|
|
Post by Sons of Vaval on Jan 13, 2022 9:34:18 GMT -5
Surprised (although I guess I shouldn't be?) that no thread for the game tonight has been started.
NJJ, if you're reading, does AU figure to be significantly shorthanded again tonight?
Pomeroy projects a 72-71 win for HC.
|
|
|
|
Post by hc17 on Jan 13, 2022 11:06:34 GMT -5
Surprised (although I guess I shouldn't be?) that no thread for the game tonight has been started. NJJ, if you're reading, does AU figure to be significantly shorthanded again tonight? Pomeroy projects a 72-71 win for HC. In a similar fashion to HC, American fans must be driving themselves crazy with the decline of it's own program under Mike Brennan relative to the success of Jeff Jones. |
|
|
|
Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jan 13, 2022 12:54:17 GMT -5
Understanding fully that the only statistic that counts is the final score, I have nevertheless set some benchmarks that I'd like to see the Crusaders hit tonight
Statistic=Benchmark----insight
Holy Cross Offense
2 Pt Percentage= >50%---HC is 3-2 when we hit this benchmark, 0-11 when we don't. AU's opponents have averaged 55.9% this year
3 Pt Percentage= > 30%---this is a matter of averting disaster, i.e. we can't afford a 2 for 16 here. HC has hit 30%+ in 10 of 16 games. AU Opponents= 36.7%
Turnovers=<20%--HC has achieved this is 8 of 16 games. AU Opponents have turned over the ball on 16.3% of possessions.
Offensive Rebounds= >30%---HC has hit this mark in 7 of 16 games. AU Opponents have grabbed 29.1% of O-boards
Holy Cross Defense
Effective FG Percentage=<53%---HC is 3-3 when we hold opponents under 53% and 0-10 when we do not. AU's EFG is 48.5% this season
Offensive rebounds=<23%---HC is 3-4 when we hit this mark, 0-9 when we do not. AU has grabbed 23.1% of its o-board to date
3 Point percentage= <33%---HC is 3-5 when we hit this mark and 0-8 when we do not. AU is shooting 31.8% on its threes this year
Hitting the benchmarks
Hit 6 or 7= guaranteed victory (although 2 Point % is of paramount importance)
Hit 5 of the 7= very likely win
Hit 4 of the 7= likely win
Hit 3 of the 7= likely loss
Hit 1 or 2of the 7= very likely loss
Hit 0 of 7= guaranteed loss
I do understand that you can game this and say "suppose you hit 6 of the 7 but go 0 for 35 on two point shots"---but let's be reasonable
I'm looking forward to the game. I think we have a good chance to win and have so predicted
|
|
|
|
Post by hchoops on Jan 13, 2022 13:56:33 GMT -5
I believe that one factor is how many 3s we take vs. 2s.
If we take a higher than usual percentage of 3s, and shoot them as poorly as we have been, that is a very bad sign.
|
|
|
|
Post by notjuanjones on Jan 13, 2022 13:56:49 GMT -5
Surprised (although I guess I shouldn't be?) that no thread for the game tonight has been started. NJJ, if you're reading, does AU figure to be significantly shorthanded again tonight? Pomeroy projects a 72-71 win for HC. Don't know for sure, because the scale keeps changing on people in protocols-some have just gone in, some are almost able to get out. Generally, we were hoping to get some folks out by the end of this week that have been out for the last couple of games. Whether that's in time for tonight...I don't know. I simply don't know why we played the last two games with seven and six players, respectively, out of the lineup, including multiple starters. I can only guess that the PL is going to be much more stringent on total games played going into the tournament this year, and if a school has the minimum eight-even if many of those eight are walk-ons-they're expected to play. I just think, no matter the school, that it's really unfair to the kids that have to play so shorthanded. Our guys competed as well as we could against BU, but we had no chance. |
|
|
|
Post by sader1970 on Jan 13, 2022 13:59:58 GMT -5
KY, you have obviously included the 2 D3 games (wins) in your calculations.
Without getting into whether those games “count” or not, do you think your analysis would be significantly different if you excluded those games?
|
|
|
|
Post by longsuffering on Jan 13, 2022 14:10:12 GMT -5
Surprised (although I guess I shouldn't be?) that no thread for the game tonight has been started. NJJ, if you're reading, does AU figure to be significantly shorthanded again tonight? Pomeroy projects a 72-71 win for HC. Don't know for sure, because the scale keeps changing on people in protocols-some have just gone in, some are almost able to get out. Generally, we were hoping to get some folks out by the end of this week that have been out for the last couple of games. Whether that's in time for tonight...I don't know. I simply don't know why we played the last two games with seven and six players, respectively, out of the lineup, including multiple starters. I can only guess that the PL is going to be much more stringent on total games played going into the tournament this year, and if a school has the minimum eight-even if three or four of those eight are walk-ons-they're expected to play. I just think, no matter the school, that it's really unfair to the kids that have to play so shorthanded. Our guys competed as well as we could against BU, but we had no chance. If AU is healthy in the PLT and is the best team they will go to the NCAA. Your players are building natural plus vaccine immunity now and will be super healthy in the playoffs. The toughest luck would be for a team to have an outbreak during the PLT after being very careful all season long. OTH, I hope Omicron burns itself out by March. |
|
|
|
Post by notjuanjones on Jan 13, 2022 14:15:39 GMT -5
Don't know for sure, because the scale keeps changing on people in protocols-some have just gone in, some are almost able to get out. Generally, we were hoping to get some folks out by the end of this week that have been out for the last couple of games. Whether that's in time for tonight...I don't know. I simply don't know why we played the last two games with seven and six players, respectively, out of the lineup, including multiple starters. I can only guess that the PL is going to be much more stringent on total games played going into the tournament this year, and if a school has the minimum eight-even if three or four of those eight are walk-ons-they're expected to play. I just think, no matter the school, that it's really unfair to the kids that have to play so shorthanded. Our guys competed as well as we could against BU, but we had no chance. If AU is healthy in the PLT and is the best team they will go to the NCAA. Your players are building natural plus vaccine immunity now and will be super healthy in the playoffs. The toughest luck would be for a team to have an outbreak during the PLT after being very careful all season long. OTH, I hope Omicron burns itself out by March. Fair points, but seeding/tiebreakers will definitely be affected by conference/head to head record – which will materially be impacted by these games. There's no doubt in my mind that we would have beaten Lehigh with a full squad. But, we didn't, and that L could be important at the end of the season when determining, for example, finishing sixth or seventh-that is, whether you have to do the play-in round or not. |
|
|
|
Post by Non Alum Dave on Jan 13, 2022 14:20:11 GMT -5
I want to see this quartet get the lion's share of the minutes going forward: GG, Louth, MT, and Bubba. If RJJ is not going to be back, I don't really care who the 5th guy is. I just think these guys provide at least one strength without glaring weaknesses - GG's ability to score in bunches; Louth's bulk; the little bit of everything that MT gives, and Bubba's shooting, and a bit of toughness he brings to the table. I just think having them on the floor gives the team the best chance of winning. MT and Louth's playing time should not be going up and down like a yoyo at this point.
|
|
|
|
Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jan 13, 2022 14:31:07 GMT -5
KY, you have obviously included the 2 D3 games (wins) in your calculations. Without getting into whether those games “count” or not, do you think your analysis would be significantly different if you excluded those games? I don't--I think those games show what numbers we can achieve against a weak defense and weak offense. |
|
|
|
Post by WorcesterGray on Jan 13, 2022 15:07:49 GMT -5
I believe that one factor is how many 3s we take vs. 2s. If we take a higher than usual percentage of 3s, and shoot them as poorly as we have been, that is a very bad sign. HC and AU have been remarkably similar this year in their (a) preference for twos, (b) ineptness defending them, and (c) poor shooting from deep. But American has been a better shooting team inside the arc - so it would be a very good sign for Holy Cross if it's AU that chooses to fire from three more than usual.
Two-Point Rate Holy Cross, 71.4% (14th). 70.6% over last three games. American, 70.9% (19th). 77% over last three games.
Opponent 2FG%
Holy Cross, 56.9% (339th). 53.7% over last three games American, 55.9% (335th). 50% over last three games.
3FG% Holy Cross, 31.7% (250th). 28.3% over last three games. American, 31.8% (248th). 26.5% over last three games.
2FG% Holy Cross, 43.8% (325th), 48.8% over last three games American, 48.8% (207th), 47.4% over last three games
|
|
|
|
Post by hchoops on Jan 13, 2022 15:19:09 GMT -5
Obviously a team has to make more than 33.3% of its threes to be a better shot than 50% of its 2s.
Both these teams should take a very limited number of 3s.
|
|
|
|
Post by WorcesterGray on Jan 13, 2022 16:47:46 GMT -5
Right, my error - correcting . . .
Also added 2FG% numbers.
|
|
|
|
Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jan 13, 2022 16:59:40 GMT -5
I want to see this quartet get the lion's share of the minutes going forward: GG, Louth, MT, and Bubba. If RJJ is not going to be back, I don't really care who the 5th guy is. I just think these guys provide at least one strength without glaring weaknesses - GG's ability to score in bunches; Louth's bulk; the little bit of everything that MT gives, and Bubba's shooting, and a bit of toughness he brings to the table. I just think having them on the floor gives the team the best chance of winning. MT and Louth's playing time should not be going up and down like a yoyo at this point. Bubba's last 3 games (although his season-to-date numbers are also impressive) Caveat: small sample--just three games 81 minutes 42 points 5-7 on twos= .714 7-13 on threes = .538 11-15 on free throws= .733, pretty goof but the bigger issue is getting to the line that often 8 rebounds 3 assists 2 turnovers 1 block' 1 steal 4 personal fouls That's excellent production on offense. I have no statistical analysis of his defense |
|
|
|
Post by crusader1970 on Jan 13, 2022 17:00:19 GMT -5
KY, you have obviously included the 2 D3 games (wins) in your calculations. Without getting into whether those games “count” or not, do you think your analysis would be significantly different if you excluded those games? But, since we will not be playing any more teams like Regis and Mt St Vincent, doesn't including those games in your analysis skew any conclusions of how we can expect to perform against PL competition? |
|
|
|
Post by sader1970 on Jan 13, 2022 17:27:23 GMT -5
KY may be assuming that some PL teams are as weak as Regis and Mount!😂
Let’s hope Nelson doesn’t get overconfident and schedule Nichols next season!😉
|
|
|
|
Post by efg72 on Jan 13, 2022 17:37:28 GMT -5
Let’s hope Nelson runs the table or 70% of it
Or
We have a new leader in place by April 1
|
|
|
|
Post by WorcesterGray on Jan 13, 2022 17:43:46 GMT -5
I want to see this quartet get the lion's share of the minutes going forward: GG, Louth, MT, and Bubba. If RJJ is not going to be back, I don't really care who the 5th guy is. I think Kyrell has to play 30 - 35 minutes. Really, nobody on the team can score at all three levels like he can - willing to put up the sub-par defense and some bad judgments, and let him grow faster.
Curious that since Luc's become the de facto "point,"we seem to be figuring out how to minimize some mistakes..
TO% Vs. Navy 24.2% vs. Loyola 15.5% vs. Lafayette 9.3% vs. Lehigh 5.9%
|
|
|
|
Post by sader1970 on Jan 13, 2022 17:51:17 GMT -5
You know, I bet Nelson is a very frustrated person. Not just because of all the losses but because he can't figure out why his players aren't as good as he was as a player. They can't do what he did.
That's something that almost none of our past coaches had to think about. Carmody? Nope. Brown? Probably not. Kearney? Nope. Ralph? Nope (the "Boys of '67" might disagree but my opinion was he was a very average player). Raynor? Don't think so. Not to you get to Blaney did we have a coach who was probably better as a player than his own players (Ron Jr. an exception).
|
|
|
|
Post by sader1970 on Jan 13, 2022 17:53:23 GMT -5
Hope you're right, WooGray but is it possible that the competition got progressively weaker in each succeeding game?
|
|
|
|
Post by WorcesterGray on Jan 13, 2022 18:00:18 GMT -5
You know, I bet Nelson is a very frustrated person. Not just because of all the losses but because he can't figure out why his players aren't as good as he was as a player. They can't do what he did. I think this is spot on. In almost any sport, few of the best players become particularly good coaches/managers - but there's a long list of very average players who excel at running teams.
I hope this works out well for him and the staff, but if not, maybe we should consider a hypothetical guy who never played beyond JV in college rather than an All-American.
|
|
|
|
Post by ndgradbuthcfan on Jan 13, 2022 18:00:22 GMT -5
Cutting down on turnovers is nice but not helpful if you can't score.
I saw Blaney play a lot and he wasn't that good (Potter, Vicens, Doran, etc.)
I agree that he is frustrated, however. Nelson, that is.
Wasn't going to watch tonight after the Lehigh debacle but changed my mind. Hope springs eternal.
|
|
|
|
Post by bison137 on Jan 13, 2022 18:00:53 GMT -5
Obviously a team has to make more than 33.3% of its threes to be a better shot than 50% of its 2s. Both these teams should take a very limited number of 3s. if everything is considered, a team needs to shoot significantly better than 33.3% on threes to be as good as 50% on twos. That is because players shooting threes draw a significantly fewer number of fouls. Therefore they don’t get to the line as much, plus they don’t help their team get into the bonus, and also they don’t get opposing players into foul trouble. |
|
|
|
Post by WorcesterGray on Jan 13, 2022 18:01:43 GMT -5
Hope you're right, WooGray but is it possible that the competition got progressively weaker in each succeeding game? Yep. But Lehigh's 3-1 and beat Colgate, so who knows? |
|
|
|
Post by longsuffering on Jan 13, 2022 18:01:45 GMT -5
I want to see this quartet get the lion's share of the minutes going forward: GG, Louth, MT, and Bubba. If RJJ is not going to be back, I don't really care who the 5th guy is. I just think these guys provide at least one strength without glaring weaknesses - GG's ability to score in bunches; Louth's bulk; the little bit of everything that MT gives, and Bubba's shooting, and a bit of toughness he brings to the table. I just think having them on the floor gives the team the best chance of winning. MT and Louth's playing time should not be going up and down like a yoyo at this point. Speaking of glaring, Rab's awkwardness trying to catch the ball last game was tough to watch. When a big and a point guard have been practicing together for three or four years you hope they learn the most advantageous way for the big to position his feet and body and the best side, height, speed for the PG to pass the ball to him to maximize whatever athletic fluidity the big man has in converting the feed to two points. Hopefully it becomes second nature like Brady hitting Gronk for six points, not an adventure every game. HC is at a disadvantage as we have no players who have practiced or played together for three or four years and our true pg is hurt. Perhaps that means our raw talent is greater than the won loss record indicates and time is more on our side than the league as a whole. That would lead to an expectation of a better record the second time around the league and a puncher's chance to do something in the PLT. |
|
