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Post by bfoley82 on Jan 14, 2022 14:07:19 GMT -5
The basic protocol was for students to be tested twice a week, on Mondays and Wednesdays. Staff were generally to be tested on Fridays. The test is self-administered, and the test swabs deposited in a drop box in Hogan. The contents of the drop box are sent by courier to the Broad Institute in Cambridge for analysis, with results within 24 hours, often much sooner. Fully vaccinated staff (who are 96 percent of the staff) were to be tested once a week. Non vaccinated staff were to be tested twice a week on non-consecutive days. These tests are PCR tests, so there is no routine multiple testing as one might do with antigen tests. An exception would be when Broad, to speed up the analysis, is batch-testing 100 swabs at once. If a positive test was detected in the batch, then the 100 individuals whose swabs were part of the batch would be re-tested, with each swab analyzed separately to identify the person(s) with the positive test in the batch. I suspect Broad is not batch testing HC at this time because of low testing volumes and the high number of positives. I don't believe HC routinely re-tests an asymptomatic individual at the end of the isolation/quarantine period. However, that is not to say that an athlete, for example, might be re-tested more frequently to expedite a return to the active roster. There was a day last weekend when only one individual was tested, which may have been a test to expedite such a return. There is no double or triple counting of serial positive tests of the same individual. I suspect this is also true for non-serial positive tests. If someone tested positive in August 2021, and again in January, 2022, the individual is counted as a single positive case in the HC tally sheet.. Any hint of the range of symptoms of the positive testers? We would have heard of deaths but are the symptoms generally as light as a cold? Would we know of any staff or student hospitalizations? I'm getting word of vaccinated friends with cold like symptoms but no hospitalizations. The vaccines seem to be working. I would say it is a BAD cold and I am boosted about a little over a month ago. We will see if I get worse or better.
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Post by longsuffering on Jan 14, 2022 14:18:16 GMT -5
Any hint of the range of symptoms of the positive testers? We would have heard of deaths but are the symptoms generally as light as a cold? Would we know of any staff or student hospitalizations? I'm getting word of vaccinated friends with cold like symptoms but no hospitalizations. The vaccines seem to be working. I would say it is a BAD cold and I am boosted about a little over a month ago. We will see if I get worse or better. Stay warm during the upcoming cold snap/storm.
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Jan 14, 2022 17:08:57 GMT -5
New COVID infections in MA are cratering.
On January 8th, the seven day average of new daily cases was 22,946.
On January 13th, the seven day average was 11,293.
Just like the slope of the graph on my favorite (for the moment) chart.
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Post by hcpride on Jan 14, 2022 19:14:12 GMT -5
/\ Kind of cool (although not surprising) that the very rapid spread of Omicron means a very rapid production of naturally immunized folks. Meaning a pretty sharp drop off after a crest.
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Post by mm67 on Jan 14, 2022 20:38:07 GMT -5
I am not a scientist as evidently many are on this board. I read in the Times that the rapid decline of omicron may be due to human "behavior" & the "biology" of the fast moving virus. It simply may not have any place to go in the short time it has. Natural immunity to omicron is still under investigation and may or may not play a significant role. Leading scientists warned that it is too early to claim omicron is on the verge of becoming endemic. It is not the flu. There will be many more hospitalizations & deaths on the downward slope. It is understandable that after all the suffering, the sickness, the deaths & the disruption to our lives some might prematurely claim the end of this horrible pandemic is at hand. Good health to all.
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Post by longsuffering on Jan 14, 2022 22:20:59 GMT -5
In the last two years the virus has made a monkey's uncle out of all who have tried to tame it or pronounce it beat.
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Post by hcpride on Jan 15, 2022 5:43:27 GMT -5
Scientists are seeing signals that COVID-19′s alarming omicron wave may have peaked in Britain and is about to do the same in the U.S., at which point cases may start dropping off dramatically.
The reason: The variant has proved so wildly contagious that it may already be running out of people to infect, just a month and a half after it was first detected in South Africa.abcnews.go.com/amp/Technology/wireStory/omicron-headed-rapid-drop-britain-us-82218663No suggestion the media’s been right about Covid and no suggestion COVID’s exiting Planet Earth. Dropping off and vanishing mean different things. This (a virus/variant running out of fresh hosts) is an illustration of natural immunity at work. Of course 😱 there’s always this (from the same article): That's one plausible future, she said, but there is also the possibility of a new variant — one that is far worse than omicron — arising.
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Post by longsuffering on Jan 15, 2022 15:28:06 GMT -5
Omicron symptoms often described as like a bad cold. No immunity from future colds. It will be interesting to see how natural immunity from Omicron works and if it can nail enough fresh hosts to stay alive until immunity wears off from the first wave and it flares up again. It seems to shake off the current vaccine. But an Omicron specific vax is in the works.
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Post by bfoley82 on Jan 15, 2022 16:53:50 GMT -5
Omicron symptoms often described as like a bad cold. No immunity from future colds. It will be interesting to see how natural immunity from Omicron works and if it can nail enough fresh hosts to stay alive until immunity wears off from the first wave and it flares up again. It seems to shake off the current vaccine. But an Omicron specific vax is in the works. Like all the OTHER coronaviruses we think is a cold but is actually a coronavirus.
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Post by timholycross on Jan 16, 2022 8:43:55 GMT -5
Omicron symptoms often described as like a bad cold. No immunity from future colds. It will be interesting to see how natural immunity from Omicron works and if it can nail enough fresh hosts to stay alive until immunity wears off from the first wave and it flares up again. It seems to shake off the current vaccine. But an Omicron specific vax is in the works. ....which will be like the current flu shots...protect one from the flu variants that are known at the time of creation. And the years where the new variants are stronger, not so much. Worth getting for most of us, but some prefer to take their chances.
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Jan 18, 2022 18:56:49 GMT -5
In the seven days ending Jan 18th, 41 HC staff have tested positive. The number of staff positives since January 3rd is 96. HC has told students that it is making every effort to maintain critical services (which are not defined) given the high number of staff who must isolate.
Forty-two students have tested positive in the past seven days.
A total of 158 student and staff cases since January 3rd, and there are probably not more than 800 students and staff being tested during this timeframe. ========== For the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, the 7-day average of new cases on December 28 was 10,457. On Jan 8th, the 7-day average was 23,0037, which appears to be the peak. On Jan 17th, the 7-day average was 10,409.
In the nine days ending Jan 14th, there were 6,723 new cases in the City of Worcester.
From the city manager's Jan 14th report.
The Boston Globe had an article several days ago that UMass Memorial not only was postponing all elective surgery, but was postponing non-urgent surgeries, including some cancer surgeries, because of a shortage of beds. If I were a cancer patient whose surgery is postponed because an unvaccinated COVID patient is taking up a bed, I don't think I would be too happy.
As of January 12th, only 64 percent of Worcester's eligible population was fully vaccinated. 97 percent of HC students and 96 percent of HC staff are fully vaccinated.
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Post by mm67 on Jan 18, 2022 20:00:26 GMT -5
Pak, The numbers are staggering. The large numbers of infections are bound to increase the number of vaccinated who get infected & sick. This is so despite the far lower infection and illness rates among the vaccinated as compared to the unvaccinated. There is more virus in the air.The denominator has grown. It is simple math. Thanks for your report.
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Post by longsuffering on Jan 18, 2022 20:49:35 GMT -5
64% is indeed a staggeringly low percentage after all this time and access to vaccination.
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Jan 19, 2022 7:34:16 GMT -5
Pak, The numbers are staggering. The large numbers of infections are bound to increase the number of vaccinated who get infected & sick. This is so despite the far lower infection and illness rates among the vaccinated as compared to the unvaccinated. There is more virus in the air.The denominator has grown. It is simple math. Thanks for your report. This is from the Globe, from 10 days ago. Reading between the lines in the Worcester City Manager's weekly report, it would seem that the Fire Department is nearly fully vaccinated and does daily testing of the incoming shifts because the firehouses are, after all, communal places. The police department, looks to have a significantly lower vaccination rate, and doesn't daily test. Most police are out in the street for their shift, not in the police station. As for only 72 percent of the Worcester school department being fully vaccinated, that is a disappointingly and disturbingly low number. I hope the 28 percent who are not fully vaccinated are not clamoring for remote learning.
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Post by sader1970 on Jan 19, 2022 9:57:23 GMT -5
Now that's a silly statement! A more accurate statement might be that they are disciples of Rand Paul.
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Post by longsuffering on Jan 19, 2022 11:12:13 GMT -5
Now that's a silly statement! A more accurate statement might be that they are disciples of Rand Paul. They don't comb their hair either?
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Jan 19, 2022 11:31:03 GMT -5
Now that's a silly statement! A more accurate statement might be that they are disciples of Rand Paul. A certain senator from a certain state invariably opposed Federal disaster aid (as did his father, a former member of the U.S. House of Representatives from a hurricane-vulnerable area of the Lone star state), -- until a major natural disaster struck his state, as occurred very recently. And then the beseeching hand is out. --------------- Sloan Kettering has clinical trials underway to use mRNA to 'vaccinate' against pancreatic cancer (Fr. K's cancer, IIRC). If this novel approach proves to be effective in treating this truly nasty cancer, how many of the anti-vaxers opposed to mRNA COVID vaccines will, on principle, refuse treatment of this cancer (or other cancers) if they have the misfortune of being stricken? www.mskcc.org/news/can-mrna-vaccines-fight-pancreatic-cancer-msk-clinical-researchers-are-trying-find-out------------- Far, far, far more important than Google providing you with an email address or a search engine, or a video platform, is Google's work in Artificial Intelligence, and its support of computational biology. The link below is to an article in Nature on Google's DeepMind and DeepMind's unlocking the secrets of protein folding. The article reads like a promotional marketing brochure because what Google's DeepMind has done is so transformative from a biology, pharmacology, clinical treatment standpoint. IMHO, this is the Holy Grail. www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02025-4And sure as Hades, HC should start offering courses in computational biology, and, to the extent it doesn't already, courses in molecular biology. "Mr. McGuire: I want to say one word to you. Just one word. Benjamin: Yes, sir. Mr. McGuire: Are you listening? Benjamin: Yes, I am. Mr. McGuire: Plastics. Protein-folding"
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Post by bfoley82 on Jan 19, 2022 14:22:38 GMT -5
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Jan 19, 2022 15:41:41 GMT -5
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Post by hcpride on Jan 19, 2022 16:37:11 GMT -5
Apparently neither the full Covid vaccine, nor the Covid booster nor a second (!) Covid booster (if reports out from Israel are to be believed) prevent Covid Omicron infection and spread. JERUSALEM — Preliminary results from a small Israeli study examining the effects of a fourth coronavirus vaccine dose suggest that despite an increase in antibody levels, the additional dose a few months after a third shot may not do much more to prevent infection with the Omicron variant.
Prof. Gili Regev-Yochay, the director of the Infectious Disease Unit at Sheba Medical Center and the leader of the research, cautioned that the results were not yet peer-reviewed. But she said that there was no evidence of any risk from getting a fourth dose, and that she supported giving the shots to vulnerable people who might have some benefit from it.
www.nytimes.com/2022/01/18/world/middleeast/omicron-fourth-shot-israel.htmlFortunately, natural immunity will precipitate a crest and decline to the number of Covid Omicron cases and we have already seen that in many locales (here and abroad).
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Jan 20, 2022 16:43:40 GMT -5
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Post by hcpride on Jan 21, 2022 5:20:32 GMT -5
While not nearly as colorful as the sewage data illustrations of natural immunity at work, MA’s brand new data regarding hospitalization is certainly long overdue😉 and should (along with a de-emphasis on case counts) ratchet down Covid-alarmism: Nearly half of COVID-19 hospitalizations in Massachusetts are ‘incidental’ cases, new state data show…
New state data show 51 percent of COVID hospitalizations in Massachusetts on Tuesday were patients who were seriously ill from the virus, while 49 percent of patients were admitted for other reasons but happened to test positive upon admission.
The state launched its new method of reporting primary vs. incidental COVID-19 hospitalizations on Thursday, reporting that on Jan. 18, 1,624 people were in the hospital primarily because they were seriously sick with the virus while 1,563 patients had tested positive for COVID-19 while being hospitalized for other reasons. www.boston.com/news/coronavirus/2022/01/20/nearly-half-of-covid-19-hospitalizations-in-massachusetts-are-incidental-cases-new-state-data-show/?amp=1 MA population is about 6,900,000.
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Post by HC92 on Jan 21, 2022 6:04:55 GMT -5
It’s so sad that we’re two years into this and health care providers are just now starting to try to track the difference between primary Covid hospitalizations and incidental Covid hospitalizations. It’s also sad that the best Massachusetts can do after two years is look at how many patients are receiving a specific treatment and use that as a proxy for primary Covid. I suspect that overstates the number for primary Covid (hospitals will generally want to treat the Covid in hospitalized patients whether it’s primary or incidental) but it could also understate it (if patients are receiving other treatment for their Covid). Seems like someone (CDC?) should try to establish consistent standards for the data about hospitalizations and deaths “from” vs “with” Covid.
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Post by hcpride on Jan 21, 2022 7:24:44 GMT -5
/\ /\ Especially since many folks have have been pushing for this very obvious refinement in stats for almost two years. Kinda interesting it’s finally now😉. Not as though some emerging technology was needed to execute this. Ditto the very recently-de emphasized (not to mention wildly inaccurate) infection numbers we used to see constantly publicized.
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Post by hcpride on Jan 21, 2022 7:32:09 GMT -5
On the bright side on the Covid-restriction front: England’s removing two of the most damaging Covid restrictions, face-covering mandates and vaccine passports, on Thursday. www.bbc.com/news/uk-60047438 There have always questions regarding the efficacy of those two restrictions in terms of Covid spread and infection. Apparently, and this is very hard for some folks to acknowledge, Covid restrictions are very harmful on a number of fronts. This is notwithstanding the fact that England has averaged about 230 Covid -related deaths per day the last week.
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