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Post by Sons of Vaval on Jan 2, 2019 18:08:06 GMT -5
Bring, Back, the general rule of thumb when looking at regular season records is not to include records in the PLT. From 2002-09, the league was really run by HC, AU, and Bucknell. Beyond four games against those two opponents, I'd argue the league was pretty bad from 4-8; ten fairly easy games each year. So, yeah, the top with Bucknell was outstanding, but it was definitely easier to stockpile wins against Army, Navy, Lafayette, and Colgate during these years...Lehigh to a lesser degree, too.
If you are going to give RW the benefit of the doubt after Raynor, then the same courtesy should be done for Carmody after what he inherited from Milan Brown.
Oh, and for the record, I would argue Raynor actually left Willard with a pretty strong group of players. Sankes, Curry, Whearty, Serravalle, and Pegues were pretty good.
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Post by WorcesterGray on Jan 2, 2019 18:14:18 GMT -5
I picked 12-6 to start the season and will stick with that. League is strong at the top and given the uncertain status of Niego I fear depth will become a big issue. American got to the PLTC game a few years ago playing, at times down the stretch, without any bench. It can be done.
If Niego isn't back soon, there is cause for concern in the front court where Faw is still somewhat foul prone. On the other hand, one less-noted team improvement is in personal fouls, lower by more than two per game from last season - committing a shade over 15 a contest has Holy Cross ranked 18th in that category
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Post by bringbackcaro on Jan 2, 2019 18:31:11 GMT -5
If you are going to give RW the benefit of the doubt after Raynor, then the same courtesy should be done for Carmody after what he inherited from Milan Brown. Milan was a better recruiter than Carmody, and brought on 0 players who were kicked off the team (as opposed to 3 plus a walk-on for Carmody). Carmody has done nothing to upgrade the talent that Milan was recruiting, and an argument could easily be made that a roster starting with Floyd, Benzan, Koesteka, Proctor, and continuing with no turnover due to disciplinary issues would have the program in much better shape than it’s in now. — The whole “PL didn’t have scholarships when RW was coaching” argument is so tired and lazy. Whats the point? That hypothetically RW would not have been as successful against the current teams and coaches in the league? That 13-1 in the PL, a 14 seed and 4-point loss to a Final Four Marquette team in the NCAA Tournament in his 4th year wouldn’t translate to better than 13-5 in the current PL? Bull $@! RW also faced much better coaching competition in a league with Flannerg and Jeff Jones, who would both be the best coach in the PL today.
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Post by longsuffering on Jan 2, 2019 18:44:04 GMT -5
Because of the scientific principle of "stuff happens," 13-5 would be a praiseworthy accomplishment imo. This year's team is more disciplined and efficient than some prior teams, so an even better league record is possible. But our strengths may be able to be able to be defensed enough in the conference to generate some close losses that may have been close wins in the OOC.
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Jan 2, 2019 18:53:02 GMT -5
Let it be known that we could finish in first place in the PL, but that wouldn't be good enough for Bring Back because our record may not be strong enough in his eyes.
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Post by rgs318 on Jan 2, 2019 19:06:01 GMT -5
Let it be known that we could finish in first place in the PL, but that wouldn't be good enough for Bring Back because our record may not be strong enough in his eyes. He would certainly find a way to make it appear less than it was. He will also (as he does continually) mention the players who were put out of the program. That is sad and more than a bit tedious. BCC, do you think that any HC fans are unaware of what you need to say over and over? Perhaps you think we selectively forget (as you seem to do at times with the PL Tournament Title and NCAA win that BC brought to HC in his first season here (remembering only to mention the overall losing record).
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Post by Ray on Jan 2, 2019 19:09:30 GMT -5
— The whole “PL didn’t have scholarships when RW was coaching” argument is so tired and lazy. And, you know, factual. Especially as it relates to how the league is top-to-bottom better than it was 10-15 years ago, when the bottom half of the PL routinely featured some of the weakest teams in the country. Again, check the KenPom rankings of conferences. This year shakes out pretty well.
Or, just admit you're not actually interested in a fair-minded debate here.
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Post by rgs318 on Jan 2, 2019 19:10:50 GMT -5
Wasn't that back when Navy and other PL teams scheduled several non-D1 teams every year?
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Post by bringbackcaro on Jan 2, 2019 19:17:41 GMT -5
— The whole “PL didn’t have scholarships when RW was coaching” argument is so tired and lazy. And, you know, factual. Especially as it relates to how the league is top-to-bottom better than it was 10-15 years ago, when the bottom half of the PL routinely featured some of the weakest teams in the country. Again, check the KenPom rankings of conferences. This year shakes out pretty well.
Or, just admit you're not actually interested in a fair-minded debate here.
The bottom of the PL stunk when RW was at HC, just like it stinks now. The difference is really in the middle of the league, but it has not risen to a level where these middle of the pack teams would actually be challenging the HC and Bucknell teams that were dominating the PL during the Willard-Flannery run. Also, should Carmdoy’s success at Princeton also be qualified with the fact that Harvard had much stricter academic and financial aid requirements for their MBB team at that time, and that he was using Peter Carril’s system and players? Just want to be fair!
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jan 2, 2019 19:49:46 GMT -5
And, you know, factual. Especially as it relates to how the league is top-to-bottom better than it was 10-15 years ago, when the bottom half of the PL routinely featured some of the weakest teams in the country. Again, check the KenPom rankings of conferences. This year shakes out pretty well.
Or, just admit you're not actually interested in a fair-minded debate here.
The bottom of the PL stunk when RW was at HC, just like it stinks now. The difference is really in the middle of the league, but it has not risen to a level where these middle of the pack teams would actually be challenging the HC and Bucknell teams that were dominating the PL during the Willard-Flannery run. Also, should Carmdoy’s success at Princeton also be qualified with the fact that Harvard had much stricter academic and financial aid requirements for their MBB team at that time, and that he was using Peter Carril’s system and players? Just want to be fair! You don't want to be fair and we all know that. You have some beef against both Nate Pine and Bill Carmody and it colors every message you post to this board. "Milan was a better recruiter than Carmody" --Too early to make that determination but I think Carmody will come to be seen as having brought better talent to the team. It's too early to tell at this point. We get the "kicked off the team" argument--really a sad development for Holy Cross. Let's put it behind us. It will not be in the first paragraph when the story is written about the Carmody era at HC.
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Post by rgs318 on Jan 2, 2019 21:34:45 GMT -5
Also, should Carmdoy’s success at Princeton also be qualified with the fact that Harvard had much stricter academic and financial aid requirements for their MBB team at that time, and that he was using Peter Carril’s system and players? Just want to be fair! That is not the case. What makes you think that Princeton had lower standards than Harvard when it came to athletes? As a NJ coach and a counselor I did not see that. Did Coach Carril "own" the Princeton players? I believe they were members of the Princeton team and as their coach BC worked with them. How is bringing any of that up "fair" in any way?
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Post by Tom on Jan 2, 2019 22:19:39 GMT -5
The bottom of the PL stunk when RW was at HC, just like it stinks now. The difference is really in the middle of the league, but it has not risen to a level where these middle of the pack teams would actually be challenging the HC and Bucknell teams that were dominating the PL during the Willard-Flannery run. Also, should Carmdoy’s success at Princeton also be qualified with the fact that Harvard had much stricter academic and financial aid requirements for their MBB team at that time, and that he was using Peter Carril’s system and players? Just want to be fair! You don't want to be fair and we all know that. You have some beef against both Nate Pine and Bill Carmody and it colors every message you post to this board. "Milan was a better recruiter than Carmody" --Too early to make that determination but I think Carmody will come to be seen as having brought better talent to the team. It's too early to tell at this point. We get the "kicked off the team" argument--really a sad development for Holy Cross. Let's put it behind us. It will not be in the first paragraph when the story is written about the Carmody era at HC. It depends who's writing the story:) Obviously the jury is out on Carmody as a recruiter. Time will tell. I don't intend it as a slight of our sophs, but I don't see anyone as at a level of a Floyd or a Miller. You still have to do something with those players Last year Bucknell set a league record with 16 wins(ya I know they probably would have had more if there were 10 teams in 2006). That 16 win team had a player of year and two others who were 1st team all league. I disagree with the logic that says a team with a potential POY and another who looks like he could make 1st or 2nd team should cakewalk to that 16 number. We're fans and we like to be optimistic, but it's harsh to consider it a disappointment if they can't live up to really optimistic predictions. As long as I'm railing on flawed logic, I disagree with the logic that HC's outstanding conference performance a decade ago means it's automatic this year's squad will have equal success. It's kind of like the stock market - past success does not guarantee future returns.
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Post by Crosser on Jan 2, 2019 22:31:50 GMT -5
If our bench was in better shape, I’d be more optimistic; but I’m going to stick with my original 14-4 prediction. We’ll have to work real hard and avoid any more injuries to get there.
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Post by hchoops on Jan 2, 2019 22:36:20 GMT -5
You don't want to be fair and we all know that. You have some beef against both Nate Pine and Bill Carmody and it colors every message you post to this board. "Milan was a better recruiter than Carmody" --Too early to make that determination but I think Carmody will come to be seen as having brought better talent to the team. It's too early to tell at this point. We get the "kicked off the team" argument--really a sad development for Holy Cross. Let's put it behind us. It will not be in the first paragraph when the story is written about the Carmody era at HC. It depends who's writing the story:) Obviously the jury is out on Carmody as a recruiter. Time will tell. I don't intend it as a slight of our sophs, but I don't see anyone as at a level of a Floyd or a Miller. Many fine points, but keep,in mind that neither Jehyve nor Malcolm really developed until their junior years. Arguably, Grandy, Caleb and Butler are as of now ahead of where those two fine players were at similar stages of their careers.
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Post by bison137 on Jan 2, 2019 23:10:49 GMT -5
Also, should Carmdoy’s success at Princeton also be qualified with the fact that Harvard had much stricter academic and financial aid requirements for their MBB team at that time, and that he was using Peter Carril’s system and players? Just want to be fair! That is not the case. What makes you think that Princeton had lower standards than Harvard when it came to athletes? I don't think he said that. He made the accurate point that it was a lot easier to beat Harvard when Carmody was at Princeton than it is now. It has been often documented that Harvard's standards for basketball players were significantly reduced when Amaker took over as coach.
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Post by longsuffering on Jan 3, 2019 0:30:54 GMT -5
That sounds right even though I don't recall it being mentioned in the many puff pieces in the Boston media celebrating Harvard and Amaker's remarkable turn around story.
Like everything else Harvard must have top PR people. But nobody can top what Greg Burke did for Gordie Lockbaum. I never got tired of all that publicity and Gordie never stopped deserving it.
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Post by hcpride on Jan 3, 2019 7:20:21 GMT -5
HC
--Best player in the PL in Floyd, who has the talent and skill set to be averaging a double-double in the PL, and completely dominating play in the paint. --Potential 1st team all-PL player in Grandison, who should feast on PL defenses if we can get them to have to focus on defending Floyd in the paint --Potential 3rd team all-PL player in Green, who can score, distribute, and lead a team --Some solid role player pieces in Benzan (well-suited for utility role off the bench), Faw (good shooter), Niego (good shooter), and Butler (good offensive player when not playing against good defenses or athletic wings) --Inability to develop depth due to players thrown off the team, players who didn't develop, and a freshmen class that hasn't seen a meaningful minute in the OOC could cause serious issues if there are any injuries to starters ----- I'm thinking 13-5.
I especially agree with this section of your analysis. Floyd reminds me of Warney (6'8" Stony Brook graduate now on the fringes of the NBA) in that he has a physical skill set in the paint that his league really cannot stop... and it is question of feeding him down low until the other PL team stops him...and that opens things up for the rest of the team (Grandy and Butler) v PL opponents. And he is a shut-down low post player on D in our league...and it is a question of keeping him out of foul trouble. (Note: I am not saying he has all of Warney's offensive moves...it is the physical mismatch v his league opponents that jumps out at me).
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Post by sader81 on Jan 3, 2019 7:36:23 GMT -5
I ask the same two questions that I asked to SOV & KY: Between 2006-2008, HC won 23 consecutive home games. What is so ridiculous about thinking that this team can win 9 in a row with the PL POY, another 1st (or 2nd) team all-PL player, and potential 3rd team all-PL player?
IIRC, not all of the league had a full compliment of scholarship players at the time. HC brought back scholarships in the early 2000s, but the rest of the league did not follow suit right away, and it took each team four years to get a full scholarship team.
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Post by rgs318 on Jan 3, 2019 8:14:42 GMT -5
That is not the case. What makes you think that Princeton had lower standards than Harvard when it came to athletes? I don't think he said that. He made the accurate point that it was a lot easier to beat Harvard when Carmody was at Princeton than it is now. It has been often documented that Harvard's standards for basketball players were significantly reduced when Amaker took over as coach. I think he did. "Harvard had much stricter academic and financial aid requirements for their MBB team at that time," It says nothing about which team was tougher to beat.
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Post by bringbackcaro on Jan 3, 2019 10:15:39 GMT -5
With all of the praise that Carmody and this roster receive, I am a bit shocked that 80% of respondents think this team will lose at least 23% of their games against PL teams in a KenPom range in which they are currently 9-0 this year.
I guess the last 10 years have really damaged people's expectations for this program. Very sad!
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Post by sader1970 on Jan 3, 2019 10:20:38 GMT -5
I already stated my case in the thread in which we predicted OOC, in-conference, playoffs and overall record. To participate here would be redundant.
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Post by bringbackcaro on Jan 3, 2019 10:47:14 GMT -5
In the last 10 years, there have been 3 PL teams that have had the PL POY, DPOY, and two 1st team all-league selections (which is what HC has this year):
16-17 Bucknell: 15-3 (.833) 12-13 Bucknell: 12-2 (.857) 10-11 Bucknell: 13-1 (.929)
The PL regular season champion has won over 80% of their PL games in 7 of the last 10 years. The only times it didn't happen:
15-16 Bucknell: 14-4 (.778) -- No POY, No DPOY, 1 1st team, 1 2nd team, 1 3rd team 14-15 Bucknell: 13-5 (.722) -- No POY, No DPOY, 1 1st team, 0 2nd team, 0 3rd team 09-10 Lehigh: 10-4 (.714) -- Yes POY, No DPOY, 1 1st team, 2 2nd team
So the last time that a team finished with a winning percentage below .800 with what HC has in Floyd & Grandison this year was 2009-2010 -- nine seasons ago.
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Jan 3, 2019 10:50:09 GMT -5
In the last 10 years, there have been 3 PL teams that have had the PL POY, DPOY, and two 1st team all-league selections (which is what HC has this year): 16-17 Bucknell: 15-3 (.833) 12-13 Bucknell: 12-2 (.857) 10-11 Bucknell: 13-1 (.929) The PL regular season champion has won over 80% of their PL games in 7 of the last 10 years. The only times it didn't happen: 15-16 Bucknell: 14-4 (.778) -- No POY, No DPOY, 1 1st team, 1 2nd team, 1 3rd team 14-15 Bucknell: 13-5 (.722) -- No POY, No DPOY, 1 1st team, 0 2nd team, 0 3rd team 09-10 Lehigh: 10-4 (.714) -- Yes POY, No DPOY, 1 1st team, 2 2nd team So the last time that a team finished with a winning percentage below .800 with what HC has in Floyd & Grandison this year was 2009-2010 -- nine seasons ago. Okay, cool.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jan 3, 2019 11:09:43 GMT -5
Ken Pomeroy projects Holy Cross to go 11-7 in PL play.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jan 3, 2019 11:13:58 GMT -5
In the last 10 years, there have been 3 PL teams that have had the PL POY, DPOY, and two 1st team all-league selections (which is what HC has this year):
16-17 Bucknell: 15-3 (.833) 12-13 Bucknell: 12-2 (.857) 10-11 Bucknell: 13-1 (.929) The PL regular season champion has won over 80% of their PL games in 7 of the last 10 years. The only times it didn't happen: 15-16 Bucknell: 14-4 (.778) -- No POY, No DPOY, 1 1st team, 1 2nd team, 1 3rd team 14-15 Bucknell: 13-5 (.722) -- No POY, No DPOY, 1 1st team, 0 2nd team, 0 3rd team 09-10 Lehigh: 10-4 (.714) -- Yes POY, No DPOY, 1 1st team, 2 2nd team So the last time that a team finished with a winning percentage below .800 with what HC has in Floyd & Grandison this year was 2009-2010 -- nine seasons ago. Great analysis, but terribly flawed, in that you base it on the assumption in BOLD above which may not come to pass. Of course, we know the reason you have brought this argument forward: if HC does not have the PL POY, DPOY, and two 1st team all-league selections it is because Bill Carmody did not use the talent properly, did not prepare for opponents, had the wrong offensive and defensive schemes, etc, etc. If HC does not win 80% of its games it is because of the coach's incompetence, right?
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