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Post by KY Crusader 75 on May 8, 2019 15:47:36 GMT -5
I've long subscribed to the great Early Weaver's theory that you win baseball games with great pitching, great defense, and by scoring runs in bunches. I don't think anyone would dispute the great pitching element. There may be some discussion about the importance of defense versus offense, as in would you rather have a weak hitting brilliant fielder at shortstop (e.g. Ozzie Smith) or a weaker fielder with some pop in his bat (e.g. Hanley Ramirez. The essence of the "three run homer" argument involves OBP (get the little guys on base--a walk is as good as a hit) and the question of whether you want to play "Whitey ball" (Whitey Herzog) and scratch out runs with stolen bases, sacrifice bunts, etc. I've weighed in on this board on my frustration with Coach DiCenzo's love of the sacrifice bunt. I believe some other posters agree.
At the end of the regular season we made some comparisons between Holy Cross and Navy as HC had a better OBP but Navy had the better slugging average and outscored HC. I thought it would be interesting to look at the PL game line scores and see how HC scored its 123 runs and how Navy scored its 151. Who eked out runs and who scored in bunches? First the disclaimers: I do understand that 5 one-run innings produce more runs than 1 three-run inning; that scoring 5 runs in the top of the 9th when you're ahead by 9 runs is not as productive as a single run in the bottom of the 10th when you're tied; that some players are horrible hitters and may be better off bunting, etc, etc. Here's what I found out
Stat= Holy Cross/ Navy
Batting Avg= .271/.283
OBP= .393/.375
Slugging= .382/.428
Sac Hits= 24/11
Stolen Bases= 24/2 WOW!
HR= 11/21
Runs= 123/151
Runs In an Inning= HC Count/Navy Count
1= 44/28-----Holy Cross scored a single run in 44 innings while Navy did so in 28 innings
2= 14/13
3= 6/11
4= 4/5
5= 2/1
6= 0/0
7= 1/3
8= 0/1
9= 0/0
10=0/1
Thus Holy Cross scored in 71 different innings while Navy scored in 63 different innings. However, by scoring in bunches, Navy scored a lot more runs than HC: 151 to 123.
I don't suggest that this rudimentary study proves the folly of small ball--just thought some baseball fans might find it interesting
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Post by hchoops on May 8, 2019 15:57:45 GMT -5
Thanks KY
You have some time before the Preakness
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Post by longsuffering on May 8, 2019 20:07:06 GMT -5
The Earl Weaver approach was just discussed on the Red Sox radio broadcast tonight from Camden Yards. Jim Palmer is a broadcaster for the Orioles and was telling the Red Sox guys the Orioles defense got him into the HOF. He pitched 19 years in the majors without ever giving up a grand slam. One year the Orioles pitching staff had four 20 game winners.
HC doesn't have overpowering hitting and pitching, so I like the SBs and sacrifices.
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Post by Tom on May 8, 2019 21:13:12 GMT -5
Are we talking about the GM or the manager?
Play the hand you're dealt
I'm a situational guy. I'm more of a fan of sacrificing when there's a runner on 2nd and if I get him to 3rd he can score on an out. Who's at the plate matters. Who's on the mound matters. Is it a strikeout pitcher or a pitch to contact guy? As you say, is it Hanley Ramirez or Ozzie Smith? Also who's on deck. Is it my number 8 hitter, so the next guy is even less likely to deliver, or is it my number 9 guy so I'm at the top of the order next. Who do I have on the mound and what inning is it/ Do I have a reasonable expectation that one run will be a difference maker?
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Post by alum on May 9, 2019 6:58:35 GMT -5
I have expressed my agreement with KY on bunting every time this comes up and I continue it here. Tom is right that there are some instances where it makes sense, but I think that they are not common. On the issue of trying to score in bunches, I would also suggest that big innings drive out pitchers and force the opponent into the bullpen. This is particularly important in college baseball weekend series with doubleheaders.
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Post by hcbball on May 9, 2019 7:40:29 GMT -5
Navy won all 7 games that Song started, and he finished with a sub 1.5 ERA. That's why they won the PL, he didn't need a lot of run support.
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Post by Ray on May 9, 2019 7:45:26 GMT -5
The more appropriate adage would seem to be "if you play for one run, you'll only get one run". I'm less angered about the bunting than most here... on a team bereft of power, the calculus is different than if Alex Cora were calling for sacrifices multiple times a night. There's also the argument that the bunts put pressure on the defense and will generate more errors from college players than MLB players. There's also New England weather to consider, as the average temp in HC games vs, say Navy games is probably pretty different. Looking at the NCAA leaderboard: www.ncaa.com/stats/baseball/d1/current/team/498HC ranks t-11th in the country in sacrifice bunts, but it's an interesting mix of low-D1 programs and power schools on the first page of that leaderboard. Doesn't seem to tell us much... except that the mid-point on that leaderboard is 22 sacrifices to our 38, which means that we're above average by less than half a bunt per game. In other words--and I know you'll all be shocked to hear this--we might be blowing a minor issue out of proportion. |
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Post by hchoops on May 9, 2019 8:11:30 GMT -5
Navy won all 7 games that Song started, and he finished with a sub 1.5 ERA. That's why they won the PL, he didn't need a lot of run support. Navy also won 11 games that Song did not pitch. They averaged greater than 1 run per game more than HC. They certainly needed those runs when their other starters of significantly lesser talent pitched. Even counting Song’s excellent ERA their team ERA was 4.39. HC’s was 3.74. |
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Post by Tom on May 9, 2019 8:16:47 GMT -5
The more appropriate adage would seem to be "if you play for one run, you'll only get one run". I'm less angered about the bunting than most here... on a team bereft of power, the calculus is different than if Alex Cora were calling for sacrifices multiple times a night. There's also the argument that the bunts put pressure on the defense and will generate more errors from college players than MLB players. There's also New England weather to consider, as the average temp in HC games vs, say Navy games is probably pretty different. Looking at the NCAA leaderboard: www.ncaa.com/stats/baseball/d1/current/team/498HC ranks t-11th in the country in sacrifice bunts, but it's an interesting mix of low-D1 programs and power schools on the first page of that leaderboard. Doesn't seem to tell us much... except that the mid-point on that leaderboard is 22 sacrifices to our 38, which means that we're above average by less than half a bunt per game. In other words--and I know you'll all be shocked to hear this--we might be blowing a minor issue out of proportion. In the bottom of the 9th in a tie game, nothing wrong with playing for one. In terms of Alex Cora and bunting - not thinking sacrifice, but with the 8 and 9 hitters fighting the Mendoza line (and JBJ is well below it right now), if the D is going to shift on you, giving you a base hit if you lay down a good bunt, then lay down the damn bunt and keep doing it until the defense takes it away. |
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Post by hchoops on May 9, 2019 8:21:07 GMT -5
JBJ made a pretty good catch last night.
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Post by hcpucks on May 9, 2019 8:55:57 GMT -5
anything can happen......Last year playoffs.......HC beat Navy and Song 4-2 w our #2/3 pitcher DC going in game 1. Great start, strategy (it worked out) and HC positioned to win the series. HC # 1 starter PM pitches 9 scoreless innings and we lose in the 10th in Game 2 with plenty of chances to win and advance. Game 3 we lose 4-1. Done. The entire pitching staff is back from last year and the same 3 starting pitchers are back for this years series. Good luck. We shall see.
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Post by hchoops on May 9, 2019 9:29:28 GMT -5
We have to beat Army before we can consider Navy.
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Post by rgs318 on May 9, 2019 9:34:42 GMT -5
...and the Lafayette bats may have something to say about who makes it to the finals.
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Post by hcpride on May 9, 2019 10:34:26 GMT -5
I like our chances in the best-of-three series given our two top starters. (And starter 3 looked very good last game...not that we'll go to a game 3)
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