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Post by Non Alum Dave on Jan 5, 2021 6:36:40 GMT -5
One other observation from this humble correspondent: I know he struggled yesterday, but I'm bullish on Martindale. Just watching him put the ball on the floor for a drive, you can see he has a combination of power and burst that is going to be difficult for opponents to stop once he gets comfortable (especially at the PL level, with his size).
Very interested in seeing how they respond today, but not going to panic if it doesn't go well. At least we now see what they are trying to accomplish.
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Post by Non Alum Dave on Jan 5, 2021 8:20:48 GMT -5
Physically, JM reminds me a little bit of former AU player Sam Iorio.
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Post by bigfan on Jan 5, 2021 8:27:26 GMT -5
Looks good for the future. This team will need some time, should be a enjoyable season.
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Post by trimster on Jan 5, 2021 8:41:36 GMT -5
While there were encouraging signs yesterday, the bottom line is we have to play much better than that for the entire game to have a successful year against this schedule. We aren’t going to win many games allowing 80 + points, getting out rebounded by 9, shooting 40% from the line and turning the ball over 15 times. Yesterday was a missed opportunity to make a statement right out of the box. I think we can and will play better. We have to if we are to get things headed in a new direction.
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Post by WCHC Sports on Jan 5, 2021 9:21:05 GMT -5
Trimster has it right on some of these. Rebounding is something that has to be addressed. I thought the defense was good early-- very active, deflecting passes, taking chances on sloppy ball play by BU, good rotations in the first half. Later, I think some fatigue set in and HC defense will need energy to stay up against athletic opponents. The turnovers set in late, again, I think affected by fatigue. A young team has to learn to stay heady when they lose a step at the end of games. I also think that's reflected by the poor free throw shooting late too... although I have been complaining about a 60s% free throw rate as a team for over a decade.
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Post by newfieguy74 on Jan 5, 2021 9:38:10 GMT -5
My lengthy but unremarkable coaching career was limited to youth basketball (three sons) but I always felt, and still do, that any 12 year old with some athletic ability who's willing to practice should be able to shoot their free throws at 70%. It's hard for me to understand poor free throw shooting and the failure to box out. Neither takes a lot of talent.
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Post by hchoops on Jan 5, 2021 9:42:42 GMT -5
What FT percentage did your 12 year old teams shoot ? Even if only the athletic players who practiced. If it was 70%, you should work in the NBA.
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Post by WorcesterGray on Jan 5, 2021 9:52:31 GMT -5
I also think that's reflected by the poor free throw shooting late too... although I have been complaining about a 60s% free throw rate as a team for over a decade. Holy Cross FT % (Rank)
2011-12. 72.1% (78th) 2012-13. 75.3% (18th) 2013-14. 73.2% (63rd) 2014-15. 71.6% (96th)
2015-16. 68.7% (223rd) 2016-17. 69.3% (214th) 2017-18. 69.0% (269th) 2018-19. 66.7% (310th)
2019-20. 67.6% (282nd)
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Post by kot1972 on Jan 5, 2021 10:12:42 GMT -5
Observations: 1. Butler is a rock. I agree, great captain. My hope he shoots as well from 3 as yesterday for the whole season.2. Gates plays a man's game underneath. He did get posted up a few times but appears to play decent defense. If he was 2 inches taller, he would be in the Big East. Great addition.3. Martindale played like a freshman. I wonder why he's starting. Nice size, he will need time.4. Rabinovich looked lost, but it's way to early to judge him. We need his size. Our post defense is awful. Let's see if the big guys improve through the season.5. Montgomery, RJ, Townsel look talented. Agreed/quick and physical.6. Nelson can coach. Not sure yet. He can recruit but let's see his player development and game adjustments. 7. Rebounding is going to be an issue this year. That's a big problem. Our biggest problem/BU shot over 50% and had too many lay ups, post ups and free throws.8. We had some defensive lapses but a lot of good moments and great effort. Aggressive whole game/seemed to me they ran out of gas in 2nd half.9. We look more athletic than last year. Much more/fun to watch.10. It's interesting to speculate how big a difference Louth will make. Not sure/ but 5 more fouls and a few more rebounds would certainly help.See my comments above in red. Nice effort yesterday against tough experienced BU team. Scary part is their best player sat and 3 others, that may or may not be any good. We drew the worst POD with 3 good teams. I expect us to win more games than last year but not many more based on or POD. Nice to see BB again. All the new players seem to have skills and it will be interesting to see who improves the most. Question: do we get to have Gates for 3 seasons? Thanks. KOT
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jan 5, 2021 10:29:16 GMT -5
On the "How Many HC Wins" thread I offered a number of empirical reasons for why we went 3-29 last year and suggested that we could move forward if we improved on a number of them. Here's how we did yesterday (in parentheses)
Ineffective Defense Opponents made a high percentage of the threes- (did not improve) Opponents made a high percentage of their twos- (did not improve) We caused few turnovers- (we improved and caused 19 turnovers by BU) We were not a good rebounding team- (BU was strong on the offensive boards) So our opponents, get this, took 75 more FG attempts but made 150 more total baskets. In effect, we gave them extra shots and they made 200% of them....(We improved in this composite measure: we had more field goal attempts than BU, but BU made one more FG)
Ineffective offense We drew few fouls-- opponents took 140 more free throws and made 112 more than we did (we improved as each team took 20 free throws--we just didn't make ours) We had a mediocre 3 point percentage (we improved, shooting .400) We turned the ball over a lot--117 more turnovers than our opponents (we improved-BU turned it over more times than HC did) We did not rebound well on offense (we had a good day on the offensive boards-great day for GG)
Of course, these are just a few key measures and there are many more we must consider.
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Post by Tom on Jan 5, 2021 10:46:46 GMT -5
I also think that's reflected by the poor free throw shooting late too... although I have been complaining about a 60s% free throw rate as a team for over a decade. Holy Cross FT % (Rank)
2011-12. 72.1% (78th) 2012-13. 75.3% (18th) 2013-14. 73.2% (63rd) 2014-15. 71.6% (96th)
2015-16. 68.7% (223rd) 2016-17. 69.3% (214th) 2017-18. 69.0% (269th) 2018-19. 66.7% (310th)
2019-20. 67.6% (282nd)
Kind of amazing how tight that pack is. 71.6 percent => 96th in the country. a 5 percent drop to 66.7 percent => 310th in the country. Either 2/3 of college basketball fits into that 5 percent or free throw percentages have gone down for everyone in the last few years. We're lucky that we all know a really good FT teacher. Now we just need to utilize that asset.
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Post by Tom on Jan 5, 2021 10:55:20 GMT -5
On the "How Many HC Wins" thread I offered a number of empirical reasons for why we went 3-29 last year and suggested that we could move forward if we improved on a number of them. Here's how we did yesterday (in parentheses)Ineffective DefenseOpponents made a high percentage of the threes- (did not improve)Opponents made a high percentage of their twos- (did not improve)We caused few turnovers- (we improved and caused 19 turnovers by BU)We were not a good rebounding team- (BU was strong on the offensive boards)So our opponents, get this, took 75 more FG attempts but made 150 more total baskets. In effect, we gave them extra shots and they made 200% of them.... (We improved in this composite measure: we had more field goal attempts than BU, but BU made one more FG)Ineffective offenseWe drew few fouls-- opponents took 140 more free throws and made 112 more than we did (we improved as each team took 20 free throws--we just didn't make ours)We had a mediocre 3 point percentage (we improved, shooting .400)We turned the ball over a lot--117 more turnovers than our opponents (we improved-BU turned it over more times than HC did)We did not rebound well on offense (we had a good day on the offensive boards-great day for GG)Of course, these are just a few key measures and there are many more we must consider. In the first half, I thought BU was pretty bad from the 3, Even though they had some pretty good looks. Box score says 3-11 in the first half Amazingly HC did worse than that from the line in the second half. 3-14. Watching I knew they were missing a lot, but that is more abysmal than I thought it was. Faw and I think Gates followed up missed medium length 2's by getting their own rebound and putting it back in. No one has a better idea of where a missed shot is going to go than the shooter
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Post by WCHC Sports on Jan 5, 2021 10:58:44 GMT -5
I also think that's reflected by the poor free throw shooting late too... although I have been complaining about a 60s% free throw rate as a team for over a decade. Holy Cross FT % (Rank)
2011-12. 72.1% (78th) 2012-13. 75.3% (18th) 2013-14. 73.2% (63rd) 2014-15. 71.6% (96th)
2015-16. 68.7% (223rd) 2016-17. 69.3% (214th) 2017-18. 69.0% (269th) 2018-19. 66.7% (310th)
2019-20. 67.6% (282nd)
Excuse me, average of just points over 70%, with the 60s range only coming over the last 5 seasons. It's felt twice as long I guess.
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Post by hchoops on Jan 5, 2021 11:11:55 GMT -5
Highlights
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Post by timholycross on Jan 5, 2021 11:35:32 GMT -5
Holy Cross FT % (Rank)
2011-12. 72.1% (78th) 2012-13. 75.3% (18th) 2013-14. 73.2% (63rd) 2014-15. 71.6% (96th)
2015-16. 68.7% (223rd) 2016-17. 69.3% (214th) 2017-18. 69.0% (269th) 2018-19. 66.7% (310th)
2019-20. 67.6% (282nd)
Kind of amazing how tight that pack is. 71.6 percent => 96th in the country. a 5 percent drop to 66.7 percent => 310th in the country. Either 2/3 of college basketball fits into that 5 percent or free throw percentages have gone down for everyone in the last few years. We're lucky that we all know a really good FT teacher. Now we just need to utilize that asset. I've said this before in different conversations- what's worse about some of these years is the attempts, not the successes. In Carmody's last two years, the team was 341st and 352nd in free throw attempts. Even if they led the country in percentage, it would not have made huge difference in the team's success. I didn't spend a lot of time on this, but it looks like the Milan Brown years were typically in the 200s for fta ranking (one outlier in the 300s). The last two times HC was in the 100s were Ralph's final year and Sean Kearney's season.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jan 5, 2021 11:45:16 GMT -5
The team making more free throws wins maybe 70% of the time--have studied this before. A small portion of this may be due to late game desperation fouling but it's pretty clear you need to get to the line and make shots--think Zach Thomas of Bucknell
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Post by rickii on Jan 5, 2021 12:35:29 GMT -5
KY -
" We caused few turnovers- (we improved and caused 19 turnovers by BU) "
So BU had no turnovers that were self-inflicted ?
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jan 5, 2021 12:48:10 GMT -5
KY - " We caused few turnovers- (we improved and caused 19 turnovers by BU) " So BU had no turnovers that were self-inflicted ? Come on--t he key is not what caused the turnovers the key is how many there are. Check the common stat recaps--I think you'll see "points off turnovers" not "points off self-inflicted turnovers" and "points off turnovers caused by the defense". Just as we can argue about how many were self-inflicted this game we could debate what percentage were self-inflicted last season. So, for clarity, let's change my copy from " We caused few turnovers- (we improved and caused 19 turnovers by BU) " to "We caused few turnovers- (the result improved as 19 turnovers were committed by BU versus an average of 11 opponent turnovers per game last season)
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Post by hchoops on Jan 5, 2021 12:55:02 GMT -5
Agree with the bold No need to change your description Leave that for tennis
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Post by WorcesterGray on Jan 5, 2021 13:05:51 GMT -5
I've said this before in different conversations- what's worse about some of these years is the attempts, not the successes. In Carmody's last two years, the team was 341st and 352nd in free throw attempts. Even if they led the country in percentage, it would not have made huge difference in the team's success. I didn't spend a lot of time on this, but it looks like the Milan Brown years were typically in the 200s for fta ranking (one outlier in the 300s). The last two times HC was in the 100s were Ralph's final year and Sean Kearney's season. Agreed.
Dean Oliver's "Four Factors" analysis, which I posted for each of our games last year, doesn't include FT%. Rather, it looks at free-throw rate (FTR), defined as FTA/FGA. That gives better insight into how a team is attacking the basket (and drawing fouls on penetrations). Carmody's teams (not just at HC, but everywhere), had FTRs in the 20-25% range, consistently among the lowest in the country - and consistent with his conflict-avoidant approach at the offensive end. Milan Brown's teams were somewhat higher, generally in the 30-33% range. Last year, with Carmody's players, HC had an FTR of just 25%, 334th in the country.
Yesterday, our FTR was 30% (20/67), which is not very good. Willard's teams usually ranked quite high in FTR, leading the country in 2000-01.
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Post by hchoops on Jan 5, 2021 13:13:36 GMT -5
Our FT rate could improve with Louth returning and possibly tighter inside officiating with PL refs, which we will probably see today The problem with that possible officiating change is Gerrale getting in more foul trouble, which we cannot afford, even when Louth can play.
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Post by rickii on Jan 5, 2021 13:23:41 GMT -5
KY - " We caused few turnovers- (we improved and caused 19 turnovers by BU) " So BU had no turnovers that were self-inflicted ? Come on--t he key is not what caused the turnovers the key is how many there are. Check the common stat recaps--I think you'll see "points off turnovers" not "points off self-inflicted turnovers" and "points off turnovers caused by the defense". Just as we can argue about how many were self-inflicted this game we could debate what percentage were self-inflicted last season. So, for clarity, let's change my copy from " We caused few turnovers- (we improved and caused 19 turnovers by BU) " to "We caused few turnovers- (the result improved as 19 turnovers were committed by BU versus an average of 11 opponent turnovers per game last season) Prefer debate rather than argue... One example of self-inflicted - dribbling ball off foot out of bounds hoops is right about tennis - i.e. double faults, foot on end line while serving BTW, maybe some trivia....player drives the lane, makes contact with defender, gets whistled for an offensive foul. Is that also scored as a turnover ?
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Post by Tom on Jan 5, 2021 13:50:12 GMT -5
Semi off topic for people who didn't watch the game. - HC got a flop warning. I don't recall that happening before. As the announcer described it, a second offense would have been a technical. Not sure if this a new rule. It should be sufficient penalty that your team has to play 4 on 5 while you rest on the floor, but flops have gotten out of hand. There used to be a radio announcer who, if a player tricked the ref into a bad foul call by flopping, called the player a stanislavski player. In that spirit, I tried to convince former poster and WCHC broadcaster Holty to refer to opponents who did that as drama majors.
Not flopping at all, but a sign that Gates is a really solid kid, there were multiple times when Gates got fouled, but the BU player was the one on the floor
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Post by WorcesterGray on Jan 5, 2021 13:52:02 GMT -5
One other observation from this humble correspondent: I know he struggled yesterday, but I'm bullish on Martindale. Just watching him put the ball on the floor for a drive, you can see he has a combination of power and burst that is going to be difficult for opponents to stop once he gets comfortable (especially at the PL level, with his size). Martindale missed the first shot of the season (a 3-pointer) 18 seconds in, then picked up two quick fouls four minutes later. Never looked comfortable again.
He needs to come out confidently today and attack the basket to set up his outside game. The kid can play.
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Post by newfieguy74 on Jan 5, 2021 14:00:49 GMT -5
Semi off topic for people who didn't watch the game. - HC got a flop warning. I don't recall that happening before. As the announcer described it, a second offense would have been a technical. Not sure if this a new rule. It should be sufficient penalty that your team has to play 4 on 5 while you rest on the floor, but flops have gotten out of hand. There used to be a radio announcer who, if a player tricked the ref into a bad foul call by flopping, called the player a stanislavski player. In that spirit, I tried to convince former poster and WCHC broadcaster Holty to refer to opponents who did that as drama majors. Not flopping at all, but a sign that Gates is a really solid kid, there were multiple times when Gates got fouled, but the BU player was the one on the floor Wasn't it Johnny Most who used the term "stanislavski" to describe a flopper?
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