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Post by Tom on Jan 20, 2021 9:14:01 GMT -5
To keep poor Whitey Ford from being lumped in with Generalissimo Francisco Franco, I'm starting a new thread
The Hall of Fame lost yet another member. Don Sutton passed away yesterday. Back in the days before interleague play, it was not uncommon to have a second team from the other league. A team you could kind of like but never interfered with your home town team unless they met in the World Series. Mine was the Dodgers, so I was a Sutton fan. That being said, in my opinion he was the poster child of Cooperstown sometimes using longevity as a substitute for greatness. A quick stat check says that once in his career he finished as high as 3rd in Cy Young voting.
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Post by timholycross on Jan 20, 2021 10:19:39 GMT -5
No current player will do what he did- 200 innings or more per season 20 times. And, yes, like a lot of others in the Hall of Fame, I put him in the Hall of Very Good instead.
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Post by WorcesterGray on Jan 20, 2021 16:51:46 GMT -5
To keep poor Whitey Ford from being lumped in with Generalissimo Francisco Franco, I'm starting a new thread Don Sutton passed away yesterday. . . . he was the poster child of Cooperstown sometimes using longevity as a substitute for greatness. A quick stat check says that once in his career he finished as high as 3rd in Cy Young voting. And each of the four years prior to that, he finished in the top five.
Don Sutton is the poster child for the wisdom of the five-man rotation. The 1972 Dodgers were one of the first teams to employ it, and as Bill James has noted, Sutton was the first great pitcher to work most of his career in that environment - which may have been the factor that enabled him to pitch very well for a very long time.
Only Cy Young and Nolan Ryan started more games than Sutton. There's something to be said for longevity, when you're talking about a high-quality workhorse that you can confidently give the ball to for 20+ years, and it's not hard to find less worthy plaques in Cooperstown. Worth recalling, too, that there's a boatload of guys who won a Cy Young and will never sniff the Hall.
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Post by Tom on Jan 21, 2021 9:02:30 GMT -5
Yes - he finished in the top 5, 5 times. He still doesn't make my great meter. When Tom Seaver joined the Red Sox, I ran down to Fenway and his first game to see him live. When Steve Carlton went to Minnesota late in his career, I ran down to Fenway the day he was scheduled to pitch to see him live. I did not do that when Sutton went to the AL late in his career. Not at all scientific, just the way I feel.
When Pedro Martinez pitched for the Red Sox, attendance bumped up for the games he was pitching. He was great fort those years and people wanted to see him. I'm not sure that happened with Sutton
Basically he was about a 15-12 pitcher. Solid guy who I would want on my staff, but not great. If that's my #2 starter, I'm probably in the middle of the pack. If that's my #3 pitcher I'm probably a contender. 15-12 for 20 years gets you 300 wins which is a rare accomplishment, but it strikes me as the definition of longevity more than excellence
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Post by alum on Jan 21, 2021 10:03:18 GMT -5
Yes - he finished in the top 5, 5 times. He still doesn't make my great meter. When Tom Seaver joined the Red Sox, I ran down to Fenway and his first game to see him live. When Steve Carlton went to Minnesota late in his career, I ran down to Fenway the day he was scheduled to pitch to see him live. I did not do that when Sutton went to the AL late in his career. Not at all scientific, just the way I feel. When Pedro Martinez pitched for the Red Sox, attendance bumped up for the games he was pitching. He was great fort those years and people wanted to see him. I'm not sure that happened with Sutton Basically he was about a 15-12 pitcher. Solid guy who I would want on my staff, but not great. If that's my #2 starter, I'm probably in the middle of the pack. If that's my #3 pitcher I'm probably a contender. 15-12 for 20 years gets you 300 wins which is a rare accomplishment, but it strikes me as the definition of longevity more than excellence I used to have to listen at times to WFAN for sports talk when WEEI wasn't as available in Connecticut. As little as I liked Francesca, he did have a good way to deal with the longevity issue. He said a voter should look at a player's top 10 years and compare them to others during the same era. So, for Don Sutton from 1969-78, he averaged 17-13 with a 3.04 ERA starting more than 36 games and throwing about 262 innings per year. He had a WAR of 34 during that time. As noted, his highest Cy Young vote was 3 although he was top 5 five times. I would note that using Cy Young voting alone suffers from the fact that writers may have been getting it wrong, too. In order to complete the calculation with the minimum of work on my part, I looked at only one easily found stat--wins leaders for those years. During that era, it was not unusual for their to be 10+ guys with 20 wins each year. Sutton never won 20 games. In light of that, it is hard for me to think he should have been elected to the Hall of Fame. He was a compiler--like say, Derek Jeter.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jan 21, 2021 10:30:03 GMT -5
Clearly he is a longevity play when it comes to HOF credentials. Baseball-Reference ranks him 73rd among starting pitchers but when you looks at his 7 year WAR (Like alum, I'd prefer a 10 year period) he comes in at #173. His ERA+ (compares pitcher's ERA to league ERA and adjusts for the ballpark) of 108 has him tied for #391 for his career. It might be interesting to compare his W-L percentage to his team's over the years, but that is not a perfect stat as he'd be "punished" for being on a team with other good pitchers. In any case, may he rest in peace.
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Post by hchoops on Jan 21, 2021 10:46:48 GMT -5
I wonder if his 3.04 ERA for the 10 year period referenced above places him more favorable in relation to his peers.than the 7 year ERAplus you reference ? 3.04 over 10 seems pretty strong
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jan 21, 2021 11:20:54 GMT -5
I wonder if his 3.04 ERA for the 10 year period referenced above places him more favorable in relation to his peers.than the 7 year ERAplus you reference ? 3.04 over 10 seems pretty strong The NL ERA for that period was about 3.64 . So that 3.04 looks good but not extraordinary, especially since he had the benefit of pitching in Dodger Stadium, a pitcher's park. For his career he had a 2.81 ERA at home and a 3.77 ERA on the road, quite a difference. Some pitchers for reference--a couple of Dodgers and some others Don Drysdale: 2.53 Home ERA/ 3.41 Road ERA Sandy Koufax: 2.48/3.04 Steve Carlton: 3.05 /3.39 Curt Schilling: 3.43/3.49 Luis Tiant: 3.23/3.38 Fergie Jenkins: 3.44/3.33
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Post by hchoops on Jan 21, 2021 11:38:35 GMT -5
Thanks
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Post by Tom on Jan 21, 2021 11:50:08 GMT -5
The comparison of home vs road for Drysdale and Koufax is interesting and significant.
The other guys had significant parts of their career in places other than the team we associate them with, For half of Schillings starts his home field was the Vet. But for half of his starts it was someplace else. If part of your career is in a pitchers park for a home field and part of your career is in a bandbox for a home field, the numbers can get a little more complicated to dissect.
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Post by hchoops on Jan 21, 2021 11:56:04 GMT -5
Sandy K’s road ERA is still better than anyone on this short list.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jan 21, 2021 12:26:21 GMT -5
I think the "adjusted ERA+" can be a great equalizer for comparing players across the years and from different ballclubs. Of course, there is more to the game than sterile statistics, although they are very important.
Sandy Koufax is a good example-while he was hurt for a very short period in his career by Ebbetts Field, a real hitter's ballpark, he was helped by pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium. His Career ERA+ of 131 takes all this into account and has him ranked #40 all-time in that category. It is so unfortunate that Sandy had to retire at age 30 after having his best season
Here's a couple of more stats to put Koufax's final season (27-9 and led NL with 1.73 ERA and 27 CG)
5-8 when the Dodgers scored 0,1,2 runs and he got the decisions 22-1 when the Dodgers scored 3 or more runs and he got the decision
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Post by WorcesterGray on Jan 21, 2021 13:20:30 GMT -5
I wonder if his 3.04 ERA for the 10 year period referenced above places him more favorable in relation to his peers.than the 7 year ERAplus you reference ? 3.04 over 10 seems pretty strong Baseball-ref has year-by-year leader-boards for "adjusted ERA+," which tries to account for ballpark factors. For the 1969-78 time frame, Sutton doesn't fare particularly well, ranked among the top ten just three times (1971-73). Top performers for the period were Seaver, who ranked in the top ten six times (including 1st three times in four years), and Palmer with seven top ten appearances.
Fwiw, top three career performers by this metric - Rivera, Kershaw, and Pedro.
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Post by hchoops on Jan 21, 2021 13:25:54 GMT -5
Hardly 3 of even the top 15 imo Actually 2, Hard to compare relievers to starters
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jan 21, 2021 14:52:42 GMT -5
Rivera's ERA+ of 205 is other worldly-I think it basically means that the league had an ERA 2X his over the course of his career. That Kershaw is #2 with 158 shows you how extraordinary Rivera was . Against him, batters batted .211 with a .262 OBP and a slugging average of .293-absolutely amazing
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Post by hchoops on Jan 21, 2021 15:00:27 GMT -5
As great a reliever as Rivera was, it is so hard to compare him to starters. He most often threw one inning at a time, maybe facing the heart of the order, maybe not. Starters(not openers) used to face the best hitters, 3, 4, even sometimes 5 times a game.Even today, they(except on the Rays) usually face them at least three times.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jan 21, 2021 15:47:19 GMT -5
Okay-- one last tidbit on the great Sandy Koufax: can you believe that he does not even have the best ERA+ (again, he is #40 all-time) of players from his high school?
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Post by WorcesterGray on Jan 21, 2021 15:53:19 GMT -5
Okay-- one last tidbit on the great Sandy Koufax: can you believe that he does not even have the best ERA+ (again, he is #40 all-time) of players left-handed pitchers from his high school? Fixed it . . .
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Post by WorcesterGray on Jan 21, 2021 15:54:58 GMT -5
Puts one in mind of Bill James' comment that Ken Griffey, Jr. was "the second-best left-handed hitting, left-handed throwing outfielder ever born in Donora, Pennsylvania on November 21st."
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Post by alum on Jan 21, 2021 15:59:53 GMT -5
Okay-- one last tidbit on the great Sandy Koufax: can you believe that he does not even have the best ERA+ (again, he is #40 all-time) of players from his high school? This is a great question. I know that a great reliever attended Lafayette High in Brooklyn so I am thinking that it must be him. I'll let hchoops answer and maybe he can tell us if that guy also played basketball as Koufax did.
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Post by Tom on Jan 21, 2021 16:02:37 GMT -5
At the risk of straying too far off topic, if a pitcher knows he's going out there for just one inning, he can rear back and throw a little harder. .Dennis Eckersley (like a Rivera a HoF'er but off topic because they're alive) had regressed to a pretty average starter when he got moved to the closer role. From there he was able to excel in the role right into Cooperstown
Elite closers tend to have a short lifespan, It pains me to say this about a Yankee , but for Rivera to be on top for as long as he was puts him in a class by himself. Best closer evah. (and as such deserving of Cooperstown). In my opinion, being the best closer does not mean you are one of the best pitchers ever. There's a reason John Smoltz after a few years as a one of the best closers in the game went back into the starting rotation. Because he could. If I have a stud pitcher, I'd rather have 200 innings of awesome than 60
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jan 21, 2021 16:19:26 GMT -5
At the risk of straying too far off topic, if a pitcher knows he's going out there for just one inning, he can rear back and throw a little harder. .Dennis Eckersley (like a Rivera a HoF'er but off topic because they're alive) had regressed to a pretty average starter when he got moved to the closer role. From there he was able to excel in the role right into Cooperstown Elite closers tend to have a short lifespan, It pains me to say this about a Yankee , but for Rivera to be on top for as long as he was puts him in a class by himself. Best closer evah. (and as such deserving of Cooperstown). In my opinion, being the best closer does not mean you are one of the best pitchers ever. There's a reason John Smoltz after a few years as a one of the best closers in the game went back into the starting rotation. Because he could. If I have a stud pitcher, I'd rather have 200 innings of awesome than 60Tom-- this is one of the best analyses I have seen in quite some time. The mathematicians that analyze baseball agree with you as while Rivera is the highest ranking reliever of all-time when it comes to "WAR", he's only #79 among all pitchers, right behind Dave Steib and Tim Hudson....
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Post by hchoops on Jan 21, 2021 17:18:47 GMT -5
Okay-- one last tidbit on the great Sandy Koufax: can you believe that he does not even have the best ERA+ (again, he is #40 all-time) of players from his high school? This is a great question. I know that a great reliever attended Lafayette High in Brooklyn so I am thinking that it must be him. I'll let hchoops answer and maybe he can tell us if that guy also played basketball as Koufax did. John Franco went to Lafayette. I never heard that he played basketball the only reason that Franco has a higher ERA+ than Sandy who befriended him is that Franco pitched over 1100 games
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Post by Tom on Jan 22, 2021 13:06:05 GMT -5
Stolen from the Whitey Ford thread and updated for Aaron. Just as an ongoing record of big name baseball players we've lost in the last 12 months
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Post by Non Alum Dave on Jan 22, 2021 13:21:03 GMT -5
Wow.....if we were to assume they don't use the DH in heaven, who the heck is going to sit amongst those 4 outfielders?? Or do they play 4 at a time, a la softball?
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