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Post by hchoops on Nov 22, 2018 12:18:51 GMT -5
PL JF leads in blocks and in assist to turnover ratio PB is second. JF is 4th in assists per game HC has 3 in the top 8. CG is 2nf in FT%
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Nov 22, 2018 13:37:32 GMT -5
Post by rgs318 on Nov 22, 2018 13:37:32 GMT -5
All in all, very nice numbers! Keep it up guys!
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Nov 22, 2018 13:45:41 GMT -5
Biggest stat for me is the tremendous improvement in defense. If you like KenPom's analysis, you see that for the full season last year we were ranked #256 with a 108.9 defensive efficiency (measured by points per possession by opponents) while this year we are at 101.2, #155 in D-1. I believe KenPom takes the opponent's strength into account. On offense we have improved as well: #306 last year (97.5) to #177 this year (101.3). I've recapped 3 point defense after a couple of games because our improvement there has been remarkable: our opponents shot .354 last year while we have held our first 6 opponents to .294--different teams, different venues, etc: still hard to argue with those stats.
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Nov 22, 2018 16:40:26 GMT -5
Post by ts1970 on Nov 22, 2018 16:40:26 GMT -5
Very noteworthy info..........good job!
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Nov 23, 2018 0:44:25 GMT -5
Post by KY Crusader 75 on Nov 23, 2018 0:44:25 GMT -5
Here's a look at some data for the offense--some significant changes from last year in one key area: "who is taking the shots?" I have looked at this measure in the past to get a better gauge on how a player fits into the offense. The average for all players is about 10 or 11 FGA/40 minutes, with players running the spectrum from "doesn't shoot much" (some guys at 7 shots per 40) to "likes to launch", players like Robert Champion at 14+ FGA/40.
Last year our most prolific shooter was, no surprise, Austin Butler. Second, also no surprise, was Matt Faw, an exceptional shooter in my opinion. But we also saw Jehyve Floyd taking a lot more shots (10.7/40) than he had as a freshman and soph (7.0/40). Here's a comparison of this year (only 5 games) versus lasts season and note that I don't look at 2's versus 3's
Player= FGA/40 LY---FGA/40 TY
Butler= 13.6---13.4 no change in his shooting frequency Faw= 11.5----10.2 slight decline--bet it will even out with LY by year's end Floyd= 10.7----7.7 shooting a lot less--could be because he has been great at finding open teammates, going from 2.2 Assts/40 to this year's 6.1/40. Still, like to go to him more Grandison= 10.6---15.9 shooting significantly more often than last year, at a rate than even exceeds RJ Evans or Robt Champion. 3 PT pctg has improved, 2Pt % is down. Niego= 10.0----11.2 Green= 9.9---9.2 Charles= 9.8---- Benzan= 7.3----10.1 season is young, but this is a significant change
Anyhow--just trying to fill the week before the Harvard game....
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Post by Non Alum Dave on Nov 23, 2018 6:37:10 GMT -5
Thanks for posting, KY.
With JF, I wonder if the change is a result of there being more of a book out there now on his tendencies, and there is more effort to take away the low post stuff. In the high post, he proved that if you crowd him he'll get you on the blow by (not going to shoot a jumper). So, maybe he is getting enough space that it is creating all those passing opportunities.
With PB, his jumper looks a little better to me than in the past; maybe he is feeling more confident. Still, I would rather see him looking to score on the move. As for Grandi, I'm thinking the increase might just be a natural progression from the end of last year, when he started looking more and more like a lead dog (at least to me).
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Post by hchoops on Nov 23, 2018 6:53:02 GMT -5
We moved up to #1 in the nation in assists per fgm
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Post by dadominate on Nov 23, 2018 8:36:35 GMT -5
We moved up to #1 in the nation in assists per fgm thanks, hoops. this is precisely the type of *identity* for which this basketball program was in desperate need! we had a clear identity during the rw years. defend and control the boards. while some argued that our scholarship advantage was what led to our back-to-back-to-back ncaa tournament appearances, i think it was far more a factor of having a strong coach with an identity that we imposed on our opponents. as much fun as it was, we could never break out and win any of the games against better teams in the power conferences due to offensive limitations. needless to say, we had no identity during the sk and mb years. we essentially reacted (usually poorly) to the identity of our opponent, which is the primary reason why we were unsuccessful in my view, particularly in the postseason and anytime we were going up against better tactical coaches (like fran o'hanlon, who owned us during this disappointing era). fortunately, the board has evolved beyond the point where observation="hater" and we can discuss these types of things rationally. it has taken more time than any of us would have liked, but carmody clearly has brought an identity back to holy cross that features outstanding offensive ball movement and shooters at every position. the ball movement this year has been outstanding and we have seen more backdoor buckets over the first six games than probably any other ten games in the carmody tenure. it seems to me as if this young group has picked up on the intricacies and have enthusiastically bought in, which was a question mark with a few previous players. defensively, i think the match-up zone we have been utilizing with success is another wrinkle that can/will confound opponents. the 1-3-1 that led to the magical ncaa tournament run was an act of coaching brilliance that was also executed very well (by green, especially), but i like the defensive progress we have made since that approach was largely figured out and taken advantage of as it is not a reliable base defense. still like throwing it in every once in a while as our guys have the smarts to execute multiple looks and it's not something most opponents will see very often. we will never be as talented as our power conference opponents and we will not be able to beat them at their own game. we needed someone like carmody who has an approach designed to overcome those discrepancies. it's nice to see a strong identity being reestablished for the program as evidenced by this important statistic. while we may not be best in the nation at the end of the year, i have a feeling we will remain in the top 25 or so and i think there will continue to be a strong link to our ability to pass the ball effectively and winning games.
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Post by hchoops on Nov 23, 2018 8:44:36 GMT -5
Nice job, Dado, of analyzing accurately the past 15-20 years of HC hoops
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Nov 23, 2018 9:02:57 GMT -5
Here's a thought on the defensive end of the game. I turned my car radio on the other day and a UK basketball call-in show was on the air. The hosts were the play-by-play guy and the color man, the great UK star of the late 1980's, Rex Chapman. The caller asked "why don't we use a zone defense every once in a while to throw opponents off balance?" Rex's answer was that UK had so many freshmen that were used to playing man-to-man from high school and that it would be tough--would take a long time- to teach them zone. If there is some truth in that, it could be that our great improvement (to-date in this young season) in defense is because our guys have moved farther along that learning curve. They were taught the defense last year and made some progress but now it's become intuitive for them?
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Post by hchoops on Nov 23, 2018 9:08:25 GMT -5
Nice insight, Ky Not only is the matchup D a challenge to freshmen, but the Princeton offense is very different from anything that the vast majority of high schools and no grass roots program play. The growth on both sides of the court is clearly evident thus far in the season.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Nov 23, 2018 9:13:01 GMT -5
Nice job, Dado, of analyzing accurately the past 15-20 years of HC hoops Yes-- really helps us all understand the several phases of the HC basketball program for this century
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Post by dadominate on Nov 23, 2018 9:13:10 GMT -5
Here's a thought on the defensive end of the game. I turned my car radio on the other day and a UK basketball call-in show was on the air. The hosts were the play-by-play guy and the color man, the great UK star of the late 1980's, Rex Chapman. The caller asked "why don't we use a zone defense every once in a while to throw opponents off balance?" Rex's answer was that UK had so many freshmen that were used to playing man-to-man from high school and that it would be tough--would take a long time- to teach them zone. If there is some truth in that, it could be that our great improvement (to-date in this young season) in defense is because our guys have moved farther along that learning curve. They were taught the defense last year and made some progress but now it's become intuitive for them? i think you hit the nail on the head, ky. not just at holy cross, but everywhere. experience and time playing together is why gonzaga can beat duke, despite not having the likely 1 and 2 picks in the nba draft or overall talent level. we still may have some rough patches this year, but it dawned on me how easy the sophomores have made things like at times this season. and they have almost three years of perfecting this system ahead of them!!! which is why losing a shot-blocker extraordinaire in floyd and a gutsy veteran in benzan will not have the absolutely devastating effect that some have unconvincingly hypothesized. in fact, while next year could go either way and at this point i would expect a fairly similar performance (though a lot of basketball still to be played to inform that view), i fully expect us to be a far better team two years from now than we are this year. and i think we are pretty darn good this year and will compete for the pl title.
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Post by possum on Nov 23, 2018 9:47:48 GMT -5
Dado agree with most of what you said but I think you underestimate the loss of Floyd on the defensive end. Beside the obvious baskets he saves with blocks there is no stat to measure the intimidation factor he brings to anyone that ventures into the paint. We'll have to wait till next year to see how it plays out but I think despite the fact that the top 5-6 teams in the league are going to be very tough this is the year to get the PL title.
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Nov 23, 2018 10:24:02 GMT -5
Post by rgs318 on Nov 23, 2018 10:24:02 GMT -5
As to this year's competition..."The harder the battle, the sweeter the victory."
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Post by hchoops on Nov 23, 2018 10:45:44 GMT -5
I also was very concerned about our defense next year without JF. I became a bit encouraged when our defense played pretty well without him in the Michigan first half and somewhat in the PC game, in both of which he was sitting with fouls. While our D may suffer somewhat, we could be at least a slightly better offensive team with a probable 5 man who can shoot from the outside. We will most likely have 4-5 perimeter shooters on the court all the time next season making us a more difficult team to defend than this season’s squad.
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Post by Xmassader on Nov 23, 2018 11:26:42 GMT -5
hchoops Also expect that Hargis and Verbeek, with a yr. under their belts in the offense, and Lowder, Pridgen and Wade with their quickness and ability to break people down off the dribble will make HC a more versatile offensive team in ‘19-‘20, particularly at the end of the shot clock and against tough defenses. I suspect that we will have fewer 6+ minute scoring droughts like we’ve had this yr. with Michigan, Providence and Albany with that freshman to sophomore development and the 3 newcomers’ presence.
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Nov 23, 2018 11:48:26 GMT -5
Post by possum on Nov 23, 2018 11:48:26 GMT -5
Hoops I think Floyd's defensive impact is limited against power 5 opponents as he doesn't have the athleticism advantage he has against PL/mid major opponents. Just need to look at his penchant for fouling and lack of blocks against this type opponent. Will be interesting to see how he does against Harvard, UMass and URI, last year against Harvard and URI fouled out of both games and had no blocks. By the way, I think we will win at least one of these games.
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Nov 23, 2018 11:49:50 GMT -5
Post by WorcesterGray on Nov 23, 2018 11:49:50 GMT -5
Basketball-ref's view of the PL so far, based on its Simple Rating System (SRS) and NRtg (ORtg-DRtg). By both these measures, Holy Cross' defensive ranking in the conference is higher than its offensive ranking. A quick check of the last few seasons suggests a pretty high degree of correlation between NRtg and finish in the standings, fwiw. www.sports-reference.com/cbb/conferences/patriot/2019-ratings.html
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Post by ndgradbuthcfan on Nov 23, 2018 11:51:07 GMT -5
Albany Coach Brown said, in post game comments: "Holy Cross is really good", "...is a very difficult team to play" and "...we lost to a good basketball team".
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Post by hcpride on Nov 23, 2018 12:19:19 GMT -5
we still may have some rough patches this year, but it dawned on me how easy the sophomores have made things like at times this season. and they have almost three years of perfecting this system ahead of them!!! which is why losing a shot-blocker extraordinaire in floyd and a gutsy veteran in benzan will not have the absolutely devastating effect that some have unconvincingly hypothesized. in fact, while next year could go either way and at this point i would expect a fairly similar performance (though a lot of basketball still to be played to inform that view), i fully expect us to be a far better team two years from now than we are this year. and i think we are pretty darn good this year and will compete for the pl title. Let me agree and disagree. I saw absolutely no comments that we would be unable to recruit and/or develop a player like Benzan in the near term. We have players with his skills and essentially his experience already. Nobody has hypothesized regarding the irreplaceability of Benzan. I saw many comments that it is unlikely we will have a player of Floyd's current skill set on the floor for us next year. And those are very valuable skills. They can be decisive v PL- level competition. (I don't see anybody on the bench developing his size/skills and a recruit possessing what he has now would be a very difficult get for HC...). And he is not merely a 'shot blocker extraordinaire'...lest we forget that last year he averaged a team-best 12.2 points, 5.6 rebounds, 2.2 blocked shots and 0.9 steals per contest.
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Post by WorcesterGray on Nov 23, 2018 12:23:47 GMT -5
it's nice to see a strong identity being reestablished for the program as evidenced by this important statistic. while we may not be best in the nation at the end of the year, i have a feeling we will remain in the top 25 or so and i think there will continue to be a strong link to our ability to pass the ball effectively and winning games.It's something Carmody's team have always done very well. But if there's a correlation between A/FGM and W-L, I don't see it.
Carmody Team A/FGM Rank. Winning (W) or Losing (L) Season Record in parens.
17-18. 52nd (L) 16-17. 4th (L) 15-16. 16th (L)
12-13. 1st (L) 11-12. 3rd (W) 10-11. 5th (W) 09-10. 2nd (W) 08-09. 2nd (W) 07-08. 2nd (L) 06-07. 1st (L) 05-06. 1st (L) 04-05. 1st (L) 03-04. 2nd (L) 02-03 2nd (L) 01-02 3rd (W 00-01. 6th (L)
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Nov 23, 2018 12:30:46 GMT -5
Post by hchoops on Nov 23, 2018 12:30:46 GMT -5
The assist per FGM does not solely guarantee a winning season. There are many factors that contribute to wins and losses, but passing the ball unselfishly clearly is a positive stat that contributes to winning basketball. Is there any single stat that guarantees wins ? Maybe point differential, but I mean other than team point stats.
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Post by WorcesterGray on Nov 23, 2018 12:44:17 GMT -5
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Nov 23, 2018 13:13:00 GMT -5
via mobile
rgs318 likes this
Post by Non Alum Dave on Nov 23, 2018 13:13:00 GMT -5
Take care of the ball, and hit at least 38 percent of your 3's.....
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