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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Aug 25, 2018 22:48:49 GMT -5
The "Chesney Era" begins next Saturday against long-time rival Colgate. We then face one of our toughest schedules in decades. What is your prediction for the number of regular season games we will win? I've used the same grouping we used last season
NOTE: Please vote for the number of games you believe we will win even if you disagree with the commentary next to each selection. "Ho-Hum" is probably not an apt descriptor if we have a 5 win season.....
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Post by A Clock Tower Purple on Aug 25, 2018 23:07:52 GMT -5
5 wins against this year's sked would be impressive. I'll say 4.
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Post by sader1970 on Aug 26, 2018 6:02:19 GMT -5
I previously opined 5 or 6. So, for this poll, I went with the higher, more optimistic, number.
As said and implied above, if we win 3 or 4, you might as well not have built the Luth or brought in Chesney and stayed with Tom Gilmore.
While it took TG a few years to turn around the program from his predecessor, I believe TG had been bringing in better quality recruits with the promise of LAC his last couple of years and Bob Chesney has had more to work with coming in than TG. But, that is offset by a much tougher schedule . . . . MUCH tougher. We have to win all the games that aren't sure losers on paper and many of the toss-ups to have a decent season record.
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Post by efg72 on Aug 26, 2018 7:07:10 GMT -5
Going with 6 wins -glass full guy
Key to winning 5+ games this season is for . defense and special teams play at a very high level . offense doesn’t turn the ball over . limit injuries to the O line . level of enthusiasm stays high . players believe they are getting better each day . staff continues to promote a winning attitude
Many variables for certain, but possible. Of course they can do all of the above and fall short but still have a good season as they lay the foundation for the future
Looking forward to a season filled with interesting story lines and some Ws
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Post by hcpride on Aug 26, 2018 8:04:22 GMT -5
Very optimistic better days are ahead. A better record next year? Doubtful.
Predicting 4 wins (as I did last year). First 3 games are likely losses. W's in the remaining 8 are likely Bucknell, Laffy, and Georgetown barring significant injuries. Fordham is key for our 4th victory.
Rebuilding after back-to-back 4-7 seasons given our large graduating class (including veteran and accomplished QB Peter Pujols) will be challenging enough.
(Of course they'll possibly be an upset in our favor [UNH last year] and possibly an upset not in our favor [Laffy last year] and the usual close games [W's and L's] but 4 is the W number I keep seeing)
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Post by hc6774 on Aug 26, 2018 8:52:32 GMT -5
I voted 4/5 but not 'ho-hum'... in the first games I looking for organization on the sidelines as well the play on the field... on the field I expect to see a lot of rotation in the O & D fronts... later in the season not so much... QB???
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Post by fittonsfury on Aug 26, 2018 12:09:55 GMT -5
W vs. Colgate (There's good energy there, could catch them sleeping) L vs. BC (wish it wasn't so) W vs. Yale (we should have beaten them last year, and it's a home game) W vs. Dartmouth (again, should have won last year, that was bad play calling on TG's part) W vs. Bucknell L vs. NH (They'll be out for blood) W vs. Harvard (Though it'll be tough) L vs. Lehigh (Always a good team, who will be prepared at that point) W vs. Lafayette W vs. Fordham (Their running back has moved on) W vs. Georgetown (Only non-scholarship program in the league... they stink)
8-3... potentially close to the top, but likely not quite good enough this year. There's good progress being made though, and a good vibe around a team that was always talented and just needed proper motivation, which the old regime didn't give them.
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Post by hc87 on Aug 26, 2018 12:16:29 GMT -5
I'm thinking 5...4-2 in PL, 1-4 OOC
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Post by sader1970 on Aug 26, 2018 12:48:11 GMT -5
Good glass is 1/4 full thinking, fitton.
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Post by fittonsfury on Aug 26, 2018 13:06:51 GMT -5
Good glass is 1/4 full thinking, fitton. I think we pretty much agree on the potential of the team, sader, just a few points here and there making the difference on the W/L record. Let's hope I'm right.
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Post by rgs318 on Aug 26, 2018 15:29:15 GMT -5
I voted 4/5 but not 'ho-hum'... in the first games I looking for organization on the sidelines as well the play on the field... on the field I expect to see a lot of rotation in the O & D fronts... later in the season not so much... QB??? I agree with the 4 or 5 (I predict 5 wins)...and I agree that such a record would not necessarily be "ho-hum" in any case.
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Post by crusader12 on Aug 28, 2018 16:01:31 GMT -5
Realistically I'm thinking 3-8
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Post by nycrusader2010 on Aug 28, 2018 20:39:21 GMT -5
W vs. Colgate (There's good energy there, could catch them sleeping) L vs. BC (wish it wasn't so) W vs. Yale (we should have beaten them last year, and it's a home game) W vs. Dartmouth (again, should have won last year, that was bad play calling on TG's part) W vs. Bucknell L vs. NH (They'll be out for blood) W vs. Harvard (Though it'll be tough) L vs. Lehigh (Always a good team, who will be prepared at that point) W vs. Lafayette W vs. Fordham (Their running back has moved on) W vs. Georgetown (Only non-scholarship program in the league... they stink) 8-3... potentially close to the top, but likely not quite good enough this year. There's good progress being made though, and a good vibe around a team that was always talented and just needed proper motivation, which the old regime didn't give them. I'll take wins over Harvard, Yale and Dartmouth! Though to say we should've beaten Yale last year is quite a stretch. We lost 39-0 and it should've been 60-0. The Eli could have competed with anyone in FCS outside of the Top 5.
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Aug 31, 2018 10:17:46 GMT -5
Five, one OOC, four in the PL.
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Post by sader81 on Aug 31, 2018 11:07:19 GMT -5
Just the change in coaching staff is worth three wins. They will win 7, maybe eight!
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Post by dadominate on Aug 31, 2018 13:14:04 GMT -5
i see an all things considered impressive 5-6 this year, with better days (and records) to come in the near future.
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Post by rickii on Aug 31, 2018 13:59:24 GMT -5
I previously opined 5 or 6. So, for this poll, I went with the higher, more optimistic, number. As said and implied above, if we win 3 or 4, you might as well not have built the Luth or brought in Chesney and stayed with Tom Gilmore. While it took TG a few years to turn around the program from his predecessor, I believe TG had been bringing in better quality recruits with the promise of LAC his last couple of years and Bob Chesney has had more to work with coming in than TG. But, that is offset by a much tougher schedule . . . . MUCH tougher. We have to win all the games that aren't sure losers on paper and many of the toss-ups to have a decent season record. Possibly....
I think this frosh class was mostly recruited by Gilmore but Chesney did succeed in adding 5-6 kids of his own....some of whom appear to be gems.
AIR, a lot of frosh on the 2-deep but not many sophs.
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Post by sader1970 on Aug 31, 2018 15:34:00 GMT -5
Well, here's the actual numbers on the 2-deep as of 8/27/18:
On offense & defense: 9 sophomores 8 freshmen
On special teams, Ng is on 3 times for PK, back-up punter and back-up kick off and there is a freshman back-up long snapper. Ng is the only starter in the primary position among freshmen. There are 3 sophomores who are starters at left tackle, center and cornerback.
So, while I am very gratified to see so many freshmen on the 2-deep, I stand by my earlier post.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Aug 31, 2018 23:18:09 GMT -5
I did my customary analysis, figuring the % chance of winning each game from a low of a 5% chance of beating bc to a high of a 90% chance of beating Georgetown in DC. This is the brilliant method that led me to predict 7 wins last season...… I'm going with 5 wins for the Crusaders in this regular season against a tough schedule. If the Chesney Effect is as strong and positive as many of us hope we could see a winning season. We could lose the first three games of the season and yet still end up doing well as three of our four toughest games start the year.
I apologize again for making "Ho Hum" the copy for 4 or 5 Wins. I don't think anyone would consider 5 wins to be a ho hum season for us.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Aug 31, 2018 23:21:08 GMT -5
Based on our first 48 entrants, the current pari-mutuel odds for our selections, allowing for a 16% takeout for the state, owners, and betting agency, come back as follows:
10 or 11= 19 to 1 8 or 9= 38 to 1 6 or 7 = 6 to 5 4 or 5= 3 to 5, a very strong favorite 3 or fewer= 13 to 1
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Sept 1, 2018 7:41:12 GMT -5
The poll locks at 1:00 PM, so get your prediction in before then to set yourself up for an "I told you so" at season's end.
I believe we had 37 predictors last year--maybe the greater participation this year is an indicator of increased Crossports poster interest in the program....
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Post by Deleted on Sept 3, 2018 13:43:59 GMT -5
The upperclassmen have had an issue with "bouncing back" from tough losses, so it will be interesting to see how the handle Boston College followed by Yale. I see 3-4 wins this year given the current production at the QB position. I love our former player coaches (Chris Smith, Anthony DiMichele, and Ari Confessor) and just wish they had the ability to suit up vs the tougher opponents this year.
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Post by CHC8485 on Oct 13, 2018 9:14:08 GMT -5
Just a bump for this thread to remind folks that the pre-season predictions/expectations of almost 60% of those who voted is still capable of being achieved or exceeded. And I’d wager most people looking at the schedule expected 60% - 80% of their predicted wins to come in the final 4 games.
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Post by sader1970 on Oct 13, 2018 10:08:56 GMT -5
OMG, re: Harvard game. See my prediction above. Just call me Nostradamus or Kresgan (sp?)😂
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Oct 13, 2018 10:42:43 GMT -5
OMG, re: Harvard game. See my prediction above. Just call me Nostradamus or Kresgan (sp?)😂 Kreskin is the great mentalist (saw him at HC and he was sensational) while Kresge is the old 5 & 10 cent store. It looks like you have conflated the two......
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