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Post by KY Crusader 75 on May 4, 2019 8:29:30 GMT -5
With the scratch of Omaha Beach the Kentucky Derby picture blurred a great deal. Additionally the weather report calls for rain all day, so this could be a crap shoot. These three year olds are all lightly raced and most have never seen an "off track", so we can make some educated guesses based on breeding as far as who the mudders are. Rain or shine, we do have the pedigrees to see who might be able to handle this demanding distance.
I think I'm going to build my play around #8 Tacitus (my top choice" and last year's 2YO champion #16 Game Winner. Bob Baffert trains Game Winner and #17 Roadster (he edged Game Winner to win the Santa Anita Derby) and #5 Improbable. Improbable has a really puzzling pedigree with the sprint-oriented sire City Zip but the great A.P. Indy as the dam-sire, a tremendous stamina influence.
One longer shot I really like is #2 Tax with Arch as the sire and Giant's Causeway as dam-sire telling us he should relish the distance today. Tax finished second to Tacitus in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct and I hope he can run past the tiring horses in the stretch to finish in the exotics (exacta, trifecta, superfecta). #1 War of Will is another one with the pedigree to get the distance with War Front as his sire, but especially with the truly great Sadler's Wells (sire of the year in Great Britain and Ireland 14 times) as dam-sire, one of the top stamina influences of the past few decades. He must be included underneath in the exotics.#19 Spinoff is trained by Todd Pletcher and has Hard Spun as his sire. Hard Spun's foals have won an astonishing 27% of their races at 1&3/16th's miles and farther. He may his the board at 40-1. #10 Cutting Humor won the Sunland Derby (as did Mine The Bord the 50-1 Derby winner a few years back) and has picked up Money Mike Smith as his rider.
I expect to see a fast pace today. I don't know whether #7 Maximum Security (undefeated with all wins by 3+ lengths) will be the front runner but he'll certainly be right close and may try to take it all the way on the lead as he did in the Florida Derby. He also has a facile win in the mud at Gulfstream Park. The question with this runner is his pedigree as he has a very young sire, so we don't really know the typical capabilities of his runners.
In the Old Forester Turf Classic I like the chalk #12 Bricks and Mortar, the best turf runner in training, followed by #5 Raging Bull, a Chad Brown colt who I think will move forward in his second race as a 4YO. I'll try to pair one of them up with the Derby winner in what's called the "Bourbon Double".
Good luck to all with your wagers today
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Post by hchoops on May 4, 2019 8:42:19 GMT -5
Wow, Ky. You continue to amaze with your expertise. What Breezy is the football recruiting world, NAD is to Christmas, you are their equal in the Triple Crown sphere.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on May 4, 2019 10:37:46 GMT -5
Wow, Ky. You continue to amaze with your expertise. What Breezy is the football recruiting world, NAD is to Christmas, you are their equal in the Triple Crown sphere. It’s not expertise unless we win, of course. Update: hearing very good things about Improbable (I had been skeptical) and I’m going to use him more now
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Post by deep Purple on May 4, 2019 18:28:07 GMT -5
Did anyone hit the superfecta?
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Post by hchoops on May 4, 2019 18:37:58 GMT -5
Instead of winning $7. for second place in our family pool, I won $12. for first Grandchildren outnumber adults.
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Post by rgs318 on May 5, 2019 5:53:54 GMT -5
The horse I drew in the family pool was the one fouled that got the apparent winner disqualified. That was one scary race in the final turn and straightaway. My oldest granddaughter won (she thought) for the first time. With the DQ, the prize went to her maternal grandma. We then sat down for a game of L-R-C (and no one was DQ'd. I hope you all enjoyed a good Derby Day.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on May 5, 2019 9:05:48 GMT -5
What a brutal beat. Our "syndicate" (myself and 5 friends) had 8 runners finishing the Pick 4 and Pick 5 paying from $4,300 to $47,300. We were set for a nice payoff. We didn't have the biggest longshots covered and I asked my partners if they wanted to hedge and they all said no. With an additional $900 or so we could have guaranteed a $4,000 cash. Alas, it was not to be. So we "turn the page" and await the next opportunity.
Maximum Security did impede multiple other runners and should have been taken down. I don't know if he plans to run in the Preakness, but you can envision the hype for "Max's revenge".....
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on May 5, 2019 9:50:02 GMT -5
What a brutal beat. Our "syndicate" (myself and 5 friends) had 8 runners finishing the Pick 4 and Pick 5 paying from $4,300 to $47,300. We were set for a nice payoff. We didn't have the biggest longshots covered and I asked my partners if they wanted to hedge and they all said no. With an additional $900 or so we could have guaranteed a $4,000 cash. Alas, it was not to be. So we "turn the page" and await the next opportunity. Maximum Security did impede multiple other runners and should have been taken down. I don't know if he plans to run in the Preakness, but you can envision the hype for "Max's revenge"..... The steward-in-chief opined there was too much political correctness in the disqualification, and, in effect, a winner is the winner. For the steward-in-chief to overturn this ruling of the stewards though, would be an abridgment of states' rights, IMO. Saez is a very experienced and successful jockey.
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Post by hchoops on May 5, 2019 11:03:18 GMT -5
Now the lawyers enter I heard that the Max Security team is suing
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Post by sader1970 on May 5, 2019 14:56:47 GMT -5
“Horse sense is the thing a horse has which keeps it from betting on people”
-- W.C. Fields [courtesy Ed O'Donnell today on LinkedIn]
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Post by ndgradbuthcfan on May 6, 2019 9:33:36 GMT -5
Unfortunately, if invited to WH, Derby winner will not be able to use great quote "If I wanted to see a horse's ass, I would have come in second", because it did come in second. Quel dommage. Attended Kentucky Derby twice while at ND; saw Kauai King and Proud Clarion win.
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Post by timholycross on May 6, 2019 10:45:59 GMT -5
The situation did show how many people in the media are ignorant of horse racing. They acted like an objection/inquiry was something new prompted by the growth of replay in other sports....where, in fact, they have been using film/pictures in racing forever.
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Post by longsuffering on May 6, 2019 11:13:42 GMT -5
Unfortunately, if invited to WH, Derby winner will not be able to use great quote "If I wanted to see a horse's ass, I would have come in second", because it did come in second. Quel dommage. Attended Kentucky Derby twice while at ND; saw Kauai King and Proud Clarion win. Did you get to the Indy 500 while you were in South Bend? How would you compare these two iconic American sporting events?
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on May 6, 2019 12:36:59 GMT -5
Unfortunately, if invited to WH, Derby winner will not be able to use great quote "If I wanted to see a horse's ass, I would have come in second", because it did come in second. Quel dommage. Attended Kentucky Derby twice while at ND; saw Kauai King and Proud Clarion win. Did you get to the Indy 500 while you were in South Bend? How would you compare these two iconic American sporting events? One is exciting and challenges your intellect and you can bet on it; the other is extraordinarily boring, the essence of monotony.
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Post by hchoops on May 6, 2019 12:41:49 GMT -5
Ky, Tell us how you really feel.
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Post by ndgradbuthcfan on May 7, 2019 4:04:29 GMT -5
Unfortunately, if invited to WH, Derby winner will not be able to use great quote "If I wanted to see a horse's ass, I would have come in second", because it did come in second. Quel dommage. Attended Kentucky Derby twice while at ND; saw Kauai King and Proud Clarion win. Did you get to the Indy 500 while you were in South Bend? How would you compare these two iconic American sporting events? Never did and I agree with KY.
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Post by Tom on May 7, 2019 8:28:35 GMT -5
An appeal has been filed. No surprise! It should be interesting. Appeal Denied! There was also talk about a lawsuit. I hope the courts would stay out of it and let the governing body of the sport deal with internal issues
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on May 18, 2019 17:49:40 GMT -5
War of Will and Owendale look to offer the best value in the upcoming Preakness
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on May 18, 2019 18:34:18 GMT -5
They finished 1-3. I double keyed them with a few runners in the tri and super but did not have the 10. Had I also done a supplemental double key with “all” -//the trifecta paid $4,700 for$1.00.
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Post by longsuffering on May 18, 2019 21:01:06 GMT -5
War of Will wins. Good call.
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Post by alum on May 20, 2019 6:59:56 GMT -5
They finished 1-3. I double keyed them with a few runners in the tri and super but did not have the 10. Had I also done a supplemental double key with “all” -//the trifecta paid $4,700 for$1.00. Yes, but you live to play another day.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jun 8, 2019 12:14:50 GMT -5
Today is Belmont Stakes day and Belmont Park has put together an extraordinary card of stakes races. The Belmont Stakes itself often seems to run true to form--very different from the Kentucky Derby or the Preakness. The Belmont typically has fewer runners (10 today, often 18-20 for the Derby) so runners are less likely to get into trouble from traffic congestion. Belmont also is a long track with big, sweeping turns, so runners are less likely to be forced wide around turns. Importantly, the race is long enough that a runner who gets into trouble may be able to make a comeback and make up lost lengths. The marathon (1&1/2 miles) length calls for a stamina pedigree and we have some runners today who have such breeding and could surprise. With all that said, I think that Tacitus, the likely favorite, will be very hard to beat. He has had five weeks of recovery and careful training since his strong showing in the Kentucky Derby. He has the breeding to handle the distance . He'll have to race closer to the front than he usually does because, oddly enough, the Belmont is seldom won by a deep closer. My sources say he has been working extremely well. War of Will got a perfect trip to win the Preakness and I like him a lot--love his breeding with Sadler's Wells as the dam-sire. He will run closer to the front and then we'll see what he has left in the final furlong. We'll give the edge to Tacitus. I liked Tax in the Derby with his Arch/Giant's Causeway breeding and I'm going to toss out that weak performance on a sloppy track and include him today. Spinoff is very, very interesting--sire Hard Spun's foals have been extremely successful at the "classic distances" of 1&1/4, 1 & 3/16, and 1&1/2. His form is also clouded by the poor run in the sloppy Derby. Sir Winston and Intrepid Heart are also strong entries. The Japanese horse Master Fencer is an enigma--came from way, way back in the Derby to finish 4 lengths behind the winner with a great ride by Leparoux--he'll need another strategy today. Joeveia will likely go for the lead and be trailed by Spinoff and War of Will. Joevia should fade badly on the last turn.
So, in win betting or in verticals (exacta, trifecta, superfecta) I'm not going to try to beat Tacitus except maybe a few $$ on Will and Spinoff. I hope to be alive to 5 or 6 in the horizontals (pick 3-4-6) as the payoffs for entries other than Will and Tacitus will be quite zesty.
Good luck to any who play today.
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Post by hchoops on Jun 8, 2019 16:41:28 GMT -5
A different language.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jun 8, 2019 18:19:14 GMT -5
Tacitus did not come through, finishing second. I had a big day as I lost my Belmont trifecta bets but cashed the pick three 9 times withSir Winston and that paid nicely. Look back at my earlier post—very surprised that Joeivia kept going and finished in the money.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Sept 11, 2019 19:54:29 GMT -5
Very sad news coming to light now: 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify failed a drug test after winning the Santa Anita Derby and thus should not have been allowed to run in the Kentucky Derby. It is alleged that California racing authorities covered up the failed test. Things don’t look good for trainer Bob Baffert....
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