to the basket. Guards and wings should expect to hit close to 40% of those kind of threes.
|
|
|
Post by bison137 on Jan 19, 2018 19:48:19 GMT -5
. I'll be stunned if this is a competitive game into the 2nd half. Hopefully I'll be stunned. I think you may be stunned. Bucknell has only had one PL game (American) where they had a decent lead at the half. Here is the point differential for Bucknell's seven PL games by "quarters": 1st 10 minutes: +9 2nd 10 minutes: -9 - - - - - 3rd 10 minutes: +61 4th 10 minutes: +18
|
|
|
Post by lou on Jan 19, 2018 20:31:25 GMT -5
Good news, Birdsong will be on the radio
The game can be heard in the Susquehanna Valley on the radio on Eagle 107 (WEGH 107.3 FM), with Doug Birdsong handling the play-by-play. The pregame show begins 30 minutes before tip-off.
|
|
|
Post by hchoops on Jan 19, 2018 20:35:06 GMT -5
39.3% on threes is “okay” ? 9 our of 10 teams would kill for that percentage...and of course you know that I really don't think it's better than OK, given that the double-teaming of Foulland and Thomas means most of their shots are open, stationary shots with the shooter square to the basket. Most of all teams’ 3s are open, stationary shots with the shooter square to the basket
|
|
|
Post by bison137 on Jan 19, 2018 21:02:11 GMT -5
I really don't think it's better than OK, given that the double-teaming of Foulland and Thomas means most of their shots are open, stationary shots with the shooter square to the basket. Most of all teams’ 3s are open, stationary shots with the shooter square to the basket In the games I watch, a number of them are by players coming around screens and not getting fully set. Or stationary shots with a defender running out on them. In Bucknell's case, the guards/wings have been getting a high pct of shots with no defenders close.
|
|
|
Post by hchoops on Jan 19, 2018 21:04:34 GMT -5
Ok i guess there are a few varieties of open. i hope HC does not show the one you refer to.
|
|