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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Apr 6, 2020 9:27:07 GMT -5
PP and Dado understand the economics far better and they can give a much better explanation from my understanding Models for theUS show 81k, but that has multiple variables and assumptions that get changed or adjusted. Global numbers will be significant, but the models should be more accurate in another 30 days as more complete data from the disease are captured the update covid19.healthdata.org/projectionsIt is very difficult to model this, because the U.S. economy has shifted from a predominately production economy to a predominately service economy. In 2018, there were 16.3 million Americans employed in the leisure and hospitality sector of the economy, 3.6 million more than the number of Americans who worked in manufacturing. 15.8 million worked in retail trade. Changes in employment, March 2020, by major industry sector. The data is mid-March, One can see three weeks ago where the big hits were already occurring, even prior to stay-at-home edicts. See link below: www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/otm-employment-change-by-industry-confidence-intervals.htmEmployment in the leisure and hospitality industry, in the retail trade industry, is highly dependent on consumer confidence in that dining out, or visiting Disneyworld, or going to a movie theater, or buying jeans at Bloomingdales will not make them sick. There will always be risk-takers, but there are far too few to support industry sectors that are this large, particularly when there are alternatives; e.g., watch an NFL game on tv or go to the stadium, where the guy in front of you is sneezing and coughing. ER visits by individuals not experiencing virus-related symptoms are down. The architect who designed Boston's City Hall lived in Rovckport MA, which is fairly isolated He went into Boston in mid-March for doctor's and dentist's appointments. Pronounced to be in good health. Somewhere in his travels (one can go by commuter train) and appointments, he became infected with the coronavirus and died at the end of March. I flew from Zurich about ten days after Lockerbie on Pan Am. The plane sitting on the tarmac was surrounded by armored cars. It makes one antsy. As it was, a woman passenger on the plane apparently had a stroke, and the pilot made an emergency diversion to Prestwick. I will say that a 747 dumping its tanks while over the Atlantic southeast of Iceland is an amazing sight.
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Post by efg72 on Apr 6, 2020 10:00:29 GMT -5
Thanks for the insights
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Post by rgs318 on Apr 6, 2020 11:01:36 GMT -5
longsuffering, As I am sure you know, human beings can't hear dog whistles, are you saying the President's backers are dogs and/or bitches? That "dog whistle" comment is insulting and seldom seen outside of left wing talking points. Rob, might be worth reading up on the history of the term. It's far from limited to one party/ideology.
Wikipedia - seldom thought of as accurate or unbiased. But, this time,it seems to have gotten it right. "Dog-whistle politics is political messaging employing coded language that appears to mean one thing to the population of the general public at large while also simultaneously having an additional, different, or more specific resonance for a targeted subgroup. The analogy is to a dog whistle, whose ultrasonic tone is heard by dogs but inaudible to humans." Of course that would mean if it were a "dog whistle" (the word 'politics' was not used in the original Crossports' post) it would not be heard by humans...thus calling people who hear the hidden meaning "dogs." The interesting things is that the "hidden meaning" is defined NOT by a subgroup but by those leveling the accusation based on their own bias against the subgroup. It does get tricky, especially when one group gets to decide on meaning for all, including for those subgroups to which they do not belong.
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Post by hc2020 on Apr 6, 2020 14:56:28 GMT -5
Oklahoma AD reports that some of the discussions have involved possibly delaying the upcoming football season to the spring.
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Post by longsuffering on Apr 6, 2020 16:10:40 GMT -5
If students can live together in a dorm then they can play together on a field or court and fans can sit together in the stands. Makes sense.
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Post by purplehaze on Apr 6, 2020 17:02:26 GMT -5
statement from Rutgers: “There will be no in-person classes, programs, camps, conferences or other activities at Rutgers University through at least August 14,” according to a letter from senior vice president of academic affairs Barbara Lee. “Information related to fall orientations and intercollegiate preseason athletic activity will be forthcoming.”
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Post by Crucis#1 on Apr 6, 2020 17:45:12 GMT -5
If students can live together in a dorm then they can play together on a field or court and fans can sit together in the stands. Makes sense. From a risk management standpoint, only if there are vaccines and pharmaceutical therapy available to the general population. Until then, I am not sitting in any stadium, arena, gym, rink, theatre, classroom, dining hall, lounge, pub, or restaurant. I will be a hermit. Becoming Rip Van Winkle is a viable option.
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Post by efg72 on Apr 6, 2020 17:55:11 GMT -5
Crucius you are a smart man I do Crossports right now for a break from the stress and anxiety coming from talking to the military and industry
I am in that vulnerable population, like many on the board, and there is great hope for us from the science but not as soon as tomorrow
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Post by Crucis#1 on Apr 6, 2020 18:04:25 GMT -5
Crucius you are a smart man I do Crossports right now for a break from the stress and anxiety coming from talking to the military and industry I am in that vulnerable population, like many on the board, and there is great hope for us from the science but not as soon as tomorrow Thanks EFG, I appreciate the compliment. Looking forward to celebrating with you our induction as Purple Knights, after the pandemic is over.
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Post by longsuffering on Apr 6, 2020 18:21:27 GMT -5
If students can live together in a dorm then they can play together on a field or court and fans can sit together in the stands. Makes sense. From a risk management standpoint, only if there are vaccines and pharmaceutical therapy available to the general population. Until then, I am not sitting in any stadium, arena, gym, rink, theatre, classroom, dining hall, lounge, pub, or restaurant. I will be a hermit. Becoming Rip Van Winkle is a viable option. I agree. Because a vaccine is not 100% effective it will take reliable medication to treat coronavirus also before it makes sense for any senior citizen to risk a crowded environment and probably for colleges to risk congregate living, learning and sports. How herd immunity factors in IDK. If testing becomes accessible and reliable maybe people will have to get a quick test to show they are not infected before being allowed in anywhere. The near term post Apex world is open to the imagination at this point.
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Post by efg72 on Apr 6, 2020 20:08:07 GMT -5
Sci fi is coming soon
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Post by timholycross on Apr 7, 2020 10:48:09 GMT -5
If students can live together in a dorm then they can play together on a field or court and fans can sit together in the stands. Makes sense. From a risk management standpoint, only if there are vaccines and pharmaceutical therapy available to the general population. Until then, I am not sitting in any stadium, arena, gym, rink, theatre, classroom, dining hall, lounge, pub, or restaurant. I will be a hermit. Becoming Rip Van Winkle is a viable option. Old folks like us are going to be the last to venture out (I can't imagine the recommendations being anything other than that)....the issue's going to be how much of the gen pop will be able to get on with their lives before us.
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Apr 7, 2020 17:09:50 GMT -5
Cuomo opined today on the sequence with respect to a return to work at the place of their employment. I believe he characterized them as waves. He emphasized this was his opinion, but clearly there are intense discussions underway about how and when to re-open, and he was likely voicing the prevailing sentiment of today (which can change). Basically, IIRC, 1.) Those who have had the virus, as they are immune, at least short-term. 2.) Those who are tested, and test negative. 3.) Younger individuals.. 4.) Older individuals. Most of those in the 70+ age at-risk category are retired. 5.) Those at risk because of underlying health conditions. The President is hepped on a quick return to 'normal'. He repeatedly references a V shaped curve; sharp drop in economic activity, followed by a sharp rebound. This is basically what happened in the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic. However, the Spanish flu occurred in three successive waves, and lasted six months. And as I noted earlier, the United States' economy in 1918 was strongly production oriented. Unemployment rate in 1918 was 1.6 Percent. In 1910, best reference year for that period (probably derived from the Census). Employment by category as a percentage of total employment 1910 / 2015 Manufacturing, mining and construction 38.2 / 20.2 Farming 30.9 / 0.7 Services 9.6 / 17.4 Sales 4.7 / 10.5 Nearly 70 percent of those working in 1910 were in production industries; 105 years later. 21 percent. Today, many 'service' establishments and businesses are entirely dependent on customers spending their discretionary income. Its not clear to me how one compels the general population to dine at a restaurant, go on a vacation, take yoga classes, attend football games\, etc. Wishing will not make it happen. Janet Yellen, former chair of the Fed, stated her concern that there would be no V-shaped rebound, but rather a slow prolonged recovery. IIRC, Yellen is one of this country's foremost authorities on the Great Depression. hehill.com/policy/finance/economy/490215-janet-yellen-coronavirus-downturn-is-different-than-any-weve-ever On March 24, the St. Louis Fed undertook a crude calculation of the possible unemployment rate in the 2Q of CY 2020: 32.1% www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2020/march/back-envelope-estimates-next-quarters-unemployment-rateIf that happened, I could run for President and win in a landslide. A 32 percent unemployment rate would generate pervasive and persistent fear throughout America. Before you sign on for my campaign committee, I am inclined to go with Jamie Dimon, head of JP Morgan Chase (and not because my niece is a banker there): A bad recession, similar to, but not worse than 2008-2009. reports.jpmorganchase.com/investor-relations/2019/ar-ceo-letters.htm
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Apr 8, 2020 7:03:19 GMT -5
The problems [glass is half empty] / challenges [glass is half full] with clearing this first group to return to work are that a.) there is little data on how many of those who have tested positive are actually members of the workforce (the exceptions being those positives who are health care workers, police, firefighters, EMTs, corrections officers) for which the dataset appears to be robust). If 20 percent of the test-positive cases are ages 70+, very few of those are members of the workforce. (Nearly 20 percent of the cases in MA are individuals aged 70+, two percent are under 19.) b.) to date, there has been no antibody testing, anywhere in the world, of a general population (to see who was infected but asymptomatic; e.g., individuals who were never tested for the presence of the live virus , or were tested, and tested negative but subsequently became infected and were never re-tested. c.) the antibody tests are still being developed, and none are apparently yet ready for large-scale deployment d.) the antibody test is tricky, because the common cold is a corona virus, and everyone has antibodies to the common cold. A test that targets a protein common to both the common cold and COVID-19 will produce a false result. For b.) c.) and d.), see article dated April 4, 2020 here: www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)30788-1.pdfThe Lancet is one of the very top medical journals in the world.
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Post by HCFC45 on Apr 8, 2020 10:10:07 GMT -5
Crucius you are a smart man I do Crossports right now for a break from the stress and anxiety coming from talking to the military and industry I am in that vulnerable population, like many on the board, and there is great hope for us from the science but not as soon as tomorrow In many ways Crossports increases one's stress and anxiety levels! ! There should be a disclaimer when logging on: "Caution: Crossports can be dangerous to your mental health/well being, proceed at your own risk"!
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Post by HC92 on Apr 9, 2020 11:19:52 GMT -5
The superintendent of schools in my town told a group of parents last night on a teleconference that she fully expects schools to reopen in our Central CT town on May 1. Seems like someone doesn’t have a tv or the internet.
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Post by lou on Apr 9, 2020 11:45:20 GMT -5
Good luck with that! I hope those kids continue to distance from grandma & grandpa
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Post by timholycross on Apr 9, 2020 12:31:37 GMT -5
Good luck with that! I hope those kids continue to distance from grandma & grandpa Given what I think the median age is of Crossports posters; a majority of us won't be taking the risk of changing our lifestyles until considerably after kids go back to school, whenever that is.
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Post by HC92 on Apr 9, 2020 13:07:44 GMT -5
Good luck with that! I hope those kids continue to distance from grandma & grandpa My kids aren’t going to school on May 1, whether the schools are open or not. I’m fine if they want to hold them back. I could use the extra year to re-grow the 529 accounts which have taken quite a hit.
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Post by rgs318 on Apr 9, 2020 13:32:38 GMT -5
My granddaughters are done attending school for the rest of this year. There is no way parents are going to risk their children's health with the impact of so many variables still unknown. Our oldest granddaughter will miss her school musical, spring sports and her graduation from 8th grade. BUT, we will have her with us next year. You are all in our prayers.
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Post by HC92 on Apr 9, 2020 14:27:58 GMT -5
Just got the notice that travel soccer in my town has cancelled the spring season. Hard to hide my joy from the kids.
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Post by ndgradbuthcfan on Apr 9, 2020 14:44:54 GMT -5
We haven't seen our grandkids for almost two months. They and their parents have been social distancing. If they were tested and found to be negative, I'm wondering why having them visit would be dangerous to us.
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Post by HCFC45 on Apr 9, 2020 14:49:10 GMT -5
Just got the notice that travel soccer in my town has cancelled the spring season. Hard to hide my joy from the kids. Now I know you are getting OLD! Welcome to the CLUB!
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Post by longsuffering on Apr 9, 2020 14:52:46 GMT -5
We haven't seen our grandkids for almost two months. They and their parents have been social distancing. If they were tested and found to be negative, I'm wondering why having them visit would be dangerous to us. It will be time for them to mow your lawn soon.
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Post by Ray on Apr 9, 2020 14:53:29 GMT -5
Here in MA, local schools are canceling April vacation and continuing "virtual school" that week. On one level, that makes sense, as all travel plans have been scrapped... so obviously everyone's available to stick with virtual school that week.
On the other hand, the tradeoff for staying in session that week is that they're moving the last day of school a week earlier in June, just a day-for-day exchange.
My sense is that a day of "actual" school in June is more valuable than a day of "virtual" school in April... so if these districts had any realistic hope that schools would re-open this year, they would take the April vacation as scheduled. Since they're not doing that, I conclude that the district leaders believe that schools are physically closed until September.
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