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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jan 2, 2024 16:00:37 GMT -5
Short window of opportunity on this one-sorry- as HC's first PL tilt is at Bucknell at 700 PM Wednesday. We have our predictions from before the season started but we all should now have a better feel for the team's strengths and weaknesses. So, please take a crack at how many games HC will win during the PL regular season (18 games) and playoffs. Of course, providing your insightful comments and a precise number of wins. broken down by regular season and playoffs, makes for more entertaining reading. Good luck to you and to our Crusaders.
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Post by WCHC Sports on Jan 2, 2024 16:13:25 GMT -5
I think we'll win a third of our games. I'm not confident, but I think we'll be hotter later, than early, with underclassman featuring prominently.
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Post by sader1970 on Jan 2, 2024 16:14:32 GMT -5
Always first!😂 I’m down for 8-9. No real insights but see us at roughly .500 against a league that’s not especially strong this season. But, being mediocre/middling even against poor competition is a step up from the last 4-5 seasons.
edit: our radio guy types faster than I do apparently!
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Post by ndgradbuthcfan on Jan 2, 2024 16:25:36 GMT -5
Concerning HC and the Red Sox, I've been a cockeyed optimist my whole life so why change now? 8/9 wins.
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Post by hcmawfawo on Jan 2, 2024 17:42:03 GMT -5
I think 8-9 but voting 10 as an act of confidence that better days are upon us. All of the coaching, injury rehabbing, and program repositioning start to bear fruit here and now in 2024. Looking forward to some tenacious, inspired games where the team earns wins. GoCrossGo
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Post by efg72 on Jan 2, 2024 18:01:12 GMT -5
We get to 10-8 and win one in the playoffs
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Post by rgs318 on Jan 2, 2024 18:34:40 GMT -5
I went with 9 wins in PL regular season and one win in the playoffs...the start of better days.
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Post by newfieguy74 on Jan 2, 2024 19:23:38 GMT -5
I'm going with 4, but looking forward to the team proving my short term pessimism to be unfounded.
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Post by longsuffering on Jan 2, 2024 22:25:43 GMT -5
I picked 10-11 with Bucky as the first victim.
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Post by Crosser on Jan 2, 2024 23:40:07 GMT -5
I’ll stick with my original guess of 10 PL wins. And what the heck, we’ll still win the PLT!
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Post by hc6774 on Jan 3, 2024 8:06:33 GMT -5
8-9 PL wins... no change from preseason poll
hoping for 5+ home wins
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Post by timholycross on Jan 3, 2024 8:26:03 GMT -5
8-9.
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Post by alum on Jan 3, 2024 8:34:38 GMT -5
I said 8-9. I thought I would try to predict against whom the wins would come but found that hard. Based on what we know right now, the only team that I think is a prohibitive favorite against our guys is Colgate. Unfortunately, there are no teams against whom I would say we should be favored. DP is a good coach and there will be nights when things click. We will get some wins.
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Post by Tom on Jan 3, 2024 8:41:29 GMT -5
Get swept by the top 3 teams in the league. Split the games with the bottom 6. Probably puts HC in the play in game. Young team playing better as the kids gain experience advances to the quarter final for the first time since 2019. 6 + 1 = 7
Just a wild guess. So many freshmen minutes, I expect wild inconsistency. Throw in a little "live by the three, die by the three" philosophy and almost anything can happen against a weak league. Coach Paulsen commented that the team still needs to lay some foundational defensive pieces. Nothing to focus on other than basketball for next few weeks. How the D matures during this time will tell a lot about how this squad performs down the stretch
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Jan 3, 2024 9:02:13 GMT -5
Get swept by the top 3 teams in the league. I don't think that's a given. Might be if the top three were all top 200 teams...but outside of Colgate, do we not think we can pick off a game against Lehigh or BU, who are ranked as the next two teams by Pomeroy? Lehigh is 1-8 against D1 opponents. Yeah, we stink...but so does just about everyone else. I think going around .500 in the league is a possibility.
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Post by trimster on Jan 3, 2024 9:17:10 GMT -5
Get swept by the top 3 teams in the league. I don't think that's a given. Might be if the top three were all top 200 teams...but outside of Colgate, do we not think we can pick off a game against Lehigh or BU, who are ranked as the next two teams by Pomeroy? Lehigh is 1-8 against D1 opponents. Yeah, we stink...but so does just about everyone else. I think going around .500 in the league is a possibility. Lehigh and Lafayette have both played pretty tough D1 opponents so their awful combined record non-con could be deceptive.
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Post by Tom on Jan 3, 2024 10:44:50 GMT -5
Get swept by the top 3 teams in the league. I don't think that's a given. Might be if the top three were all top 200 teams...but outside of Colgate, do we not think we can pick off a game against Lehigh or BU, who are ranked as the next two teams by Pomeroy? Lehigh is 1-8 against D1 opponents. Yeah, we stink...but so does just about everyone else. I think going around .500 in the league is a possibility. Yes it is a possibility. We might steal a game against #2 or #3. We might also gain a sweep against some lower teams. Right now we've got five freshmen playing meaningful minutes. In my opinion that is a recipe for inconsistency. Heck I said my analysis was a wild guess Right now, Mr Massey thinks Bucknell is a middle of the pack team. It will be interesting to see how the guys do on the road tonight against a 300-ish team, probably missing our most experienced fourth year senior. My prediction: At some point tonight, the Bucknell announcer will annoy me.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jan 3, 2024 11:28:22 GMT -5
I don't think that's a given. Might be if the top three were all top 200 teams...but outside of Colgate, do we not think we can pick off a game against Lehigh or BU, who are ranked as the next two teams by Pomeroy? Lehigh is 1-8 against D1 opponents. Yeah, we stink...but so does just about everyone else. I think going around .500 in the league is a possibility. Lehigh and Lafayette have both played pretty tough D1 opponents so their awful combined record non-con could be deceptive. Here's what KenPom has to say about each team's OOC strength of schedule.
Team= KenPom's Calculation/Ranking among all D-1 teams
Colgate= +5.90/ #43 Lehigh= +4.58/ #57 Lafayette= +1.77/#117 Bucknell=+1.43/#126 Loyola= (0.64)=#195 Boston U= (2.62)/#253 Holy Cross= (3.84)/#285 American U= (4.960/ #311 Navy= (6.48)/ #337 Army= (7.18)/ #346
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Post by Ignutz on Jan 3, 2024 11:56:45 GMT -5
I'm in the camp that says 8-9 wins, and as a previous poster suggested, the Ws will be more prevalent toward the end of the season as the youngsters gain experience and confidence.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jan 3, 2024 19:29:08 GMT -5
I can't believe I did not get my own prediction in on time. I would have gone with 7 wins
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Post by bison137 on Jan 4, 2024 10:50:22 GMT -5
Here's what KenPom has to say about each team's OOC strength of schedule.
Team= KenPom's Calculation/Ranking among all D-1 teams
Colgate= +5.90/ #43 Lehigh= +4.58/ #57 Lafayette= +1.77/#117 Bucknell=+1.43/#126 Loyola= (0.64)=#195 Boston U= (2.62)/#253 Holy Cross= (3.84)/#285 American U= (4.960/ #311 Navy= (6.48)/ #337 Army= (7.18)/ #346
it should be noted that Pomeroy simply ignores the D3 games that some teams have played. Those games would have a significant effect on SOS if included. The place where it makes the biggest difference is Lehigh, who has played two very weak D3 teams. If they were included, Lehigh’s SOS would be worse than #150.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jan 4, 2024 11:26:37 GMT -5
I should have noted that. Thanks. As well, the D-2 and D-3 games are excluded from all the rest of KenPom’s calculations
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Mar 16, 2024 14:06:21 GMT -5
HC won 7 PL games, so our predictors came down as follows:
55% predicted too many wins 16% selected the "6 or 7" choice that was correct 29% proved to be pessimistic
Take a look at Tom's post-he predicted 7 wins with some prescient detail. I also had 7 wins but did not get my vote in on time so I am certainly suspect
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Post by timholycross on Mar 16, 2024 18:16:33 GMT -5
I don't think that's a given. Might be if the top three were all top 200 teams...but outside of Colgate, do we not think we can pick off a game against Lehigh or BU, who are ranked as the next two teams by Pomeroy? Lehigh is 1-8 against D1 opponents. Yeah, we stink...but so does just about everyone else. I think going around .500 in the league is a possibility. Yes it is a possibility. We might steal a game against #2 or #3. We might also gain a sweep against some lower teams. Right now we've got five freshmen playing meaningful minutes. In my opinion that is a recipe for inconsistency. Heck I said my analysis was a wild guess Right now, Mr Massey thinks Bucknell is a middle of the pack team. It will be interesting to see how the guys do on the road tonight against a 300-ish team, probably missing our most experienced fourth year senior. My prediction: At some point tonight, the Bucknell announcer will annoy me. As it turns out, HC stole a game vs 2, 3 AND 4. Split w/6, swept by 1,5,7 and 8 (but beat 8 in the tournament). Lone sweep was vs #10.
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Post by Tom on Mar 17, 2024 9:30:09 GMT -5
Yes it is a possibility. We might steal a game against #2 or #3. We might also gain a sweep against some lower teams. Right now we've got five freshmen playing meaningful minutes. In my opinion that is a recipe for inconsistency. Heck I said my analysis was a wild guess Right now, Mr Massey thinks Bucknell is a middle of the pack team. It will be interesting to see how the guys do on the road tonight against a 300-ish team, probably missing our most experienced fourth year senior. My prediction: At some point tonight, the Bucknell announcer will annoy me. As it turns out, HC stole a game vs 2, 3 AND 4. Split w/6, swept by 1,5,7 and 8 (but beat 8 in the tournament). Lone sweep was vs #10. So does this error mean that I am not going to get the respect and admiration of my fellow posters that KY had me lined up for I was 100 percent correct on my other prediction that the Bucknell would annoy me that night
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