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Post by Sons of Vaval on Apr 3, 2020 10:23:40 GMT -5
The models are only as good as the data in it.
It's time for the country to get back to work.
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Post by clmetsfan on Apr 3, 2020 10:44:04 GMT -5
The models are only as good as the data in it. It's time for the country to get back to work. Seriously? We're not even close to the worst of this yet. Fauci himself has just said that all states should have stay-at-home orders in place and he can't understand why so many haven't done that yet. But yeah, in this thread titled "Honoring Dr. Fauci" let's just throw that recommendation out the window because what does he know?
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Post by td128 on Apr 5, 2020 9:25:36 GMT -5
Some Random Thoughts upon Reviewing the Data from this site: www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/We are told that we should expect a dip in the virus during the summer months because of higher temps. Ok, but then what about this? Total Death Count Brazil #13 at 445 deaths; Average temperature between Jan-March of 80 degrees Ecuador #20 at 172 deaths; Average temperature between Jan-March of 70-72 degrees Given the fact that those two South American nations are in the Top 20 as far as Total Deaths, what about these nations that are in very close proximity and with similar weather and average temps? Peru #31 with 73 deaths Argentina #44 with 43 deaths Colombia #47 with 32 deaths Bolivia #72 with 10 deaths Venezuela #81 with 7 deaths Moving a little bit northward, let's take a closer look at some of the Central American nations again with average temps this time of year of mid to high 70s into low 80s. Dominican Republic #30 with 77 deaths Panama #40 with 46 deaths (a business colleague informs me that there is extensive travel between mainland China and Panama) Mexico with average temps in the low 60s in the early months of the year has had 79 deaths ranking it at #27 A little closer to the origination of this virus, let's look at the nations in and around Asia and southeast Asia As a benchmark, China is reporting 3329 deaths (nobody believes this but that is the report) Average temps in Wuhan in Dec-January-February are approximately mid-40s) South Korea: 859 miles from Wuhan and average temps of hi 20s has reported 183 deaths #19 Japan: 1430 miles from Wuhan and average temps in low 20s has reported 77 deaths #29 Ok . . . . so does anybody else find this interesting? Taiwan: 627 miles from Wuhan with average temps in low 60s has reported 5 deaths #61 Vietnam: 1204 miles from Wuhan and average temps in high 50s has reported 0 deaths . . . Laos: 1044 miles from Wuhan and average temps in low 70s has reported 0 deaths . . Thailand: 1319 miles from Wuhan (Vietnam and Laos are between Wuhan and Thailand) and with average tems in low 70s has reported 23 deaths ranked #55 Cambodia: 1379 miles from Wuhan and with temps in low 80s has reported 0 deaths Myanmar: 1282 miles from Wuhan and with average temps in low 60s has reported 1 death ranking it #138 Hong Kong: a mere 571 miles from Wuhan and average temps in mid 60s has reported 4 deaths ranking it #97 Ok, let's move even further south into SE Asia where we see the following: Indonesia: 2167 miles from Wuhan with average temps in low 80s has reported 198 deaths ranking it at #18 Philippines: 1313 miles from Wuhan and average temps in high 70s has reported 152 deaths ranking it #22 Malaysia: 1991 miles from Wuhan and with average temps in high 70s has reported 61 deaths ranking it at #37 All of which makes this data from Singapore jump out: Singapore: 2133 miles from Wuhan and average temps in low 80s has reported 6 deaths ranking it at #84 Lots of stuff within this data that strikes me as making little sense given the disparity in reported deaths from countries in close proximity to one another. I think the idea that this virus is correlated with temperature is also not reliable. I think one can make a case that there is meaningful correlation with death count and economic standing in the world with many/most but certainly not all of the Top 20 nations by Death Count to be considered first world nations. The disparity in reported deaths between Taiwan and its closest neighbors jumps off the page at me as well. Might Taiwan and Hong Kong as well be using the same Reporting Service as the PRC? Who knows but perhaps. The Singapore data relative to its closest neighbors also strikes me as wildly inconsistent and far beyond anything easily explainable. 6 total deaths in Singapore while the Philippines has 152 and Indonesia has 198? Really?? When some things do not make sense in what should be a situation with a meaningful degree of randomness involved, I begin to ask serious questions as to what am I missing and why. The factor that strikes me as most correlated is the economic. Perhaps that might explain the quick 'run for the money' (as in $2.5 TRILLION) being made by the UN and World Health Organization: unctad.org/en/pages/newsdetails.aspx?OriginalVersionID=2315Speaking of money, also very interesting that the World Bank (then led by former Dartmouth College pres Jin Kim) issued $500mm in new types of Catastrophe Bonds in July 2017 to mature in July 2020 that pay handsome rates of interest (Libor +6.5% to Libor +11%) if and only if there is no global pandemic relating to 6 types of viruses . . . including coronavirus. If a pandemic relating to one of these virus is declared, then the bonds are worthless: www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2017/06/28/world-bank-launches-first-ever-pandemic-bonds-to-support-500-million-pandemic-emergency-financing-facilityFollow the money . . .
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Post by longsuffering on Apr 5, 2020 10:52:35 GMT -5
td. You provided a very interesting post. There may very well be other factors involved such as: population density and types of housing, quality of medical facilities/care, response(see Germany),age of the infected and so on. I assume this was part of your unspoken message. It seems that unsurprisingly our poorer brothers and sisters will suffer disproportionately. At this point it appears that we just don't know enough about this virus. Thanks from warm Barbados. Please distance, separate and stay healthy and safe. How do you factor in skilled political leadership in the various nations? Unity of the populace and trust in government? Which country has the largest number of infections? Must be some poverty stricken country rife with corruption and a backward healthcare system.
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Post by Chu Chu on Apr 5, 2020 11:12:54 GMT -5
td said, "We are told that we should expect a dip in the virus during the summer months because of higher temps.".
Said by who? The President?
The correlation comes from our experience with influenza, which does decrease in northern climes with better weather. Correlation is NOT causation, however.
The real cause oft his effect is almost certainly the fact that schools and colleges break for the summer, and this decreases the proximately spread of our most effective disease carrying vectors.
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Post by td128 on Apr 10, 2020 8:47:34 GMT -5
In the midst of the daily Coronavirus Task Force pressers including Dr. Birx and Dr Fauci, I might only hope that they include doctors and esteemed professionals well schooled and trained in the field of mental health with special focus on childhood health and well-being. What are the costs associated with the diminution if not total elimination of the social services that provide the badly needed support system for these members of our society? I would guesstimate that these costs are astronomical and increasing each and everyday while we hear regularly from our fellow alumnus that we need to keep all of our current practices in place. I don't buy it. I am not denying the very real costs and impact of this virus BUT WHY OH WHY are the real needs of other members of our society forced to pay this price when many areas of this nation are minimally impacted by the virus. www.google.com/search?q=The+Coronavirus+Could+Cause+a+Child+Abuse+Epidemic&oq=The+Coronavirus+Could+Cause+a+Child+Abuse+Epidemic+&aqs=chrome..69i57j33.22943j0j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8"first do no harm . . . "
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Post by lou on Apr 11, 2020 12:59:45 GMT -5
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Apr 11, 2020 14:22:22 GMT -5
Even mentions Holy Cross!
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Post by newfieguy74 on Apr 11, 2020 14:59:16 GMT -5
This is a great article. Is it possible Dr. Fauci is on his way to becoming the most well-known HC alum ever? His name comes up constantly in conversation and I make sure I tell everyone he went to HC. Of course, my brother went to Cornell and he was quick to claim him also. I know you can't quantify the benefit to HC, but his prominence, and the extent to which respect for him is widespread, will be of long-lasting effect in helping to attract the kind of students we all want on the Hill.
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Post by hchoops on Apr 11, 2020 15:21:34 GMT -5
He is on the back cover of the recent HC Magazine.
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Post by hchoops on Apr 11, 2020 15:25:10 GMT -5
This is a great article. Is it possible Dr. Fauci is on his way to becoming the most well-known HC alum ever? His name comes up constantly in conversation and I make sure I tell everyone he went to HC. Of course, my brother went to Cornell and he was quick to claim him also. I know you can't quantify the benefit to HC, but his prominence, and the extent to which respect for him is widespread, will be of long-lasting effect in helping to attract the kind of students we all want on the Hill. He probably will become our best known alum among non sports fans, at least. And as future sports fans know less about the Cooz, Fauch may become number 1.
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Post by HC92 on Apr 11, 2020 19:28:36 GMT -5
One of my classmates posted on our class Facebook page about President Bush’s remarks upon awarding Dr. Fauci the Presidential Medal of Freedom:
President George W. Bush presented the Presidential Medal of Freedom to Dr. Anthony Fauci in 2008. These are Mr. Bush's remarks: “The man who would lead the fight against this dreaded disease (AIDS) came from an Italian American family in Brooklyn. Even as a boy, Tony was distinguished by his courage. In a neighborhood full of Brooklyn Dodgers fans -- (laughter) -- he rooted for the Yankees. (Laughter.) Tony earned a full scholarship to Regis High School, a Jesuit school in Manhattan. And he still quotes what he learned from Jesuit teaching: "Precision of thought, economy of expression." And now you know why he never ran for public office. (Laughter.)
Those who know Tony do admit one flaw: sometimes he forgets to stop working. He regularly puts in 80-hour weeks. And from time to time, he's even found notes on his windshield left by coworkers that say things like, "Go home. You're making me feel guilty." (Laughter.) A friend once commented that Tony was so obsessed with work that his wife must be a pretty patient woman. The truth of the matter is, she's very busy herself. Christine Grady is a renowned bioethicist. And together they raised three talented daughters: Jennifer, Meghan, and Allison. And I hope each of you know that for all Tony has accomplished, he considers you to be one of his -- not one of his -- his most important achievement. Your love and support have strengthened him as he works to save lives across the world.
For his determined and aggressive efforts to help others live longer and healthier lives, I'm proud to award the Presidential Medal of Freedom to Dr. Anthony S. Fauci.” —President George W. Bush
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Post by hchoops on Apr 11, 2020 20:36:28 GMT -5
Just wonderful, everything except rooting for the Yan...
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Post by td128 on Apr 12, 2020 5:56:09 GMT -5
Prior to the coronation, I welcome sharing the following under the Jesuit mantel of 'pursuing the truth': 1. Global Health Leaders Launch Decade of Vaccines Collaboration | Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (December 2010): www.gatesfoundation.org/Media-Center/Press-Releases/2010/12/Global-Health-Leaders-Launch-Decade-of-Vaccines-CollaborationOur fellow alumnus is on the GF Leadership Council for this initiative. 2. Robert Kennedy writes just this past week: Gates’ Globalist Vaccine Agenda: A Win-Win for Pharma and Mandatory Vaccination: childrenshealthdefense.org/news/government-corruption/gates-globalist-vaccine-agenda-a-win-win-for-pharma-and-mandatory-vaccination/3. Kennedy is no fan of Gates or his efforts to vaccinate the world : "Gates himself said at TED (Technology, Entertainment, and Design) talk, “Now if we do a great job on new vaccines,” the world population could be reduced. A month earlier he had pledged $10 billion to the World Health Organization (WHO) for that purpose.
In 2014, the WHO was accused of sterilizing millions of women in Kenya, through deception, and the evidence was found in the vaccines used. The WHO admitted that it had been working on that project for more than 10 years. Similar charges have been brought against the WHO in countries such as Tanzania, Nicaragua, Mexico, and the Philippines.
Gates is also accused of controlling international organizations such as the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), the Vaccine Alliance (GAVI), and the international health organization PATH, in addition to using their money to advance their projects and silencing those who reject mass vaccinations." . . . thebl.com/us-news/robert-f-kennedy-jr-answers-bill-gates-on-the-dangers-of-a-mandatory-ccp-virus-vaccine.html4. Brief 3-minute video message from 2018 message from Robert Kennedy: I would love to hear from Dr. Fauci on these practices and the fallout from them. "first do no harm"
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Post by hchoops on Apr 12, 2020 7:34:55 GMT -5
Happy Easter
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Post by rgs318 on Apr 12, 2020 7:45:23 GMT -5
Happy Easter to you and to Crossporters everywhere!
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Apr 12, 2020 9:13:53 GMT -5
Happy Easter to all. I watched online a broadcast of Mass from the Vailankanni Shrine in the Tamil Nadu state of India just after midnight last night--late morning in India.
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Post by hchoops on Apr 12, 2020 9:22:03 GMT -5
Happy Easter to all. I watched online a broadcast of Mass from the Vailankanni Shrine in the Tamil Nadu state of India just after midnight last night--late morning in India. Was it in English, Hindi or another language ?
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Apr 12, 2020 9:30:33 GMT -5
Happy Easter to all. I watched online a broadcast of Mass from the Vailankanni Shrine in the Tamil Nadu state of India just after midnight last night--late morning in India. Was it in English, Hindi or another language ? English--though the priests did have rather strong accents. English is the language that unites India (at least its middle and upper classes) as there are so many regional languages. Of course, Hindi is widely spoken. I have, in my international travels, attended Mass in Spanish, French, German, and Norwegian
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Post by hchoops on Apr 13, 2020 8:48:34 GMT -5
Our alum’s leadership time may be ending There was a retweet of “Fire Fauci” this AM.
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Post by Ray on Apr 13, 2020 8:52:31 GMT -5
This is a great article. Is it possible Dr. Fauci is on his way to becoming the most well-known HC alum ever? His name comes up constantly in conversation and I make sure I tell everyone he went to HC. Of course, my brother went to Cornell and he was quick to claim him also. I know you can't quantify the benefit to HC, but his prominence, and the extent to which respect for him is widespread, will be of long-lasting effect in helping to attract the kind of students we all want on the Hill. He probably will become our best known alum among non sports fans, at least. And as future sports fans know less about the Cooz, Fauch may become number 1. I think Clarence Thomas is the current #1, not Cooz.
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Post by newfieguy74 on Apr 13, 2020 9:01:42 GMT -5
Our alum’s leadership time may be ending There was a retweet of “Fire Fauci” this AM. You might be right. As I understand it NIH is part of the Dept. of Health and Human Services so I imagine he can be fired by POTUS. I have recently read a lot about Dr. F. (the New Yorker article was very good) and it's hard not to get the feeling that, as diplomatic as he is, he is fearless and feels that part of his job--his mission--is to tell the truth and explain the science. He dispenses the truth carefully sometimes (i.e. so as not to step on sensitive toes) but dispense it he will.
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Post by rf1 on Apr 13, 2020 9:51:13 GMT -5
He probably will become our best known alum among non sports fans, at least. And as future sports fans know less about the Cooz, Fauch may become number 1. I think Clarence Thomas is the current #1, not Cooz. Probably not wrong in saying that Dr Fauci is far and away the most respected.
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Post by longsuffering on Apr 13, 2020 10:05:02 GMT -5
Dr. Fauci will have his pick of networks to work for and continue to educate the public if he gets fired. And the Secretary of HHS will have the opportunity for an Archibald Cox moment if he is ordered to fire Fauci.
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Post by alum on Apr 16, 2020 8:27:31 GMT -5
See this article in the WSJ about Dr. Fauci and his relationship with his mentor at the NIH. www.wsj.com/articles/the-mentor-who-made-dr-anthony-fauci-11587040520?mod=hp_lead_pos13It mentions his early work with a rare disease--granulomatosis with polyangiitis. Twenty years ago, I developed a related condition for which I was quite ably and successfully managed by my physician and friend, an HC classmate. I hope that the College asks people to give tomorrow in honor of its great alums, parents and friends working in all phases of our scientific and medical communities.
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