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Post by hchoops on Apr 29, 2021 11:06:11 GMT -5
The combined ERA of the five pitchers who have opposed Jake this season—4.85. Their 5 starts this season vs Jake—1.57 Who woulda thunk it !
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Post by possum on Apr 29, 2021 13:55:00 GMT -5
Luckily for DeGrom with advanced analytics wins are no longer the be all end all for judging pitchers. Watching the Mets the last two nights their offense looks pathetic and Lindor in particular looks nothing like the guy who played for the Indians. Wonder if he's feeling the pressure of trying to live up to his massive contract.
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Post by WCHC Sports on Apr 29, 2021 14:09:09 GMT -5
It's not an exact match of total games played, but the Mets are by far the lowest-scoring team in MLB. This Yanks fan can't gloat... our offense is pretty weak too.
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Post by hchoops on Apr 29, 2021 14:22:58 GMT -5
Luckily for DeGrom with advanced analytics wins are no longer the be all end all for judging pitchers. Watching the Mets the last two nights their offense looks pathetic and Lindor in particular looks nothing like the guy who played for the Indians. Wonder if he's feeling the pressure of trying to live up to his massive contract. Lindor had frequently gotten off to bad starts, especially in his best seasons (He says, desperately, from the ledge)
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Post by Tom on Apr 29, 2021 14:49:03 GMT -5
Luckily for DeGrom with advanced analytics wins are no longer the be all end all for judging pitchers. Watching the Mets the last two nights their offense looks pathetic and Lindor in particular looks nothing like the guy who played for the Indians. Wonder if he's feeling the pressure of trying to live up to his massive contract. I always thought ERA was a better measure than wins just for cases like DeGrom. On the other hand, I remember Bob Welch winning a Cy Young award with a bunch of wins on a very good Athletics team in spite of the fact he was not in the top 5 in ERA. K, or WIP. Further research says not in top 10 in WAR
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MLB 2021
May 1, 2021 13:08:58 GMT -5
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Post by nycrusader2010 on May 1, 2021 13:08:58 GMT -5
Luckily for DeGrom with advanced analytics wins are no longer the be all end all for judging pitchers. Watching the Mets the last two nights their offense looks pathetic and Lindor in particular looks nothing like the guy who played for the Indians. Wonder if he's feeling the pressure of trying to live up to his massive contract. I always thought ERA was a better measure than wins just for cases like DeGrom. On the other hand, I remember Bob Welch winning a Cy Young award with a bunch of wins on a very good Athletics team in spite of the fact he was not in the top 5 in ERA. K, or WIP. Further research says not in top 10 in WAR He won an absurd amount of games though I think. I want to say 27. Dont think anyone has won more than 25 since. Smoltz won 24 for the 1996 Braves. And someone mkre recent hit that number IIRC. Brandon Webb?
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Post by possum on May 1, 2021 17:25:26 GMT -5
Yeah Welch won 27 games but with the new analytics there is no way he would have won the Cy Young today. Clemens was 20-6 with an ERA a full run lower than Welch, he would win today and probably should have won in 1990.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on May 26, 2021 0:17:44 GMT -5
Further to Jacob Degrom and the futility he must feel. The season is 25% over and he's pitched just 6 times (not since May 9) and is 3-2 with a ludicrous 0.68 ERA. The Mets have scored 17 runs in those 6 games. Compare to certain HOFer Clayton Kershaw who has pitched 10 games and is 6-3 with a 3.18 ERA. The Dodgers scored 52 runs in those 10 games including a 9-6 win for him when he gave up 5 runs in 6 innings.
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Post by WorcesterGray on May 26, 2021 8:08:14 GMT -5
Further to Jacob Degrom and the futility he must feel. The season is 25% over and he's pitched just 6 times (not since May 9) and is 3-2 with a ludicrous 0.68 ERA. The Mets have scored 17 runs in those 6 games. Compare to certain HOFer Clayton Kershaw who has pitched 10 games and is 6-3 with a 3.18 ERA. The Dodgers scored 52 runs in those 10 games including a 9-6 win for him when he gave up 5 runs in 6 innings. Run support fluctuates from year to year, but tends to regress to the mean over the course of careers. Kershaw's career RS/GS is 4.7, a couple notches above the MLB average of 4.5. DeGrom's is 4.2, a couple notches below.
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Post by hchoops on May 26, 2021 8:36:56 GMT -5
Thanks, but I would guess that Jake’s support has been much less in his last three + seasons when he has been dominant. This is why he has so few wins and so many no decisions despite his 2 Cy Youngs and minuscule ERA. He is also hitting .470 with a 1.000 OPS, with limited at bats of course.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on May 26, 2021 8:39:25 GMT -5
Baseball-Reference has great stats on each game for a pitcher. I'll check DeGrom's run support stats for recent years and report back.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on May 26, 2021 10:05:37 GMT -5
I started checking game by game in the pitcher's logs then saw that Baseball-Reference has already laid out the numbers. It's my belief, and I'll bet all would agree, that "average run support" is not the best measure as, for example, I'd rather have 5 runs of support in each of five games (25 total) then run support of 2, 2, 3, 3, 16 (26 total). Let's compare Jacob DeGrom and his Mets with the great Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers over the last 4 seasons
Games Started DeGrom= 83 Kershaw= 75
W-L DeGrom= 28-21 he got a decision in only 59% of his games started Kershaw= 38-15 he got a decision in 71% of his games started
Run Support--NOTE: Can't tell whether the runs were scored while our guys were pitching or when relievers were in
Team's Runs Scored = # of Games for DeGrom/Kershaw
0= 8/1 The Mets were shut out in 8 games DeGrom started; the Dodgers failed to score in 1 of Kershaw's starts
1= 9/7 2= 7/8
3= 17/8 4= 11/8
5= 8/8 6= 10/6
7=1/6 8=6/5
9=0/10 10+= 6/8
Let's out the games in groups and see what percentage they represent of DeGrom's and Kershaw's starts. I've bolded where there are real differences
Your team scores 0 runs= Impossible to win 10%/1% In 10% of DeGrom's games the Mets failed to score , In 1% of Kershaw's games the Dodgers were shut out
Your team scores 1 or 2 runs= requires Cy Young type performance to have a chance to win 19%/20%
3 or 4 runs= requires a strong pitching performance to win 34%/21%
5 or 6 runs= with a journeyman performance you should win most of these games 22%/19%
7 or 8 runs= you should win 85% of these games 8%/15%
9+ runs= you should win 95% of these games 7%/24%
It's pretty easy to conclude that, at least when compared to the Dodgers and Kershaw, the Mets have given Jacob DeGrom pathetic run support in his starts.
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Post by WorcesterGray on May 26, 2021 10:14:22 GMT -5
Thanks, but I would guess that Jake’s support has been much less in his last three + seasons when he has been dominant. No need to guess - like Casey said, you could look it up.. In 2020, DeGrom got about 6.3 RS/G, much higher than average. In 2019, he got 4.1, a little less than average.
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MLB 2021
May 26, 2021 11:42:15 GMT -5
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Post by hchoops on May 26, 2021 11:42:15 GMT -5
I started checking game by game in the pitcher's logs then saw that Baseball-Reference has already laid out the numbers. It's my belief, and I'll bet all would agree, that "average run support" is not the best measure as, for example, I'd rather have 5 runs of support in each of five games (25 total) then run support of 2, 2, 3, 3, 16 (26 total). Let's compare Jacob DeGrom and his Mets with the great Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers over the last 4 seasons Games Started DeGrom= 83 Kershaw= 75
W-L DeGrom= 28-21 he got a decision in only 59% of his games started Kershaw= 38-15 he got a decision in 71% of his games started
Run Support--NOTE: Can't tell whether the runs were scored while our guys were pitching or when relievers were in
Team's Runs Scored = # of Games for DeGrom/Kershaw
0= 8/1 The Mets were shut out in 8 games DeGrom started; the Dodgers failed to score in 1 of Kershaw's starts
1= 9/7 2= 7/8
3= 17/8 4= 11/8
5= 8/8 6= 10/6
7=1/6 8=6/5
9=0/10 10+= 6/8
Let's out the games in groups and see what percentage they represent of DeGrom's and Kershaw's starts. I've bolded where there are real differences
Your team scores 0 runs= Impossible to win 10%/1% In 10% of DeGrom's games the Mets failed to score , In 1% of Kershaw's games the Dodgers were shut out
Your team scores 1 or 2 runs= requires Cy Young type performance to have a chance to win 19%/20%
3 or 4 runs= requires a strong pitching performance to win 34%/21%
5 or 6 runs= with a journeyman performance you should win most of these games 22%/19%
7 or 8 runs= you should win 85% of these games 8%/15%
9+ runs= you should win 95% of these games 7%/24%
It's pretty easy to conclude that, at least when compared to the Dodgers and Kershaw, the Mets have given Jacob DeGrom pathetic run support in his starts.Thanks for the work, Ky It confirms my eye test as I have watched most of Jake’s starts and cursed out the so called hitters
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MLB 2021
May 26, 2021 20:53:04 GMT -5
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Post by HC92 on May 26, 2021 20:53:04 GMT -5
DeGrom has an opt-out after 2022. If he gets to the end of next season without an extension, he’s almost guaranteed to opt out at that point when he’ll be 34. That’s a weird age to be negotiating a long term deal for a pitcher. But, if he’s as good next year as he has been so far this year and stays healthy, someone will give him a 6-year deal at $40M per year that ends when he’s 40.
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Post by hchoops on May 26, 2021 21:42:48 GMT -5
The Mets will sign him to an extension by the end of 2022.
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Post by alum on Jun 11, 2021 9:39:08 GMT -5
Since we have made Jacob DeGrom the focus of this thread, here is a piece from this morning: www.mlb.com/news/jacob-degrom-2021-era-and-stats-tracker?partnerId=zh-20210611-421925-MLB-1-A&qid=1026&utm_id=zh-20210611-421925-MLB-1-A&bt_ee=HZZ6noA%2FjBQMEYxVGbEMZBmMMTeQeSP1PS9sjXD3h1OLX61eJT7FK8S4K%2BxHd52z&bt_ts=1623420886980His 0.62 ERA is the lowest through nine games of everyone but Red Sox pitcher Dutch Leonard in 1914. Other numbers include
0.57 WHIP is the lowest by any pitcher in his first nine starts of a season since the mound was moved to its current distance in 1893, according to the Elias Sports Bureau (min 40 IP).
He's allowed one or no earned runs and gone at least five innings in nine straight starts, tied for the second-longest single-season streak since earned runs have been official. That record belongs to Gibson in '68, of course, at 11 straight. (Note: Kevin Gausman is also currently on an active, nine-start such streak)
He has 93 strikeouts and has allowed just 25 hits this season. The only other pitcher with a nine-game span with at least 90 strikeouts and 25 or fewer hits allowed in a single season since at least 1901 is Johan Santana, with two overlapping such spans in 2004.
He’s allowed just four earned runs in this nine-start span, along with those 93 strikeouts. The only other pitcher with at least 90 strikeouts and fewer than five earned runs allowed in a nine-start span since 1913 is Chris Sale, in two overlapping spans in 2018.
And that .128 batting average he’s allowed? It’s the second-lowest for any pitcher in his first nine starts of a season since at least 1901 (min. 40 IP), behind only 1955 Bob Turley’s .124.
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Post by hchoops on Jun 11, 2021 10:42:01 GMT -5
And his ERA+ This season which takes ballparks into consideration is over .600. League average is .100. The highest (best) recorded is Pedro at around .200. Throwing against the Padres tonight before around 23,000.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jun 11, 2021 11:31:18 GMT -5
Here's an arcane tidbit, a stat I will guarantee that no previous player has ever achieved: his batting average is 3X that of the batters he has faced : .391 for him versus, as noted above, .128 for his opponents (victims?). He has had 9 hits to their 25.
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MLB 2021
Jun 11, 2021 11:50:12 GMT -5
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Post by hchoops on Jun 11, 2021 11:50:12 GMT -5
With 3 RBIs
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Post by timholycross on Jun 11, 2021 11:51:12 GMT -5
My gold standards are one or two Koufax seasons and the ones turned in by Bob Gibson and Luis Tiant in 1968. That was, as HC87 would say, the year of the pitchah; and resulted in some rule changes for 1969, including lowering the mound (I still think averages, etc., went up in 1969 more to MLB expanding by 20% than anything else)
Unfair in this day and age to downgrade deGrom for what I'm sure will be less starts, less innings and less complete games. But ERA, WHIP, and a few others are certainly comparable and he's ahead on them at this point.
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Post by possum on Jun 11, 2021 13:19:39 GMT -5
Pedro Martinez in 2000 has to be in the gold standard category. 1.74 ERA when the average ERA that year was an all time high 4.76. He was 2 runs lower than any other AL pitcher. By comparison, in Koufax best two years 1964 and 1966 with ERA's of 1.73 and 1.74 the average ERA's were 3.58 and 3.52. In 1968, Gibson's ERA of 1.12 and Tiant's 1.60 were against an average ERA of an all time low 2.98.
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MLB 2021
Jun 11, 2021 16:23:07 GMT -5
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Post by hchoops on Jun 11, 2021 16:23:07 GMT -5
That is why Pedro’s year has the best ERA+
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Post by hchoops on Jun 12, 2021 7:57:33 GMT -5
Jake last night vs the Padres 6 ip- 0 runs, 1 single, 0 walks, 10 Ks ERA- 0.56 AB- 1-2, 2 RBIs Ave. .400 He has more RBIs,5, than earned runs allowed,4.
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Post by WorcesterGray on Jun 12, 2021 8:40:35 GMT -5
deGrom came out early due to concerns about possible flexor tendon issue. May or may not be significant, but he's thirty-three and has been flirting with the DL a few times now. Other than Koufax, an interesting comp for deGrom's peak performance and dominance is Smoky Joe Wood, 1911-1915 (93-35, 156 ERA+). Finished as a pitcher at age twenty-five, he had a solid second act as an OF for the Indians, 1918-1922, averaging ~350 PA, .298/.376/.433, 116 OPS+. www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/woodjo02.shtml
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