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Post by rgs318 on Jan 13, 2019 9:09:40 GMT -5
Massey makes Bucknell a 5 point favorite (72-67) with a 67% chance for the win at home. The Bison have 2 wins at home over Colgate (84-81) and American (55-54) after losing at BU (80-87). Their overall record is 9-7. They are tied for first in the PL with Lehigh (3-1).
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Post by efg72 on Jan 13, 2019 10:32:03 GMT -5
Any suggestion on how much longer Niego will be out?
Match up tomorrow is tough, not impossible, if we continue to be thin with numbers upfront
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Post by WorcesterGray on Jan 13, 2019 11:21:29 GMT -5
Bucknell "Four Factors" Offensive Category, Rank EFG%, 98th - Good TO%, 78th - Good OR%, 337th - Poor FTR, 112th - Good
Defensive . . . EFG%, 95th - Good TO%, 289th - Poor DR%, 238th - Fair FTR, 72nd - Excellent
Advanced game-logs with "four factor" performances for each game.
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Post by WorcesterGray on Jan 13, 2019 11:26:41 GMT -5
Holy Cross "Four Factors" Offensive Category, Rank EFG%, 54th - Excellent TO%, 44th - Excellent OR%, 337th - Poor FTR, 331st - Poor
Defensive . . . EFG%, 182nd - Average TO%, 68th - Excellent DR%, 296th - Poor FTR, 82nd - Good
Advanced game-logs, with "four factor" performance for each game.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jan 13, 2019 11:51:33 GMT -5
With Zach Thomas (and Nana F to a lesser degree) graduated, Bucknell no longer has a 3 or 4 point advantage per game just from free throws. Still, Bucknell is taking 2 more free throws per game (not suggesting it's the refs--it's likely the personnel and strategy) than opponents while HC is taking 2 or 3 fewer. That's one thing that worries me about tomorrow's game.
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Post by hchoops on Jan 13, 2019 12:01:16 GMT -5
I like the fact that we have taken fewer threes lately. Only 14 of our 54 shots yesterday were threes. Now Bucknell will not give us all the free cutting lanes that Lafayette did, but we cannot expect to shoot the threes the way we have the past two games on the road. We have to rely on the PO giving us many two point opportunities, and then converting them obviously.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jan 13, 2019 12:06:41 GMT -5
In the last 7 games we have taken more threes than our opponents only once-- vs. Iona
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Post by lou on Jan 13, 2019 12:08:29 GMT -5
Green seems a lot more open for 3s lately, by design? And when hes got a good look he obviously can drain them.
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Post by Ray on Jan 13, 2019 12:44:44 GMT -5
5th game in 11 days, essentially a zero-day prep with a long bus ride today. Hope the guys have their legs tomorrow.
A win would be enormous. 3-2 in this opening stretch, even with the two stingers for losses, would be very reasonable.... and would confirm that the league is going to be a wild scrum, as 9 of 10 teams would have 2+ losses already.
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Post by DiMarz on Jan 13, 2019 13:28:11 GMT -5
I like the fact that we have taken fewer threes lately. Only 14 of our 54 shots yesterday were threes. Now Bucknell will not give us all the free cutting lanes that Lafayette did, but we cannot expect to shoot the threes the way we have the past two games on the road. We have to rely on the PO giving us many two point opportunities, and then converting them obviously. Our offense creates cutters from all areas on the floor..Every player, except Floyd, can and will take an open 3....Teams have to decide what they want to try to take away from HC...If they sag and clog up the lane to limit cutters, that means shooters will be open..If they take away 3's, that means the lane will open up for cutters...Really tough to do both..The offense is not one dimensional, there is an inside and outside component..Just have to make shots!!
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Post by classof83 on Jan 13, 2019 16:13:40 GMT -5
I like the fact that we have taken fewer threes lately. Only 14 of our 54 shots yesterday were threes. Now Bucknell will not give us all the free cutting lanes that Lafayette did, but we cannot expect to shoot the threes the way we have the past two games on the road. We have to rely on the PO giving us many two point opportunities, and then converting them obviously. Our offense creates cutters from all areas on the floor..Every player, except Floyd, can and will take an open 3....Teams have to decide what they want to try to take away from HC...If they sag and clog up the lane to limit cutters, that means shooters will be open..If they take away 3's, that means the lane will open up for cutters...Really tough to do both..The offense is not one dimensional, there is an inside and outside component..Just have to make shots!! And not miss layups. This team misses a lot of layups. IMO the missed layups in the Navy and Lehigh losses had as much as to do with the losses as the missed free throws.
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Post by rgs318 on Jan 13, 2019 16:29:34 GMT -5
From the Bison website: Bucknell Probable Starters G: Jimmy Sotos (So 6'3" 192) 9.5 ppg / 4.5 rpg / 6.1 apg / 32 mpg G: Kimbal Mackenzie (Sr 6'2"190) 15.4 ppg / 2.4 rpg / 3.3 apg / 28 mpg G: Avi Toomer (Jr 6'3" 192) 9.1 ppg / 3.4 rpg / 1.8 apg / 20 mpg F: Bruce Moore (Jr 6'8" 222) 9.8 ppg / 4.1 rpg / 0.7 apg / 22 mpg C: Nate Sestina (Sr 6'9" 245) 16.0 ppg / 8.1 rpg / 1.1 apg / 15 mpg
Top Subs: C: Paul Newman (So 6'9" 234) 5 ppg / 6 rpg / 1 apg / 16 mpg G: Andrew Funk (Fr 6'4" 180) 3 ppg / 1 rpg / 1 apg / 12 mpg
With a Win over Holy Cross, Bucknell Would ... Build its first three-game winning streak of the season and improve to 10-7 overall and 4-1 in the Patriot League. Move a half-game in front of Lehigh for first place in the Patriot League. Defeat the Crusaders for the fifth straight time and move to 43-29 all-time against them. Improve to 174-56 all-time at Sojka Pavilion and 125-26 against PL foes at Sojka Pavilion. Improve to 285-118 all-time in Patriot League play and 110-27 in the PL over the last nine seasons. Headlines
Bucknell concludes its three-game homestand, all coming in a five-day span, when Holy Cross visits Sojka Pavilion for a nationally televised game on Monday night. Saturday's one-point win over American, coupled with Lehigh's loss at Colgate, created a tie for first place in the Patriot League between the Bison and Mountain Hawks. Both teams are 3-1, and then six teams sit one game back at 2-2. The Bison matched their lowest point total of the Nathan Davis era on Saturday, but won anyway. The Bison pulled out a 55-54 win over American thanks to a strong defensive performance and two big 3-pointers from Nate Sestina in the final minutes. It was the first time Bucknell won a game when scoring fewer than 60 points since Feb. 11, 2015 at Navy (52-51). Bucknell has had a knack for coming from behind this season, and the Bison are 3-1 in the Patriot League despite a -2 scoring margin. Bucknell has won a game after trailing by 10 or more points six different times this season, including all three PL wins. Senior guard Kimbal Mackenzie is on 1,000-point watch. He is five points shy of becoming the 43rd 1,000-point scorer in team history. Senior center Nate Sestina has lived up to his Preseason All-Patriot League billing thus far. The Bison are 9-5 this season with Sestina in the lineup — he missed the Fairfield and Canisius games with an injury — and he is averaging a team-best 16.0 points and 8.1 rebounds per game. Sestina, who served as the backup center behind former Patriot League Player of the Year Nana Foulland for the last three seasons, was named to the All-Tournament Team at the Diamond Head Classic. Sestina was last week's Patriot League Player of the Week after averaging 24.5 points and 10.5 rebounds against Army and Boston University. His 27 points against the Terriers was a career high. Bucknell is looking to continue its run of success following the graduation of one of its all-time great senior classes. The trio of point guard Stephen Brown, forward Zach Thomas and center Nana Foulland were all First Team All-Patriot League selections last year, and they accounted for 4,801 career points. Despite the heavy graduation hit, four of Bucknell's five opening-night starters managed to start at least 10 games last season. And the only one that didn't — Nate Sestina — was a Preseason All-Patriot League selection. Last season, Bucknell finished 25-10 overall and 16-2 in the Patriot League. The Bison swept Loyola, Boston University and Colgate — with the latter two wins coming by a combined 60 points — to win the Patriot League Tournament crown. Bucknell's eighth NCAA Tournament appearance resulted in a narrow 82-78 first-round loss to third-seeded Michigan State in Detroit. Holy Cross comes to Lewisburg with a Patriot League-high 11 overall wins against six losses and a 2-2 Patriot League record. The Crusaders dropped Lafayette 77-70 at home on Saturday, behind a 25-point game from Preseason All-Patriot League center Jehyve Floyd. Jacob Grandison (15.2 ppg) is one of four Holy Cross players scoring in double figures, followed by Austin Butler (12.4), Caleb Green (12.3) and Floyd (10.9). Last Time Out
Nate Sestina hit the tying and go-ahead 3-pointers in the final minutes of regulation, and the defense took it from there as Bucknell held off American 55-54 on Saturday afternoon at Sojka Pavilion. The Bison held on for the win as Sa'eed Nelson's long 3-point attempt at the buzzer rimmed out for the Eagles. Sestina tied the score at 52 on a triple from the left side with 2:43 on the clock. After American missed the front end of a 1-and-1 and the two teams traded misses, Sestina took a pass from Jimmy Sotos on the left wing, hesitated as a defender flew past him, and then swished another 3-pointer with 1:17 to go that gave the Bison the lead for good. Sestina scored a game-high 14 points for the Bison, while battling foul trouble throughout the game. Bruce Moore recorded his first career double-double with 10 points and a career-high 15 rebounds, and Jimmy Sotos logged 10 points, six assists and four rebounds. The Bison found a way to win despite shooting just 39.2% from the field, 5-for-19 from the 3-point arc, and 10-for-18 from the foul line. American came into the game leading the Patriot League in scoring defense (67.2) and 3-point defense (.280) while ranking second in field-goal percentage defense (.411). Defensively, Bucknell held American to 35.6% shooting overall, including 4-for-17 from long distance (0-for-7 in the second half). The Eagles also left some points at the free-throw line, finishing 8-for-14. Bucknell outrebounded American 37-35, led by Moore's best-ever game on the glass. It was the second-highest rebounding total by a Bison this season, trailing only Sestina's 16 against St. Bonaventure in the season opener. Bison Are Kings of the comeback
Bucknell has now erased a double-digit deficit to win a game six times this season, including an epic 26-point rally in the win at Army on Jan. 2. Opponent Deficit Result at St. Bonaventure 13 (52-39 with 12:13 left 2nd half) won 88-85 (OT) at Vermont 13 (36-23 with 18:06 left 2nd half) won 69-61 vs. Rhode Island 11 (38-27 with 2:38 left 1st half) won 84-82 at Army 26 (39-13 with 19:42 left 2nd half) won 64-63 vs. Colgate 13 (27-14 with 10:44 left 1st half) won 84-81 vs. American 10 (28-18 with 6:06 left 1st half) won 55-54
And then there were these near-misses: Opponent Deficit Result Fairfield 15 (36-21 with 1:30 left 1st half) Bison tied game with 0:09 left, lost 58-56 on shot with 0:03 left at Ohio State 11 (69-58 with 4:28 left 2nd half) Bison had last-second shot in air to win game but lost 73-71
The Bucknell vs. Holy Cross Rivalry has been one of the league's best through the years. Some of the highlights:
The Bison and Crusaders have combined to win 11 of the last 18 Patriot League titles. These two teams have met 15 times in the 28 Patriot League Tournaments, with Holy Cross winning eight and Bucknell seven. That includes four times in the championship game. Bucknell defeated Holy Cross in the 2005 and 2006 title tilts, while the Crusaders topped the Bison in the final in 1993 and 2007. The Bison and Crusaders had never met until the formation of the Patriot League in 1990-91, but this will be the 72nd meeting in 29 years. Bucknell leads the series 42-29. The road team has won just 10 of the last 26. Bucknell is 22-11 against Holy Cross in Lewisburg and 15-5 at Sojka Pavilion. Bucknell is 16-15 vs. Holy Cross at the Hart Center, with one of the wins coming in the 2005 Patriot League championship game. The Bison have swept the Crusaders in each of the last two seasons. A year ago, Bucknell won 77-56 at home and 68-67 in overtime at the Hart Center. Zach Thomas led the way with 18 points in last year's meeting at Sojka Pavilion. Avi Toomer had a strong game with 10 points in 16 minutes off the bench. Austin Butler and Jacob Grandison tallied 13 apiece for Holy Cross. In the rematch in Worcester, Bucknell outscored Holy Cross 2-1 in overtime to take the one-point win. Nana Foulland had 21 points, and Zach Thomas and Stephen Brown 15 each for the Bison. Jehyve Floyd paced Holy Cross with 18 points and 11 rebounds.
Numbers Worth Noting Senior Kimbal Mackenzie has a knack for taking charges. He drew four offensive fouls in the La Salle game on Dec. 4, and he has a team-high 13 drawn charges this season. Sophomore Jimmy Sotos struggled in the turnover category early in the season, but over the last nine games, he has 61 assists with only 19 turnovers. As a team, the Bison rank 35th nationally in assists per made field goal (.587). Sophomore Paul Newman has played well in the first extended action of his career, and he has emerged as one of the Patriot League's top shot-blockers. Newman ranks third in the league with 1.6 blocks per game, even though he plays just 15.5 minutes per game. Newman averages 4.1 blocks per 40 minutes. Sophomore John Meeks has provided a big lift since returning from injury at Ohio State on Dec. 15. In eight games since coming back, Meeks has totaled 51 points (20-35 FG) and 19 rebounds in 103 minutes. He averages 19.8 ppg 40 minutes. Bucknell's shot chart from the La Salle game was a statistical analyst's dream. In a game in which the Bison scored 92 points, all 29 made field goals were either dunks (6), layups (12), or 3-pointers (11). In fact, Bucknell did not attempt a 2-point shot outside the paint all night. Bucknell's non-conference schedule was ranked as the 77th-hardest in the nation, according to statistical analyst Ken Pomeroy. Bucknell's 12 non-league foes combined for a 260-141 (.648) overall record and a 144-70 (.673) mark within their respective leagues last year. Nine of the 12 teams won at least 20 games, and 10 of the 12 had winning records. Bucknell went 3-0 against the Atlantic 10 this season. The Bison averaged 88 points per game in wins over St. Bonaventure, La Salle and Rhode Island. The Bison have been a slow-starting team but also a very good second-half team for much of this season, both offensively and defensively. In the first eight minutes of games this year, the Bison are 60-for-160 (.375) from the field. But they shoot just under 48% percent while holding opponents under 40% shooting in the second halves.
First Half Second Half Points per game 31.4 39.8 FG% .417 .481 3FG% .340 .379 FT% .648 .747 Opponent PPG 36.9 34.9 Opponent FG% .465 .396 Opponent 3FG% .386 .257 Opponent FT% .741 .733
Mackenzie has played all 80 second-half minutes in league play thus far, while Sotos has played 77 and Sestina 74 of the 80.
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Post by sader1970 on Jan 13, 2019 17:02:38 GMT -5
I hope at minimum if the Crusaders jump out to a big lead as we have in a number of games this season, that they realize that they cannot get comfortable because Bucknell will come back.
If we can get a lead, we have to "run through the tape."
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Post by rgs318 on Jan 13, 2019 17:13:26 GMT -5
Nice old-time track analogy!
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Post by Ignutz on Jan 13, 2019 20:56:43 GMT -5
I hope at minimum if the Crusaders jump out to a big lead as we have in a number of games this season, that they realize that they cannot get comfortable because Bucknell will come back. If we can get a lead, we have to "run through the tape." I’d prefer that we “keep our (collective) foot on their (collective) throat.”
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Post by Tom on Jan 14, 2019 9:10:25 GMT -5
In general, I don't expect wins when visiting the iron of the league. That makes this kind of a free bonus game. In the big picture, a loss is almost expected and not a big effect on the year end standings. However a win is a gravy that helps creates separation from the big pack in the middle
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Post by classof83 on Jan 14, 2019 9:37:40 GMT -5
I am curious on the pace of the game - Does anyone how the two teams compare?
HC seems to me to be pushing the ball up the court more often recently - especially when PB is in the game.
Just from my naked eye it looks like Bucknell does not want to push the ball on offense and often settles into their half court defense immediately - they don't try to shorten the opposition's shot clock by pressuring the ball up the court.
Sestina, Moore and Newman are big guys and we may want to push the ball when they are in the game.
Not often mentioned about JF - but he can run the floor.
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Post by bison137 on Jan 14, 2019 9:50:37 GMT -5
I am curious on the pace of the game - Does anyone how the two teams compare? HC seems to me to be pushing the ball up the court more often recently - especially when PB is in the game. Just from my naked eye it looks like Bucknell does not want to push the ball on offense and often settles into their half court defense immediately - they don't try to shorten the opposition's shot clock by pressuring the ball up the court. Sestina, Moore and Newman are big guys and we may want to push the ball when they are in the game. Not often mentioned about JF - but he can run the floor. Bucknell generally plays at a much faster pace than HC. There are an average of 70.7 posessions in their games, which ranks 105th nationally. In contrast HC games have an average of 64.6 posessions, which rank 340th. The average Bucknell offensive possession lasts 16.0 seconds which ranks 54th. The average HC posession on offense lasts 17.9 seconds, which ranks 243rd.
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Post by timholycross on Jan 14, 2019 10:19:39 GMT -5
I am curious on the pace of the game - Does anyone how the two teams compare? HC seems to me to be pushing the ball up the court more often recently - especially when PB is in the game. Just from my naked eye it looks like Bucknell does not want to push the ball on offense and often settles into their half court defense immediately - they don't try to shorten the opposition's shot clock by pressuring the ball up the court. Sestina, Moore and Newman are big guys and we may want to push the ball when they are in the game. Not often mentioned about JF - but he can run the floor. Bucknell generally plays at a much faster pace than HC. There are an average of 70.7 posessions in their games, which ranks 105th nationally. In contrast HC games have an average of 64.6 posessions, which rank 340th. The average Bucknell offensive possession lasts 16.0 seconds which ranks 54th. The average HC posession on offense lasts 17.9 seconds, which ranks 243rd. Just curious, does a possession reset on an offensive rebound or include all activity until a foul is called or a basket made?
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Post by bison137 on Jan 14, 2019 10:52:18 GMT -5
It does not reset on an offensive rebound in Pomeroy's stat and most similar ones.
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Post by cmo on Jan 14, 2019 12:23:44 GMT -5
Bucknell -4 Total : 138.5
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Post by timholycross on Jan 14, 2019 12:34:31 GMT -5
It does not reset on an offensive rebound in Pomeroy's stat and most similar ones. So Bucknell's pace of play is clearly faster than HC's because neither team is a good offensive rebounding team. If a team gets a lot of OR's, their time of possession would come out inherently slower, therefore kind of deceptive.
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Post by bison137 on Jan 14, 2019 12:42:03 GMT -5
CBC and Nathan Davis have both coached in the PL for three years prior to this year. Bucknell's average rank for tempo in those three years was #58. HC's average tempo rank for those years was #345. Couldn't be much more different.
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Post by classof83 on Jan 14, 2019 13:40:00 GMT -5
It will be interesting to see tonight if HC pressures the Bucknell guards as they get the ball up the court. I would assume yes since they tend to do it in every game. It doesn't look like Bucknell does much of that to their opposition preferring to play half court defense.
I can see where HC would have a much slower pace of play since they tend to work the offense in the half court. It just seems to me that they are getting the ball in the half court much quicker. I doubt there are stats on average how quickly a team crosses mid-court on each possession ( or on defensive rebounds) but it would be interesting to know since it would tell how quickly an opposition has to get back to play defense as well.
Any stats on fast break points or percentage of possessions that are fast breaks? I doubt HC has a lot of those. How about Bucknell?
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Post by WorcesterGray on Jan 14, 2019 15:24:51 GMT -5
I hope at minimum if the Crusaders jump out to a big lead as we have in a number of games this season, that they realize that they cannot get comfortable because Bucknell will come back.Bucknell's first and second half performances have contrasted starkly - they're -5.9 (309th) in average first half margin, but +5.4 (35th) in the second half. Holy Cross has been the opposite, +3.4 (95th) in the first half, -1.7 (218th) in the second.
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