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Post by res on Jan 3, 2019 11:23:01 GMT -5
Ken Pomeroy projects Holy Cross to go 11-7 in PL play. He must not know that Holy Cross has the PL POY, DPOY, and two 1st team all-league selections.
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Post by bringbackcaro on Jan 3, 2019 11:33:31 GMT -5
Floyd is the best player and best defensive player in the league.
Removing the first game of the year, Grandison is averaging 18.6 PPG against teams outside of KenPom's Tier A&B (Top 100), which is where every PL team is. Has there ever been a player who averaged 18+ PPG for the PL regular season champion and did not make the 1st team?
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Post by hchoops on Jan 3, 2019 11:49:55 GMT -5
Maybe not, but the stat says Grandy is averaging 15.8, not 18.6. They tend to include all games, as foolish as it may seem to some. They do not drop the lowest grade, no grade inflation here.
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Post by res on Jan 3, 2019 12:11:32 GMT -5
I give you guys full marks for exuberance. Whether it turns out to be irrational exuberance or not we'll have to see. The results of the poll to date (34 votes) indicate an average prediction of nearly 13.5 wins depending on what you assume about the poster who picked 10 or fewer, so it's not just a couple of posters with unrealistic assumptions driving the result.
Frankly, I don't see it. I think the first team to 13, if any get there, is your regular season champion. The league is too balanced, winning on the road anywhere in college basketball is too tough, and none of these teams seems to be dominant enough to expect anything more. With that being said, it wouldn't surprise me if one, or two, of these teams separated somewhat from the others, but even then I'd be very surprised it that resulted in any greater than 14 wins.
In any case, we will eventually see. It should be a very interesting and alternatingly fun and exasperating season for everyone involved. Best of luck.
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Post by dadominate on Jan 3, 2019 12:42:38 GMT -5
I give you guys full marks for exuberance. Whether it turns out to be irrational exuberance or not we'll have to see. The results of the poll to date (34 votes) indicate an average prediction of nearly 13.5 wins depending on what you assume about the poster who picked 10 or fewer, so it's not just a couple of posters with unrealistic assumptions driving the result. Frankly, I don't see it. I think the first team to 13, if any get there, is your regular season champion. The league is too balanced, winning on the road anywhere in college basketball is too tough, and none of these teams seems to be dominant enough to expect anything more. With that being said, it wouldn't surprise me if one, or two, of these teams separated somewhat from the others, but even then I'd be very surprised it that resulted in any greater than 14 wins. In any case, we will eventually see. It should be a very interesting and alternatingly fun and exasperating season for everyone involved. Best of luck. nice post. the way in which these poll options are presented and the accompanying commentary is little more than a thinly-veiled knock at carmody and setup for “failure”. it reflects complete ignorance of the realities of winning on the road in college basketball that you point out and the history of patriot league standings more generally. the fact that 18-0/17-1 (there has never been an undefeated patriot league team) and 16-2/15-3 are presented as two distinct options and 10 wins (which would be a reasonably good year) are lumped in a single category with no wins would make any pollmaker cringe and is simple laughable. the distribution of choices would likely be different in an intelligibly constructed poll, so rest assured, we’re not as delusional as it may seem. i agree with you that the pl champion is likely to be in the 13-5 range, especially given the balance in the league this year. i would be happy with 12-6 as it would likely put us in the top 3 in the league, give us a bye and some home games, and make us a threat to go dancing this year.
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Post by bringbackcaro on Jan 3, 2019 12:59:03 GMT -5
I give you guys full marks for exuberance. Whether it turns out to be irrational exuberance or not we'll have to see. The results of the poll to date (34 votes) indicate an average prediction of nearly 13.5 wins depending on what you assume about the poster who picked 10 or fewer, so it's not just a couple of posters with unrealistic assumptions driving the result. Frankly, I don't see it. I think the first team to 13, if any get there, is your regular season champion. The league is too balanced, winning on the road anywhere in college basketball is too tough, and none of these teams seems to be dominant enough to expect anything more. With that being said, it wouldn't surprise me if one, or two, of these teams separated somewhat from the others, but even then I'd be very surprised it that resulted in any greater than 14 wins. In any case, we will eventually see. It should be a very interesting and alternatingly fun and exasperating season for everyone involved. Best of luck. nice post. the way in which these poll options are presented and the accompanying commentary is little more than a thinly-veiled knock at carmody and setup for “failure”. it reflects complete ignorance of the realities of winning on the road in college basketball that you point out and the history of patriot league standings more generally. the fact that 18-0/17-1 (there has never been an undefeated patriot league team) and 16-2/15-3 are presented as two distinct options and 10 wins (which would be a reasonably good year) are lumped in a single category with no wins would make any pollmaker cringe and is simple laughable. the distribution of choices would likely be different in an intelligibly constructed poll, so rest assured, we’re not as delusional as it may seem. i agree with you that the pl champion is likely to be in the 13-5 range, especially given the balance in the league this year. i would be happy with 12-6 as it would likely put us in the top 3 in the league, give us a bye and some home games, and make us a threat to go dancing this year. 1) Reality: In the last three years, the PL champion has gone 8-1, 7-2, 7-2 on the road. 2A) The idea that 10-8 or worse in Carmody's 4th year (with Jehyve Floyd) is "reasonably good" is just outrageously low expectations for a supposedly great coach. 2B) The number of options was limited, and I didn't think each win total would need to be grouped together all the way down to zero wins. As indicated above, there isn't really a difference between 10, 9, 8, 4, 2, 0 wins -- that result would be a significant failure (excluding the possibility of injuries).
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Post by dadominate on Jan 3, 2019 14:12:23 GMT -5
nice post. the way in which these poll options are presented and the accompanying commentary is little more than a thinly-veiled knock at carmody and setup for “failure”. it reflects complete ignorance of the realities of winning on the road in college basketball that you point out and the history of patriot league standings more generally. the fact that 18-0/17-1 (there has never been an undefeated patriot league team) and 16-2/15-3 are presented as two distinct options and 10 wins (which would be a reasonably good year) are lumped in a single category with no wins would make any pollmaker cringe and is simple laughable. the distribution of choices would likely be different in an intelligibly constructed poll, so rest assured, we’re not as delusional as it may seem. i agree with you that the pl champion is likely to be in the 13-5 range, especially given the balance in the league this year. i would be happy with 12-6 as it would likely put us in the top 3 in the league, give us a bye and some home games, and make us a threat to go dancing this year. 1) Reality: In the last three years, the PL champion has gone 8-1, 7-2, 7-2 on the road. 2A) The idea that 10-8 or worse in Carmody's 4th year (with Jehyve Floyd) is "reasonably good" is just outrageously low expectations for a supposedly great coach. 2B) The number of options was limited, and I didn't think each win total would need to be grouped together all the way down to zero wins. As indicated above, there isn't really a difference between 10, 9, 8, 4, 2, 0 wins -- that result would be a significant failure (excluding the possibility of injuries). come on bbc, you know there is a major difference between 10 wins and 0 wins. and even 10 wins and 5 or 6 wins. this would directly dictate having a pl tournament bye or not.
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Post by bringbackcaro on Jan 3, 2019 14:13:34 GMT -5
Here's a fun take: We would have gone AT LEAST 13-5 this year if we had just kept Milan Brown around. 3 1st team all-PL caliber players:
-Floyd -Proctor (20.3 PPG avg) -Koestecka (20.4 PPG avg) Remainder of the roster built around (approx):
-Benzan -3 Juniors -1 Soph -3-4 Frosh (depending on perkins) So based on the results of this poll, the Carmody vs Milan WAR would be 0.0.
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Post by sader1970 on Jan 3, 2019 14:30:39 GMT -5
BBC, you've lost it.
When you find yourself in a hole, the first order of business is stop digging.
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Post by ericobeyyourthirst on Jan 3, 2019 14:31:03 GMT -5
Here's a fun take: We would have gone AT LEAST 13-5 this year if we had just kept Milan Brown around. 3 1st team all-PL caliber players:
-Floyd -Proctor (20.3 PPG avg) -Koestecka (20.4 PPG avg) Remainder of the roster built around (approx):
-Benzan -3 Juniors -1 Soph -3-4 Frosh (depending on perkins) So based on the results of this poll, the Carmody vs Milan WAR would be 0.0. Here's some fun follow ups: 1. What was Milan Brown's career record? 2. How many times has Proctor bailed on a college program? I will admit the Koestecka de-commit hurts these days.
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Post by lou on Jan 3, 2019 14:38:17 GMT -5
Kostecka did not transfer
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Post by bison137 on Jan 3, 2019 14:48:01 GMT -5
Here's a fun take: We would have gone AT LEAST 13-5 this year if we had just kept Milan Brown around. 3 1st team all-PL caliber players:
-Floyd -Proctor (20.3 PPG avg) -Koestecka (20.4 PPG avg) Remainder of the roster built around (approx):
-Benzan -3 Juniors -1 Soph -3-4 Frosh (depending on perkins) So based on the results of this poll, the Carmody vs Milan WAR would be 0.0. One big assumption is that Floyd, Kostecka and Proctor would have developed in the same way playing for FCMB. After all, Malcolm Miller was a future NBA player - a tremendous athlete - and couldn't develop enough under FCMB to even make 1st team All-PL as a senior. He was beaten out for All-PL by Damon Sherman-Newsome and Worth Smith, among others. Also it's hard to tell about Proctor. He is playing for a bad team in a league that is worse than the PL. Also it's a league where most of the teams play terrible defense. Much worse defensively than the PL.
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Post by Non Alum Dave on Jan 3, 2019 15:33:44 GMT -5
Uncle
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Post by alum on Jan 3, 2019 15:38:33 GMT -5
Kids today want a chance to do the paper over, to retake the test. This whole thread is an example of that kind of attitude. KY posted his poll months ago and we all commented on how many wins the team would have in toto. Most of us broke it down by OOC, PL regular season, PL tournament and post season tournament. I'm not playing in this midseason makeup test. I'll stick with my initial projection.
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Post by bringbackcaro on Jan 3, 2019 15:39:42 GMT -5
Here's a fun take: We would have gone AT LEAST 13-5 this year if we had just kept Milan Brown around. 3 1st team all-PL caliber players:
-Floyd -Proctor (20.3 PPG avg) -Koestecka (20.4 PPG avg) Remainder of the roster built around (approx):
-Benzan -3 Juniors -1 Soph -3-4 Frosh (depending on perkins) So based on the results of this poll, the Carmody vs Milan WAR would be 0.0. Here's some fun follow ups: 1. What was Milan Brown's career record? 2. How many times has Proctor bailed on a college program? I will admit the Koestecka de-commit hurts these days. Milan's HC Record: 69-83 (.454) Carm's HC Record: 51-60 (.459) Milan's Career Record: 164-203 (.447) Carm's Career Record without Pete Carril's Princeton Teams: 243-280 (.465) Proctor "bailed" on HC (after not really being welcomed by Carmody) and "bailed" on Tim Cluess at Iona -- a coach who is totally incompetent based on what I've read on here. Nothing suggests he would have bailed on Milan, who lost exactly zero of his recruits during his time at HC -- a far cry from Carmody. --- Milan was a lousy coach -- I am in no way saying that he should be anywhere near the Head Coach job at HC now. Just offering some perspective for those who wax poetic about how great Carmody is out of one side of their mouth, then try to set the bar at 13-5 in the PL this year. Milan could have done that. In 2013-14 when Milan had 20 Wins Baby, he went 12-6 in the PL. Four years into the Carmody Era, and we’re only one game better? Doesn’t sound great to me.
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Post by Tom on Jan 3, 2019 15:51:04 GMT -5
Here's a fun take: We would have gone AT LEAST 13-5 this year if we had just kept Milan Brown around. 3 1st team all-PL caliber players:
-Floyd -Proctor (20.3 PPG avg) -Koestecka (20.4 PPG avg) Remainder of the roster built around (approx):
-Benzan -3 Juniors -1 Soph -3-4 Frosh (depending on perkins) So based on the results of this poll, the Carmody vs Milan WAR would be 0.0. So, you're saying that if HC had kept Coach Brown, thus keeping Proctor and Koestecka, HC would be in worse shape today. As I understand it, based on your analysis of the team - both the roster as it exists today and the current coaching staff - combined with your analysis of the rest of the league this year, HC will be 16-2 (maybe slipping to 15-3)
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Post by Ray on Jan 3, 2019 16:01:57 GMT -5
Please, someone lock this thread. I'm losing brain cells every time I refresh it.
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Post by ericobeyyourthirst on Jan 3, 2019 16:18:40 GMT -5
Here's some fun follow ups: 1. What was Milan Brown's career record? 2. How many times has Proctor bailed on a college program? I will admit the Koestecka de-commit hurts these days. Tim Cluess at Iona -- a coach who is totally incompetent based on what I've read on here.
Only has a career record of 184–101 (.646) at Iona....
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Post by bringbackcaro on Jan 3, 2019 16:19:12 GMT -5
Here's a fun take: We would have gone AT LEAST 13-5 this year if we had just kept Milan Brown around. 3 1st team all-PL caliber players:
-Floyd -Proctor (20.3 PPG avg) -Koestecka (20.4 PPG avg) Remainder of the roster built around (approx):
-Benzan -3 Juniors -1 Soph -3-4 Frosh (depending on perkins) So based on the results of this poll, the Carmody vs Milan WAR would be 0.0. One big assumption is that Floyd, Kostecka and Proctor would have developed in the same way playing for FCMB. After all, Malcolm Miller was a future NBA player - a tremendous athlete - and couldn't develop enough under FCMB to even make 1st team All-PL as a senior. He was beaten out for All-PL by Damon Sherman-Newsome and Worth Smith, among others. Also it's hard to tell about Proctor. He is playing for a bad team in a league that is worse than the PL. Also it's a league where most of the teams play terrible defense. Much worse defensively than the PL. Dave Dudzinski - a player with less athletic and raw ability than Floyd - developed into a 2nd team all-PL player as a Junior and 1st team all-PL player as a Senior. Koestecka has played his college career for GG Smith (.364 winning percentage) and Tavaras Hardy (.333 winning percentage - in one year) -- not exactly a high bar. Removing the two non-D1 opponents from High Point's OOC schedule, Proctor averaged 19.7 points against teams with an average KenPom defense of 197.7. Holy Cross's OOC opponents had an average KP defense of 208.1.
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Post by nhteamer on Jan 3, 2019 16:28:34 GMT -5
Clap clap
Milan Brown was a terrible college basketball coach; terrible
And Sean Kearney was way worse
Clap clap
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Post by bringbackcaro on Jan 3, 2019 16:38:35 GMT -5
Clap clap Milan Brown was a terrible college basketball coach; terrible And Sean Kearney was way worse Clap clap Agreed! And Milan went 12-6 in the PL in his 4th year. Based on your other thread, I'm guessing you predicted Carm would be at least 15-3 this year? "Terrible" to "great" has to be worth at least three wins, I would think.
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Jan 3, 2019 17:11:21 GMT -5
Truly amazing that we could win 13 games and finish first place in the PL (22-9 regular season record), yet Bring Back would classify that as not great.
In reality, this would be a our best season since Torey Thomas and Keith Simmons were seniors.
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Post by hc6774 on Jan 3, 2019 17:24:40 GMT -5
I stayed with my preseason prediction 6/3 at home 5/4 on the road... I would go to 12/6 if Niego was healthy.
btw American has a preseason PoY and potential 2 other all PL players
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Post by rgs318 on Jan 3, 2019 18:07:54 GMT -5
Here's some fun follow ups: 1. What was Milan Brown's career record? 2. How many times has Proctor bailed on a college program? I will admit the Koestecka de-commit hurts these days. Milan's HC Record: 69-83 (.454) Carm's HC Record: 51-60 (.459) Milan's Career Record: 164-203 (.447) Carm's Career Record without Pete Carril's Princeton Teams: 243-280 (.465) Proctor "bailed" on HC (after not really being welcomed by Carmody) and "bailed" on Tim Cluess at Iona -- a coach who is totally incompetent based on what I've read on here. Nothing suggests he would have bailed on Milan, who lost exactly zero of his recruits during his time at HC -- a far cry from Carmody. --- Milan was a lousy coach -- I am in no way saying that he should be anywhere near the Head Coach job at HC now. Just offering some perspective for those who wax poetic about how great Carmody is out of one side of their mouth, then try to set the bar at 13-5 in the PL this year. Milan could have done that. In 2013-14 when Milan had 20 Wins Baby, he went 12-6 in the PL. Four years into the Carmody Era, and we’re only one game better? Doesn’t sound great to me. Omitted (intentionally) when "seeing the bar": PL Tournament Championships won by MB's teams = 0 PL Tournament Championships won by BC's teams = 1 NCAA Games won by MB = 0 NCAA Games won by BC = 1 (and 1 loss) Post season PL games won by MB teams = 2 (5 losses) Post season PL games won by BC teams = 5 (2 losses) Most of these seem better for BC than MB, any reason for the omission? Can the nonsense please finally end? If Carmody's Princeton record was with "Carill teams" (although Pete no longer coached them) are you laying the groundwork for claiming that the last four years are really Brown's losing records?
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Post by crusader12 on Jan 22, 2019 14:11:36 GMT -5
< =10 wins is looking pretty good right now.....
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