|
Post by timholycross on Nov 15, 2018 10:45:02 GMT -5
Whearty due to injury also got a fifth year. HC's had a lot of big men over the years that would have had much better overall careers if they had another year to develop (physically and skills-wise).
|
|
|
Post by KY Crusader 75 on Nov 15, 2018 10:45:10 GMT -5
That group should really be thought of as 1 frosh, 2 juniors and 2 seniors. Redshirt players can be a huge addition and it is not really accurate to think of them as 2 sophs and 1 junior. That is one reason why I wrote it that way: "Friday's game v SBU will show us how we do v an AE team that starts 1 frosh, 2 sophs (redshirts), 1 junior (redshirt) , and 1 senior point guard."
But, when we talk about our youngish starting five and speculatively declare they will improve relative to our competition because they are youngish (a dubious proposition at best ), one has to remember that the competition also has players with plenty of time to improve. SBU is one such opponent.
Yes, but many other teams will be replacing experienced seniors with untested freshmen or sophomores. HC will lose JF, our best player, but may see many other players improve.
|
|
|
Post by bringbackcaro on Nov 15, 2018 13:14:19 GMT -5
Two games is too small of a sample to make the determination anyway. In general, he does things on defense no one else on HC (or the PL for that matter) can do. He can rebound with anyone, something HC struggles with as a team. That's why I think this is the year to win. I think a few posters don't realize that we are not likely to see a player like JF recruited or emerge in the next few years at Holy Cross. Instead of focusing on the belief that we start many sophomores and therefore our team will improve over the next two years relative to our competition (a dubious proposition to start with BTW), those same folks might want to gauge the dramatic impact of JF's graduation. This is the year to win. Exactly. The total lack of depth behind Floyd with players who can rebound/defend the paint on this roster is inexcusable. Yet, somehow we managed to make it worse next year by signing 3 more wing players and no bigs. We have one good rebounder right now. Next year, we may just have zero. Incredible.
|
|
|
Post by lou on Nov 15, 2018 13:53:45 GMT -5
Rebounds so far this season Jehyve 14 Grandy 15 Butler 16
|
|
|
Post by bringbackcaro on Nov 15, 2018 14:10:38 GMT -5
Rebounds so far this season Jehyve 14 Grandy 15 Butler 16 Is your point that those two are on the same level as Floyd, who is occupying all of defensive bigs' attention on the glass? Having Floyd in there occupying space and attention is freeing up others to pick up loose rebounds. Neither of those guys have the size (weight for Grandison) or ability to rebound in the paint right now, and if the idea is that we will be OK in rebounding going forward without Floyd because we have them, we will be in for some loooong nights.
|
|
|
Post by possum on Nov 15, 2018 14:13:44 GMT -5
Depth in general is a question. So far we have basically played with the five sophomores, Floyd and Benzan. Copeland has had a few minutes here and there and has not shown the improvement Carmody talked about. I assume Zignorski will get some minutes when healthy but the freshmen have not played at all and while Verbeek might be a project I would have thought Hargis would be in the rotation. As was the case two years ago every team other than us in the PL have freshmen in their rotation and it would seem the OOC schedule is the time play these guys to see what you've got.
|
|
|
Post by KY Crusader 75 on Nov 15, 2018 14:21:25 GMT -5
I think a few posters don't realize that we are not likely to see a player like JF recruited or emerge in the next few years at Holy Cross. Instead of focusing on the belief that we start many sophomores and therefore our team will improve over the next two years relative to our competition (a dubious proposition to start with BTW), those same folks might want to gauge the dramatic impact of JF's graduation. This is the year to win. Exactly. The total lack of depth behind Floyd with players who can rebound/defend the paint on this roster is inexcusable. Yet, somehow we managed to make it worse next year by signing 3 more wing players and no bigs. We have one good rebounder right now. Next year, we may just have zero. Incredible. Defensive Rebound Percentage-Last Season Per KenPom (Included top 5, not just paint defenders) 18.4= Jehyve Floyd 17.2= Matt Faw' 16.6= Jacob Grandison 14.1= Connor Niego 13.3= Austin Butler Def Reb % This Season (only 3 games played-small sample) 19.8= Jehyve Floyd 19.2= Matt Faw 17.9= Jacob Grandison 13.8= Austin Butler 11.9= Connor Niego So JF has the best numbers--no surprise--but it's not like Matt Faw and Jacob Grandison appear to be light years behind him when it comes to rebounding. I am not so astute an observer that I can write off Blake Verbeek after his three minutes of action to date...
|
|
|
Post by hchoops on Nov 15, 2018 14:25:26 GMT -5
Possum, Niego played little early last season. Faw’s minutes all year were only as a back up to Jehyve. They are continuing to progress this season. Each player develops at his own rate
|
|
|
Post by WorcesterGray on Nov 15, 2018 14:25:29 GMT -5
Rebounds so far this season Jehyve 14 Grandy 15 Butler 16 Team Rebounding (Rank):
DR% 72.8 (176th) OR% 21.2 (265th)
Total Rebound % 46.9 (227th)
The DR ranking is about average - if it held up, it would be the third best achieved by a Carmody team this century. The OR% is, unsurprisingly, well below average (a function of approach), and the total rebounding rank puts HC in the bottom third of D1. Small sample size, of course - larger samples are not encouraging.
HC Total Rebound % (Rank)
17-18. 45.0 (336) 16-17. 42.8 (351) 15-16. 45.6 (327)
|
|
|
Post by hcpride on Nov 15, 2018 14:40:55 GMT -5
That is one reason why I wrote it that way: "Friday's game v SBU will show us how we do v an AE team that starts 1 frosh, 2 sophs (redshirts), 1 junior (redshirt) , and 1 senior point guard."
But, when we talk about our youngish starting five and speculatively declare they will improve relative to our competition because they are youngish (a dubious proposition at best ), one has to remember that the competition also has players with plenty of time to improve. SBU is one such opponent.
Yes, but many other teams will be replacing experienced seniors with untested freshmen or sophomores. HC will lose JF, our best player, but may see many other players improve. No doubt teams will have starting seniors graduate at the end of this year and those players will be replaced by kids better, worse, or about the same. When there are a group of excellent frosh who get significant playing time on a winning D-1 team, it is cause for optimism when contemplating the next year. A group of frosh playing on a not-so-good (12-19) team is not necessarily cause for great optimism. Of course they'll generally somewhat improve...but will they improve relative to their competition?
|
|
|
Post by bringbackcaro on Nov 15, 2018 14:44:14 GMT -5
Exactly. The total lack of depth behind Floyd with players who can rebound/defend the paint on this roster is inexcusable. Yet, somehow we managed to make it worse next year by signing 3 more wing players and no bigs. We have one good rebounder right now. Next year, we may just have zero. Incredible. Defensive Rebound Percentage-Last Season Per KenPom (Included top 5, not just paint defenders) 18.4= Jehyve Floyd 17.2= Matt Faw' 16.6= Jacob Grandison 14.1= Connor Niego 13.3= Austin Butler Def Reb % This Season (only 3 games played-small sample) 19.8= Jehyve Floyd 19.2= Matt Faw 17.9= Jacob Grandison 13.8= Austin Butler 11.9= Connor Niego So JF has the best numbers--no surprise--but it's not like Matt Faw and Jacob Grandison appear to be light years behind him when it comes to rebounding. I am not so astute an observer that I can write off Blake Verbeek after his three minutes of action to date... The issue will be when Faw and Grandison become our primary rebounders, and don't have Floyd to take up attention from the opponents best/biggest inside players. Unless Faw can drastically improve his agility/foot work or Grandison puts on a ton of weight/muscle, neither appears to be positioned to step into Floyd's role as the primary inside player next year. At 6'10 200 LBs (if you trust the roster), Verbeek would just get pushed around the ring by Division 1 post players. Hope he's eating 8 meals a day in Kimball.
|
|
|
Post by ericobeyyourthirst on Nov 15, 2018 15:13:57 GMT -5
Floyd's played about 20 min each the past two games, how has the rebounding been during that sample size?
|
|
|
Post by KY Crusader 75 on Nov 15, 2018 15:52:54 GMT -5
Floyd's played about 20 min each the past two games, how has the rebounding been during that sample size? See my note five posts North of yours. In this small sample Matt Faw has grabbed about the same percentage of missed opponent shots as JF has snared when he was on the court. As far as how the team has done rebounding I can't say.
|
|
|
Post by WorcesterGray on Nov 15, 2018 16:06:45 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by ericobeyyourthirst on Nov 15, 2018 16:37:04 GMT -5
Floyd's played about 20 min each the past two games, how has the rebounding been during that sample size? See my note five posts North of yours. In this small sample Matt Faw has grabbed about the same percentage of missed opponent shots as JF has snared when he was on the court. As far as how the team has done rebounding I can't say. Yes - but someone could make the argument that Faw's rebounding numbers are better because of JF on the court. I want to know what it looks like w/o JF on the court. Does this metric factor in that consideration?
|
|
|
Post by sonsofspitler on Nov 15, 2018 20:56:31 GMT -5
The stat we need for this debate is rebounding plus/minus for players on the court. I have never seen this stat tracked anywhere but would love to see it to illustrate this point.
Regardless of the stat, I think it's only fair and intuitive that our inside game (and particularly our interior D) largely begins and ends wiyh Jehyve, and as bullish as I am with Faw and Niego they are stretch fours and not interior forwards.
Picture our 2006-2007 team, but replace Clifford with a second AVB. That's what we are looking at next year. Jack Stevens was supposed to help fill that void. And as pumped as I am for these incoming players I am shocked that we didn't bring aboard an interior post player with this class.
|
|
|
Post by bringbackcaro on Nov 15, 2018 21:14:28 GMT -5
The stat we need for this debate is rebounding plus/minus for players on the court. I have never seen this stat tracked anywhere but would love to see it to illustrate this point. Regardless of the stat, I think it's only fair and intuitive that our inside game (and particularly our interior D) largely begins and ends wiyh Jehyve, and as bullish as I am with Faw and Niego they are stretch fours and not interior forwards. Picture our 2006-2007 team, but replace Clifford with a second AVB. That's what we are looking at next year. Jack Stevens was supposed to help fill that void. And as pumped as I am for these incoming players I am shocked that we didn't bring aboard an interior post player with this class. Oh man, I would kill for one or two AVB’s on the roster right now. Faw and Niego can shoot from the perimeter like AVB, but they have a ways to go to get to AVB’s level inside the 3-point line.
|
|
|
Post by nhteamer on Nov 18, 2018 17:30:20 GMT -5
That is a nice WIN I like that word Congratulations (Yup, after every win)
|
|
|
Post by DiMarz on Nov 18, 2018 18:43:45 GMT -5
The only stat that is relevant is wins and loses....Maybe it is just me, but stats can be so deceiving, good and bad...I believe JF is having a huge impact on the offense so far and he is not scoring much!!! (but I do believe he will explode in the PL)..
I was walking around Olde Mystick Village Shopping area on Saturday with my HC hoops hat on when I got stopped by another man..He told me how lucky we were to have Coach Carm as our coach, "He is a great coach. One of the best in the country! I have made a living betting on his teams over the years!" He went on to say if there were no shot clock, HC would be able to beat teams like Providence and Michigan....(He had on a Penn sweatshirt)...
|
|
|
Post by Sons of Vaval on Nov 18, 2018 21:51:29 GMT -5
If the only stat that is relevant are wins and losses, then we are coming up well short.
*Note, I’m so pleased with the start this season through five games.
|
|
|
Post by WorcesterGray on Nov 19, 2018 6:44:47 GMT -5
Wins and losses are, indeed, what ultimately matters. Trying to understand the quantifiable events in a game that strongly influence whether a team wins or loses is a worthy study. Dean Oliver (the Bill James of advanced basketball stat analysis - Pomeroy is an Oliver disciple, btw) wrote a book entitled Basketball on Paper about fifteen years ago in which he identified "four factors" (actually, eight, since each has an offensive and defensive value) that strongly correlate with success. Brad Stevens, at Butler, was the most famous early believer in the value of such advanced stats. Most coaches now rely on them to some extent for game preparation. I'd be shocked if Carmody didn't.
Here's how Holy Cross is doing so far this year on a "four factor" basis. I looked at D1 ranking for each factor, then assigned a qualitative rating (from "Excellent" to "Poor") based on which quintile (among ~350 D1 teams) the performance falls into. I'll follow and update as the season progresses, since it interests me and may interest a few others.
Offensive Four Factors, HC Rank EFG% 155th - Average/Good TOV% 58th - Excellent OR% 249th - Fair FTA/FGA 346th - Poor
Defensive Four Factors HC Rank EFG% 172nd - Average TOV% 122nd - Good DR% 238th - Fair FTA/FGA 140th - Good
Advanced game-logs at Basketball-ref track the four factors game by game.
|
|
|
Post by KY Crusader 75 on Nov 19, 2018 8:51:51 GMT -5
Great analysis, Mr. Gray, and count me among those who will be keenly anticipating updates during the year.
|
|
|
Post by nhteamer on Dec 5, 2018 11:49:44 GMT -5
GREAT WIN
We had the better coach
|
|
|
Post by nhteamer on Dec 22, 2018 13:45:32 GMT -5
yup
W
|
|
|
Post by dadominate on Dec 22, 2018 13:50:30 GMT -5
amen, teamer. carmody has assembled a great roster that is as resilient as they come. the number of deficits we’ve overcome is impressive. also outstanding late game strategy that clearly flummoxed siena. it’s nice to be the team that consistently WINS the close games after being on the short end of the stick so often under fcmb. this is a sign of a prepared and very well-coached team.
|
|