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Post by longsuffering on Nov 20, 2019 22:18:43 GMT -5
3 out of 4? HC wins and Laf loses--good HC wins and Laf wins--good HC loses and Laf loses--good HC loses and Laf wins- not good I had it: HC wins and Lafayette loses -good HC wins and Lafayette wins - good HC loses and Lafayette wins - bad I think my pea brain equated HC and Laf both winning or both losing as the same thing. The correct answer is 3 out of 4, which gives us a 75% chance of moving on not 66.7% chance. It's nice to have something to play for in late November. |
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Post by longsuffering on Nov 20, 2019 22:20:44 GMT -5
Believe NCAA pays for all travel. Cost should not be an issue. NCAA site states NCAA pays travel for the championship game. No indication NCAA covers travel for playoff games leading to the championship. (The exception would be hoops, given the revenue stream to the NCAA for the Dance.) If this is the case does the NCAA control the gate receipts like the PL does in the PLT so they can be used to defray the visiting team's expenses? |
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Post by longsuffering on Nov 20, 2019 22:26:24 GMT -5
If CCSU makes a deep run in the tourney, or even wins it, what will all of the highly paid Football and Athletic Administration folks in Storrs have to say?
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Nov 20, 2019 23:16:31 GMT -5
3 out of 4? HC wins and Laf loses--good HC wins and Laf wins--good HC loses and Laf loses--good HC loses and Laf wins- not good I had it: HC wins and Lafayette loses -good HC wins and Lafayette wins - good HC loses and Lafayette wins - bad I think my pea brain equated HC and Laf both winning or both losing as the same thing. The correct answer is 3 out of 4, which gives us a 75% chance of moving on not 66.7% chance. It's nice to have something to play for in late November. I think we have much better than a 75% chance of moving on as the 4 outcomes are not of equal probability. Sagarin has HC 79% to beat Georgetown and Lehigh 62% to beat Lafayette. If those are accurate probabilities we'd look at the following: HC wins and Laf loses--good 79% X 62%= 49% HC wins and Laf wins--good 79% X 38%= 30% HC loses and Laf loses--good 21% X 62%= 13% So these three add up to 92% chance . I think that's maybe a bit high, still, HC is likely better than 75% to advance HC loses and Laf wins- not good 21% X 38%= 8% |
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Post by sader1970 on Nov 21, 2019 7:30:12 GMT -5
I defer to folks like HC16 but I think the 75% or 67% numbers are off because these wins/losses are not random events.
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Nov 21, 2019 7:38:38 GMT -5
If CCSU makes a deep run in the tourney, or even wins it, what will all of the highly paid Football and Athletic Administration folks in Storrs have to say? Along with ADNP, the other supposed finalist to succeed DR was the AD at CCSU. However, he would not have been the one to shake the money tree. |
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Post by HC16 on Nov 21, 2019 10:46:25 GMT -5
I defer to folks like HC16 but I think the 75% or 67% numbers are off because these wins/losses are not random events. KY's post above covers the math (according to Sagarin's odds) correctly. |
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Nov 23, 2019 17:50:41 GMT -5
With respect to NCAA reimbursement for travel, the NCAA rules provide for reimbursement for travel to the championship. There is no reference that indicates that the NCAA reimburses for travel to playoffs, or regional rounds leading to the championship. Eastern Washington played in the FCS championship last year. The ,link below summarizes their expenses and revenue. Note their three playoff games were at home. Note also appearing in the championship game generated zero revenue from the NCAA, only reimbursement of travel. theeasterner.org/45126/sports/ewu-board-of-trustees-focus-on-football-playoff-budget-during-meeting/ |
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