Kentucky Derby in September

Picking out a hat?

If he wins this, the dramatic focus will be on the Preakness instead of the already run Belmont.

What an unfortunate name change

What is the HC connection to Crusader Racing?

Brian Culnan, the subject of the interview above, is a member of the Class of 1989.

I had a great Kentucky Oaks Day capped off by hitting the late Pick Four 4 times. The late races were pretty chalky but the nightcap had a $32.00 winner and that generated a nice payoff. Now it's on to Derby Day and the weather looks great here in Louisville and it is so sad that we won't have the customary 150,000+ fans in attendance. I hope the protestors do not ruin the day..

This is a most unusual Derby as it is being held in September. The biggest effects that has on the race is that the runners are four months older and thus have matured more (4 months is a big deal for 3 year olds) and, more importantly, instead of none of them having run 10 furlongs before, many have already tried the distance (e.g. in the Travers) . So we thus have a very heavy and very deserving favorite in Tiz The Law. He is very talented and is already proven at the distance in romping home in the Travers in fast time, in hand, and winning by 5+ lengths. He may go off at 3-5 or even 2-5 today.

#17 Tiz The Law is a "stalker" or "pace presser", i.e. he likes to sit a length or two off the early leaders and then pounce in the stretch. #18 Authentic will likely be the front runner today and duel with #10 Thousand Words and #15 Ny Traffic, the NY-Bred with the Holy Cross connection. Tiz may be joined by #16 Honor A.P. who has a similar running style and who, in my opinion, is the second likeliest winner. The front runners will lead up to the mile. Tiz the Law will make his move as they round the final turn and head into Churchill Downs's very long (1,234.56 feet) stretch where I believe he will pull away from the front pack. Then he will need to dispose of Honor A.P. and hold off the "closers" (horses who like to run at the back of the pack and then put in a furious finish) .

Let's look at the closers. #3 Enforceable is an interesting closer as he is out of Tapit, a solid stamina influence, and his dam was an outstanding router on dirt. He can finish in the money at long odds (30-1 ML, who knows what at post time) . #2 Max Player, who finished 3rd in the Travers, is promising as well

Other Long shots: #13 Attachment Rate and #9 Mr Big News are 50-1 in the morning line but have the breeding to get the distance--they could finish third and key a very nice trifecta even with the odds on winner. #7 Money Moves will take a little more $$ than those two and is a real wild card as he has only raced three times

I play mostly "horizontals" (pick threes and fours and the pick six) and will have a few $$$ on some of the secondary runners above in those wagers. In "verticals" (trifecta and superfecta) I am going to key Tiz the Law on top and not spend any $$ trying to beat him. One way to include more runners would be to "Key" Tiz on top and  key another runner e.g. Honor AP, in the remaining spots. To illustrate--play a trifecta (1) 17 with 16 with 2,3,7,9,13,15 and  (2)17 with 2,3,7,9,13,15 with 16. That would total 12 bets , half the number of bets of the fools who will "box" four horses in a tri

Good luck to all and enjoy these great races

I had a great day yesterday and little luck today losing brutal photo finished in the 12th and 13th. So for the two days I was up nicely.

I did not have Authentic on top at all. Note that I did suggest Mr Big News could hit the board and he did at very long odds.

Each year I sponsor bets for my two daughters and this year daughter #1 picked Authentic WPS plus an exacta box with Tiz so she cashed big time. Daughter #2 went with Thousand Words and when that one scratched just before post time she switched to.....Authentic!!! She did not get the exacta.

Maybe next year I’ll just follow their lead!

Baffert is controversial in that it is widely believed that he is a juicer. His record in graded stakes races is phenomenal.

Kycrusader75 As my family watched the post parade, race and presentation of the roses, several members commented about the two Baffert horses being “startled” and wondered whether this jumpiness was just coincidence or some indication of possible juicing in view of previous incidents/allegations regarding Baffert horses. We’ll probably never know.