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Post by Tom on Feb 24, 2019 17:36:16 GMT -5
With the logjam in the standings, I went a little math geek
If the wheels fall off and HC loses their last 2, obviously they could finish as low 10th, however if all the cards fall right, they could climb as high as 8th and host a play in game
On the other hand, if HC wins out. . . if everyone else cooperates, HC could climb to 4th and host a quarterfinal game. The flip side is everything else goes wrong, HC could win out and still be in 9th place travelling for the play-in round.
The way this season has gone, anything can happen
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Post by DiMarz on Feb 24, 2019 18:13:55 GMT -5
Tom You are a better Math geek than me! I looked at the possibilities and gave up!
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Feb 24, 2019 18:23:42 GMT -5
Let's take a look at the bottom 7 teams and see what kenPom forecasts for their remaining two games
Team= PL Record= Change Game 1 & Chance Game 2= Win Both %/Win 1 %/Lose Both %
American= 8-8= 55% & 44%= 24%/51%/25% American has 24% likelihood of going 10-8/51% for 9-9/25% for 8-10
Army= 7-9= 66% & 15%=10%/61%/29%
Lafayette= 7-9= 49% & 29%= 17%/47%/36%
Boston U= 6-10=51% & 77%= 39%/50%/11%
Holy Cross= 6-10= 20% & 56%= 11%/54%/35%
Loyola= 6-10= 34% & 38% = 13%/46%/41%
Navy= 6-10= 26% & 23%= 6%/37%/57%
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Post by Non Alum Dave on Feb 24, 2019 18:23:45 GMT -5
Just a little frustrating that the guys put themselves in this kind of situation. But, hopefully they have regained some confidence that will serve them well for the tourney.
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Post by shooterflatch on Feb 24, 2019 18:50:37 GMT -5
The Patriot League: where no one knows how the seeding is done and it doesn’t matter anyhow.
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Post by Tom on Feb 24, 2019 19:17:01 GMT -5
Let's take a look at the bottom 7 teams and see what kenPom forecasts for their remaining two games Team= PL Record= Change Game 1 & Chance Game 2= Win Both %/Win 1 %/Lose Both % American= 8-8= 55% & 44%= 24%/51%/25% American has 24% likelihood of going 10-8/51% for 9-9/25% for 8-10
Army= 7-9= 66% & 15%=10%/61%/29%
Lafayette= 7-9= 49% & 29%= 17%/47%/36%
Boston U= 6-10=51% & 77%= 39%/50%/11%
Holy Cross= 6-10= 20% & 56%= 11%/54%/35%
Loyola= 6-10= 34% & 38% = 13%/46%/41%
Navy= 6-10= 26% & 23%= 6%/37%/57% Assuming the favored team wins every game (which isn't likely), 7-11 HC would finish 7th based on holding a tiebreaker over 7-11 Lafayette. Still stuck in play-on game, but at least hosting
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Post by bison137 on Feb 24, 2019 23:09:49 GMT -5
The Patriot League: where no one knows how the seeding is done and it doesn’t matter anyhow. Actually it's very clear how the seeding is done - and it is similar or identical to how it is done in many other D1 leagues.
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Seedings
Feb 25, 2019 0:01:56 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by bringbackcaro on Feb 25, 2019 0:01:56 GMT -5
HC currently has a 4-6 record against teams that are either 7-9 or 6-10 in the pL, including two losses at home.
Should have dominated these teams and would have had a chance to be competing for a finish at the top of the league.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Feb 25, 2019 0:23:24 GMT -5
HC has had more close losses than most teams. With 8 more total points HC would be 10-6 instead of 6-10 in PL play. AU is also 8 points away from 4 more wins. 8 points would buy 2 more wins for Lehigh, BU, Army, Colgate, and Loyola but only a single win for Bucknell, Navy, and Lafayette. I believe this is factor #233 that the NCAA uses when selecting and seeding tournament teams.
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Post by notjuanjones on Feb 25, 2019 10:23:50 GMT -5
HC has had more close losses than most teams. With 8 more total points HC would be 10-6 instead of 6-10 in PL play. AU is also 8 points away from 4 more wins. 8 points would buy 2 more wins for Lehigh, BU, Army, Colgate, and Loyola but only a single win for Bucknell, Navy, and Lafayette. I believe this is factor #233 that the NCAA uses when selecting and seeding tournament teams. It has been an exceedingly frustrating last 10 days for AU, which had double-digit leads against all of Loyola, Colgate and Lafayette, yet managed to drop all three games-by two points each. Sunday, we almost blew a 21-point second-half lead at Army before holding on in the last minute. Still, with the win, the Eagles have, this season, won as many games as in the previous two seasons combined.
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Post by Ignutz on Feb 25, 2019 10:29:25 GMT -5
HC has had more close losses than most teams. With 8 more total points HC would be 10-6 instead of 6-10 in PL play. AU is also 8 points away from 4 more wins. 8 points would buy 2 more wins for Lehigh, BU, Army, Colgate, and Loyola but only a single win for Bucknell, Navy, and Lafayette. I believe this is factor #233 that the NCAA uses when selecting and seeding tournament teams. And with two more made free throws, we don't go to OT (and lose) vs. Lehigh and Loyola.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Feb 25, 2019 12:04:59 GMT -5
HC has had more close losses than most teams. With 8 more total points HC would be 10-6 instead of 6-10 in PL play. AU is also 8 points away from 4 more wins. 8 points would buy 2 more wins for Lehigh, BU, Army, Colgate, and Loyola but only a single win for Bucknell, Navy, and Lafayette. I believe this is factor #233 that the NCAA uses when selecting and seeding tournament teams. And with two more made free throws, we don't go to OT (and lose) vs. Lehigh and Loyola. They are included in the 4 games we would have won with 8 more points Lost to Navy 48-50, with 3 more points we win Lost to Lehigh in OT, with 1 more regulation point we win Lost to Loyola in OT, with 1 more regulation point we win Lost to Lafayette 67-69, with 3 more points we win. We went 5-12 on free throws
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Feb 25, 2019 12:09:40 GMT -5
The team that has made the most of its points may be Loyola:
Wins by 2,OT, OT, OT, 2, 9
Losses by 7, 17, 15, 3, 6, 3, 12, 3, 5, 7
With 9 fewer points, Loyola could be 1-15 in PL play
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Post by hchoops on Feb 25, 2019 12:55:18 GMT -5
Best(worst?) example of parity in any league today ?
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Feb 25, 2019 14:39:32 GMT -5
Best(worst?) example of parity in any league today ? I'd guess that math experts could do some calculations and come up with a firm answer, e.g. by looking at the spread of in-conference W-L records or at the KenPom rankings, To exaggerate: a conference where the teams all were 7-9, 8-8, or 9-7 would have greater parity than the PL, as would a conference where 10 teams were ranked, say, #80 through #105 in KenPom. Just quickly eyeballing the other conferences, it looks like the Sunbelt, Missouri Valley, Metro Atlantic, and NEC also have a lot of parity, but you may well be correct in asserting that the PL is the closest to parity.
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Post by bringbackcaro on Feb 25, 2019 15:18:44 GMT -5
And with two more made free throws, we don't go to OT (and lose) vs. Lehigh and Loyola. They are included in the 4 games we would have won with 8 more points Lost to Navy 48-50, with 3 more points we win Lost to Lehigh in OT, with 1 more regulation point we win Lost to Loyola in OT, with 1 more regulation point we win Lost to Lafayette 67-69, with 3 more points we win. We went 5-12 on free throws And HC is also two plays away (Faw missed 3 & Cohen made wide open 3) from losing two additional games to Bucknell and Lehigh, and being 4-12 in PL play. That means HC is 2-1 in "50/50" games against teams at the top of the league, and then 0-3 against three below .500 teams. While there is certainly some bad luck involved with going 0-3 against those poor teams, when you don't consistently play at anywhere close to a high level for 40 minutes of games, you are opening yourself up to those types of losses. HC allowed 10 offensive rebounds in the LaughU and Loyola games, and 17 in the Navy game -- a great place to start when looking for extra possessions in a close game.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Feb 25, 2019 15:40:39 GMT -5
They are included in the 4 games we would have won with 8 more points Lost to Navy 48-50, with 3 more points we win Lost to Lehigh in OT, with 1 more regulation point we win Lost to Loyola in OT, with 1 more regulation point we win Lost to Lafayette 67-69, with 3 more points we win. We went 5-12 on free throws And HC is also two plays away (Faw missed 3 & Cohen made wide open 3) from losing two additional games to Bucknell and Lehigh, and being 4-12 in PL play. That means HC is 2-1 in "50/50" games against teams at the top of the league, and then 0-3 against three below .500 teams. While there is certainly some bad luck involved with going 0-3 against those poor teams, when you don't consistently play at anywhere close to a high level for 40 minutes of games, you are opening yourself up to those types of losses. HC allowed 10 offensive rebounds in the LaughU and Loyola games, and 17 in the Navy game -- a great place to start when looking for extra possessions in a close game. I want HC to get every rebound and, like you, get frustrated when I see our lack of o-boards and our opponents' surplus. Looking at W-L , there is a much greater correlation between our offensive rebounding and winning than with our defense against offensive rebounding and winning: Our offensive rebounding--strong correlation with W-L HC is 1-8 when we grab 16.7% or a lower percentage of our missed shots HC is 14-6 when we grab 18.8% or a higher percentage of our missed shots WorcesterGray cited some stats on HC free throws vs competition and the correlation with W-L. Here's a look at "free throw rate" and W-L HC is 12-3 when our free throw rate is greater than 22% [Note: not hard to achieve as 22% would rank a team #350 of 353 D-1 teams] HC is 3-11 when our free throw rate is below 22% Of course, the trouble is that we have only two players who get to the line with any frequency, a common problem with PO teams.
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Post by bringbackcaro on Feb 25, 2019 16:02:08 GMT -5
And HC is also two plays away (Faw missed 3 & Cohen made wide open 3) from losing two additional games to Bucknell and Lehigh, and being 4-12 in PL play. That means HC is 2-1 in "50/50" games against teams at the top of the league, and then 0-3 against three below .500 teams. While there is certainly some bad luck involved with going 0-3 against those poor teams, when you don't consistently play at anywhere close to a high level for 40 minutes of games, you are opening yourself up to those types of losses. HC allowed 10 offensive rebounds in the LaughU and Loyola games, and 17 in the Navy game -- a great place to start when looking for extra possessions in a close game. I want HC to get every rebound and, like you, get frustrated when I see our lack of o-boards and our opponents' surplus. Looking at W-L , there is a much greater correlation between our offensive rebounding and winning than with our defense against offensive rebounding and winning: Our offensive rebounding--strong correlation with W-L HC is 1-8 when we grab 16.7% or a lower percentage of our missed shots HC is 14-6 when we grab 18.8% or a higher percentage of our missed shots I'm not sure that's the case. I'm only looking at PL data right now, but with the median for each as the cutoff, this is how I see the OReb% splits: (HC record in parentheses)HC OR% >= 27.6%: 4-4
HC OR% <= 21.4%: 2-6vs. Opp OR% >=32.3%: 2-6
Opp OR% <=31.6%: 4-4
---- One other stat that I've become more interested in is combining defense with defensive rebounding for "Opponent Make + OReb %" -- (FGM + OReb) / FGA -- to measure how often you get a stop and are also able to re-gain possession. Comparing this stat against the other primary offensive & defensive stats on the KenPom main conference page, this stat has the strongest correlation with Patriot League finish over the past two seasons (18-19 YTD & 17-18). (HC record in parentheses)HC Make + OR% >=59.9%: 4-4
HC Make + OR% <=57.7%: 2-6 Opp Make + OR% >=64.4%: 1-7
Opp Make + OR% <=63.6%: 5-3
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Post by Non Alum Dave on Feb 25, 2019 17:11:00 GMT -5
Honestly not trying to be a wise guy here, but are there breakdowns of all these numbers that show WHO is responsible for the productivity, such as upperclassmen (seniors and juniors) vs underclassmen (sophomores and freshmen)?
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Seedings
Feb 25, 2019 17:29:54 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by longsuffering on Feb 25, 2019 17:29:54 GMT -5
If two teams enter the tournament with equal league records, equal ooc records and hypothetically are tied in RPI, NET, Pomeroy, Massey, and the Gallup Poll, but one team is dominated by upperclassmen and the other is dominated by underclassmen, which would you bet on against each other?
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Post by hchoops on Feb 25, 2019 17:39:00 GMT -5
The team with a healthy Zion Williamson
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Post by rgs318 on Feb 25, 2019 17:50:39 GMT -5
LOL
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Post by WorcesterGray on Feb 27, 2019 21:29:38 GMT -5
With the loss tonight, HC officially punches its pig-pen ticket, along with Loyola; the loser of upcoming BU-Navy; and (likely) Lafayette which finishes against Lehigh.
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Feb 27, 2019 21:34:30 GMT -5
Should we have an away PIG game this year, Carmody will have yet to coach a home game in the PLT in his career at HC. Another remarkable stat.
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Post by cmo on Feb 27, 2019 21:36:43 GMT -5
Year 4. Yikes.
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