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Post by rgs318 on Mar 6, 2019 11:21:40 GMT -5
Massey makes Bucknell an 8 point favorite (74-66) with a 77% chance for the win. OK, roughly 3-1 against HC...but that is not impossible.
Bucknell has only 2 wins in their last 5 games that started with their loss to Holy Cross. All of those losses were road games. The Bison have not lost a home game since dropping one to Northeastern (96-78) last November. That is 11 home wins in a row.
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Post by thecrossisback on Mar 6, 2019 12:49:03 GMT -5
From the Bucknell Board
It’s HC. Hey it’s the 10 seed. Piece of cake, right? This is no ordinary 10 seed.
They are nervous, let's take advantage. Floyd has to dominate Sestina down low. Avoid foul trouble and get him in foul trouble.
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Post by bison137 on Mar 6, 2019 12:50:00 GMT -5
From the Bucknell Board It’s HC. Hey it’s the 10 seed. Piece of cake, right? This is no ordinary 10 seed. They are nervous, let's take advantage. Floyd has to dominate Sestina down low. So you think what someone posts on a message board means that the team is nervous???
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Post by Tom on Mar 6, 2019 13:01:58 GMT -5
From the Bucknell Board It’s HC. Hey it’s the 10 seed. Piece of cake, right? This is no ordinary 10 seed. They are nervous, let's take advantage. Floyd has to dominate Sestina down low. So you think what someone posts on a message board means that the team is nervous??? If someone believed 100 percent of the stuff on this board, they'd have to be schizophrenic. Clowning aside, I would assume Bucknell believes if they play their game to their potential they should win, but if they don't give it their all they could lose. I would assume every team feels the same way. If recognizing that anything less than a full effort will end your season counts as being nervous, then I'd say they are nervous
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Post by joe on Mar 6, 2019 13:51:40 GMT -5
Nerves impacts 3 point shooting the most, in my opinion. The further the shot, even the slightest hiccup will lead to a miss. Remember the end of the PL championship game in 2016? Being in a league where an NCAA ticket is based on a few games, and not the sum total of an entire season, can do this to anyone. I like our chances to win this tourney.
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Post by DiMarz on Mar 6, 2019 14:23:04 GMT -5
Massey makes Bucknell an 8 point favorite (74-66) with a 77% chance for the win. OK, roughly 3-1 against HC...but that is not impossible. Bucknell has only 2 wins in their last 5 games that started with their loss to Holy Cross. All of those losses were road games. The Bison have not lost a home game since dropping one to Northeastern (96-78) last November. That is 11 home wins in a row.
Isn't that the same number of wins that Lafayette had without a loss at home in the tourney's history? Hmmmmm........
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Post by rgs318 on Mar 6, 2019 14:33:54 GMT -5
In Lafayette's case, I think that was because they played so many first round games away.
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Post by longsuffering on Mar 6, 2019 14:37:43 GMT -5
Sestina can't possibly repeat his performance from the last game against HC. The law (of averages) is on our side.
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Post by WorcesterGray on Mar 6, 2019 16:16:25 GMT -5
Bucknell "Four Factors" Offensive Category, Rank EFG%, 105th - Good TO%, 77th - Good OR%, 243rd - Fair FTR, 175th - Average
Defensive . . . EFG%, 81st - Good TO%, 303rd - Poor DR%, 148th - Average FTR, 149th - Average
Gamelogs
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Post by WorcesterGray on Mar 6, 2019 16:20:31 GMT -5
Holy Cross "Four Factors" Offensive Category, Rank EFG%, 88th - Good TO%, 30th - Excellent OR%, 340th - Poor FTR, 348th - Poor
Defensive . . . EFG%, 305th - Poor TO%, 22nd - Excellent DR%, 319th - Poor FTR, 33rd - Excellent
Gamelogs
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Post by thecrossisback on Mar 6, 2019 18:26:13 GMT -5
From the Bucknell Board It’s HC. Hey it’s the 10 seed. Piece of cake, right? This is no ordinary 10 seed. They are nervous, let's take advantage. Floyd has to dominate Sestina down low. So you think what someone posts on a message board means that the team is nervous??? Take a joke. I am not on ESPN College Gameday here. Don't be salty your going to lose again.
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Post by nycrusader2010 on Mar 6, 2019 20:47:03 GMT -5
There is ZERO chance Bucknell overlooks us.
We just BEAT them. And we threw the kitchen sink at them in Lewisburg in the second half after finding ourselves down 25 early.
Not to mention Sestina was a freshman who was on the bench for the "Airball heard round the world".
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Mar 6, 2019 20:48:02 GMT -5
You’re
Lose
Fewer
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Post by longsuffering on Mar 6, 2019 23:21:37 GMT -5
If HC beats Bucknell, does that knock them out of the running for an NIT at large bid?
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Post by ndgradbuthcfan on Mar 7, 2019 7:53:37 GMT -5
If HC beats Bucknell, does that knock them out of the running for an NIT at large bid? HC would have no chance with a win. The NIT selection committee contains many Bucknell alums.
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Post by res on Mar 7, 2019 8:24:36 GMT -5
If HC beats Bucknell, does that knock them out of the running for an NIT at large bid? No, because Bucknell already has a 0% chance of an NIT at large.
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Post by Tom on Mar 7, 2019 9:06:57 GMT -5
If HC beats Bucknell, does that knock them out of the running for an NIT at large bid? Probably. They don't have Colgate's guarantee fall back as the #1 seed. I have no recollection of a Patriot League team who was not a #1 tournament seed getting an NIT bid. Also this isn't as good a Bucknell team as some recent editions. When HC got the bid back in 2005, it was before #1 seeds were guaranteed a bid if they stubbed their toe in the league tournament, so that was an at-large bid. However, looking at the big picture nationally, I think the 2005 HC squad was better than the 2019 Bucknell squad
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Post by classof83 on Mar 7, 2019 9:20:34 GMT -5
The real question is whether they would accept an invite to the CBI or CIT. If they lose in the Tournament, I would think they would most certainly get an invite.
I know some from Bucknell have poo pooed those Tournaments.
When HC accepted a bid when MB was the coach, I was all for it. I went to the Brown game where we won and I recall a decent crowd at the Hart Center when we lost to Yale
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Post by res on Mar 7, 2019 9:24:31 GMT -5
Not only was 2005 before #1 seeds were awarded automatic bids, but it was also 40 teams. There's only 32 now, and at least 10 will be automatic qualifiers. Last year there were 12. That left 20 at-large bids, 5 of which were given to non P6 teams -- two to the WCC and 1 each to the American, CUSA and the Mountain West. It's almost impossible that a Patriot League team or a member of roughly 20 other leagues to get an NIT at-large under the current setup. Of course, one can argue that the "low" majors do better under the current selection process than they did under the old one because of the automatic qualifiers.
EDIT: You'd really have to have a NET of 75 or lower to be in the discussion for an at-large. It's hard to envision any PL team that has a such a ranking to either not win the regular season championship or the conference tournament.
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Post by CHC8485 on Mar 7, 2019 9:27:12 GMT -5
I'll say a loss to HC does not impact Bucknell's chances of an at-large NIT bid at all, becasue they have no chance of an at large to begin with.
Bucknell is 158 in the NCAA NET rating and 150 in Ken Pom.
While the PL has moved up in overall ranking in both NET (~19th) and Ken Pom (~22nd), even if Bucknell gets to the PL Final and loses at Colgate, there is no chance the NIT is giving an at large bid to the 140 - 150 ranked team in the country.
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Post by ndgradbuthcfan on Mar 7, 2019 11:26:43 GMT -5
If HC beats Bucknell, does that knock them out of the running for an NIT at large bid? HC would have no chance with a win. The NIT selection committee contains many Bucknell alums. Thank you rgs318, I thought my feeble attempt at humor went entirely unnoticed.
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Post by bringbackcaro on Mar 7, 2019 11:38:16 GMT -5
IMO, the secondary players could play a huge role in who wins this game. If the combination of Floyd-Grandison-Green plays to their capabilities (as they did vs LaughU, particularly in the 2nd half), HC is at least even with Bucknell's top 3 of McKenzie-Sestina-Moore/Sotos/Toomer. However, Bucknell could have a very significant advantage in their secondary players -- the leftovers of Moore/Sotos/Toomer, Funk, Meeks. Some key questions for HC's secondary group: - Will Benzan be able to play and, if so, how effective can he be after his injury?
- Can Butler find a sweet spot of not forcing things and letting the "leftover" offense from JF/JG/CG come to him?
- Assuming Grandison gets Moore, can Butler defend Kimball McKenzie?
- Of the 24 players who have played 40%+ minutes for Carmody at HC, Faw's 5.9% Assist Rate (4.8% in PL play) is by far the lowest of any player. If he is just going to look to fire away whenever he gets the ball, can he shoot at a higher percentage than he did against LaughU?
- Will Faw be able to guard Sestina and/or Moore without fouling?
- If Benzan is unable to play or move around effectively, can Copeland/Zignorski do anything to slow down whoever they are matched up with?
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Mar 7, 2019 11:41:48 GMT -5
Some of your bullets above are assuming we will play man-to-man. Will be interesting to see what defense we come out in and stay in for the first five minutes.
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Post by efg72 on Mar 7, 2019 11:47:29 GMT -5
Perhaps our best shot tonight is to go with the 2-3 , adjust as needed, and above all keep Floyd (and Faw when he subs in for Floyd) in around the basket. Concerned if we go straight man, they will pull Floyd outside and that could make for some tough minutes
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Mar 7, 2019 12:12:52 GMT -5
IMO, the secondary players could play a huge role in who wins this game. If the combination of Floyd-Grandison-Green plays to their capabilities (as they did vs LaughU, particularly in the 2nd half), HC is at least even with Bucknell's top 3 of McKenzie-Sestina-Moore/Sotos/Toomer. However, Bucknell could have a very significant advantage in their secondary players -- the leftovers of Moore/Sotos/Toomer, Funk, Meeks. Some key questions for HC's secondary group: - Will Benzan be able to play and, if so, how effective can he be after his injury?
- Can Butler find a sweet spot of not forcing things and letting the "leftover" offense from JF/JG/CG come to him?
- Assuming Grandison gets Moore, can Butler defend Kimball McKenzie?
- Of the 24 players who have played 40%+ minutes for Carmody at HC, Faw's 5.9% Assist Rate (4.8% in PL play) is by far the lowest of any player. If he is just going to look to fire away whenever he gets the ball, can he shoot at a higher percentage than he did against LaughU?
- Will Faw be able to guard Sestina and/or Moore without fouling?
- If Benzan is unable to play or move around effectively, can Copeland/Zignorski do anything to slow down whoever they are matched up with?
"Can Butler find a sweet spot of not forcing things and letting the "leftover" offense from JF/JG/CG come to him?" You continue with the nonsense of suggesting that Austin Butler should be some kind of secondary player. In PL games he has outscored and outrebounded both JG and CG and has a higher shooting percentage than both of them. He has taken 15 fewer field goal attempts than JG. In PL play he has a lower turnover rate than both JG and CG. He has shown the ability to draw fouls, taking as many free throws as CG and JG combined in PL games. These are all facts. If you believe at all in KenPom's calculations you can see that in PL games AB has a 105.1 O-rating to 94.0 for JG and 93.5 for CG. You went on the record early in stating that you didn't think AB was a very good player (remember where you ranked him on a long list of recent HC players?). He was playing injured earlier in the year. Every player makes mistakes but I think you feel you must defend your stubborn preconception of AB as you note and repeat each mistake he makes and overlook those of those players you have endorsed. It's like this business of "can't keep in front of the man he is guarding" or "player X blew by him"---re-watch the Lafayette game, or any other, and you'll see players blow by JG and see that every player, even JF, gets beat on occasion. I love JF, JG, and CG. AB is not a secondary player on this team.
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