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Post by hchoops on Jan 7, 2019 11:55:56 GMT -5
Not accusing you of making this excuse, but this one drives me crazy. Based on my math, Carmody has brought in 13 scholarship players over the past four years, with the opportunity to bring in 14. Out of those 13 used, THREE are currently contributing to this year. (Maybe it would be four if Niego stayed healthy, but still a totally unacceptable hit rate) When you manage a roster that poorly, youth cannot be an excuse. So of your red bolded three, which soph is not contributing ? Certainly not the only two you like, so it has to be Butler or Faw. Curious how you defend no contribution from either.
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Post by lou on Jan 7, 2019 11:57:50 GMT -5
Thought we had four starting sophomores
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Post by possum on Jan 7, 2019 11:57:53 GMT -5
Think it's 5 of 13 as Niego has to be considered a contributor despite his injury, but your point in general is correct must have a better hit rate on recruits. Also think with the amount of minutes the sophomores have played the young excuse is overused.
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Jan 7, 2019 12:04:41 GMT -5
Would bet 99% are fans of Austin and doubt people think he is selfish, but instead an intense competitor and leader that needs to take charge-the staff just needs to teach him how to manage his role over the next two years. I believe Matt and Conor will be real leaders if not more by time they are seniors With respect to Ziggy -I agree and can only assume he is injured or there are other issues Seems like Carm has a very long leash for AB. Other guys get pulled more quickly for similar mistakes. His value in other areas must negative these. Given that we are pretty much playing with six guys now, it's not like he has many options.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jan 7, 2019 12:11:40 GMT -5
Matt Faw? 2 games into PL play--many, many, many more games to play--Matt ranks #1 in the conference in steal % and #2 in block % per KenPom. He may block no more shots and have no more steals, but he certainly is off to a good start on those 2 categories. I think his shooting % will be solid by the end of the season
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Jan 7, 2019 12:13:37 GMT -5
Think it's 5 of 13 as Niego has to be considered a contributor despite his injury, but your point in general is correct must have a better hit rate on recruits. Also think with the amount of minutes the sophomores have played the young excuse is overused. The biggest issue with this roster -- by far -- was Carmody's colossal swing and miss with the junior class. Stevens and Cohen are no longer on the team and it's pretty clear CLS is never going to be a meaningful contributor. When you take having zero production out of Carmody's first recruiting class coupled with a group of freshmen are aren't ready to play, you get one of the thinnest teams in the country in terms of depth.
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Post by WorcesterGray on Jan 7, 2019 12:13:52 GMT -5
When the three bigs got in first half foul trouble yesterday and had to sit, the three guys who came off the bench to spell them were all guards. Big trouble against a very good rebounding team. Fortunately, there are only a few such teams in the PL, and (as noted elsewhere) Carmody's teams have historically committed fewer than average fouls.
Still, the size imbalance of the roster is a little concerning - an imbalance made worse by Niego's absence and not improved by the 2019 class, however talented they may turn out to be.
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Post by bringbackcaro on Jan 7, 2019 12:16:07 GMT -5
Not accusing you of making this excuse, but this one drives me crazy. Based on my math, Carmody has brought in 13 scholarship players over the past four years, with the opportunity to bring in 14. Out of those 13 used, THREE are currently contributing to this year. (Maybe it would be four if Niego stayed healthy, but still a totally unacceptable hit rate) When you manage a roster that poorly, youth cannot be an excuse. So of your red bolded three, which soph is not contributing ? Certainly not the only two you like, so it has to be Butler or Faw. Curious how you defend no contribution from either. Honest miss-calculation on my part and corrected my original post. Should have said four contributors (and going to five if Niego was playing). Do you think 5 out of 13-14 (35%-38%) with the bar set simply at "contributing" is actually an acceptable hit rate on scholarships?
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Post by Non Alum Dave on Jan 7, 2019 12:19:57 GMT -5
The only thing I will say regarding the "too young excuse" is - while I don't think it flies experience wise for this group, it can be somewhat of a factor in terms of physical maturity. But still, out of 15 games played, how many games have they lost that they should have won? Outside of yesterday, and probably Providence, to me they have been taking care of business, even if they haven't been pretty. How many teams play pretty games all season long?
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Post by hchoops on Jan 7, 2019 12:21:26 GMT -5
Matt Faw? 2 games into PL play--many, many, many more games to play--Matt ranks #1 in the conference in steal % and #2 in block % per KenPom. He may block no more shots and have no more steals, but he certainly is off to a good start on those 2 categories. I think his shooting % will be solid by the end of the season And maybe as a cause of those stats, he has cut down on his fouls, only two in each of those games.
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Post by WorcesterGray on Jan 7, 2019 12:24:40 GMT -5
Per 40 minutes, Faw's fouls are down 40% from last year, and he's cut his turnovers in half.
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Post by possum on Jan 7, 2019 12:33:19 GMT -5
On the flip side of this Faw's shooting% is well off last years pace 50% to 41% and 48% to 33% on three's. Hopefully this will improve going forward but think defenses are playing up on him to prevent open looks.
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Post by classof83 on Jan 7, 2019 13:12:39 GMT -5
The only thing I will say regarding the "too young excuse" is - while I don't think it flies experience wise for this group, it can be somewhat of a factor in terms of physical maturity. But still, out of 15 games played, how many games have they lost that they should have won? Outside of yesterday, and probably Providence, to me they have been taking care of business, even if they haven't been pretty. How many teams play pretty games all season long? I think there is a level of mental maturity as well. IMO there is point with every team when the season becomes a grind - especially with the Patriot League teams - since so much of the non-conference schedule is on the road and then you add in long bus trips when the season begins. It may be that the youth on this team has hit that point in the season sooner than you might see in a team with older players. The good teams fight through that. We will see how this team responds. When I watched the Loyola game, it look liked HC's poor performance (even though the team won) was due to a complete lack of focus - things that should easily be fixed. The Navy game was just plain ugly. They might not win on Wednesday, but I expect a much better performance against Lehigh.
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Post by WCHC Sports on Jan 7, 2019 13:22:56 GMT -5
Youth is not an excuse. If you're good enough to be on the team, I expect you to play smart basketball, and not be subject to swings of volatility in the level of your play. And BCC, that's somewhat to your point, and one that SoV will agree with in terms of depth: if a recruit is a dud, it hurts. My points about the youth of the team is about who is on the court, and who gets the minutes. If you have 5 upper classmen that never play, and a rotation of six underclassman on the court, then the team is in effect, young.
Babe Ruth is among the Yankee greats but his presence in Monument Park does squat for the guys at the dish. I'm worried about who is in the games.
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Post by hc87 on Jan 7, 2019 13:37:33 GMT -5
Didn't see the 2nd H yday (had practice) but the Niego injury seems to be the biggest problem we have in terms of depth/size at the moment....hopefully he can return sooner rather than later obviously.
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Post by purplehaze on Jan 7, 2019 14:34:25 GMT -5
(I agree the Niego absence hurts but) with the possible exception of the Iona game, I'd say we have had long stretches of very mediocre basketball since the win over Umass. We've been winning ugly until yesterday when things caught up to us. The scouting reports against our team are getting very sophisticated with half the season in the books, and we'll have to play much better to reach our goal of a league championship.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jan 7, 2019 14:40:19 GMT -5
So of your red bolded three, which soph is not contributing ? Certainly not the only two you like, so it has to be Butler or Faw. Curious how you defend no contribution from either. Honest miss-calculation on my part and corrected my original post. Should have said four contributors (and going to five if Niego was playing). Do you think 5 out of 13-14 (35%-38%) with the bar set simply at "contributing" is actually an acceptable hit rate on scholarships? When I look at our Crusaders I always end up comparing each player to a counterpart from a previous team. As a group we have done that many times, e.g. when we debate where Caleb Green fits in as a point guard or ball handler when compared to Jave Meade and Torey Thomas, but also against Pat Doherty, Justin Burrell, and Anthony Thompson, and Andrew Beinert. I've also assigned my own letter grade to each player a time or two where players are ranked from "A" (not too many of those--maybe a handful in the last 10-15 years I've been following closely) through the solid B's, the average players who get a "C", and D/F for players who did not contribute due to injuries or lack of talent. I shared those grades with a couple of posters privately to get their feedback, but, non-expert that I am I didn't feel I should go public. That would not be appropriate, in my opinion: it's fine to debate who are the greats; that's different than debating who were the non-contributors. I can imagine player John Doe accessing the board and thinking "I busted my butt on some pretty good teams and this dope in Kentucky, who knows nothing about hoops, gives me a "C"? " In any case, when you look at our current players and lament that we have some guys who have not been able to contribute a lot, you should also acknowledge that this has always been the case. Go back to the Ralph Willard teams and the Milan Brown teams and you'll find plenty of players (we don't need to call them out publicly) with low O-ratings, low shooting percentages, big personal foul problems, and many who sat on the bench year after year getting only mop-up minutes. It's not that the "jury is still out" on judging Bill Carmody's recruits, it's that the case has not even been presented. It's too early to tell. As we gather the evidence, I'll say that I like what I've seen so far from our soph class for sure and next year's freshmen sound promising.
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Post by efg72 on Jan 7, 2019 14:47:19 GMT -5
Youth is not an excuse. If you're good enough to be on the team, I expect you to play smart basketball, and not be subject to swings of volatility in the level of your play. And BCC, that's somewhat to your point, and one that SoV will agree with in terms of depth: if a recruit is a dud, it hurts. My points about the youth of the team is about who is on the court, and who gets the minutes. If you have 5 upper classmen that never play, and a rotation of six underclassman on the court, then the team is in effect, young. Babe Ruth is among the Yankee greats but his presence in Monument Park does squat for the guys at the dish. I'm worried about who is in the games. Despite the minutes the underclassmen received last year and the first part of this season, it is quite possible they are still learning the nuances of the offense and defense. Recently there seems to be a bit of uncertainty in positioning on the floor offensively and defensively we have too many missed assignments. What might be needed is an experienced leader on the floor to help guide the team through some of the more difficult and challenging minutes. I believe this will sort itself out over the next few weeks as Green begins to be more of a coach on the floor, but it is a gap. I am not sure if others agree but prior to CN being injured the flow offensively was much smoother and they were beginning to play with some rhythm and confidence, Also, It appears as if the more physical and better coached teams understand how to alter some of the cuts and then jump in the passing lanes, which upsets the spacing and takes away some easier options making us shoot too soon or not look to make the extra pass. Even when a good shot is taken, in the end the execution looks ugly. While youth plays into some of this, it is important to recognize they are growing as a team and learning how to win together. The loss yesterday is part of that development and I am sure they will learn from the experience and adjust. The good thing is this team has a number of really tough competitors and I believe they will work harder this week to avoid another negative outcome.. Big two weeks ahead and need to grab one at a time
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Post by CHC8485 on Jan 7, 2019 15:17:47 GMT -5
Not accusing you of making this excuse, but this one drives me crazy. Based on my math, Carmody has brought in 13 scholarship players over the past four years, with the opportunity to bring in 14. Out of those 13 used, FOUR are currently contributing to this year. (Maybe it would be five if Niego stayed healthy, but still a totally unacceptable hit rate) When you manage a roster that poorly, youth cannot be an excuse. *Edited to 4 contributors from previous mistakeAs you've laid it out, youth is not an excuse for Carmody and how over the last 4 years the roster got where it is, but, when 5 of the 7 players who played more than a minute and 4 of 6 who played more than 10 minutes yesterday are sophomores, youth is a contributing factor in the team's performance yesterday on the road based on what the team currently is.
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Post by bringbackcaro on Jan 7, 2019 15:18:00 GMT -5
Honest miss-calculation on my part and corrected my original post. Should have said four contributors (and going to five if Niego was playing). Do you think 5 out of 13-14 (35%-38%) with the bar set simply at "contributing" is actually an acceptable hit rate on scholarships? When I look at our Crusaders I always end up comparing each player to a counterpart from a previous team. As a group we have done that many times, e.g. when we debate where Caleb Green fits in as a point guard or ball handler when compared to Jave Meade and Torey Thomas, but also against Pat Doherty, Justin Burrell, and Anthony Thompson, and Andrew Beinert. I've also assigned my own letter grade to each player a time or two where players are ranked from "A" (not too many of those--maybe a handful in the last 10-15 years I've been following closely) through the solid B's, the average players who get a "C", and D/F for players who did not contribute due to injuries or lack of talent. I shared those grades with a couple of posters privately to get their feedback, but, non-expert that I am I didn't feel I should go public. That would not be appropriate, in my opinion: it's fine to debate who are the greats; that's different than debating who were the non-contributors. I can imagine player John Doe accessing the board and thinking "I busted my butt on some pretty good teams and this dope in Kentucky, who knows nothing about hoops, gives me a "C"? " In any case, when you look at our current players and lament that we have some guys who have not been able to contribute a lot, you should also acknowledge that this has always been the case. Go back to the Ralph Willard teams and the Milan Brown teams and you'll find plenty of players (we don't need to call them out publicly) with low O-ratings, low shooting percentages, big personal foul problems, and many who sat on the bench year after year getting only mop-up minutes. It's not that the "jury is still out" on judging Bill Carmody's recruits, it's that the case has not even been presented. It's too early to tell. As we gather the evidence, I'll say that I like what I've seen so far from our soph class for sure and next year's freshmen sound promising. A very useful exercise. I had done the same type of comparison for Carmody vs Milan using a 0-5 scale, and just tried to take a quick run through RW's recruits but was a bit hazy on remembering whether or not a few of the guys in his first couple classes were scholarship players or not. On my 0-5 scale, my bar for "contributor" would be at least a 2. For RW's 32 recruits, I have him down for 5 players less than 2 -- 15.6%* For Milan's 16 recruits, I have him down for 3 players less than 2 -- 18.8%For Carmody's 13 recruits, I have him down for 8 players less than 2 -- 61.5%Removing, the two freshmen would bring the number to 6 -- 46.2%*RW guys I wasn't sure whether he or Raynor recruited, or if they were on scholarship: Clemmons, McKeever, Jerz, Wilson *RW guys I wasn't sure were on scholarship or walk-ons: Bucaro, Richter
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Post by Tom on Jan 7, 2019 15:45:13 GMT -5
No inside info on MZ but it's a very curious situation last year played 17 minutes a game this year virtually nothing. Maybe there's some type of injury but there has been no confirmation of that. To my untrained eye he seems to be heavier this year. It sure would be nice if the limited press coverage we do get would ask some of these questions. My outside take Coach Carmody mentioned during the pre-season that Ziggy was fighting through on-going knee issues. Since we have not seen him on the bench in street clothes, I am assuming there is going to be no shut down to let it rest and improve. It is what it is and not likely to get better. Ziggy is definitely heavier. To my untrained eye, he doesn't appear out of shape or anything like that. He looks like he did a lot of work in the weight room, but maybe was working out with guys trying to bulk up more than basketball type lifting. I remember Coach Brown making a similar comment about some of his inherited players. When I have seen him get meaningful minutes this season, he has been thrown into a sloppy situation. A calming senior leader who understands the system, is not going to make dumb turnovers and can calm down the O. However, I think between the knee issues and the extra size, he probably is a half a step slower than he was last year which can hurt on the defensive end It would be interesting to sneak into practice and see how much he is on the floor playing against the starters vs resting a knee on the sidelines. My observations combined with a logical explanation of going from 17 minutes to basically zero. On the other hand, I could have totally misread the situation
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Jan 7, 2019 15:50:26 GMT -5
What a ridiculous post by Bring Back.
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Post by Tom on Jan 7, 2019 16:06:21 GMT -5
You're trying to test my memory
As best I can remember, from the great class of 2003, Coach Willard's only recruit was Tim Szatko. Clemmons, Jerz, and Wilson were all scholarship athletes recruited by Coach Raynor
Coach Raynor also brought Dekker McKeever in with Whearty and Serravalle as the first 3 scholarship players. He is often forgotten because he was always hurt.
Greg Richter was a scholarship player who suffered a career ending injury. I think Bucaro was a walk on
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Post by nycrusader2010 on Jan 7, 2019 19:43:10 GMT -5
And if we are to get back to the dance, these losses really hurt our chances of getting to the 14 seed or better line. It’s grest to get in. But if we’re a 16 playing duke or in the PIG, it loses a bit of its luster. Too early for this kind of talk.
But barring a strange season where we fall to around .500 by losing two thirds of our conference games and then have another miracle run, we won't have this issue. If all goes well in conference play and through the tournament we would certainly be a 20-22 win team. 20-win teams don't end up in a play-in game in most cases.
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