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Post by HC92 on Feb 18, 2021 10:28:57 GMT -5
Just listened to Governor Lamont's press conference. He indicated that restaurants could go to 50% capacity on March 19th. He will allow a maximum of 100 people at indoor events and 200 people at outdoor events. He said he would have information about high school sports on Thursday and specifically mentioned "seeing your kid play hockey or basketball" so I think we in Connecicut are moving toward a spring where some attendance at outdoor sporting events might be possible. Covid numbers with robust testing have been below 3% positivity for a week now, hospitalizations are dropping, and only two people died yesterday which has to be the lowest in months. He did express concern about these variants ruining the progress but had the happy news that Conn would be getting about a lot more vaccines next week and going forward. I have to think that by September life will be pretty close to normal in the United States (fingers crossed) and that Fitton Field will be open for business. Two household members are already permitted at high school hoop games in CT, at least at the two high schools my kids attend (one included with my tax bill and one private).
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Post by rgs318 on Feb 18, 2021 10:31:48 GMT -5
In New Jersey, Bergen Catholic is having what may be the best season in its history. They just beat St Joe Regional (Montvale). That makes FOUR previously undefeated teams they have beaten in their last 4 games. Their games are video streamed but no fans have been in attendance for any of these games. I am not sure if this has helped the concentration of this young team or not. But I am sure their are many fans and family members who wanted to be there.
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Post by HC92 on Feb 18, 2021 10:36:14 GMT -5
There is zero reason not to let parents watch their kids play in person.
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Post by hc2020 on Feb 18, 2021 11:28:00 GMT -5
During last week’s webcast, HC AD seemed to suggest that there is a good chance that some fans will be able to attend games later in the abbreviated spring season, which seems to suggest that the Bucknell game and the PL championship game (if we qualify and are deemed the home team) are perhaps within grasp (if all goes well). We’ll see...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 18, 2021 11:50:10 GMT -5
During last week’s webcast, HC AD seemed to suggest that there is a good chance that some fans will be able to attend games later in the abbreviated spring season, which seems to suggest that the Bucknell game and the PL championship game (if we qualify and are deemed the home team) are perhaps within grasp (if all goes well). We’ll see... Where would you place the betting odds that the Patriot League plays the spring season as advertised? -800, -1200?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 18, 2021 11:53:26 GMT -5
I guess technically, you would have to bet on if there will be a "Patriot League Championship" with the Fordham issues? At this point, have absolutely zero faith in PL administration in executing a spring season.
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Post by Tom on Feb 18, 2021 13:01:52 GMT -5
In the history of the league, Patriot League administration has never had any issues executing a spring football season
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Post by timholycross on Feb 18, 2021 14:13:37 GMT -5
In the history of the league, Patriot League administration has never had any issues executing a spring football season
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Feb 18, 2021 21:08:43 GMT -5
There is zero reason not to let parents watch their kids play in person. Some would say “needs vs. wants”
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Post by bfoley82 on Feb 18, 2021 21:57:05 GMT -5
There is zero reason not to let parents watch their kids play in person. Here is the reason to NOT let them in...100 sets of Holy Cross parents (and more) travel to the Worcester area. Let's say they are not allowed to meet up with their son right after the game, you think they aren't sticking around to see their kid?? Why introduce outsiders to infect a team member?
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Post by nycrusader2010 on Feb 19, 2021 8:42:33 GMT -5
There is zero reason not to let parents watch their kids play in person. Here is the reason to NOT let them in...100 sets of Holy Cross parents (and more) travel to the Worcester area. Let's say they are not allowed to meet up with their son right after the game, you think they aren't sticking around to see their kid?? Why introduce outsiders to infect a team member? Sad that this is where we're at right now. Hopefully vaccine distribution moves faster than the creation of new reasons for why lockdown procedures need to be extended for whatever reason => "New strain!", "Vaccine antibodies wear off", "Mask mandate needs to stay in place forever", etc.
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Post by hcpride on Feb 19, 2021 9:27:25 GMT -5
Here is the reason to NOT let them in...100 sets of Holy Cross parents (and more) travel to the Worcester area. Let's say they are not allowed to meet up with their son right after the game, you think they aren't sticking around to see their kid?? Why introduce outsiders to infect a team member? Sad that this is where we're at right now. Hopefully vaccine distribution moves faster than the creation of new reasons for why lockdown procedures need to be extended for whatever reason => "New strain!", "Vaccine antibodies wear off", "Mask mandate needs to stay in place forever", etc. I remain hopeful science will triumph and remove some of the fears. For example, seven or eight months ago folks across the US were scrupulously donning gloves in stores and furiously wiping packages delivered to their homes. Not to mention buying up all sorts of cleaning supplies. Eventually the science sunk in regarding this respiratory virus and an assessments of the actual risks so folks (OK, there are always outliers) halted this practice. In my own school district there was a fear Covid spreads in the school classrooms, busses, and hallways despite enforced masks and attempts at social distancing - the data showed this is not the case (OK, there are always outliers) folks assessed the risks and so the kids are back in my school. There was a fear of outdoor sports participation, eventually the science sunk in regarding outdoor practices and games, folks assessed the risks and the outdoor games (OK, there are always outliers) returned. Ditto the return of kids to college campuses. The science on college age folks and Covid is pretty clear (OK, there are always outliers). We've all seen outdoor fans at all sorts of venues on TV (golf, football, etc) in a manner supported by the science. I'd expect that to eventually occur with fans at outdoor college sports here at HC. All this without a universally administered vaccine!
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Post by timholycross on Feb 19, 2021 10:39:06 GMT -5
Here is the reason to NOT let them in...100 sets of Holy Cross parents (and more) travel to the Worcester area. Let's say they are not allowed to meet up with their son right after the game, you think they aren't sticking around to see their kid?? Why introduce outsiders to infect a team member? Sad that this is where we're at right now. Hopefully vaccine distribution moves faster than the creation of new reasons for why lockdown procedures need to be extended for whatever reason => "New strain!", "Vaccine antibodies wear off", "Mask mandate needs to stay in place forever", etc. I always thought the tipping point was "herd immunity". Wonder whether there will be additional "new reasons" (listed above by nycrusader2010) at that point.
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Post by hc87 on Feb 19, 2021 13:12:40 GMT -5
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Post by nycrusader2010 on Feb 19, 2021 13:20:11 GMT -5
Sad that this is where we're at right now. Hopefully vaccine distribution moves faster than the creation of new reasons for why lockdown procedures need to be extended for whatever reason => "New strain!", "Vaccine antibodies wear off", "Mask mandate needs to stay in place forever", etc. I always thought the tipping point was "herd immunity". Wonder whether there will be additional "new reasons" (listed above by nycrusader2010) at that point. Well, the tipping point has changed a lot over a year. Last March, it was "flatten the curve" to ensure hospitals didn't become or remain overwhelmed. But we've gone from "flatten the curve" to "no one's allowed to get sick ever" as the threshold for re-opening. But I certainly pray and am hopeful that the mass vaccinations taking place between now and the fall largely achieve the herd immunity you describe, with some anomalies. I was looking at charts in the NY Times showing that daily new cases have already been on the downswing nationally for a month. Herd immunity in the case of COVID has been quite a challenge to achieve, due in large part because contracting the virus itself only makes you immune for a period of months. Fingers crossed that this "second wave" ends up being the last wave.
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Post by nycrusader2010 on Feb 19, 2021 13:21:12 GMT -5
Great news, this game was moved from Thursday night. Hope it's a night game and my guess is it will be. All things considered, not at all a bad schedule for UCONN for Fall 2021.
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Post by hcpride on Feb 19, 2021 13:35:06 GMT -5
I always thought the tipping point was "herd immunity". Wonder whether there will be additional "new reasons" (listed above by nycrusader2010) at that point. Well, the tipping point has changed a lot over a year. Last March, it was "flatten the curve" to ensure hospitals didn't become or remain overwhelmed. But we've gone from "flatten the curve" to "no one's allowed to get sick ever" as the threshold for re-opening. But I certainly pray and am hopeful that the mass vaccinations taking place between now and the fall largely achieve the herd immunity you describe, with some anomalies. I was looking at charts in the NY Times showing that daily new cases have already been on the downswing nationally for a month. Herd immunity in the case of COVID has been quite a challenge to achieve, due in large part because contracting the virus itself only makes you immune for a period of months. Fingers crossed that this "second wave" ends up being the last wave. Here's a WSJ piece from yesterday making the rounds that has a rather optimistic look and hits a couple of very significant details not necessarily seen elsewhere: www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731
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Post by HC92 on Feb 19, 2021 14:10:07 GMT -5
There is zero reason not to let parents watch their kids play in person. Here is the reason to NOT let them in...100 sets of Holy Cross parents (and more) travel to the Worcester area. Let's say they are not allowed to meet up with their son right after the game, you think they aren't sticking around to see their kid?? Why introduce outsiders to infect a team member? So, we agree that allowing 200 people to watch an outdoor game while masked and distant isn’t a problem. Good to know.
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Feb 19, 2021 17:05:53 GMT -5
That WSJ op ed by a Johns Hopkins physician is a piece of garbage; he is an pancreatic oncologist who practices at a hospital that I have used. This op ed is akin to the women's field hockey coach giving advice to coach Nelson on whether to play zone or man-to-man. (They're both coaches, after all.)
If the U.S. was already at / near herd immunity as this surgeon posits, then the number of new cases in MA long term care facilities should be nearly nil, given the very high incidence of infection (and death) in these facilities during 2020. In the six weeks between Jan 3rd and February 18th, there were 3,500 new cases in these facilities, 31,000 cases for all of 2020.
Twenty percent of the resident population of Chelsea MA (about 8,000 individuals) has tested positive for the virus. Given this doctor's predicate that COVID infection was/is far more widespread than reported, one would expect new cases in Chelsea to now be nearly nil as most were already infected and have immunity; 323 positive tests in Chelsea between Feb 2 and Feb 16. That is not much below an average of 360 cases per two week period during Mar-Dec 2020. ________________
IMO, HC's priorities for the spring semester, as these affect visitors on-campus.
1.) Complete the spring-semester on-campus without interruption. 2.) In-person commencement for the class of 2021. 3.) In-person summer session beginning end of May. 4.) All sports safely complete their competitive schedules without interruption. 5.) In-person re-enactment of commencement for the class of 2020. 6.) Fans in the stands, provided that this will not compromise 1-4. 7.) Reunions
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Post by hcpride on Feb 19, 2021 18:39:32 GMT -5
That WSJ op ed by a Johns Hopkins physician is a piece of garbage; he is an pancreatic oncologist who practices at a hospital that I have used. This op ed is akin to the women's field hockey coach giving advice to coach Nelson on whether to play zone or man-to-man. Well, the practicing MD at the Johns Hopkins Hospital also has an MPH (Harvard) and is a Professor of Health Policy and Management at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health . He is quite accomplished beyond your description. I think his suggestion is that we may essentially be at herd immunity (between recovered folks and vaccinated folks) by early April. Beyond that, I don’t know if the US’ overall sharp decline in cases and hospitalizations is reflected at all particular locations in the US (or MA for that matter) but the decline (and various explanations thereof) is being covered: www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/02/why-covid-19-cases-are-falling-so-fast/618041/Could get us in the stands faster than some folks think.
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Feb 20, 2021 8:31:22 GMT -5
The NY Times today has an interactive graphic on when the U.S. might reach herd immunity. www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/02/20/us/us-herd-immunity-covid.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=HomepageThe NYT's model has the U.S. at 40 percent of herd immunity as of February 16th. The Hopkins doctor asserts, without evidence because of inferior serological testing, that the U.S. is already near 70 percent of herd immunity, because many more people were infected by the virus than is realized. He is pretty much alone in this view, perhaps in large part because there is no ability to prove his predicate of 'if only a better serological test was used'. The number of cases and the number of individuals who have received at least one shot totals about 70 million as of Friday. That's 25 percent of the adult population, ages 18 and over. Of the 42 million vaccinated, nearly all are over 18. STAT, the health and medical news website owned by the Boston Globe asked epidemiologists and public health experts to explain why new cases are dropping so sharply. The reasons offered are similar to those listed in the Atlantic article; each explanation has its own supporters. Massachusetts issues a weekly public health COVID report, one section of which summarizes the results of contact tracing for the most recent four week period. Of 11,978 clusters of new cases identified between Jan 17th and Feb 13th, 11,645 were household clusters. or 97.2 percent. The next highest cluster count was 95, for child care. Families, not co-workers, not friends, are the primary source of spread in Massachusetts at this time.
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Feb 21, 2021 12:00:13 GMT -5
With respect to fans in the stands for spring sports. HC is going on a six day break over Easter. After Easter, the campus alert level will be raised to orange. All students must be tested on the Monday and Tuesday after Easter. Presumably, all students will also be tested later that week. If there are very few positives, then I expect the campus alert level to be lowered to yellow (where it is now). An alert level of yellow potentially allows fans in the stands.
I expect student-athletes participating in sports being competed during the spring will remain in Worcester. Other students are strongly encouraged to remain in the Worcester area during this Easter break, but are not being compelled to do so. The strong possibility that students will travel beyond the immediate area is the reason for raising the alert level.
In the week ending February 19th, there were six student positives, five of those students reside off-campus.
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Post by thecrossisback on Feb 21, 2021 14:27:17 GMT -5
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Post by hc2020 on Feb 21, 2021 14:40:49 GMT -5
Someday, common sense will play into this decision-making process (maybe).
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joshua1
Climbing Mt. St. James
Posts: 94
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Post by joshua1 on Feb 21, 2021 15:26:16 GMT -5
I believe fans will be back in the stands for football in the fall and maybe hopefully for a couple of games this spring
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