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Post by bringbackcaro on Jan 4, 2019 12:09:58 GMT -5
In the 6 games this year in which Floyd has at least 8 FG attempts, HC is 6-0 and averaging 73 PPG. In the 8 games this year in which Floyd has less than 8 FG attempts, HC is 4-4 and averaging 65 PPG. The story is the same over the past year and a half, and particularly evident over the last 25 games (since the start of the 2nd half of PL play last year). There is a very clear jump in the team's performance when JF gets to at least 7-8 FG attempts compared to when he has fewer. There is no excuse for not feeding him the ball early and often throughout PL play. Last 25 games (HC record: 16-9 .640):
Min FGA | Games (>=) | W% (>=) | PPG (>=) | | Games (<) | W% (<) | PPG (<) | | Diff: W% | Diff: PPG | 3 | 23 | .696 | 67.9 |
| 2 | .000 | 62.5 |
| +.696 | +5.4 | 4 | 23 | .696 | 67.9 | | 2 | .000 | 62.5 | | +.696 | +5.4 | 5 | 22 | .682 | 66.7 | | 3 | .333 | 72.7 | | +.348 | -5.9 | 6 | 17 | .647 | 66.6 | | 8 | .625 | 69.1 | | +.022 | -2.5 | 7 | 13 | .769 | 72.0 | | 12 | .500 | 62.5 | | +.269 | +9.5 | 8 | 12 | .833 | 72.4 | | 13 | .462 | 62.8 | | +.372 | +9.6 | 9 | 8 | .875 | 70.4 | | 17 | .529 | 66.1 | | +.346 | +4.3 | 10 | 6 | .833 | 67.0 | | 19 | .579 | 67.6 | | +.254 | -.06 | 11 | 4 | .750 | 66.3 | | 21 | .619 | 67.7 |
| +.131 | -1.4 |
Since start of 2017-18 season (HC record: 22-23 .489):Min FGA | Games (>=) | W% (>=) | PPG (>=) | | Games (<) | W% (<) | PPG (<) | | Diff: W% | Diff: PPG | 3 | 43 | .512 | 65.2 | | 2 | .000 | 62.5 | | +.512 | +2.7 | 4 | 42 | .500 | 65.1 | | 3 | .333 | 64.7 |
| +.167 | +.05 | 5 | 41 | .488 | 64.5 | | 4 | .500 | 71.8 | | -.012 | -7.3 | 6 | 36 | .444 | 64.1 | | 9 | .667 | 69.1 | | -.222 | -5.0 | 7 | 27 | .519 | 67.8 | | 18 | .444 | 61.1 | | +.074 | +6.8 | 8 | 22 | .591 | 67.9 | | 23 | .391 | 62.5 | | +.200 | +5.4 | 9 | 13 | .692 | 69.2 | | 32 | .406 | 63.4 | | +.286 | +5.8 | 10 | 10 | .600 | 66.9 | | 35 | .457 | 64.6 | | +.143 | +2.3 | 11 | 6 | .667 | 66.5 | | 39 | .462 | 64.9 | | +.205 | +1.6 |
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Post by hcpride on Jan 4, 2019 12:28:41 GMT -5
Not only is JF a matchup nightmare for our PL opposition, he takes very good shots. The answer is to make sure he shoots more. Last night, for example, he was 8 for 9 from the field...I'd like to see him take 15 shots a game.
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Jan 4, 2019 12:31:55 GMT -5
There's no reason for Butler to have attempted more 2PT FG than Floyd this season. I'd like to see Butler pick his spots better, and for there to be a more concerted effort to get Floyd the ball.
Did anyone notice Green and Floyd playing a bit of a two man game last night? Worked well.
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Post by lou on Jan 4, 2019 12:39:54 GMT -5
I'm ok with the tradeoff. He still scored 20, pulled down 15, and had four fouls called against him, and we won by 7. (We need him to stay in the game)
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Post by hchoops on Jan 4, 2019 12:41:27 GMT -5
There's no reason for Butler to have attempted more 2PT FG than Floyd this season. I'd like to see Butler pick his spots better, and for there to be a more concerted effort to get Floyd the ball. Did anyone notice Green and Floyd playing a bit of a two man game last night? Worked well. That 2 man game has been a wrinkle of the offense used more frequently this season. Agree about J.F getting more 2s than Austin, but JF’s 5 fewer minutes per game than Austin, as well as Caleb and Grandy, mostly due to JF’s foul trouble, is part of the reason.
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Post by efg72 on Jan 4, 2019 12:43:32 GMT -5
There's no reason for Butler to have attempted more 2PT FG than Floyd this season. I'd like to see Butler pick his spots better, and for there to be a more concerted effort to get Floyd the ball. Did anyone notice Green and Floyd playing a bit of a two man game last night? Worked well. In listening to the bench conversation during the game last night the coaching staff agrees with you-- if they had the bench strength to sit one or two of those that make less than great decisions they would-- problem is they both play real hard on both ends
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Post by bringbackcaro on Jan 4, 2019 12:47:55 GMT -5
There's no reason for Butler to have attempted more 2PT FG than Floyd this season. I'd like to see Butler pick his spots better, and for there to be a more concerted effort to get Floyd the ball. Did anyone notice Green and Floyd playing a bit of a two man game last night? Worked well. Butler should be forbidden from catching the ball on the 3-point line and trying to drive to the hoop. It usually results in a turnover or flailing low percentage shot attempt. A two man game with Green (or Grandison) and Floyd would be extremely difficult for PL teams to guard.
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Post by rgs318 on Jan 4, 2019 12:54:05 GMT -5
One of my favorite plays last night saw Green and JF in the lane. Green got the ball (back to the basket) and handed it directly to Floyd (about 2 feet in front of him) who then went up and put it in.
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Post by crosspride on Jan 4, 2019 13:01:20 GMT -5
Fantastic analysis and use of data to make the point that the offense is significantly better when JF is a major focal point. Some have said that the offense will be better next year once after Floyd graduates. This pretty clearly shows that not only is the offense better with Floyd, the team wins more. I was always puzzled by the take that the offense would be better without Floyd because of spacing. Sure, he doesnt have to be guarded out to the 3pt line, but far more importantly, he brings an interior scoring component to the offense that no one else can come close to replicate. In short, he makes opponents guard the entire floor, not just the 3 point line.
Credit Milan for getting him here and Carmody for the development, but mostly and especially JF for his significant improvement.
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Post by efg72 on Jan 4, 2019 13:07:13 GMT -5
There's no reason for Butler to have attempted more 2PT FG than Floyd this season. I'd like to see Butler pick his spots better, and for there to be a more concerted effort to get Floyd the ball. Did anyone notice Green and Floyd playing a bit of a two man game last night? Worked well. Butler should be forbidden from catching the ball on the 3-point line and trying to drive to the hoop. It usually results in a turnover or flailing low percentage shot attempt. A two man game with Green (or Grandison) and Floyd would be extremely difficult for PL teams to guard. Ironically you and the coaching staff are aligned on this topic -- based on the bench conversations last night
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Post by sader1970 on Jan 4, 2019 13:11:42 GMT -5
BBC, I'm not even going to try to decipher your chart but our 4-4 obviously includes all 4 of our losses which were arguably against the best competition - Michigan, Providence, URI, Harvard (the last maybe not). Now, I don't pretend to be the basketball expert that so many here are, or at least act like they are, but isn't there just a small possibility that the fact Jehyve shot less then 8 FG attempts in those games was in large part due to playing against superior athletes and better defenses rather than a Carmody or Jehyve strategy?
My point is even more simple than yours: JF will shoot as often as he gets the chance to do so with success. You don't really think that Carmody was trying to hold Floyd back in those games do you?
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Post by bringbackcaro on Jan 4, 2019 13:26:01 GMT -5
BBC, I'm not even going to try to decipher your chart but our 4-4 obviously includes all 4 of our losses which were arguably against the best competition - Michigan, Providence, URI, Harvard (the last maybe not). Now, I don't pretend to be the basketball expert that so many here are, or at least act like they are, but isn't there just a small possibility that the fact Jehyve shot less then 8 FG attempts in those games was in large part due to playing against superior athletes and better defenses rather than a Carmody or Jehyve strategy? My point is even more simple than yours: JF will shoot as often as he gets the chance to do so with success. You don't really think that Carmody was trying to hold Floyd back in those games do you? Sure, those four losses were against strong competition. That is what the expanded sample sizes in the charts are for. Just follow the 3rd column down in each chart (W% (>=) -- there is a very clear spike when Floyd gets to 7-8 FG attempts. Do I think Carmody is trying to "hold Floyd back" -- of course not. Do I think it's a good strategy for Carmody to have Floyd spend so much time at or above the free throw line (where he is not in scoring range), while way too may shots go to Butler and Faw without even looking in Floyd's direction -- no, I do not.
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Post by sader1970 on Jan 4, 2019 13:37:17 GMT -5
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Post by hchoops on Jan 4, 2019 13:54:34 GMT -5
Set screens and more importantly give usually accurate passes for assists (50) to cutters free because of the open middle.with no low post.
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Post by Ray on Jan 4, 2019 14:12:14 GMT -5
This is so tiresome. Your bias, BBC, drives you to frame this question as the coaching staff being apparently too stupid to get their best player more shot attempts. But there's more to the story.
The difference in competition (and quality of defender on JF) in the losses to higher-level opponents has already been noted. In addition, raw shot totals are a terrible metric because they don't reflect minutes played. JF, of course, sat nearly the entire URI game, and was also significantly limited by foul trouble at Providence.
Let's look at some per-game stats in Wins vs Losses, this season only:
JF in 10 Wins: 32.7 Min/game 7.6 Shots/game 0.23 Shots/minute
JF in 4 losses: 22.3 Min/game 3.3 shots/game 0.15 Shots/min
Sure, especially in league play where he's a matchup nightmare for any opponent, he should be shooting more. That's pretty clear.
What's also clear is that we need JF on the floor. And off course that's a prerequisite for more shots. But that doesn't support any of your narratives about the coaches, so you're not making that point here.
Bottom line: we're going to go as far as our player of the year candidate takes us.
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Post by hchoops on Jan 4, 2019 14:15:41 GMT -5
Maybe we have 2 player of the year candidates.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jan 4, 2019 14:26:40 GMT -5
I agree 100% on getting JF the ball as often as we can-- can't be stopped down low, great passer up high, doesn't turn over the ball very often. I like the analytical work on how many shots he takes--I might have done it looking only at Patriot League games to take out the games like Michigan where we would not have won if he took 3,5,7,9,12, or 15 shots. As well, if we are looking for guidance for the rest of the season--that's all PL play until we get to the NCAA Tournament. Just one man's view.
I think a lot of people are down on Austin Butler. I remain a huge fan--not just of the all-in way he plays but of the results he gets. Yes, he may get too aggressive at times and, like every other Crusader, make some mistakes (e.g. not coming to the ball on the pass near the end of the game yesterday), but let's recognize his talents, too. As far as his two point shooting, be it drives from the three point line, breakaways, or short jumpers, he is shooting .451 this season and that's including the two horrendous games (2-23 against Michigan and Providence). Since those two games he is shooting .550 on twos.
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Post by hc80 on Jan 4, 2019 14:29:12 GMT -5
And BBC -- you ought to think about the whole context....
Versus URI - JF was hurt and did not play meaningful minutes Versus PC - fouled out and was hit with foul trouble from early in the first half. Versus Michigan -- ya think maybe they were defensing him a bit differently with better talent? Versus Harvard - okay....
And on the advice of counsel, I will limit my remarks to the above. But really, have any clue at all?
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Post by bringbackcaro on Jan 4, 2019 14:44:27 GMT -5
This is so tiresome. Your bias, BBC, drives you to frame this question as the coaching staff being apparently too stupid to get their best player more shot attempts. But there's more to the story. The difference in competition (and quality of defender on JF) in the losses to higher-level opponents has already been noted. In addition, raw shot totals are a terrible metric because they don't reflect minutes played. JF, of course, sat nearly the entire URI game, and was also significantly limited by foul trouble at Providence. Let's look at some per-game stats in Wins vs Losses, this season only: JF in 10 Wins:32.7 Min/game 7.6 Shots/game 0.23 Shots/minute JF in 4 losses:22.3 Min/game 3.3 shots/game 0.15 Shots/min Sure, especially in league play where he's a matchup nightmare for any opponent, he should be shooting more. That's pretty clear. What's also clear is that we need JF on the floor. And off course that's a prerequisite for more shots. But that doesn't support any of your narratives about the coaches, so you're not making that point here. Bottom line: we're going to go as far as our player of the year candidate takes us. So cutting through all of your jackass side comments, you think it's just important that Floyd's on the floor, and it doesn't matter if players like Butler and Faw are getting more shots than him. Got it. For example, in the Harvard game when Floyd played 30 mins (just above his season average of 28.6) and had 2 FG attempts, while Faw played 22 minutes and had 9 FGAs (2-9) and Butler played 26 minutes and had 10 FGAs (3-10) -- for a combined 5-19, 26% -- there was nothing wrong with the strategic approach. Thanks for the response! (By the way, my post simply called out statistics from the last 47 games. If that is tiresome for you, there is no need for you to read it. I suggest the block button like the others who can't seem to deal with the crazy idea that someone else disagrees with them.)
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Post by Ray on Jan 4, 2019 14:56:32 GMT -5
So cutting through all of your jackass side comments, you think it's just important that Floyd's on the floor, and it doesn't matter if players like Butler and Faw are getting more shots than him. Got it. For example, in the Harvard game when Floyd played 30 mins (just above his season average of 28.6) and had 2 FG attempts, while Faw played 22 minutes and had 9 FGAs (2-9) and Butler played 26 minutes and had 10 FGAs (3-10) -- for a combined 5-19, 26% -- there was nothing wrong with the strategic approach. No, not what I said. You of course go right to the specific example of Floyd getting minutes and not getting shots.... but that Harvard game is basically an outlier.
As I said, sure, he should shoot more. But in aggregate, rather than cherry-picking examples like Harvard, the bigger predictor of team success is his minute total, not his shot total. We're 10-2 when he plays >22 minutes.
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Post by bringbackcaro on Jan 4, 2019 15:01:52 GMT -5
I agree 100% on getting JF the ball as often as we can-- can't be stopped down low, great passer up high, doesn't turn over the ball very often. I like the analytical work on how many shots he takes--I might have done it looking only at Patriot League games to take out the games like Michigan where we would not have won if he took 3,5,7,9,12, or 15 shots. As well, if we are looking for guidance for the rest of the season--that's all PL play until we get to the NCAA Tournament. Just one man's view. Chart below shows only PL games since the start of league play last year. The Floyd jump is slightly higher than when OOC games are included, now in the 8-9 FGA range. When Floyd attempted at least 9 FGs, we won 24% more games and scored an additional 12.2 PPG. (JF averaged 32.1 MPG in those 10 games at 9+ FGAs and 29.8 MPG in the 11 games below 9 FGAs -- very minimal difference.)Last 21 PL games (HC record: 10-11 .476):
Min FGA | Games (>=) | W% (>=) | PPG (>=) | | Games (<) | W% (<) | PPG (<) | | Diff: W% | Diff: PPG | 6 | 20 | .450 | 64.2 | | 1 | 1.000 | 70.0 | | -.550 | -5.8 | 7 | 14 | .500 | 68.2 | | 7 | .429 | 56.9 | | +.071 | +11.4 | 8 | 13 | .538 | 68.3 | | 8 | .375 | 58.1 | | +.163 | +10.2 | 9 | 10 | .600 | 70.8 | | 11 | .364 | 58.6 | | +.236 | +12.2 | 10 | 7 | .429 | 68.1 | | 14 | .500 | 62.6 | | -.071 | +5.6 | 11 | 4 | .500 | 68.5 | | 17 | .471 | 63.5 | | +.029 | 5.0 | 12 | 3 | .667 | 66.7 | | 18 | .444 | 64.1 | | +.222 | +2.6 |
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Post by efg72 on Jan 4, 2019 15:26:17 GMT -5
I agree 100% on getting JF the ball as often as we can-- can't be stopped down low, great passer up high, doesn't turn over the ball very often. I like the analytical work on how many shots he takes--I might have done it looking only at Patriot League games to take out the games like Michigan where we would not have won if he took 3,5,7,9,12, or 15 shots. As well, if we are looking for guidance for the rest of the season--that's all PL play until we get to the NCAA Tournament. Just one man's view. I think a lot of people are down on Austin Butler. I remain a huge fan--not just of the all-in way he plays but of the results he gets. Yes, he may get too aggressive at times and, like every other Crusader, make some mistakes (e.g. not coming to the ball on the pass near the end of the game yesterday), but let's recognize his talents, too. As far as his two point shooting, be it drives from the three point line, breakaways, or short jumpers, he is shooting .451 this season and that's including the two horrendous games (2-23 against Michigan and Providence). Since those two games he is shooting .550 on twos. I am not questioning his talent and I agree with you about his potential and energy. As he matures as a player and slows the game down a bit offensively he will be more dangerous. We all know the team is young and much has been asked of his class for the past season plus. In his case, he has been asked to do a lot in game conditions from day one without the benefit of any experienced seniors on the floor. IMHO this has worked against him although I believe Green is slowly becoming a coach on the floor. However until the coaches feel they can go deeper on the bench, he won't benefit from the real time teaching during the game that he needs. While yelling from the sideline that he made a mistake is understood and part of the game, spending time with him while he is on the bench and teaching what should be done might help him develop faster. He clearly has a desire to post up and use his strength, but in doing so he takes away part of the lane for JF. Perhaps if JF would turn, face and go more often it will help solve two problems at once- getting JF more shots and slowing Austin down .
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Post by hcpride on Jan 4, 2019 15:29:34 GMT -5
Although it is Carmody's offense and although JF can be a surprisingly nifty passer and set nice high picks/screens , I really don't need to see him at or near the three point line with the ball. If I am the opposition the favorite place for me to see JF with the ball is at or near the three point line. He is not a PL mismatch from there. He is not shooting and he is not breaking anyone down off the dribble from out there. The nightmare for me is JF in and around the paint - shooting 15 times a game. I wrote before that JF reminds me very much of SBU's 6'8" (250) Jameel Warney ( stonybrookathletics.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=314 ). He (JW) would drift out to the three point line and catch the ball and SBU's coaching staff would give him the evil eye. (Note: He was the AE Player of the Year three consecutive years and he was a physical mismatch down low for every team in the conference...he too was a surprisingly nifty passer but that was not the mismatch)
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Post by sader81 on Jan 4, 2019 16:23:20 GMT -5
The team is 10-4; I think the coaches know what to do and are getting it done.
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Post by Non Alum Dave on Jan 4, 2019 17:18:47 GMT -5
I've said it before, and will keep saying it until he graduates: the numbers don't do Austin justice as far as I'm concerned. Yes, he makes mistakes, and efg, I think you make a great point about him not having the opportunity to learn from the bench. However, I think he is instrumental in helping give the team a collective sense of confidence that is impossible to measure. I don't care if he doesn't rate highly with Ken Pomeroy, Jeff Goodman, Howard Garfinkel, Howard Stern, Red Auerbach or Red Skelton - I want him invading enemy gyms with that swagger. We all hated John Griffin; I'm sure he didn't give a hoot, and I'm sure Bucknell fans were glad to have him. That's how I feel about Austin. And if we are fortunate enough to win a title while he's here, I hope I can weasel my way into a picture with him and the championship trophy!
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