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Post by mm67 on Jun 8, 2021 16:00:52 GMT -5
Simply put: Bayesian: Great Expectations?
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Post by hcpride on Jun 8, 2021 16:05:17 GMT -5
I'm shooting the messengers. The two authors of the WSJ opinion piece are Robert Muller, a physicist by training and reputation, who has become a climate activist and energy expert. He has no background in biology. He did opine in an MIT Technology Review commentary years ago that the anthrax attacks post 9-11 were directed by OBL, and carried out by AQ adherents... As for Steven Quay, he is a physician, a pathologist, specializing in the pathology of breast cancer, particularly in men, apparently. His proof that the coronavirus arose in a Wuhan lab is based on a Bayesian analysis. See: zenodo.org/record/4642956#.YL-y-flKi6l /\ On the substance, they remake one of the points that Nicholas Wade made in his influential piece - in this case regarding the double CGG codon. (Wade saw it as suggestive of lab work - David Baltimore seemed to agree.) Apparently it is a series frequently used in lab work but not seen in nature. Would seem an easy matter for 'expert' virologists to push back on. So far, not so much. The current administration really doesn't seem to be buying China's story: U.S. Gets Crucial EU Support for New Study Into Covid’s Origins : The U.S. and the European Union are set to back a renewed push into investigating the origins of Covid-19 after conflicting assessments about where the outbreak started, according to a document seen by Bloomberg News.
In a draft statement the countries hope to adopt at a summit later this month, they “call for progress on a transparent, evidence-based, and expert-led WHO-convened phase 2 study on the origins of COVID-19, that is free from interference.” www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-08/u-s-eu-set-to-back-fresh-study-into-origins-of-covid-19
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Post by ndgradbuthcfan on Jun 8, 2021 16:34:37 GMT -5
This back and forth reached ad nauseam territory a while back.
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Post by timholycross on Jun 9, 2021 13:20:17 GMT -5
This back and forth reached ad nauseam territory a while back. Time this thread was laid to rest.
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Post by Tom on Jun 10, 2021 9:21:06 GMT -5
Random thing I gleaned from the news last night: The Indian variant is now called the Delta variant. I'm guessing the UK variant will be renamed the Alpha variant and so on
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Post by timholycross on Jun 10, 2021 12:34:48 GMT -5
Random thing I gleaned from the news last night: The Indian variant is now called the Delta variant. I'm guessing the UK variant will be renamed the Alpha variant and so on My town has many Indians; no rumors of any of them getting any slack due to the variant name. Same for Brazilians here and many more in nearby Framingham.
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Post by Chu Chu on Jun 11, 2021 12:35:42 GMT -5
Random thing I gleaned from the news last night: The Indian variant is now called the Delta variant. I'm guessing the UK variant will be renamed the Alpha variant and so on My town has many Indians; no rumors of any of them getting any slack due to the variant name. Same for Brazilians here and many more in nearby Framingham. The difference being, we do not have our country's chief executive endlessly blabbering about the Hindu virus, etc., and thereby creating cover for others to voice their predjudices.
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Jun 13, 2021 9:50:03 GMT -5
This is a link to a description of the recently introduced naming system for the most important variants. It should not be behind a paywall. www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/health/coronavirus-variant-tracker.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=ArticleFor the classics majors, they are up to Kappa in the Greek alphabet. Many, many variants have not yet received a Greek Letter. For example, the R.1 variant found in Kentucky and Japan. The B. 1. 617 variant (first found in India) does not have a Greek latter. Of its three derivatives, B.1.617.1 is now called Kappa, B.1.617.2 is now called Delta, and B.1.617.3 does not have a Greek letter. The Delta variant was previously called the Indian variant. B.1.617.3 was detected before B.1.617.1 and B.1.617.2. Confused? The R.1 variant now threatens the Olympics in Japan. www.news-medical.net/news/20210520/Tokyo-sees-rapid-rise-of-SARS-CoV-2-R1-lineage.aspxThe master list of COVID variants can be found here cov-lineages.org/lineage_description_list.htmlThis is exhausting even to glance through. It does reveal, however, how widespread the virus was in January 2020. For example, the Thai lineage begins with a variant identified in Thailand on January 23, 2020, and which spread to other countries, and was 'extinct' by the end of March 2020. cov-lineages.org/lineages/lineage_A.6.htmlA-17 variant is the root variant of the French lineage. Identified on Jan 25, 2020, it then apparently traveled to China and the United States.
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Post by timholycross on Jun 14, 2021 11:14:32 GMT -5
Why on earth does a civilized country like Japan only have, what I've heard; was 10% of the population fully vaccinated?
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Jun 14, 2021 16:20:38 GMT -5
Why on earth does a civilized country like Japan only have, what I've heard; was 10% of the population fully vaccinated? The U.S. has administered 307 million doses. Japan about 21 million. Many countries in Asia have low vaccination rates. This may reflect a mis-guided belief that their early success at keeping the virus at bay would continue. So they weren't early in line buying doses from manufacturers. And they possibly didn't factor in that variants would become increasingly infectious. And now they're stuck. One thing the Trump Administration did right was to place big bets on nearly every horse in the vaccine race. Two of the bets paid off big -- on the scale of a Trifecta win -- others did not. J&J's vaccine was compromised by grossly negligent manufacturing at a Baltimore plant. (All J&J doses being used in the U.S. came from Europe.) Merck flamed out. AstraZenica has not applied for an emergency use authorization, and won't. Novavax announced very good results today, but the U.S. doesn't need the vaccine, and will send the doses elsewhere. Vaccination across the U.S. is uneven. The six New England states are half of the 12 states that have already met the 70 percent of adults vaccinated with at least one shot by July 4th goal. On the other side of the coin, at their present rate of vaccination, Alabama and Mississippi will take more than a year to reach the 70 percent goal. Dollars to donuts there will be outbreaks this fall in the states with low vaccination rates.
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Post by mm67 on Jun 14, 2021 16:47:54 GMT -5
Why on earth does a civilized country like Japan only have, what I've heard; was 10% of the population fully vaccinated? The U.S. has administered 307 million doses. Japan about 21 million. Many countries in Asia have low vaccination rates. This may reflect a mis-guided belief that their early success at keeping the virus at bay would continue. So they weren't early in line buying doses from manufacturers. And they possibly didn't factor in that variants would become increasingly infectious. And now they're stuck. One thing the Trump Administration did right was to place big bets on nearly every horse in the vaccine race. Two of the bets paid off big -- on the scale of a Trifecta win -- others did not. J&J's vaccine was compromised by grossly negligent manufacturing at a Baltimore plant. (All J&J doses being used in the U.S. came from Europe.) Merck flamed out. AstraZenica has not applied for an emergency use authorization, and won't. Novavax announced very good results today, but the U.S. doesn't need the vaccine, and will send the doses elsewhere. Vaccination across the U.S. is uneven. The six New England states are half of the 12 states that have already met the 70 percent of adults vaccinated with at least one shot by July 4th goal. On the other side of the coin, at their present rate of vaccination, Alabama and Mississippi will take more than a year to reach the 70 percent goal. Dollars to donuts there will be outbreaks this fall in the states with low vaccination rates. NYS at 69.9% (as per NYS Gov't.) with at least one shot will soon join New England. Apparently hot spots are beginning to flare up among the non-vaccinated in states with low rates of vaccinations - expected but very troubling and quite sad.
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Post by sader1970 on Jun 14, 2021 18:07:33 GMT -5
Not just troubling and sad- totally unnecessary. Willful ignorance?
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Jun 14, 2021 18:33:01 GMT -5
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Jun 14, 2021 20:19:56 GMT -5
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Post by sader1970 on Jun 14, 2021 20:26:26 GMT -5
Phreek, I suspect your post is one of the defenses of the indefensible that td feared. td, should we assume that you have not been vaccinated with no intention of doing so? You know, just in case we run into each other I'll know whether to just wave hello from a distance.
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Jun 14, 2021 20:36:40 GMT -5
Phreek, I suspect your post is one of the defenses of the indefensible that td feared. td, should we assume that you have not been vaccinated with no intention of doing so? You know, just in case we run into each other I'll know whether to just wave hello from a distance. The B10 study on athletes was published three weeks ago. 2.3 percent corresponds to 2300 cases per 100,000. Post-vaccination myocarditis among vaccinated adolescents is two cases per 100,000.
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Post by hchoops on Jun 14, 2021 20:47:52 GMT -5
Vermont becomes the first state with an 80% vaccination rate
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Post by longsuffering on Jun 14, 2021 21:19:53 GMT -5
Vermont becomes the first state with an 80% vaccination rate Everything about Vermont is cool imo.
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Jun 15, 2021 6:49:19 GMT -5
mailchi.mp/statnews/tk-tncyc6de8v-609098?e=eea693c136Bit of apples and oranges in the quoted text, ergo, sloppy writing/editing. The July 4th goal is for adults 18 and older, not those currently eligible, which is ages 12 and above. When the goal was set, those between 12 and 17 were not eligible to be vaccinated.
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Post by WCHC Sports on Jun 15, 2021 13:18:20 GMT -5
td, I wonder if you order out for pizza.
Sure, virtually every pizza in history was safe to eat, and continues to be so. And even though there are some very public examples of pizza making people very sick, Michael Jordan WAS able to have that huge playoff game while feeling the literal ill effects of tainted pizza. But when you go to the pizza parlor and order your pie, do you mandate that the pie be taste tested? Do you require it to go through rounds of medical testing, placebo double-blind trials, and peer review before you go for the pepperoni? This isn't some new radical science like, say, the first heart transplant (HC alum seemed to have something integral to do with that too...). Vaccines have been around for centuries.
Schools have been mandating things like MMR, polio, and meningitis vaccines for a long time. The folks who thought it was contrary to ethics and religion have brought about resurgence in those terrible diseases in their populations/demographics. At what point can folks politely understand and accept something they disagree with for the greater good? Is that point in humanity now history?
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Jun 15, 2021 13:23:40 GMT -5
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Post by mm67 on Jun 15, 2021 13:41:59 GMT -5
Covid vaccines are Not classified as experimental by the FDA.
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Post by Tom on Jun 15, 2021 13:43:55 GMT -5
Schools have been mandating things like MMR, polio, and meningitis vaccines for a long time. In all fairness, weren't those vaccines approved by the FDA before schools mandated them? I can take exception with parents who won't let their kid get the polio shot. Although I might not come to the same conclusion, I can't come right out and say someone is wrong for not wanting a vaccine that the FDA hasn't approved. I assume there was a valid reason the approval procedures were put in place. A reasonable person could question why they should be required to ignore them now
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Post by alum on Jun 15, 2021 13:46:50 GMT -5
A good friend is a pharmacist at a chain grocery store and is authorized to administer vaccines for shingles and the flu, and now for Covid. She asks every customer she sees if they have received the Covid vaccine. She says that far too many have reacted by scoffing and saying they would never put that stuff in their body. Then she hands them the dozen different prescriptions that their family takes each day and sends them on their way.
This resistance to getting vaccinated has nothing to do with medicine and nothing to do with morality or free will and everything to do with some weird loyalty to the former guy (aka Individual #1) who should be taking victory laps for getting the vaccines approved for use on his watch.
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Post by WCHC Sports on Jun 15, 2021 13:48:45 GMT -5
All good points Tom, and certainly not wrong of you to mention. I suppose the respective good versus bad was weighed, as people were dying by the thousands (just over 600,000 today, or the equivalent of about two hundred 9/11s) the risk/reward skewed towards vaccination. The general technology and science stood on the accomplishments of prior, similar work, and there were some trials conducted to make sure that it didn't immediately harm all recipients.
We still take our shoes off at the airport and get full body scans for something that was 200 times less dangerous, relatively speaking...
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