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Post by bringbackcaro on Jan 2, 2019 15:38:15 GMT -5
With PL play starting tomorrow, I was curious to see what people's expectations were for how HC should far against league foes.
The League Top 3 (Lehigh, Bucknell, HC) - Softer than most years. --Bucknell has the most impressive resume of wins for the PL (4 vs teams between 104-164) and has played a very strong schedule, but appears to not quite have the same level of talent on their roster than they've had in the past. --Aside from knowing that Dr. Brett Reed will never win them games, it's tough to draw many conclusions from Lehigh's resume, with a record of 0-4 vs teams in the top 100, 1-0 vs 100-200, 6-0 vs 223+
Middle 3 (Colgate, American, BU) - Better than most years, but a drop-off from the top tier. While each team was over .500 in the OOC, the average KP rank of the teams that they beat was 274, and only 2 of their combined 21 wins came against teams in the top 200. --Colgate (avg win: 270) with a record of 0-5 vs teams ranked 30-172 and 8-0 vs 223+, they need to prove something before they should be lumped into the top 3 --American (avg win: 277) & BU (avg win: 275) account for the 2 top 200 wins from this tier, but each was in their first games of the season. Since then, their best win was against 261 (AU) and 262 (BU)
Bottom 4 (Army, Loyola, Lafayette, Navy) ----
HC --Best player in the PL in Floyd, who has the talent and skill set to be averaging a double-double in the PL, and completely dominating play in the paint. --Potential 1st team all-PL player in Grandison, who should feast on PL defenses if we can get them to have to focus on defending Floyd in the paint --Potential 3rd team all-PL player in Green, who can score, distribute, and lead a team --Some solid role player pieces in Benzan (well-suited for utility role off the bench), Faw (good shooter), Niego (good shooter), and Butler (good offensive player when not playing against good defenses or athletic wings) --Inability to develop depth due to players thrown off the team, players who didn't develop, and a freshmen class that hasn't seen a meaningful minute in the OOC could cause serious issues if there are any injuries to starters -----
Expectations 16-2 or 15-3 It's a pretty simple math equation -- we should dominate this PL at home, go at least 1-1 on the road vs Lehigh and Bucknell, and go at least 2-1 on the road vs Colgate, American, BU. Hit those numbers, and that's 16-2, with a buffer for one additional loss allowing for 15-3.
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Post by thecrossisback on Jan 2, 2019 15:49:40 GMT -5
My expectation is a high one 18-0. They need to show that they are a force in the PL. Maybe they might loose a game or two. But the goal needs to be 18-0 and do whatever they have to do to be the 1 seed in the PL Tournament.
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Post by WCHC Sports on Jan 2, 2019 16:03:36 GMT -5
My answer will be even less scientific, but it aligns with the trend of the OOC slate (with the exception of maybe Harvard this season): if we beat who we should beat, and lose who we likely "should" lose to, HC will be in good shape with the PL schedule in 2019.
The biggest bugaboo for HC basketball the last few seasons has been the upset win. With the notable exception of the PL title run, into the PiG, and win there... HC pulls off no shockers. How outrageous would it have been for HC to beat Michigan earlier this year before the Wolverines really hit their stride, becoming one of the top teams in the country?
Okay, maybe it's not beating the #2 ranked team in the nation, but HC far more often than not will lose a game that we don't reasonably expect to, rather than beat a team where we have no reasonable expectations to win. A truly notable team will have plenty of decisive victories where we may be overlooked, or on the road playing a top tier league team. That will be the difference between the rankings in this group.
For the record, I chose 14-4, 13-5.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jan 2, 2019 16:05:39 GMT -5
To Commissioner Caro
I've set up quite a few of these prognostication threads-- my goals were to stimulate conversation, add some competition, have some fun. You, of course, have a different motive and it is apparent: continue the criticism of our coach and set the bar so high that there is no reasonable hope of clearing it. Yeah, I guess if we go 14-4 it would prove that Bill Carmody is just a terrible coach, right? Look at your commentary on HC above--virtually every line has a dig on Carmody.
Last year Bucknell went 16-2 in the PL. In Sagarin, Bucknell was ranked #89 while the second highest ranked PL team was Colgate at #198. At this point this season Bucknell is #135, Lehigh #142, Colgate #158, Holy Cross #161 and you think the "expectation" is that Holy Cross should go 15-3 or 16-2??? Please, stop the nonsense. It's really getting old
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Jan 2, 2019 16:10:51 GMT -5
What a ridiculous post by Bring Back.
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Post by thecrossisback on Jan 2, 2019 16:17:40 GMT -5
Last year Bucknell went 16-2 in the PL. In Sagarin, Bucknell was ranked #89 while the second highest ranked PL team was Colgate at #198. At this point this season Bucknell is #135, Lehigh #142, Colgate #158, Holy Cross #161 and you think the "expectation" is that Holy Cross should go 15-3 or 16-2??? Please, stop the nonsense. It's really getting old What nonsense, this is the biggest bunch of garbage I have ever heard in my life. I don't buy that for one minute. The team is 9-4, they are not allowed to dominate the PL this year. Let's not get carried away? This conference is not a powerhouse. HC has the all around best team. Bucknell is 6-6 Lehigh is 7-4 and has beaten nobody all year. This team is going to show everybody that they are going to run the table in the PL. Time will tell and we will all have a front row seat.
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Post by rgs318 on Jan 2, 2019 16:20:56 GMT -5
How is a team with SEVEN wins said to beat "nobody"? Lehigh has some talent and is clearly one of the top 3 PL teams. Let's see what happens his week.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jan 2, 2019 16:25:02 GMT -5
I love the expressed optimism. However, I believe the PL is stronger than it has been in quite a few years and the top teams appear to be well-matched. No one has "run the table" in the PL since the Bison did so in 2005-2006 with a team that went on to a #9 seed in the NCAA Tournament and defeated top-20 Arkansas in the round of 64. I sure hope you are proven right in your prediction.
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Post by bringbackcaro on Jan 2, 2019 16:25:27 GMT -5
KY & SOV -- How about offering some thoughts on PL play rather than rather than just criticizing and/or throwing out straw men?
Between 2006-2008, HC won 23 consecutive home games. What is so ridiculous about thinking that this team can win 9 in a row with the PL POY, another 1st (or 2nd) team all-PL player, and potential 3rd team all-PL player?
Do you really think the team can’t also go 3-2 on the road against these Lehigh, Bucknell, Colgate, American, and BU teams? Based on what I’ve read here, we should have a clear coaching advantage in all five of those games.
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Post by Tom on Jan 2, 2019 16:26:17 GMT -5
While any of the prior predictions would be awesome, I'm not that optimistic. And yes, 18-0 is the goal, but that is not necessarily a realistic prediction even from a fan's season long prediction
I posted something similar in the Loyola preview earlier today. Kind of like Caro, I divvied the league into thirds, but equal thirds looking at nine opponents instead of 10 total. The top teams in the league are all really tight. The various ratings that different people post show almost a toss-up they're so tight. I see home court deciding among the top dogs, and am guessing HC is 0-3 on the road at the top 3rd. Doing well, but not perfect at the middle 3 at 2-1. That leaves me at 14-4. Sadly I think they're more likely to stub their toe on a "should win" game than pull an upset at Bucknell or Lehigh.
This not a case of backing off my statement that this team should realistically be competing for the title. Last year Bucknell became the first team to win 16 conference games. Prior to that the regular season championship was won with totals of 15, 14, 13, and 15 games. I don't think anyone is running away with this thing and 13 or 14 wins will likely be the regular season champion
----------------------------------------- For the record, I was mixing in some work with my posting and started typed the above just after the 18-0 prediction and prior to the flurry that snuck in between that post and this one
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jan 2, 2019 16:32:52 GMT -5
Caro-- don't forget to get your picks in for the PL games on the other thread. It's an season-long competition--lots of fun. You can demonstrate your basketball expertise there and build your bona fides. My takeaway is that you see yourself as an expert who is frustrated by people like me (I go on record regularly admitting I am no expert) who don't share your opinion about Pine, Carmody, other issues--here's another vehicle for demonstrating that expertise.
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Post by Ignutz on Jan 2, 2019 16:45:11 GMT -5
I had earlier prognosticated a "somewhat pessimistic 13-5" PL record to go along with my similarly pessimistic 8-5 OOC forecast. Based on what I've seen and read, I'd like permission to re-cast my PL to 14-4.
Coupling a 23-8 regular season record with a 2-1 PL tourney result (ooh, they we're so close in that championship game!), results in your Crusaders sitting at 25-9 ahead of their post-post season where they'll go 1-1 and complete 2018-19 at 26-10, thus making them the odds-on favorite for the '19-'20 PL championship.
I fully expect that the pressure will be on the hoop team next year as they will want to bookend the gridders 2019 PL championship.
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Post by Ray on Jan 2, 2019 16:50:39 GMT -5
BBC, Interesting that you site KenPom data, and don't point out that KP's predicted record for HC is 11-7, with all of Bucknell/Lehigh/Colgate at 12-6.
That's heavily regressed, of course, as projections usually are.
But only three teams in PL history have won 15+ league games in 5 years of having 10 members. But that's now the baseline, even though you spent the entire OOC period opining that this HC team isn't as good as their record?
Stop playing us all for fools.
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Post by bringbackcaro on Jan 2, 2019 16:51:28 GMT -5
Caro-- don't forget to get your picks in for the PL games on the other thread. It's an season-long competition--lots of fun. You can demonstrate your basketball expertise there and build your bona fides. My takeaway is that you see yourself as an expert who is frustrated by people like me (I go on record regularly admitting I am no expert) who don't share your opinion about Pine, Carmody, other issues--here's another vehicle for demonstrating that expertise. I predicted 21 regular seasons wins before the 1st game. My PL expectations have increased that total to 24-25 regular season wins, as Grandison & Green have both exceeded my expectations coming into the year. (Not to take anything away from anyone who enjoys the full season thing, but I have no interest in predicting the winner of a Wednesday night game between Navy and Lafayette, for example.)
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Post by bringbackcaro on Jan 2, 2019 16:56:16 GMT -5
But only three teams in PL history have won 15+ league games in 5 years of having 10 members. But that's now the baseline, even though you spent the entire OOC period opining that this HC team isn't as good as their record? So the PL regular season winner has won 15+ games 60% of the time, and 14+ games 80% of the time. We have the best player in the league, potentially 2 of the 5 best players in the league, and a coach who is praised like he is the best coach in the league, but I guess it's crazy to think we can win the league. I ask the same two questions that I asked to SOV & KY: Between 2006-2008, HC won 23 consecutive home games. What is so ridiculous about thinking that this team can win 9 in a row with the PL POY, another 1st (or 2nd) team all-PL player, and potential 3rd team all-PL player?
Do you really think the team can’t also go 3-2 on the road against these Lehigh, Bucknell, Colgate, American, and BU teams? Based on what I’ve read here, we should have a clear coaching advantage in all five of those games.
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Jan 2, 2019 17:01:19 GMT -5
KY & SOV -- How about offering some thoughts on PL play rather than rather than just criticizing and/or throwing out straw men? Between 2006-2008, HC won 23 consecutive home games. What is so ridiculous about thinking that this team can win 9 in a row with the PL POY, another 1st (or 2nd) team all-PL player, and potential 3rd team all-PL player? Do you really think the team can’t also go 3-2 on the road against these Lehigh, Bucknell, Colgate, American, and BU teams? Based on what I’ve read here, we should have a clear coaching advantage in all five of those games. You reference Ken Pomeroy often, so I take that to mean you respect and trust his metrics and rankings. Lehigh, Bucknell, Holy Cross and Colgate are ranked in a cluster; 141, 152, 153, and 155, respectively. It's a weak argument to make that just because Colgate and Lehigh have not beaten good teams that they're somehow not a solid team themselves. With six games played against these opponents, it's very possibly we could go 3-3. American and BU are ranked 205 and 215, respectively. Games against these schools, particularly on the road, are hardly gimmes. I know that in your world you perceived HC and the PL to be much better from 2000-09 (coincidentally those were the RW years!), but the league is actually pretty good this year, as it's currently ranked as the 20th conference, which is good for the second highest ranking in the Pomeroy era (02 - present). To your poll and question, I believe the league is going to be very competitive 1-6. A 12-6 or 13-5 record may be good enough for the top seed. I would constitute finishing first and second in the PL as a good regular season, even if that means not winning 14+ games in the PL.
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Post by Ray on Jan 2, 2019 17:08:05 GMT -5
To your poll and question, I believe the league is going to be very competitive 1-6. A 12-6 or 13-5 record may be good enough for the top seed. I would constitute finishing first and second in the PL as a good regular season, even if that means not winning 14+ games in the PL. I'll co-sign this.
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Post by bringbackcaro on Jan 2, 2019 17:16:20 GMT -5
KY & SOV -- How about offering some thoughts on PL play rather than rather than just criticizing and/or throwing out straw men? Between 2006-2008, HC won 23 consecutive home games. What is so ridiculous about thinking that this team can win 9 in a row with the PL POY, another 1st (or 2nd) team all-PL player, and potential 3rd team all-PL player? Do you really think the team can’t also go 3-2 on the road against these Lehigh, Bucknell, Colgate, American, and BU teams? Based on what I’ve read here, we should have a clear coaching advantage in all five of those games. You reference Ken Pomeroy often, so I take that to mean you respect and trust his metrics and rankings. Lehigh, Bucknell, Holy Cross and Colgate are ranked in a cluster; 141, 152, 153, and 155, respectively. It's a weak argument to make that just because Colgate and Lehigh have not beaten good teams that they're somehow not a solid team themselves. With six games played against these opponents, it's very possibly we could go 3-3. American and BU are ranked 205 and 215, respectively. Games against these schools, particularly on the road, are hardly gimmes. I know that in your world you perceived HC and the PL to be much better from 2000-09 (coincidentally those were the RW years!), but the league is actually pretty good this year, as it's currently ranked as the 20th conference, which is good for the second highest ranking in the Pomeroy era (02 - present). To your poll and question, I believe the league is going to be very competitive 1-6. A 12-6 or 13-5 record may be good enough for the top seed. I would constitute finishing first and second in the PL as a good regular season, even if that means not winning 14+ games in the PL. OK, so even if I give you Lehigh, Bucknell, and Colgate are top 150 teams (which I don't think they all will be at season's end), why cant we have a minimum record of the following against them: Home: 2-1 Road: 1-2 The rest of the league is average and worse. If the program has truly truly turned a corner, we should dominate these teams. 12-6 or 13-5 against this collection of teams with the best player in the league would be incredibly average. It's Year 4 for Carmody and another Floyd is not walking through that door. Time to s*&$ or get off the pot.
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Jan 2, 2019 17:21:48 GMT -5
Would going 13-5 and getting the #1 seed in the PLT be average?
Entering league play, the PL has never has its 1-6 teams all ranked inside of the top 215.
You may think the league sucks, but it doesn't.
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Post by bringbackcaro on Jan 2, 2019 17:29:24 GMT -5
Would going 13-5 and getting the #1 seed in the PLT be average? Entering league play, the PL has never has its 1-6 teams all ranked inside of the top 215. You may think the league sucks, but it doesn't. Yes. But I guess my expectations of not getting stuck in the PIG again are apparently just too high. I didn't say the league sucks, but it's being significantly overrated by anyone who says 13-5 would be a good record out of one side of their mouth, and then talk about how great the team & coach are out the other side. Year 4. Time for the team and coach to prove that they've turned the corner. Based on where the league is right now (and without adding injuries to the equation), 13-5 does not prove that.
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Post by HC92 on Jan 2, 2019 17:35:43 GMT -5
I’ll pick 13-5. Split with Colgate, Lehigh and Bucknell. Lose two other random games at some point just because that’s the way things go and we’re not so much better than the other teams that we can reasonably expect to run the table against them.
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Jan 2, 2019 17:41:52 GMT -5
Would going 13-5 and getting the #1 seed in the PLT be average? Entering league play, the PL has never has its 1-6 teams all ranked inside of the top 215. You may think the league sucks, but it doesn't. Year 4. Time for the team and coach to prove that they've turned the corner. Based on where the league is right now (and without adding injuries to the equation), 13-5 does not prove that. 1) The league is better now -- top to bottom -- than, perhaps, it has ever been in its history. 2) 13-5 is a .722 winning percentage. In your friend Ralph Willard's 11 seasons, he had below a .722 winning percentage in six of them. I hope facts don't hurt your feelings.
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Post by bringbackcaro on Jan 2, 2019 17:49:40 GMT -5
Year 4. Time for the team and coach to prove that they've turned the corner. Based on where the league is right now (and without adding injuries to the equation), 13-5 does not prove that. 1) The league is better now -- top to bottom -- than, perhaps, it has ever been in its history. 2) 13-5 is a .722 winning percentage. In your friend Ralph Willard's 11 seasons, he had below a .722 winning percentage in six of them. I hope facts don't hurt your feelings. 1) The league may be better "top to bottom" but it is not better AT THE TOP. This HC team should be at the top, and beating up on the teams below. 2) What the heck are you talking about? RW was above .722 in the PL 6 of 10 years, 6 of 9 after cleaning out the Raynor's leftovers in Year 1, and 5 of 7 from Year 4 (Carmody today) on. In Year 4, RW had a PL winning percentage of .929. RW comparisons do not make Carmody look good. Not sure why some continue to try and bring that up to defend Carmody.
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Post by possum on Jan 2, 2019 18:01:40 GMT -5
I picked 12-6 to start the season and will stick with that. League is strong at the top and given the uncertain status of Niego I fear depth will become a big issue.
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Post by Ray on Jan 2, 2019 18:04:12 GMT -5
2) What the heck are you talking about? RW was above .722 in the PL 6 of 10 years, 6 of 9 after cleaning out the Raynor's leftovers in Year 1, and 5 of 7 from Year 4 (Carmody today) on. In Year 4, RW had a PL winning percentage of .929.
Must we point out again that the bulk of RW's successes came when he had scholarships and most of the rest of the league did not?
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