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Post by Tom on Feb 16, 2017 9:29:43 GMT -5
After last night's loss at home, the play off picture is beginning to take focus. . .
If HC totally goes down the tubes and loses out, they can finish in no worse than 7th place, hosting a play in game
If HC wins out but no one offers a helping hand HC would finish in 6th and avoid the play in game. They control only that much destiny
If HC wins out and the universe aligns in perfect fashion, HC still has a best case scenario of 3rd place
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Post by sader81 on Feb 16, 2017 9:37:43 GMT -5
Laffy loss and last night hurt!
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Post by cmo on Feb 16, 2017 10:00:59 GMT -5
I think '92 mentioned this, but 6th seed will be ok if BU-Navy were the 2-3 or 3-2 with Bucknell-Lehigh as 1-4.
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Post by cmo on Feb 16, 2017 10:20:10 GMT -5
if BU beats Buck this weekend, where would the tie breaker put them?
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Post by somedaycamesuddenly on Feb 16, 2017 10:39:36 GMT -5
if BU beats Buck this weekend, where would the tie breaker put them? It's complicated but BU would own the likely tiebreaker due to our sweep of Lehigh. Bucknell still has to play Navy and if they win they could drop Navy to a tie for third and Lehigh would have the tiebreaker for third. If Navy ends the season in sole possession of third place (not a super likely outcome), then Bucknell would have the tiebreaker over us. In a way, both losing to Navy and beating Navy could both potentially hurt Bucknell. One thing to keep in mind for Holy Cross is the worst seed always plays the best seed. Sixth puts you even more likely to play the top seed. It is not a rigid bracket. |
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Post by Tom on Feb 16, 2017 10:54:11 GMT -5
if BU beats Buck this weekend, where would the tie breaker put them? It's complicated but BU would own the likely tiebreaker due to our sweep of Lehigh. Bucknell still has to play Navy and if they win they could drop Navy to a tie for third and Lehigh would have the tiebreaker for third. If Navy ends the season in sole possession of third place (not a super likely outcome), then Bucknell would have the tiebreaker over us. In a way, both losing to Navy and beating Navy could both potentially hurt Bucknell. One thing to keep in mind for Holy Cross is the worst seed always plays the best seed. Sixth puts you even more likely to play the top seed. It is not a rigid bracket. Agreed a BU/Bucknell tie would come down to who finishes third, and there are tons of scenarios left. If the tournament is not a rigid bracket, that is a change for this season. Last season was definitely rigid. As most of us remember lowest seed HC played #4 Army in the semis instead of highest remaining seed #2 Lehigh |
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Post by somedaycamesuddenly on Feb 16, 2017 11:16:37 GMT -5
It's complicated but BU would own the likely tiebreaker due to our sweep of Lehigh. Bucknell still has to play Navy and if they win they could drop Navy to a tie for third and Lehigh would have the tiebreaker for third. If Navy ends the season in sole possession of third place (not a super likely outcome), then Bucknell would have the tiebreaker over us. In a way, both losing to Navy and beating Navy could both potentially hurt Bucknell. One thing to keep in mind for Holy Cross is the worst seed always plays the best seed. Sixth puts you even more likely to play the top seed. It is not a rigid bracket. Agreed a BU/Bucknell tie would come down to who finishes third, and there are tons of scenarios left. If the tournament is not a rigid bracket, that is a change for this season. Last season was definitely rigid. As most of us remember lowest seed HC played #4 Army in the semis instead of highest remaining seed #2 Lehigh My mistake, you are correct. |
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Post by bison137 on Feb 16, 2017 15:45:49 GMT -5
if BU beats Buck this weekend, where would the tie breaker put them? It's complicated but BU would own the likely tiebreaker due to our sweep of Lehigh. Bucknell still has to play Navy and if they win they could drop Navy to a tie for third and Lehigh would have the tiebreaker for third. If Navy ends the season in sole possession of third place (not a super likely outcome), then Bucknell would have the tiebreaker over us. In a way, both losing to Navy and beating Navy could both potentially hurt Bucknell. One thing to keep in mind for Holy Cross is the worst seed always plays the best seed. Sixth puts you even more likely to play the top seed. It is not a rigid bracket. If Navy and Lehigh end up tied for 3rd, it doesn't matter who has the tiebreaker between the two since the tie for 1st is broke before they even look at 3rd place scenarios. To do orherwise leaves open the real possibility of a circular process with no real outcome. However Boston U would prevail if those two were tied unless Colgate miraculously ran the table and got into the tie as well. however if Navy loses to Bucknell but wins their other two games, they will be in 3rd by themselves if Lehigh fails to run the table, which would give Bucknell the tiebreaker. |
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Post by Tom on Feb 19, 2017 16:16:39 GMT -5
Not that much has changed after this weekend.
Two losses would still drop HC into the play-in unless Colgate also loses out.
Winning out would put HC into 5th at worst. Most games broke right for HC so 3rd and 4th are still in play
If HC wins out and Navy loses out, they would tie for 4th (even if Lehigh loses out making a 3-way for 3rd because they win the first tiebreaker). HC would hold the tiebreaker - and host a quarterfinal unless Loyola beats American AND Lafayette beat Colgate which would make things too confusing to think about right now.
HC can also take 4th by winning out if Colgate also wins out and Lehigh loses out
In a perfect world, if HC and Colgate both win out and Lehigh and Navy both lose out there would be a 4 way tie for 3rd. HC would win out because all these teams split except HC swept Colgate
That's today's version of Geek 101
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Post by rgs318 on Feb 19, 2017 16:22:03 GMT -5
LOL.  Of course, we could wait a week and see what the records are then...but that is probably too drastic a course of action.  |
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Post by HC92 on Feb 19, 2017 18:17:45 GMT -5
Right now, I think my preference would be to be on the 2/3/6/7 side of the bracket rather than the 1/4/5/8 side.
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Post by Non Alum Dave on Feb 19, 2017 18:36:30 GMT -5
Right now, the team that worries me the most is ......Holy Cross. I think any of the other teams should be feared (although respected, for sure). But - will our guys play their best ball?
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Post by rgs318 on Feb 19, 2017 18:51:37 GMT -5
Right now, the team that worries me the most is ......Holy Cross. I think any of the other teams should be feared (although respected, for sure). But - will our guys play their best ball? I think you are right. That is the real question. Perhaps they may even make bunnies and score on fast breaks...or is that setting the bar too high. |
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Post by unhfan on Feb 19, 2017 19:28:04 GMT -5
Do you gentlemen see similarities between this team and last year's team that caught lighting in a bottle?
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Post by DiMarz on Feb 19, 2017 21:43:03 GMT -5
Do you gentlemen see similarities between this team and last year's team that caught lighting in a bottle? Almost the same team..Same style on both ends of the floor...HC has to shoot the ball well to be a good winning team...Which is what happened last season.. |
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Post by hchoops on Feb 19, 2017 21:44:49 GMT -5
We do not have Eric Green or anyone of similar ability
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Post by cmo on Feb 22, 2017 21:25:48 GMT -5
Bucknell locked in at 1.
Army locked in at 8.
Looks like every other seed up in the air.
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Post by cmo on Feb 22, 2017 21:28:45 GMT -5
Could an HC loss to BU, with both Loy and Colgate winning, still push us into the play-in game?
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Post by HC92 on Feb 22, 2017 21:30:27 GMT -5
Could an HC loss to BU, with both Loy and Colgate winning, still push us into the play-in game? I think we were 2-0 against Colgate and 1-1 against Loyola so I think we are safe. |
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Post by Tom on Feb 22, 2017 22:42:32 GMT -5
Could an HC loss to BU, with both Loy and Colgate winning, still push us into the play-in game? No. That would be a 3 way tie for 5th. Against the tied teams HC is 3-1, Colgate 2-2, and Loyola 1-3. HC would finish in 5th in that scenario. I'll post all the other possibilities later |
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Post by cmo on Feb 22, 2017 22:47:41 GMT -5
How much later? Trying to decide if I should stay up.  |
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Post by Xmassader on Feb 22, 2017 23:32:45 GMT -5
I'll take a stab at it. If HC wins, HC will be 5th if Navy wins and 5th if Navy loses, Colgate loses and Loyola wins. If HC wins, HC will be 4th if Navy loses and (i) both Colgate and Loyola win, (ii) both Colgate and Loyola lose or (iii) Colgate wins and Loyola loses.
If HC loses, there is no chance for 4th. In that case, HC will be 5th if (i) both Colgate and Loyola lose, (ii) there is a 3-way tie among HC, Colgate and Loyola or (iii) a two-way tie between HC and Colgate and 6th if there is a two way tie between HC and Loyola.
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Post by Tom on Feb 23, 2017 8:10:37 GMT -5
OK, I didn't stay up. Here's how it looks to me
If HC loses
- HC finishes 6th of combined with a Loyola win and a Colgate loss since Loyola has the 2-way tiebreaker with HC based on their win over Bucknell
- HC finishes 5th with any other combination
If HC and Navy both win HC is in 5th
If HC wins and Navy loses leaving them tied for 4th
- If Colgate wins and Loyola loses, HC finishes 4th based on their sweep of Colgate
- If Loyola wins and Colgate loses, HC finishes 5th based on Navy's sweep of Loyola
- If Colgate and Loyola both win or both lose leaving them in a tie, I'm not really sure, but I'm thinking 4th based on the following rationale:
Colgate swept Loyola and would win the tiebreaker to finish 6th and send Loyola to the play-in game, but the tiebreaking rules state "ties will be broken in rank order beginning
with the highest seed", meaning even though we all know Colgate finishes ahead of Loyola from head to head, that piece of info can't be used to break a Navy/HC tie. Navy and HC would both be 3-1 against the tied for 6th position and they keep going down the ladder to American and Lafayette tied at 9th (which they will be if Loyola and Colgate both win or lose) and HC and Navy are both 3-1 against those teams. My interpretation of the rule says move on to the next tiebreaker which is RPI. As of this morning ESPN lists HC ahead of Navy and a HC win coupled with a Navy loss shouldn't change that so that leaves HC in 4th
Even if I'm misreading the rule somehow, I can't see a logical interpretation that has Navy win a tiebreaker with HC if Loyola and Colgate are also tied
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Post by rgs318 on Feb 23, 2017 8:20:17 GMT -5
Tom and others, Thanks for all of your efforts. Of course, the easiest way to see the macth-ups might be to wait until after this weekend's games...but what fun is that? |
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Post by sader1970 on Feb 23, 2017 8:37:21 GMT -5
I just want us to beat BU and the rest is beyond our control, so I will wait for the PL to tell us who we play and where. I get this vision of a Rubik's Cube reading these posts.  |
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