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Post by WorcesterGray on Nov 30, 2019 17:56:36 GMT -5
The "four factors of basketball success" were identified by Dean Oliver (a major influence on Pomeroy's work) as stats that were generally predictive of success. The four critical areas of game play, he argued, were scoring (EFG%), protecting the ball (TO%), crashing the boards (R %), and attacking the rim to maximize free throw opportunities (FTR). (These offensive categories have their equally important defensive counterparts, so technically "eight factors.") A summary and the math of it all, for those interested:
Watched this metric evolve for the team (and its opponents) last year, and though it's still early in the season, I thought it might be interesting for some to track again. Here is where Holy Cross ranked at the end of last year, and where it ranks this season (qualitatively described as Excellent, Good, Average, Fair, or Poor, based on quintile within the 350+ D1 clubs.). The percentages that fed into those rankings can be found at the valuable Team Rankings.com web site.
2018-19 (Final)
Offensive EFG% - 91st, Good TO% - 34th, Excellent
OR% - 342nd, Poor
FTR - 349th, Poor
Defensive EFG% - 313th, Poor
TO% - 20th, Excellent
DR% - 313th, Poor
FTR - 28th, Excellent
2019-20 (through November 30th)
Offensive
EFG% - 153rd, Average
TO% - 173rd, Average
OR% - 277th, Poor
FTR - 330th, Poor
Defensive
EFG% - 330th, Poor
TO% - 339th, Poor
DR% - 324th, Poor
FTR - 204th, Average
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Post by longsuffering on Nov 30, 2019 18:31:24 GMT -5
Let's face it, we aren't playing well and unlike in football, the PL won't be our safe space. We have a coach with determination. That's a start.
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Post by efg72 on Nov 30, 2019 19:19:36 GMT -5
Not so sure you are right
Watched every team play at least twice and see us being more than competitive once Nelson settles on a rotation and defense. See us being no worse than 8-10 in conference with a shot at 11-7
Both would be positive given the transition
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Nov 30, 2019 19:48:03 GMT -5
Not so sure you are right Watched every team play at least twice and see us being more than competitive once Nelson settles on a rotation and defense. See us being no worse than 8-10 in conference with a shot at 11-7 Both would be positive given the transition That would be one massive leap forward from where we are now |
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Post by efg72 on Nov 30, 2019 19:52:15 GMT -5
KY will pm
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Post by hcpride on Dec 1, 2019 8:02:18 GMT -5
About 10 years ago we started 0-8 enroute to an 8-win season. PL competition was weaker (v us)...this year this may not be the case and our 0-6 start is pretty ominous.
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Post by efg72 on Dec 1, 2019 8:17:42 GMT -5
Agree it is a major jump from today,but figure part of developing the kids this year will be to adjust the plan and put them in a position to win games. If and when that happens, it appears as if this season there will be many similar teams in the PL-
2 reliable scorers, less than avg defense, questionable offensive rebounding and solid guard play.
Look we could be limited to 3-4 wins in the league, but I think we will make adjustments defensively and the young kids will continue to improve
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Post by sarasota on Dec 1, 2019 9:52:14 GMT -5
Too often on offense we lapse into what I call "NBAball," four guys stand still around the perimeter and watch the 5th player attempt kamikazes with three defenders draped all over him. You'll see certain NBA teams do this for entire quarters. Boring as hell. It works in the NBA because audience will pay to watch Michael Jordan do the kamikazes. At least Carmody had one other player moving without the ball. Watch for it. We will inevitably lapse into it. Yes. This is a pet peeve of mine.
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Post by rgs318 on Dec 1, 2019 9:55:11 GMT -5
I remember seeing that with the two coaches before. Carmody. It is awful to see and mostly ineffective. It makes me wonder why the athletes themselves try it. Of course they believe they can make it work, but most of the time it means no points, no rebounds and a loss at the end of the game. I am sure Coach Nelson has a plan in the works that we will eventually see - [perhaps against PL opponents].
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Post by sarasota on Dec 1, 2019 10:53:27 GMT -5
NBAball is not a planned offense. For some reason, the teams slips into it, maybe when they're tired. Or when they have a player who is perfectly willing to try the kamikazes.......think Butler. Remember, a kamikaze is not just slashing to the rim. It's doing so when you know three bigs are going to greet you at the rim........think Butler.
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