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Post by hc6774 on Nov 4, 2018 9:05:29 GMT -5
I picked the plurality, 17-19, because I can't see the 20 wins in CBC's comments to date & like most, if not all, of us, I have not seen the team in the flesh this season.
We should turn around at least half of the 10 losses last season when we didn't score 60 pts, which gets to 17, In the PL, to get to 20, we would need to dominate [i.e.8 wins] the bottom half and play the upper half close to even [3 wins].
I could change my mind on Election Day.
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Post by rgs318 on Nov 4, 2018 9:07:42 GMT -5
Nice explanation, Jim. Hopefully when we see this team "in the flesh" a higher number of wins may seem closer to reality.
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Post by hc87 on Nov 4, 2018 17:33:51 GMT -5
Let it be known that I nailed this last year. Pure dumb luck on my pahht. This year: OOC: 5-8 PL 11-7 PLT 2-1 Some ferkukta tourney: 1-1 19-17
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Nov 5, 2018 0:32:13 GMT -5
I am going with
6-7 Out of conference 11-7 PL regular season 2-1 PL Tournament
19-15 record
I think we have a ceiling much higher than that and here are some thoughts about how to get there
Better 3 Point Shooting
HC depends on the three point shot (I hate the three) more than most teams--that's part of our offensive strategy. In the last three seasons we have been #55, #24, #110 in D-1 re: 3 pointers as a % of total FGA. Unfortunately, we have not been a superior 3 point shooting team, connecting at 32.6% (#261), 34.5% (#191), 32.6% (#291). Hitting the benchmark 35% of our threes last year would have given us another 15 threes made and would not doubt have won us another 2 or 3 or 4 games. Among our three most frequent 3 point shooters, AB shot .32.8%, JG shot 31.7%, and CG shot 30.9%. We've seen many, many examples of sophomores making huge improvements in their three point shooting (MA went from .207 to .422; RC from .271 to .382; KC from .284 to .375) and we don't need such a dramatic improvement from these three sophs to have a dramatic effect on the team. Matt Faw was a stellar 21-44= .477 last season and I can't imagine he could improve on that percentage, but perhaps he'll get more shots and still hit at 40% or higher. Kyle Copeland looks to be a good shooter and shot .368 last year but that was from only 19 attempts. Can he hit at .350 or higher if he plays more and takes 50 attempts? I'm setting a target of .350 for the team. and if we hit that we'll win 20 games or more.
Correcting the Personal Foul imbalance
In 2016-17 we committed 516 personal fouls and drew 554 from our opponents-pretty solid. Last season we committed 537 to their 469. That represents a "swing" of (106) personal fouls. Instead of taking 63 more free throws than our opponents in 2016-17 we took 96 fewer in 2017-18. A swing of 159 free throw attempts is deadly, costing us 3 or 4 points a game.
Capitalizing on greater depth
I'm confident about this one and I believe Coach Carmody is as well. I think we can put fresher players on the floor without suffering a huge dropoff in talent. Take a look at the minutes the starters played in the last half-dozen games. Maybe they're iron men, but if they would benefit from more rest--playing 30 minutes a game instead of 35+--we'll have the backups to step in and play solid offense and defense.
Wild Cards
Of course we hope every player gets better, and if last year's starters do that we'll be in great shape. However, we also might see a wild card emerge like Kyle Copeland (encouraging words from coach, seems athletic and a good shooter, might even make us recall Eric Green on defense in a 1-3-1), Connor Niego (leading the "Most Improved Player" prediction in another thread), Matt Faw (keep shooting like last year and cut down on the fouls), or a freshman....
Improved overall execution
Every one of the key players has had at least a year with Coach Carmody's system.
Can't wait for that first game
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Post by rgs318 on Nov 5, 2018 6:27:50 GMT -5
Thanks for that detailed evaluation, KY. When I read the pessimists, I am always tempted to change (and lower) my prediction of wins. Your analysis and comments made me feel quite comfortable at 20-22.
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Nov 5, 2018 11:22:54 GMT -5
I went with 19-14.
6-7 OOC 12-6 Conference 1-1 PL Tournament
Though I can readily see this team getting 20-22 wins; 22 if there is a post-season first round game.
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Post by Crosser on Nov 5, 2018 13:42:32 GMT -5
I’m in optimistic mode again.
OoC - 7-6 PL - 14-4 PLT - 3-0 The Dance - 1-1
Season’s end 25-11
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Post by sader1970 on Nov 5, 2018 14:30:34 GMT -5
Irrational exuberance.😊
I like it!
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Post by Crosser on Nov 6, 2018 1:40:46 GMT -5
Guilty as charged!🙂
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Post by bringbackcaro on Nov 6, 2018 10:12:38 GMT -5
Assuming we can get out of the 1st round in the PL Tournament, there are a minimum of 24 games on the schedule against teams that KenPom has ranked 200+ in the preseason.
There are also 2 home games against teams ranked between 150-200.
And then there are 3 road games against #139 UMASS, #152 Iona, and #83 Harvard (who we have beaten FOUR times in a row).
20-22 wins should be the bare minimum given Carmody's first 3 sub-par seasons and the huge void that will be left behind by the departure of Floyd next year.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Nov 6, 2018 11:09:06 GMT -5
There you go again
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Post by bringbackcaro on Nov 6, 2018 12:03:38 GMT -5
Yes, there I go again thinking that we should now be capable of beating bad teams in Carmody's 4th season.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Nov 6, 2018 12:43:46 GMT -5
This thread was offered to elicit predictions about how many games HC would win, not how many H.C. should win. Did you weigh in on how many HC will win? You should do so—gives you a chance to prove your expertise. You could even say : “ Based on the opponents H.C. is facing the team should win 23 games, but with this coach I’ll predict 15”. That lets you vent your spleen on Coach Carmody’s shortcomings and sets you up for an I Told You So.
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Post by HC16 on Nov 6, 2018 12:58:58 GMT -5
I agree with KY's take. On average I'd place us around 18-19 wins with upside for 21-22 or so depending on how the Sophomores improve.
6-7 OOC 11-7 PL 2-1 Tournament
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Post by bringbackcaro on Nov 6, 2018 13:29:53 GMT -5
This thread was offered to elicit predictions about how many games HC would win, not how many H.C. should win. Did you weigh in on how many HC will win? You should do so—gives you a chance to prove your expertise. You could even say : “ Based on the opponents H.C. is facing the team should win 23 games, but with this coach I’ll predict 15”. That lets you vent your spleen on Coach Carmody’s shortcomings and sets you up for an I Told You So. OK, OK... Based on my calculations, the team should win 24 games. -win 90% vs 11 home games vs teams 200+ = 10 wins-win 75% vs 9 road games vs teams 200+ = 7 wins-win 100% of neutral games vs #221 and #250 or #296 at Mohegan = 2 wins-win 50% of home games vs Canisius (169) & Lehigh (186) = 1 win
-win 33% of road games vs UMASS (139), Iona (152), Harvard (83) = 1 win-win 100% of PL quarters & semi's at home vs teams 200+ = 2 wins-win PL Championship = 1 winTotal = 24 winsBut I think the team will win 36 games because we have the best coach in the whole wide world and will go undefeated in the regular season with our first loss coming against Duke in the Sweet 16, but only because they cheat! Chu Chu Rah Rah, Go Cross Go!
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Post by Tom on Nov 6, 2018 13:36:22 GMT -5
This thread was offered to elicit predictions about how many games HC would win, not how many H.C. should win. Did you weigh in on how many HC will win? You should do so—gives you a chance to prove your expertise. You could even say : “ Based on the opponents H.C. is facing the team should win 23 games, but with this coach I’ll predict 15”. That lets you vent your spleen on Coach Carmody’s shortcomings and sets you up for an I Told You So. OK, OK... Based on my calculations, the team should win 24 games. -win 90% vs 13 home games vs teams 200+ = 12 wins-win 75% vs 9 road games vs teams 200+ = 7 wins-win 100% of neutral games vs #221 and #250 or #296 at Mohegan = 2 wins-win 100% of PL quarters & semi's at home vs teams 200+ = 2 wins-win PL Championship = 1 winTotal = 24 winsBut I think the team will win 36 games because we have the best coach in the whole wide world and will go undefeated in the regular season with our first loss coming against Duke in the Sweet 16, but only because they cheat! Chu Chu Rah Rah, Go Cross Go! Other than the joke at the end, a well explained analysis. Are you assuming 0 wins for teams ranked better than 200 (other than the PL championship which I would hope would be better than 200) ?
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Post by bringbackcaro on Nov 6, 2018 13:55:10 GMT -5
OK, OK... Based on my calculations, the team should win 24 games. -win 90% vs 11 home games vs teams 200+ = 10 wins-win 75% vs 9 road games vs teams 200+ = 7 wins-win 100% of neutral games vs #221 and #250 or #296 at Mohegan = 2 wins-win 50% of home games vs Canisius (169) & Lehigh (186) = 1 win -win 33% of road games vs UMASS (139), Iona (152), Harvard (83) = 1 win-win 100% of PL quarters & semi's at home vs teams 200+ = 2 wins-win PL Championship = 1 winTotal = 24 winsBut I think the team will win 36 games because we have the best coach in the whole wide world and will go undefeated in the regular season with our first loss coming against Duke in the Sweet 16, but only because they cheat! Chu Chu Rah Rah, Go Cross Go! Other than the joke at the end, a well explained analysis. Are you assuming 0 wins for teams ranked better than 200 (other than the PL championship which I would hope would be better than 200) ? Thanks for pointing out - I was distracted when transferring the games over to my post and crossed up a couple lines. Updated above and in original. 1 win in the 3 road games vs UMASS/Iona/Harvard may be a bit optimistic, but only 1 win vs Canisius/Lehigh at home is the reverse.
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Post by hchoops on Nov 6, 2018 13:55:48 GMT -5
If the top part is serious, Basing the prediction (not exactly, still the “should win” ) solely on the number 200 (and somewhat on home court) is a bit arbitrary and puzzling. Bucknell and Colgate are rated slightly ahead of us, but above 200. Are they both projected Ws at home? on the road ? Same thing with the PL semi if Bucknell or Gate are there, they are still ranked ahead of us.
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Post by Ray on Nov 6, 2018 14:06:11 GMT -5
6-6 OOC 12-6 PL 3-0 PLTourney 0-1 NCAA --------------- 21-13
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Post by Tom on Nov 6, 2018 14:23:14 GMT -5
I made the comment a year ago, that my expectations for last year were low with no seniors. (That was not including the the "star" of the team playing below my expectations and then disappearing ) however, I would be disappointed if the more mature 2018/19 team did not realistically compete for a championship. My opinion has not changed. In my book "realistically competing" means at least a split with the perceived big dog Lehigh.
Back in 2014, HC won 20, finished 3rd in the regular season, and went to the PL semi's. They were also a combined 0-5 against the top 2. I didn't feel like they were really in the hunt. From a strictly PL standpoint, I expect better than that this year
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Post by bringbackcaro on Nov 6, 2018 14:26:56 GMT -5
If the top part is serious, Basing the prediction (not exactly, still the “should win” ) solely on the number 200 (and somewhat on home court) is a bit arbitrary and puzzling. Bucknell and Colgate are rated slightly ahead of us, but above 200. Are they both projected Ws at home? on the road ? Same thing with the PL semi if Bucknell or Gate are there, they are still ranked ahead of us. If we are actually ranked below 200 in Carmody's 4th season that is a massive failure. Yes, 200 is an arbitrary number but it is the 43rd percentile of D1 teams. When the HC program has been successful, we have dominated against these teams.
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Post by crossbball13 on Nov 6, 2018 16:00:03 GMT -5
3 9 OOC 12 6 Leage 2 1 PLT 17 16 Total
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Post by CHC8485 on Nov 6, 2018 16:06:55 GMT -5
7-6 OOC 12-6 PL 3-0 PL Tournament 0-1 NCAA Tournament
22 - 13
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Nov 6, 2018 19:02:18 GMT -5
4-9 OOC 11-7 PL 1-1 PLT
16-17 overall
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Post by sader81 on Dec 20, 2018 21:17:48 GMT -5
Interesting to look at the prognastications! No one predicted more than 7 OOC wins. As of now, anything less than 20 wins will be a disappointment!
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