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Post by KY Crusader 75 on May 6, 2018 10:22:31 GMT -5
As I look forward to next season's schedule I think a good way to start is to look at how HC and 2018 opponents ranked in 2017. Of course, this does not take into account two critical factors:(#1) how will HC and opponents be affected by player personnel changes (seniors graduating and new freshmen coming on board) and (#2) how will Coach Chesney and his new staff affect player development, play calling, strategic decisions, avoidance of "boneheaded things to lose close games", etc? I think Coach Chesney will make a significant positive difference, perhaps more so as the years progress and his recruiting prowess (I'll bet that he is good at that) has greater effect.
Here's the lines that we could predict using Jeff Sagarin's ratings from last year, again, before allowing for factors #1 and #2 above
HC +15 @ Colgate HC +41 @ bc HC +14 vs Yale HC +3 vs Dartmouth HC (12) vs Bucknell HC +15 @ UNH HC +5 @ Harvard HC (4) vs Lehigh HC (9) @ Lafayette HC (10) vs Fordham HC (14) @ Georgetown
So, this would have us favored in 5 games--not saying we'd win all 5, but also not saying we'd lose every game where we're the underdog...
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Post by rgs318 on May 6, 2018 10:47:15 GMT -5
Here is Massey's PRESEASON take on the coming season (with all of the same disclaimers listed above): W/L Opponent Predicted score (HC/Opp) - chance for an HC win L....Colgate (17/27) - 22% L....Boston College (3/42) - 0% L....Yale (14/27) - 18% L....Dartmouth (21-25) - 39% W...Bucknell (24/4) - 80% L....New Hampshire (10/30) - 8% L....Harvard (21/24) - 42% W...Lehigh (37/35) - 54% W...Lafayette (21/14) - 74% W...Fordham (29/24) - 64% W...Georgetown (24/7) - 88%
He has HC matching up pretty well vs the Ivies...but, at this point, losing all four games.
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Post by rgs318 on May 6, 2018 10:53:21 GMT -5
He also has some pre-season FCS ranks listed: #23 New Hampshire #26 Yale #37 Colgate #48 Dartmouth #63 Harvard #64 Lehigh #66 HOLY CROSS #82 Fordham #96 Bucknell #98 Lafayette #114 Georgetown
and #31 Boston College - in the FBS
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on May 6, 2018 10:55:06 GMT -5
I think 5-6 would represent a solid first year. Injuries could drop it to 3-8, a relative lack of injuries might raise it to 6-5. HC is Yale's first game, so that helps. As of right now, in the first seven games, I think HC will be favored in only the Bucknell game.
My biggest concern is the offense. Just don't know how prepared the incoming coaching staff is with play-calling against the speed and quickness of defenses brought by the better teams in Division I..
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Post by sader1970 on May 6, 2018 13:09:02 GMT -5
I am most concerned about the offense. We've lost Pujals and the experienced OLine of last season (which was a huge disappointment) and the offense did not look particularly good in the spring game. That said, I expect that we will see much more running than we've seen in the last 8-10 years and that may or may not be a good thing. If we win only 4 games, that's probably at least what we would have expected if Tom Gilmore was still coach. My expectations are higher and expect a minimum of 5 wins and hopefully 6 or even 7. All the Chesney optimism and positive attitude needs to translate into more wins. I'll be rooting hard for the team, if not the shield.
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Post by purplehaze on May 6, 2018 14:48:03 GMT -5
Didn't I hear the coach say that we have Maryland on a future schedule ? Anyone know when ?
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Post by sader1970 on May 6, 2018 14:55:31 GMT -5
Yes and no.
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on May 6, 2018 17:42:30 GMT -5
Didn't I hear the coach say that we have Maryland on a future schedule ? Anyone know when ? The Big Ten allows its schools to schedule a FCS school in those years when 12 regular season games are allowed. That is the fall of 2021. Maryland has yet to show any OOC games (of which there are three) on its schedule for 2021. Hearsay scuttlebutt told to someone at the Luth dedication was that,there is a game with a Big Ten opponent with a much bigger stadium than Maryland. Said opponent has one open date in 2021 for a potential FCS opponent. ADNP's mentor is out at Maryland, but another mentor is still in place at a Big Ten school. I assume if this game were to take place, it would be a HHUUUUGGGGGGEEEEEEEEEEE payday.
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Post by Crucis#1 on May 6, 2018 17:54:28 GMT -5
If the game is against Anne Saunders Barbour’s team, it would be a huge payday against a team we have not played since the early 1960’s.
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Post by hchoops on May 6, 2018 17:58:30 GMT -5
Didn't I hear the coach say that we have Maryland on a future schedule ? Anyone know when ? The Big Ten allows its schools to schedule a FCS school in those years when 12 regular season games are allowed. That is the fall of 2021. Maryland has yet to show any OOC games (of which there are three) on its schedule for 2021. Hearsay scuttlebutt told to someone at the Luth dedication was that,there is a game with a Big Ten opponent with a much bigger stadium than Maryland. Said opponent has one open date in 2021 for a potential FCS opponent. ADNP's mentor is out at Maryland, but another mentor is still in place at a Big Ten school. I assume if this game were to take place, it would be a HHUUUUGGGGGGEEEEEEEEEEE payday. Do not know why you tease, but the possibilities include. Michigan, Penn State, OSU
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Post by Crucis#1 on May 6, 2018 18:08:06 GMT -5
Was the last time we played this team 11/16/1963?
If so, another game in the Keystone state.
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on May 6, 2018 18:32:46 GMT -5
I should add one other qualification with regard to Big Ten scheduling rules. An FCS school can only be scheduled if the school has only four home games against conference opponents in the 12 game regular season.
Maryland in 2021 has only four conference home games. Michigan and PSU as well. Ohio State 2021 schedule only shows two games, home games against Oregon and Tulsa.
Not trying to tease, but I was not party to the hearsay, so I don't know whether the person heard correctly, or was told correctly. ___________________________
Also, the Big Ten made this rule change last year, which modified the recent rule of no scheduling of FCS (because of strength of schedule).
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Post by hcpride on May 6, 2018 18:48:21 GMT -5
Maryland has played in-state and FCS Towson twice in the last ten years so it would not be a surprise to see them play each other again. This year it was 63-17. (I'm assuming when we play BC it'll be about the same score.)
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on May 6, 2018 23:22:07 GMT -5
Finally got a chance to watch the interview and was very impressed. Coach is a very persuasive champion for the program.
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Post by joutsHC77 on May 7, 2018 16:09:56 GMT -5
Finally got a chance to watch the interview and was very impressed. Coach is a very persuasive champion for the program. I too watched it and believe we will be on an upward trend with Chesney but it may take some time. Great that he aspires to emulate the Duffner years and hope it materializes.
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