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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jan 20, 2024 11:25:17 GMT -5
Worst player to foul: a bad three point shooter in the act of shooting who is a great foul shooter. Expected points: (1) if he shoots the three unmolested=25% X 3= 0.75 points. (2) If he gets fouled= 85% X 3= 2.55 points plus small chance of making the three anyway, say +0.5 points for a total of 3.05
Maybe a good idea to foul; a high percentage two point shooter near the basket in the act of shooting who is also a terrible foul shooter. Expected points (1) if he shoots the two unmolested= 75% X 2= 1.5 points. (2)If we hack the shooter to eliminate any possibility of a field goal= 35% X2= 0.7 points. Then we must also consider the effect on accelerating the team's road to the penalty situation.
Kind of Captain Obvious there but maybe it helps less intuitive observers like myself
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Jan 20, 2024 11:29:52 GMT -5
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Jan 20, 2024 11:38:24 GMT -5
Also, on a similar note, throwing this out to the board. This is something I’ve thought about in end of game situations recently.
Here’s the situation I’ll lay out — Team A is leading team B by two points with, let’s say, 20 seconds remaining in regulation. Team B has the ball and is in the single bonus.
Of course, team A is supposed to play defense, get a stop, and win the game.
However, would team A be better off committing a foul, should the ball get into the hands of a mediocre or worse free throw shooter (let’s say worse than 70% FT shooter for this exercise)?
Someone smarter than me could do the math, but I think this would make sense, no?
This prevents team B from hitting a three-pointer for either the lead / win.
In order for team B to be tie the game, they’ll need their worse than 70% shooter to hit both free throws.
And even if both free throws are made, team A will have the ball for the final possession for a chance to win. Best case they win. Worst case it’s OT.
I’m convinced this is the way to play these situations out at the end of a game.
What say you?
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Post by Non Alum Dave on Jan 20, 2024 11:44:31 GMT -5
If the good guys are Team A with the 2 point lead, and Dike is on the floor for Loyola, I say, sure, give it a go and see what happens.
The Perry kid concerns me today. He is really quick, and could pose some real problems for the D.
Why doesn't Loyola win more?
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Post by longsuffering on Jan 20, 2024 11:48:03 GMT -5
How many close games have been lost at the end by teams a little better than the opponent when both teams are at full strength, but not as good when they have one or more starters in foul trouble or fouled out?
Also when a basket is scored the defense now gets possession guaranteed as long as they can execute the inbounds pass, but a missed foul shot by a poor foul shooter gives the defense possession (securing the rebound and getting the ball safely over midcourt) a lower percentage of the time.
All kinds of variables like a good player playing more conservatively and thus less effectively with three or four fouls or riding the pine for ten minutes. In general fouling-bad, getting fouled-good.
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Post by cmo on Jan 20, 2024 12:47:54 GMT -5
Also, on a similar note, throwing this out to the board. This is something I’ve thought about in end of game situations recently. Here’s the situation I’ll lay out — Team A is leading team B by two points with, let’s say, 20 seconds remaining in regulation. Team B has the ball and is in the single bonus. Of course, team A is supposed to play defense, get a stop, and win the game. However, would team A be better off committing a foul, should the ball get into the hands of a mediocre or worse free throw shooter (let’s say worse than 70% FT shooter for this exercise)? Someone smarter than me could do the math, but I think this would make sense, no? This prevents team B from hitting a three-pointer for either the lead / win. In order for team B to be tie the game, they’ll need their worse than 70% shooter to hit both free throws. And even if both free throws are made, team A will have the ball for the final possession for a chance to win. Best case they win. Worst case it’s OT. I’m convinced this is the way to play these situations out at the end of a game. What say you? I like it. Also Depends on if it’s an 86-84 game or a 48-46 game.
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Post by hchoops on Jan 20, 2024 12:53:40 GMT -5
Most college coaches do not do this because when they have a lead at the end, they do not want to risk a loss even in OT. For many, a “bad” loss threatens employment.
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Post by hcnation on Jan 20, 2024 14:30:28 GMT -5
Bo taking the shots he’s good at
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Jan 20, 2024 14:38:25 GMT -5
Bo playing really good basketball.
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Jan 20, 2024 14:42:45 GMT -5
How does Joe get back on track?
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