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Post by CHC8485 on May 5, 2018 13:50:13 GMT -5
Not a betting man by any means, but it’s become an annual tradition here ...
What say you KY Crusader 75 give what is likely to be a very sloppy track?
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on May 5, 2018 14:22:04 GMT -5
The most exciting two minutes In sports happens in about four hours as we have the 144th Run for the Roses here in Louisville. This is perhaps the deepest, highest quality field, in generations; there are that many outstanding runners in the race today. I'd venture that 6 or 8 of them might well have been the favorite in just about any other year. Here's how I see the race unfolding:
Front Runners:
#3 Promises Fulfilled is clearly the rabbit and he will likely go out at a ridiculous pace, maybe under 47 seconds for the half mile. He is doomed to fade, of course. He'll be joined up front by #4 Flameaway , #16 Magnum Moon, and #7 Justify, the favorite. Some speed horses are intractable front runners who must have the lead--I don't think Justify is that kind as Mike Smith had him in second after 1/4 mile in his allowance race in March (in the mud--a good sign) and he went on to crush the field.
Tracking the Speed
Among the prominent pace pressers should be #11 Bolt d'Oro, #14 Mendelssohn, #19 Noble Indy, #6 Good Magic, #12 Enticed, and #17 Solomini. They'll track the speed and hope to move by them as the weaker front runners fade. Justify will survive the fast pace and likely emerge on the lead after 6 furlongs and Magnum Moon may be there as well.
The Closers
This group will run 5 to 10 or even more lengths behind the front runners through 6 furlongs or longer but begin to pick off some runners on the second turn. They'll hope to have enough gas in the tank to put on a strong closing kick in Churchill Downs's longest stretch in the country (1,234.56 feet) . Prominent closers are #9 Hofburg, #10 My Boy Jack (can't believe he's been bet down to 5-1, maybe some insiders know something...), and a colt I really like #18 Vino Rosso
Down The Stretch They Come
After they make the turn I see Justify (perhaps a freak--could well destroy the field as he may be that talented and Baffert trains him, nuff said) in the lead and Mendelssohn (incredible race in the UAE, but that is a notorious speed favoring track) may be with him. Bolt d'oro and Good Magic could be right behind them. Then I see Vino Rosso making up ground and passing horses as his closing kick and stamina pedigree come into play. I think Justify is the likeliest winner and will have him in some of my horizontals and on top in some double keys (trifecta and super) but I'm going to invest some $$ in Vino Rosso who offers great value with his long odds. He looked great in the Wood Memorial and has a great pedigree for a muddy or sloppy track. I think Mendelssohn, Good Magic, Bolt d'Oro, and Magnum Moon will give a good account of themselves in the deep stretch. The real money to be made is in finding the longer shots to fill out your trifecta or superfecta--maybe Solomini, Hofburg, and Lone Sailor. We had My Boy Jack in this category but he's no longer a long shot.
Our little "syndicate" had a major score in the Kentucky Oaks superfecta yesterday so we are well ahead. We're invested in the Pick Four and Derby Super (double key of Mendelssohn and Justify) and Tri today. I won't play today's Pick 4 on my own but am rolling pick threes and will play the Derby Exacta and Trifecta. I'm alive in the Oaks-Turf-Derby Pick Three and, along with everyone else, in the Oaks-Derby Double.
Good luck to anyone playing today. Who knows what this rain will do to these young runners....
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Post by HCFC45 on May 5, 2018 19:29:12 GMT -5
So, KY, How did you do? 7, 6, 5 was the trifecta! Did you have #7 Justify winning? I was hoping My Boy Jack would do well because everybody knew me as Jack growing up! But he did nothing today! Lots of rain, a muddy track and close to 150,000 in attendance! Great sponsor in Woodford Reserve, one of my favorites along with Bookers and Angels Envy!  ! |
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on May 5, 2018 20:07:23 GMT -5
I had Justify in a pick three and double that paid decently but put more weight on Vino Rosso who disappointed. My syndicate did well with the big hit on the Oaks superfecta and the oaks-Turf Classic- Derby pick three but I was in the red on my personal bets.
The pick six carries over. We hit that (Ky Derby day carryover) very big a few years ago (our second biggest P 6 win) when Churchill Downs ran a normal midweek card and rain caused multiple scratches. Let's see what this week brings--no doubt we'll see a big infusion of new players. CD racing secretary is no doubt scrambling now to boost field sizes
thanks for the support of Woodford Reserve--what a pleasure it was to work on that brand for 20 years
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Post by hchoops on May 5, 2018 20:13:55 GMT -5
Ky,
What chance do you think Justify has to win the next two ?:
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Post by cmo on May 6, 2018 8:10:47 GMT -5
KY - how about the superfecta that paid out 74,919 on a $1 bet during the pre races yesterday ?
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on May 6, 2018 8:58:01 GMT -5
Ky, What chance do you think Justify has to win the next two ?: Justify is the freak that many thought he could be--just an extremely talented horse who overcame the very fast pace (I said it could be under 47-0 and it was 45-3) and held off the late chargers to prevail. He'll go off in the Preakness at odds-on, I should think. I don't know how he came out of the Derby, but, assuming he's okay, I'll give him an 80% chance to win the Preakness at 1 &3/16ths miles. The Belmont is the tough one as (A) it's a mile and a half, (B) it's his third race in 5 weeks, (C) some fresher challengers could enter (Derby runners who skip the Preakness or completely new names). Let's assume Justify wins the Preakness, maybe in hand, and comes out of it okay. I'd then give him a 50% chance to win the Belmont. So, combine those two races and I'd say right now he has a 40% chance now to be the next Triple Crown winner. He's quite a horse. |
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Post by rgs318 on May 6, 2018 9:25:22 GMT -5
Thanks, KY.
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Post by rf1 on May 6, 2018 9:50:18 GMT -5
The NBC Kentucky Derby show broadcast was on from 2:30-7:30pm on Saturday. The race went off at 6:52pm and lasted all of 2:04.20 minutes. Nearly four hours of build-up for a 2 minute race with just 30 minutes of the award ceremony and results analysis.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on May 6, 2018 9:54:57 GMT -5
KY - how about the superfecta that paid out 74,919 on a $1 bet during the pre races yesterday ? That was a tremendous payoff there in the Pat Day Mile, much, much higher than I've ever got on a Superfecta. My best was about $17,000 (for $2) in a lark of a group bet many years ago. If you're interested in some racetrack math, read on----- Just going by the math in the Win Odds, I calculate that the chances of that order of finish in the Pat Day Mile were about 347,000 to 1. However, I'll guess that the very few people with a winning ticket will not be unhappy with their return. Clearly bettors hit the "All" button in a number of positions to hit that Super. That happens more in the 3rd and 4th position than in first and second. Maybe some bettors thought Funny Duck, who had about 2.0% of the win pool, had potential and gave him 4% of the first position on Super tickets. New York Central was 2.6% in the win pool, but, with some folks hitting "all", may have had 6% of second position in supers. Givemeaminit had 3.6% of the win pool but with "all" kicking in big-time in third position may have had 9% in the third position---you get the idea. It seems unlikely that many winners had these four in a big box (e.g. "boxing" 6 horses costs $360 for $1 and 7 cost $840) because the top three betting choices finished 8th, 9th, 10th and would have been included in most boxes, thus making it unlikely that the other runners included would have been these four. In contrast, our "syndicate" hit the Oaks superfecta 3 times @ $1,387 and I calculate that the odds of the exact finish were 1,171 to 1, so we got a "premium" over what the math suggested, even before the "takeout" of 25% by the track. We put in three tickets and hit them all--two were "double keys" and the last was a tight spread. I don't typically use boxes. |
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Post by sader1970 on May 6, 2018 10:23:31 GMT -5
Not to prolong a thread I have little personal interest in but was curious that if this was just horses running around in an oval by themselves, I am not sure how many fans would watch this or any horse race. Soooo, what about the jockeys? I assume they do more than just sit atop a horse as it runs the course. How about the human element? Or is a jockey like a basketball coach (or at least what some people think), that is, his main job is not to screw up a superior player, or horse in this case? When you bettors are figuring on who to put your money on, how much do you factor in the jockey? OK, carry on.  |
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Post by hchoops on May 6, 2018 11:03:55 GMT -5
Ky, What chance do you think Justify has to win the next two ?: Justify is the freak that many thought he could be--just an extremely talented horse who overcame the very fast pace (I said it could be under 47-0 and it was 45-3) and held off the late chargers to prevail. He'll go off in the Preakness at odds-on, I should think. I don't know how he came out of the Derby, but, assuming he's okay, I'll give him an 80% chance to win the Preakness at 1 &3/16ths miles. The Belmont is the tough one as (A) it's a mile and a half, (B) it's his third race in 5 weeks, (C) some fresher challengers could enter (Derby runners who skip the Preakness or completely new names). Let's assume Justify wins the Preakness, maybe in hand, and comes out of it okay. I'd then give him a 50% chance to win the Belmont. So, combine those two races and I'd say right now he has a 40% chance now to be the next Triple Crown winner. He's quite a horse. Thank you, Ky always the odds man,(not odd man) |
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Post by sader81 on May 6, 2018 11:54:08 GMT -5
Was at the race yesterday, as a pal of mine has a piece of My Boy Jack. Was in TN on a long planned golf trip, and broke away and drove to Louisville to hang with my old buddy. We were treated like celebrities - police escort in, valet parking, clubhouse seats; a once in a lifetime opportunity for an old degenerate horse fan like me! Jack was fit and ready, started to make a move from last toward the rail at the top of the stretch and was cut off, twice, and had to swing wide, made a valiant run, but had too much ground to make up and finished 5th.
While I bet and lost a bundle on the race, I was playing with house money, as I hit a couple decent exactas and tris earlier. It was a great, memorable day!!
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Post by rgs318 on May 6, 2018 12:04:23 GMT -5
sader81...sounds like a great day. Glad you enjoyed it (and were out of the rain). |
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on May 6, 2018 22:31:23 GMT -5
Not to prolong a thread I have little personal interest in but was curious that if this was just horses running around in an oval by themselves, I am not sure how many fans would watch this or any horse race. Soooo, what about the jockeys? I assume they do more than just sit atop a horse as it runs the course. How about the human element? Or is a jockey like a basketball coach (or at least what some people think), that is, his main job is not to screw up a superior player, or horse in this case? When you bettors are figuring on who to put your money on, how much do you factor in the jockey? OK, carry on. The horse is the overwhelming majority of the equation, but jockeys are still important. When you figure that many, many races are decided by a length or less, if a jockey can make a differences of even a few lengths it would be the difference between winning and losing. Great jockeys have talent in many areas: following the directions of the trainer on how to run the race (e.g. go to the lead, or press the pace, etc), seeing potential trouble (e.g. might get pinned in behind a wall of horses) and avoiding it (Pat Day was great at this), knowing how much gas is in the tank and making the move at the right time, getting the horse to "rate"/relax when required, getting the horse to run its fastest in the final push for the finish, etc. Even the greatest jockey (e.g. the retired Jerry Bailey) can't get an allowance horse to beat stakes runners very often, but jockeys do make a difference and that's why Pletcher gives John Velazquez first call and why other great riders- Castellano, Ortiz brothers, Gary Stevens, Mike Smith command top dollar and get flown across the country to ride horses. |
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Post by HCFC45 on May 7, 2018 6:17:57 GMT -5
KY - how about the superfecta that paid out 74,919 on a $1 bet during the pre races yesterday ? That was a tremendous payoff there in the Pat Day Mile, much, much higher than I've ever got on a Superfecta. My best was about $17,000 (for $2) in a lark of a group bet many years ago. If you're interested in some racetrack math, read on----- Just going by the math in the Win Odds, I calculate that the chances of that order of finish in the Pat Day Mile were about 347,000 to 1. However, I'll guess that the very few people with a winning ticket will not be unhappy with their return. Clearly bettors hit the "All" button in a number of positions to hit that Super. That happens more in the 3rd and 4th position than in first and second. Maybe some bettors thought Funny Duck, who had about 2.0% of the win pool, had potential and gave him 4% of the first position on Super tickets. New York Central was 2.6% in the win pool, but, with some folks hitting "all", may have had 6% of second position in supers. Givemeaminit had 3.6% of the win pool but with "all" kicking in big-time in third position may have had 9% in the third position---you get the idea. It seems unlikely that many winners had these four in a big box (e.g. "boxing" 6 horses costs $360 for $1 and 7 cost $840) because the top three betting choices finished 8th, 9th, 10th and would have been included in most boxes, thus making it unlikely that the other runners included would have been these four. In contrast, our "syndicate" hit the Oaks superfecta 3 times @ $1,387 and I calculate that the odds of the exact finish were 1,171 to 1, so we got a "premium" over what the math suggested, even before the "takeout" of 25% by the track. We put in three tickets and hit them all--two were "double keys" and the last was a tight spread. I don't typically use boxes. I wonder how much "racetrack math" this woman did in placing an $18.00 bet on a pick 5 to win $1.2 million! ! www.cbsnews.com/news/kentucky-derby-texas-woman-wins-1-2-million-on-18-dollar-bet-that-included-run-for-roses/ |
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Post by HCFC45 on May 7, 2018 6:21:05 GMT -5
Was at the race yesterday, as a pal of mine has a piece of My Boy Jack. Was in TN on a long planned golf trip, and broke away and drove to Louisville to hang with my old buddy. We were treated like celebrities - police escort in, valet parking, clubhouse seats; a once in a lifetime opportunity for an old degenerate horse fan like me! Jack was fit and ready, started to make a move from last toward the rail at the top of the stretch and was cut off, twice, and had to swing wide, made a valiant run, but had too much ground to make up and finished 5th. While I bet and lost a bundle on the race, I was playing with house money, as I hit a couple decent exactas and tris earlier. It was a great, memorable day!! Good for you! Fantastic! Love to hear great stories like this! ! |
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Post by timholycross on May 7, 2018 8:54:24 GMT -5
Someone I talked to Friday night was going to go but the trip fell through at the last moment. He knew the owner of Instilled Regard who went off at 85-1...and finished fourth! Came from way,way back and looked like he had a lot left in the tank...a lot more goes into this, like track conditions, etc...but on the surface one would think he'd do well in the Belmont for sure, it being a much longer race.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on May 7, 2018 9:13:45 GMT -5
Someone I talked to Friday night was going to go but the trip fell through at the last moment. He knew the owner of Instilled Regard who went off at 85-1...and finished fourth! Came from way,way back and looked like he had a lot left in the tank...a lot more goes into this, like track conditions, etc...but on the surface one would think he'd do well in the Belmont for sure, it being a much longer race. I dismissed Instilled Regard out of hand and he had no support from anyone I know. His sire Arch is a great stamina influence, but his dam-sire Forestry is strictly sprint-oriented, so I crossed him off my list. Looks like the sire's genetics came through on Saturday |
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Post by sader1970 on May 8, 2018 14:24:17 GMT -5
Coming in 4th is a “close but no cigar” category or a “moral victory,” right?
Is not the payout the same for 4th as 8th - $0?
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on May 8, 2018 15:30:38 GMT -5
Coming in 4th is a “close but no cigar” category or a “moral victory,” right? Is not the payout the same for 4th as 8th - $0? No-- two different issues: "In the money" means finishing 1st, 2nd, 3rd as far as bettors go. For the owners, however, most races pay through the first five places and some stakes pay all finishers. In a typical race the purse could be divided 62-20-10-5-3. In this 144th Kentucky Derby the 4th place horse's owner got $100,000. |
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Post by sader1970 on May 8, 2018 17:54:35 GMT -5
Ahh. This is why I keep reading Crossports despite the occasional frustration with various elements of Holy Cross athletics . . . . the education one gets on subjects both important and arcane. Thanks, KY!
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Post by cmo on May 8, 2018 17:55:41 GMT -5
Plus it was important for those that had the superfecta.
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Post by timholycross on May 9, 2018 15:06:08 GMT -5
How long has it been since they did away with the "field" bet? Used to be that the last half dozen or so longshots were, for wagering purposes, considered one entry as the tote machines (there's a phrase you might not hear any more) only allowed for 12 (or was it 15) entries. You used to be able to bet on all the long,long longshots with one wager.
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