Post by KY Crusader 75 on May 1, 2021 11:33:16 GMT -5
It is a glorious day in Louisville and it's always a blessing to get good weather when we welcome visitors to the city for the 147th Kentucky Derby. I think attendance is limited to something like 40,000 today instead of the normal 150,000so the atmosphere will be a bit different than a typical Derby but certainly more enjoyable than the last running in September.
Some thoughts 0n the race:
None of the runners have classic distance breeding but one of them must win so it's a matter of whose stamina breeding (none of them have run the !&1/4 mile Derby distance) and overall class is the best and, of course, who will get a good trip in the crowded field of 19 runners,
We have a heavy and deserving favorite in #14 Essential Quality. The champion 2YO has won all five of his races, the last four being Graded Stakes. He has not yet run a 100 Beyer Speed Figure but only one colt in the race has done that. He had a very fast "come-home time" of 36-1 for the final 5/16ths in the Blue Grass when he fought throughout the deep stretch and passed #17 Highly Motivated for the win. Tapit is the sire and that brings stamina although the dam was a sprinter. There are no dam-side foals for reference, a bit of a handicap.
#15 Rock Your World is a real wild card. He did not run as a 2 year old and his first two races, both decisive wins, were on the turf. Then he entered the Santa Anita Derby and blew away the field, Beyering 100, and winning on the lead by 4&1/2 lengths. He is a threat to win this on the lead.
Others to consider -runners who could win with a great trip or by a move forward in their development- are #1 Known Agenda, a top contender on breeding with Curlin as the sire and a dam who was a solid runner in her own right, As with EQ, there are no dam-side siblings to provide additional insights. He is a "stalker" who will race several lengths behind the front runners and look to pounce in the stretch. He won the Florida Derby by 2+ lengths. #6 O Besos merits consideration underneath, i.e. in trifectas or superfectas. #7 Mandaloun looked great winning the Risen Star and poor in finishing up the track in the Louisiana Derby. and I've included him in my Oaks/Turf/Derby pick three. #8 Medina Spirit has run four solid graded stakes races in a row. #9 Hot Rod Charlie is taking serious cash at 6-1 after winning the Louisiana Derby, at 1&3/16ths the longest Derby prep. #10 Midnight Bourbon finished second in the LA Derby and with Tiznow as the sire gets some stamina. He has very strong dam-side siblings including a winner of the Haskell. Don't overlook this one. Mike Smith is the rider and that's a plus. #17 Highly Motivated is another Into Mischief ($225,000 stud fee) foal . He finished second to EQ in that great Blue Grass duel but may have some distance limitations. #20 Bourbonic won the Wood Memorial and is bred to go the distance and I'll use him underneath.
The race
I expect #15 Rock Your World to go right to the lead and i believe it would be suicidal for anyone to challenge him. The pace should be solid but not blazing. He'll be followed by #8 Medina Spirit and #10 Midnight Bourbon, #17 Highly Motivated and #19 Soup and Sandwich. Then we'll see the mid-pack runners like #14 Essential Quality and # 9 Hot Rod Charlie among others. The deep closers will be very far back and hoping for a blistering pace that will wear down the front runners. The runners will go for a mile and then come around the clubhouse turn to encounter the longest stretch in the country at 1,235.56 feet. Then we'll see who has the stamina to get the job done. Essential Quality will try to wear down Rock Your World and then we'll see the closers passing the tiring runners and perhaps ultimately finishing in the money. I am betting that Essential Quality to prevail. I will use him and Rick Your World as "double keys" in trifectas and I hope to be alive to those two along with #1, #7, #10 in the horizontals.
Good luck to all!
Some thoughts 0n the race:
None of the runners have classic distance breeding but one of them must win so it's a matter of whose stamina breeding (none of them have run the !&1/4 mile Derby distance) and overall class is the best and, of course, who will get a good trip in the crowded field of 19 runners,
We have a heavy and deserving favorite in #14 Essential Quality. The champion 2YO has won all five of his races, the last four being Graded Stakes. He has not yet run a 100 Beyer Speed Figure but only one colt in the race has done that. He had a very fast "come-home time" of 36-1 for the final 5/16ths in the Blue Grass when he fought throughout the deep stretch and passed #17 Highly Motivated for the win. Tapit is the sire and that brings stamina although the dam was a sprinter. There are no dam-side foals for reference, a bit of a handicap.
#15 Rock Your World is a real wild card. He did not run as a 2 year old and his first two races, both decisive wins, were on the turf. Then he entered the Santa Anita Derby and blew away the field, Beyering 100, and winning on the lead by 4&1/2 lengths. He is a threat to win this on the lead.
Others to consider -runners who could win with a great trip or by a move forward in their development- are #1 Known Agenda, a top contender on breeding with Curlin as the sire and a dam who was a solid runner in her own right, As with EQ, there are no dam-side siblings to provide additional insights. He is a "stalker" who will race several lengths behind the front runners and look to pounce in the stretch. He won the Florida Derby by 2+ lengths. #6 O Besos merits consideration underneath, i.e. in trifectas or superfectas. #7 Mandaloun looked great winning the Risen Star and poor in finishing up the track in the Louisiana Derby. and I've included him in my Oaks/Turf/Derby pick three. #8 Medina Spirit has run four solid graded stakes races in a row. #9 Hot Rod Charlie is taking serious cash at 6-1 after winning the Louisiana Derby, at 1&3/16ths the longest Derby prep. #10 Midnight Bourbon finished second in the LA Derby and with Tiznow as the sire gets some stamina. He has very strong dam-side siblings including a winner of the Haskell. Don't overlook this one. Mike Smith is the rider and that's a plus. #17 Highly Motivated is another Into Mischief ($225,000 stud fee) foal . He finished second to EQ in that great Blue Grass duel but may have some distance limitations. #20 Bourbonic won the Wood Memorial and is bred to go the distance and I'll use him underneath.
The race
I expect #15 Rock Your World to go right to the lead and i believe it would be suicidal for anyone to challenge him. The pace should be solid but not blazing. He'll be followed by #8 Medina Spirit and #10 Midnight Bourbon, #17 Highly Motivated and #19 Soup and Sandwich. Then we'll see the mid-pack runners like #14 Essential Quality and # 9 Hot Rod Charlie among others. The deep closers will be very far back and hoping for a blistering pace that will wear down the front runners. The runners will go for a mile and then come around the clubhouse turn to encounter the longest stretch in the country at 1,235.56 feet. Then we'll see who has the stamina to get the job done. Essential Quality will try to wear down Rock Your World and then we'll see the closers passing the tiring runners and perhaps ultimately finishing in the money. I am betting that Essential Quality to prevail. I will use him and Rick Your World as "double keys" in trifectas and I hope to be alive to those two along with #1, #7, #10 in the horizontals.
Good luck to all!