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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jan 2, 2019 22:36:11 GMT -5
As we guessed, the all-kenpom.com team was released as soon as conference play commenced. I must say that I am surprised by one glaring exclusion. Of course, this team can change as the season progresses
(1)-- Sa'eed Nelson----American U
(2)--Jacob Grandison----Holy Cross
(3) Jordan Burns---Colgate
(4)--Max Mahoney--Boston U
(5)--Andrew Kostecka--Loyola
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Post by longsuffering on Jan 3, 2019 0:02:08 GMT -5
If any of these five drive on JF, he'll stuff 'em.😉
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Post by bringbackcaro on Jan 3, 2019 11:19:05 GMT -5
I would imagine that these predictions are based solely on a statistical formula. It would be a crime if we don't actually use Floyd enough in PL play that he isn't on the 1st team. A comparison of four recent HC Centers in their Senior years: Year | Name | %Possessions Used | %Shots Taken | 2007-08 | Tim Clifford | 27.2 | 32.2 | 2013-14 | Dave Dudzinski | 26.5 | 28.4 | 2018-19 | Jehyve Floyd | 18.4 | 15.9 | 2005-06 | Kevin Hyland | 13.5 | 12.6 |
Floyd should be closed to Clifford and Dudzinski than Kevin Hyland.
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Jan 3, 2019 11:28:32 GMT -5
Clifford and Dudz had the ability to shoot outside of five feet, so of course they will have had taken more shots.
Our offense is different under Carmody compared to Willard and Brown. I would imagine shots taken is a little more evenly distributed in this offense. However, I do agree that he needs to find a way to get Floyd more touches and looks at the basket than we have seen to date.
Floyd’s assist rate is much higher than Clifford and Dudz were as seniors — 25.6 compared to 5.1 (Dudz) and 12.4 (Clifford). A case can be made he plays just as focal a part of the offense as his predecessors.
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Post by hchoops on Jan 3, 2019 11:44:08 GMT -5
Esp since most of JF’s assists are for cutters and layups. He frequently gets low post touches, but often passes back out, even in single coverage. This happens esp after he is called for a backing in charge, as in the Iona flop when he got his fourth foul. He is reasonably hesitant to get another called.
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Post by bringbackcaro on Jan 3, 2019 11:45:34 GMT -5
Clifford and Dudz had the ability to shoot outside of five feet, so of course they will have had taken more shots. Our offense is different under Carmody compared to Willard and Brown. I would imagine shots taken is a little more evenly distributed in this offense. However, I do agree that he needs to find a way to get Floyd more touches and looks at the basket than we have seen to date. While that may make some difference, as you say, Floyd's numbers are way too low (in part because Faw and especially Butler's are way too high). Junior and Senior years for two other PL bigs who didn't shoot from the outside: Zahir Carrington (Jr): 0 3FGA, 26.5% shotsZahir Carrington (Sr): 1 3FGA. 21.9% shots -- on a team with CJ McCollumNana Foulland (Jr): 0 3FGA, 24.5% shotsNana Foulland (Sr): 2 3FGA, 24.8% shots
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Jan 3, 2019 11:48:04 GMT -5
Yes, let’s get Floyd to over 20%.
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Post by bringbackcaro on Jan 3, 2019 11:50:24 GMT -5
Esp since most of JF’s assists are for cutters and layups. He frequently gets low post touches, but often passes back out, even in single coverage. This happens esp after he is called for a backing in charge, as in the Iona flop when he got his fourth foul. He is reasonably hesitant to get another called. The biggest issue is that we never run any type of a set to get him a low-post touch where he is at an advantage on the defender. If we actually ran set to set big-to-big screens or other action for him where he was getting the ball at an advantage on the defender, he would be unstoppable. Whenever we get him the ball in the half court, he already has a defender on his back. (I would also challenge the notion that he frequently gets low post touches. He should, but he hasn't been. There are long stretches where he doesn't get the ball below the free throw line.)
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jan 3, 2019 12:08:42 GMT -5
I agree 100% that we need to go to JF more frequently. He seems unstoppable as he spins in either direction to get off his shot, i.e. he has a variety of moves and does not get blocked.
There is one glaring difference for JF versus Dudz or Big Tim: the foul line. Dudz drew 5.0 fouls per/40 minutes as a senior while Tim drew 4.8. JF is at 2.9, partly a result of getting the ball fewer times/game than the other two. But then we get to the line itself where both Dudz (.783 career pctg) and Tim (.785) were deadly while Jehyve is at .456 (includes .360 season to date). The result: Dudz made 119 free throws as a senior, Tim made 97, I hope that Jehyve makes 40 this season.
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Post by WCHC Sports on Jan 3, 2019 12:58:37 GMT -5
PPG and RPG. Primary stats that would drive POY or 1st team all-PL. APG (for a big man) and FG%. Secondary stats.
JF may win the DPOY, but doesn't make him 1st team, necessarily. Probably an auto-bid for 2nd team at worst.
High fouls, 3rd or 4th most minutes on the team, atrocious FT%, hurting said bid.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jan 3, 2019 14:59:25 GMT -5
If you see value in Sports-reference.com (it has defensive ratings numbers as well as offensive ones) you might be impressed by the numbers for these PL players
Off-Def= Player--school--offensive rating less defensive rating
+32.3= Max Mahoney--Boston U--131.8 less 99.5 +26.4= Sam Iorio--American U--123.9 less 97.5 +25.8= Kyle Leufroy--Lehigh--- 129.9 less 104.1 +25.6= Pat Andree--Lehigh---132.1 less 106.5 +20.2= Jehyve Floyd--Holy Cross--116.9 less 96.7
+13.9= Larry Motuzis--American U--114.0 less 101.1 +13.5= Avi Toomer--Bucknell--116.5 less 103.0 +12.6= Matt Wilson--Army--113.3 less 100.7 +12.5= Stacy Beckton--American U--107.4 less 94.9 +12.4 = Sa'eed Nelson--American U--108.1 less 95.7
+11.0= Rapolas Ivanauskas--Colgate--107.7 less 96.7 +10.4= Jacob Grandison--Holy Cross--112.9 less 102.4
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jan 13, 2019 23:43:32 GMT -5
kenpom has changed the team, but only the order of the players, and we still don't see JF on it:
(1)-- Sa'eed Nelson----American U 21 assists but 18 turnovers in 4 PL games; 1-9 on his threes. 91 points scored; 30-51 on 2's and 28-36 on FT's
(2) Jordan Burns---Colgate 36 assists and 18 turnovers in PL play, 83 points scored
(3)--Max Mahoney--Boston U in 4 games 74 points. 29-41 on twos
(4)--Jacob Grandison----Holy Cross in 4 PL games 53 points 9-21 on 2's; 9-20 on 3's, 23 boards
(5)--Andrew Kostecka--Loyola 69 points, 14-29 on 2's; 7-18 on 3's; 20-21 on the line
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Post by WorcesterGray on Jan 14, 2019 6:54:30 GMT -5
KY, do you have any insight into the calculations Pomeroy uses to determine individual player value for the purposes of this all-conference team?
What's curious to me is that - based on what I'd consider the most important advanced, "sabermetric"-type stats - Floyd clearly belongs on a hypothetical first-team: Other than Mahoney, nobody else on the KenPom team ranks as highly in as many categories. Burns looks to me to be the guy least deserving of inclusion.
Category, JF Rank in PL
Efficiency Rating, 3rd ORtg, 3rd DRtg, 5th Win Shares, 3rd Box +/-, 1st
Assist %, 6th Rebound %, 8th
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Post by hchoops on Jan 14, 2019 8:46:22 GMT -5
Kostecka, Nelson, Burns and Mahoney are the top 4 PL scorers. Grandy is 7th. Relevant ?
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jan 14, 2019 9:15:31 GMT -5
KY, do you have any insight into the calculations Pomeroy uses to determine individual player value for the purposes of this all-conference team?
What's curious to me is that - based on what I'd consider the most important advanced, "sabermetric"-type stats - Floyd clearly belongs on a hypothetical first-team: Other than Mahoney, nobody else on the KenPom team ranks as highly in as many categories. Burns looks to me to be the guy least deserving of inclusion.
Category, JF Rank in PL
Efficiency Rating, 3rd ORtg, 3rd DRtg, 5th Win Shares, 3rd Box +/-, 1st
Assist %, 6th Rebound %, 8th
I don't know how he makes his selections--all algorithm or some judgment as well? I sent him an email and I'll let the board know if he responds.
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Jan 14, 2019 9:49:18 GMT -5
Kostecka, Nelson, Burns and Mahoney are the top 4 PL scorers. Grandy is 7th. Relevant ? Not to Pomeroy.
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Post by bison137 on Jan 14, 2019 9:55:54 GMT -5
don't know how he makes his selections--all algorithm or some judgment as well? I sent him an email and I'll let the board know if he responds. I am pretty sure that it is all algorithm.
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Post by WorcesterGray on Jan 14, 2019 12:06:47 GMT -5
Note that there's nobody from Bucknell or Lehigh on the team. When a team wins the conference, do you think fans and players alike will long care or remember what individual honors anybody wins?
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jan 14, 2019 16:15:31 GMT -5
Note that there's nobody from Bucknell or Lehigh on the team. When a team wins the conference, do you think fans and players alike will long care or remember what individual honors anybody wins? Of course, this is just a website (although a highly valuable one) so there's nothing official about it as far as I know
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Post by Ray on Jan 14, 2019 16:19:27 GMT -5
Of course it's just automated. And it will continue to update after each game. Don't read more into it than is there.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jan 14, 2019 17:15:52 GMT -5
Mixing in another source--sports-reference.com---here are the leaders in "Win Shares". Of course, players from losing teams have a disadvantage here
2.7 Max Mahoney Boston U 2.5 Sam Iorio American U 2.4 Jehyve Floyd Holy Cross 2.4 Sa'eed Nelson American 2.2 Andrew Kostecka Loyola 2.2 Jacob Grandison Holy Cross 2.0 Jordan Burns Colgate
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Post by WorcesterGray on Jan 14, 2019 18:00:00 GMT -5
Mixing in another source--sports-reference.com---here are the leaders in "Win Shares". Of course, players from losing teams have a disadvantage here 2.7 Max Mahoney Boston U 2.5 Sam Iorio American U 2.4 Jehyve Floyd Holy Cross 2.4 Sa'eed Nelson American 2.2 Andrew Kostecka Loyola 2.2 Jacob Grandison Holy Cross 2.0 Jordan Burns Colgate This looks more like it . . . Another angle - only Floyd and Iorio are ranked in the top 5 in both ORtg amd DRtg. Sestina's lurking in the vicinity by any measure, I suspect.
Mentioned above "Box +/-" which has an ungodly formula, but is designed to recognize the importance of quantifying the full array of skills at both ends that show up in the counting numbers of the box score. Floyd 's league-leading score to date on this metric is 7.5. Sports-ref tracks this back about ten years, and only Muscala (11.7, 2012-13) and McCollum (9.8, 2011-12) have recorded a higher score during that time. Elite company.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jan 14, 2019 22:35:21 GMT -5
new list
1 Sa'eed Nelson, American (Jr) 2 Jordan Burns, Colgate (So) 3 Max Mahoney, Boston University (Jr) 4 Nate Sestina, Bucknell (Sr) 5 Andrew Kostecka, Loyola MD (Jr)
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Post by hchoops on Jan 14, 2019 23:04:16 GMT -5
Other than weak FT, what does Jehyve have to do ?
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jan 17, 2019 23:34:45 GMT -5
I don't know how he makes his selections--all algorithm or some judgment as well? I sent him an email and I'll let the board know if he responds. My note and Ken Pomeroy's response: Mr. Pomeroy--
I love your analytics and have subscribed for several years now. Question: what metrics do you use to select your all-conference teams? We Holy Cross fans wonder how Jehyve Floyd has not yet made the all-Patriot League team. We have a very active message board and reference your analytics very frequently. Thanks
From Ken Pomeroy
7:41 PM (3 hours ago) It's a combination of a player's value to his team (mostly offensive rating and %poss) and his team's rating. Jehyve's pedestrian usage is what's holding him back.
Ken-- Thanks for the answer and for the great work you do to help us basketball fans!
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