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Post by bison137 on Dec 31, 2018 17:00:00 GMT -5
Just to stir it up as 2018 comes to a close: Data, datum, stats, etc. . . . . . baloney. Game is won or lost on the court. Lots of "pseudo-science" but too many variables for anyone or any organization to accurately and consistently predict outcomes. Discuss. [Have I got you math majors' juices flowing yet?] Clearly no-one can accurately predict every game, although Pomeroy's accuracy rate is very good. More importantly, his predictions give a good idea about how impressive a win was or whether a given result was a major upset. Way too many people judge outcomes based on the team's names or W-L records.
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Post by Non Alum Dave on Dec 31, 2018 18:09:16 GMT -5
I just don't think there's as much separation between all these teams as the rankings suggest, imho. I don't feel like team number 220 losing to team 270 is this big upset, for example.
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Post by efg72 on Dec 31, 2018 18:54:06 GMT -5
After the top 15 or so let’s roll the ball out and play. Might not win but certainly can compete. Next two years will expect to win more than we lose against the top 100
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Dec 31, 2018 20:00:27 GMT -5
I just don't think there's as much separation between all these teams as the rankings suggest, imho. I don't feel like team number 220 losing to team 270 is this big upset, for example. Great point, Dave. I agree 100%. Let's look at those two specific teams as an example; #220 Iona, per KenPom is -5.45 adjusted efficiency margin. suggesting that per 100 possessions Iona would score 5.45 points fewer than the average opponent #270 Tulane is -8.19 adjusted efficiency margin, suggesting that Tulane is 2.74 points worse than Iona per 100 possessions. So in a typical game of 70 possessions between #220 and #270 on a neutral court the teams are 2 points apart. So I'd predict Iona to win on that court but I'd expect if they played 100 times that Iona would win maybe 55 times. The randomness of basketball (exemplified by "shots falling or not falling") is a huge factor in these games between teams close in ability and even in games between #100 and #200 (10 point difference per 100 possessions). Against #221 Canisius JG went 1-8 on three point shots and I can guarantee that he had not forgotten how to shoot. Against #220 Iona he went 4 for 5 and I guarantee that he has not become the greatest shooter in history. Game predictions are based on probabilities and games are affected by randomness just as cards and dice are. In the long run, the better teams prevail. One game is not the long run.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Dec 31, 2018 20:14:34 GMT -5
After the top 15 or so let’s roll the ball out and play. Might not win but certainly can compete. Next two years will expect to win more than we lose against the top 100
I love your optimism but I think we'd have to be a Top 25 team to win half our games against the top 100. Take one of the best HC teams of this millennium, the 25-7 Ralph Willard 2004-2005 team. KenPom (offensive and defensive efficiency) had the team at #66 and Sagarin (wins and losses and point margins) had the team at #56. That team went 3-6 against teams in the top 100. The 25-5 2002-2003 team (# 66 KenPom, #69 Sagarin) went 1-2 against top 100 teams. Finally, the 20-12 2005-2006 team (#129 KenPom, #122 Sagarin) went 0-7 against Top 100 teams.
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Post by hchoops on Dec 31, 2018 21:14:13 GMT -5
A beloved fixture of those ‘05 and ‘06 teams was at the game yesterday, the very loyal Crusader Torey T.
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Post by lou on Dec 31, 2018 21:19:19 GMT -5
A beloved fixture of those ‘05 and ‘06 teams was at the game yesterday, the very loyal Crusader Torey T. About to begin his 13th year as a pro, in Africa this year, after playing all over Europe
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Post by rgs318 on Dec 31, 2018 21:23:03 GMT -5
I would love to hear his opinion of this year's team.
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Post by hchoops on Dec 31, 2018 21:30:11 GMT -5
Torey was very impressed by yesterday’s performance, commenting on the skill, confidence and selflessness displayed.
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Post by efg72 on Dec 31, 2018 21:47:42 GMT -5
After the top 15 or so let’s roll the ball out and play. Might not win but certainly can compete. Next two years will expect to win more than we lose against the top 100
I love your optimism but I think we'd have to be a Top 25 team to win half our games against the top 100. Take one of the best HC teams of this millennium, the 25-7 Ralph Willard 2004-2005 team. KenPom (offensive and defensive efficiency) had the team at #66 and Sagarin (wins and losses and point margins) had the team at #56. That team went 3-6 against teams in the top 100. The 25-5 2002-2003 team (# 66 KenPom, #69 Sagarin) went 1-2 against top 100 teams. Finally, the 20-12 2005-2006 team (#129 KenPom, #122 Sagarin) went 0-7 against Top 100 teams. After the top 25 the big difference is strength and quickness. They key for us is to develop a program that reloads each year while the individual players we have mature. Some will say we haven’t beaten a decent team this year, which may or may not be true, but in years past many of the Ws the team achieved would have been Ls -so we clearly are headed in the right direction. If by the top 100 we schedule all top 30-50 programs it very well might be difficult to win more than we lose, however, if the scheduling gods find balance this group will do just fine
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Post by hchoops on Dec 31, 2018 22:22:54 GMT -5
In the Big East opener, Creighton won at PC, 79-68
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Post by possum on Jan 1, 2019 11:00:14 GMT -5
EFG it's a very high bar to think we or the rest of the PL could win half our games against the top 100, Bucknell the leagues flagship program with three 1st team all league players was 1-4 last year and 1-3 the previous year against top 100 competition if you expand it out to top 150 they were 2-6 and 3-5.
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Post by Non Alum Dave on Feb 9, 2019 5:25:58 GMT -5
For those who have interest in games outside of the power conferences (crazy as that might be), Harvard beat Columbia in a 3OT thriller 98-95. Some incredible shots in the endgame by both teams. Aiken back playing for Harvard; had I believe 42 points. For those with ESPN-+, check out the end of regulation and OTs.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Feb 13, 2019 11:26:30 GMT -5
Louisville, at home, led Duke 59-36 with 10 minutes to play and could not hold on for the win. Duke outscored The Ville 35-10 to finish
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Post by sader1970 on Feb 13, 2019 11:48:59 GMT -5
Oh, shoot. I wanted both teams to lose . . . . so disappointed.
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Post by bringbackcaro on Feb 13, 2019 11:53:49 GMT -5
Louisville, at home, led Duke 59-36 with 10 minutes to play and could not hold on for the win. Duke outscored The Ville 35-10 to finish Chris Mack is a very good recruiter and a very overrated coach, with a reputation that has been mostly fueled by media members (primarily Jeff Goodman) who he has cozied up with. He is a major downgrade from Rick Pitino in terms of actual coaching.
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Feb 13, 2019 12:00:50 GMT -5
Louisville, at home, led Duke 59-36 with 10 minutes to play and could not hold on for the win. Duke outscored The Ville 35-10 to finish Chris Mack is a very good recruiter and a very overrated coach, with a reputation that has been mostly fueled by media members (primarily Jeff Goodman) who he has cozied up with. He is a major downgrade from Rick Pitino in terms of actual coaching. Taking Xavier to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament in four of nine years is pretty damn good. Not many other coaches can say that.
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Post by bringbackcaro on Feb 13, 2019 12:39:33 GMT -5
Chris Mack is a very good recruiter and a very overrated coach, with a reputation that has been mostly fueled by media members (primarily Jeff Goodman) who he has cozied up with. He is a major downgrade from Rick Pitino in terms of actual coaching. Taking Xavier to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament in four of nine years is pretty damn good. Not many other coaches can say that. Thad Matta did it three times in three years. Sean Miller did it two times in five years. So, in total it happened 5 times in the 8 years prior to Mack's arrival, and 5 times in the 9 years that he was there. He won at a lower clip (.689) than each of the three guys before him -- Miller (.719), Matta (.772), and Prosser (.695). Mack did a pretty nice job with the program that the guys before him built, but he is far more like Tommy Amaker (much better recruiter than coach) than a true elite coach.
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Post by sader1970 on Feb 13, 2019 12:47:09 GMT -5
Sort of like Milan Brown, great recruiter but not so much game coach. And 3. . . . 2 . . . . 1 . . . .
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Post by timholycross on Feb 13, 2019 15:58:58 GMT -5
I never switched back to that Duke game, figured Louisville had it easily. Plus the Celtics game I was watching was one of the better ones this season; no 15 point runs by one team followed by a 15 point run by the other team...this one was pretty much a 3 or less possession game the entire second half.
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Post by cmo on Feb 15, 2019 1:12:45 GMT -5
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Post by WorcesterGray on Feb 15, 2019 7:00:44 GMT -5
Hahn hit a shot at the buzzer last week vs. South Dakota to send the game into overtime (where UNO won), beat N. Dakota with a three in the waning seconds a few weeks ago.
Omaha came from sixteen down in the second half. Now 9-2 in conference, and definitely in contention for the Summit League title.
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Post by sader1970 on Feb 15, 2019 7:36:14 GMT -5
Nah, we don't miss him.
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Post by rgs318 on Feb 15, 2019 7:37:53 GMT -5
Correct.
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Post by trimster on Feb 15, 2019 7:43:02 GMT -5
Sort of like Milan Brown, great recruiter but not so much game coach. And 3. . . . 2 . . . . 1 . . . . Whoever said M Brown was a great recruiter?
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