bpob55
Crusader Century Club
Posts: 114
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Post by bpob55 on Sept 7, 2021 19:09:21 GMT -5
What is HC doing with the students who test positive? And for how long? A set period of time or they can return to regular activity after some number of negative tests? Or some combo of the two? 10 days away from campus either in an Auburn hotel or back home depending on how far students live from campus.
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Sept 8, 2021 6:46:48 GMT -5
What is HC doing with the students who test positive? And for how long? A set period of time or they can return to regular activity after some number of negative tests? Or some combo of the two? Loyola was set up as the isolation ward, however, with 30+ active cases, that number probably exceeds Loyola's capacity. Last school year, the college leased a hotel in downtown Worcester for the semester, and students were isolated there. See separate post in this thread of President Rougeau's email to students.
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Sept 8, 2021 6:47:32 GMT -5
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Post by lou on Sept 8, 2021 7:58:55 GMT -5
Thanks for posting
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Sept 8, 2021 9:00:16 GMT -5
The number of what HC considers to be active cases is currently 68.
61 cases recorded between August 28 and Sept 7. 7 cases recorded on Sept 8. Positive test rate is 1 percent for Sept 8.
Between Aug 10 and 27, there was one positive test.
Generally, ten days must pass before a case goes from active to recovered. There are three cases from August 28 and 29 still classified as active, and notionally beyond the ten-day window. This may be a data lag, as I assume these cases are fully vaccinated and should recover quickly.
HC has done 5500 tests in the past seven days. This will skew the reported data for the city of Worcester, which, in early August, was recording about 10,000 weekly tests for the entire city.
Provincetown's positivity rate peaked at 13 percent, post 4th of July celebration. It dropped to a tenth of that by the first week in August. Most of the celebrants were vaccinated.
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Post by timholycross on Sept 8, 2021 9:36:47 GMT -5
Does "Indoor Co-curricular Events" include anything athletic? Volleyball in terms of actual games; practices for some of the winter sports.
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Post by Tom on Sept 8, 2021 10:24:46 GMT -5
Nothing new. You must be vaccinated to attend an indoor event where there is food. You do not need to be be vaccinated to attend an outdoor event or an indoor event that has no food. From a sports aspect, it sounds like you'll need to be vaccinated to go to a basketball or hockey game. All other sports don't seem to be an issue As you note, BC just changed and a lot can happen between now and Sept 11.From a practical standpoint if you're thinking of things like soccer that don't require a ticket to get in, I'm not sure how the logistics would work in verifying vaccination status I'm a fortune teller! ! ! Just got an E-mail that proof of vaccination or negative test will be required for the football game on Saturday
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Sept 10, 2021 6:42:00 GMT -5
From David Leonhardt at the NY Times Over the seven days ending September 9, 64 HC students have tested positive. Assuming 3,000 students, that's a 2 percent infection rate over a week's time. Presumably all, or nearly all, of the infected students were fully vaccinated. What explains the disparity between the predicted risk and the actual risk?
Almost certainly the predicted risk is predicated on normal social intercourse. not rowdy partying with shouting, singing, kissy-face and the like.
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Post by mm67 on Sept 10, 2021 7:44:30 GMT -5
From David Leonhardt at the NY Times Over the seven days ending September 9, 64 HC students have tested positive. Assuming 3,000 students, that's a 2 percent infection rate over a week's time. Presumably all, or nearly all, of the infected students were fully vaccinated. What explains the disparity between the predicted risk and the actual risk? Almost certainly the predicted risk is predicated on normal social intercourse. not rowdy partying with shouting, singing, kissy-face and the like.
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Post by Tom on Sept 10, 2021 7:49:59 GMT -5
From David Leonhardt at the NY Times Over the seven days ending September 9, 64 HC students have tested positive. Assuming 3,000 students, that's a 2 percent infection rate over a week's time. Presumably all, or nearly all, of the infected students were fully vaccinated. What explains the disparity between the predicted risk and the actual risk? Almost certainly the predicted risk is predicated on normal social intercourse. not rowdy partying with shouting, singing, kissy-face and the like. Predicted risk in this model is probably based on real world data that does not give a complete story. Of the 4999 vaccinated Americans who did not test positive, were there any that had COVID but, thanks in part to their vaccination, had no symptoms so had no reason to get tested? Holy Cross students who feel perfectly fine are getting tested. An asymptomatic person would need a reason to get tested. I would expect a higher percentage of positive tests out of a sample where I test everyone versus a sample where I don't test everyone
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Sept 10, 2021 8:39:08 GMT -5
From David Leonhardt at the NY Times Over the seven days ending September 9, 64 HC students have tested positive. Assuming 3,000 students, that's a 2 percent infection rate over a week's time. Presumably all, or nearly all, of the infected students were fully vaccinated. What explains the disparity between the predicted risk and the actual risk? Almost certainly the predicted risk is predicated on normal social intercourse. not rowdy partying with shouting, singing, kissy-face and the like. Predicted risk in this model is probably based on real world data that does not give a complete story. Of the 4999 vaccinated Americans who did not test positive, were there any that had COVID but, thanks in part to their vaccination, had no symptoms so had no reason to get tested? Holy Cross students who feel perfectly fine are getting tested. An asymptomatic person would need a reason to get tested. I would expect a higher percentage of positive tests out of a sample where I test everyone versus a sample where I don't test everyone This is a very valid point. However, in my post, I did not reference data from other schools with vaccination rates (>95%) comparable to HC's and high frequency testing. At Tuft's Medford campus, for seven days ending September 8, 7,478 student tests, 11 positives. (HC, 7 days ending Sept 10, was 6,122 tests, 60 positives.) coronavirus.tufts.edu/testing-metricsAt WPI, 9,938 tests, 103 positives. (Much more comparable values to HC than Tufts. Must be frat parties!) www.wpi.edu/we-are-wpi/health-and-safety/dashboardI also looked at Colgate, but Colgate's testing volume is very low comparably.. Colgate's student positive test rate is 2 percent (same as HC). However, tor the seven days ending September 5th, the average daily test count was 225 (about a quarter of HC's frequency). Colgate's 2 percent positive rate is the number of positives / total campus population, not the total number of tests. www.colgate.edu/colgate-together/health-preparedness-and-analytics/health-analytics-dashboardInterestingly, WPI and Tufts report quarantine statistics, with virtually no students in quarantine. I believe HC is, for a practical matter, also not quarantining, only isolating the positive cases.
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Post by Ray on Sept 10, 2021 8:47:42 GMT -5
From David Leonhardt at the NY Times Over the seven days ending September 9, 64 HC students have tested positive. Assuming 3,000 students, that's a 2 percent infection rate over a week's time. Presumably all, or nearly all, of the infected students were fully vaccinated. What explains the disparity between the predicted risk and the actual risk?Almost certainly the predicted risk is predicated on normal social intercourse. not rowdy partying with shouting, singing, kissy-face and the like. Well for one thing, the entire campus population just traveled to campus from all over the world within the last couple of weeks. That certainly raised the risk level. I'd imagine the numbers are lower by the end of this month.
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Post by bfoley82 on Sept 10, 2021 11:21:23 GMT -5
Predicted risk in this model is probably based on real world data that does not give a complete story. Of the 4999 vaccinated Americans who did not test positive, were there any that had COVID but, thanks in part to their vaccination, had no symptoms so had no reason to get tested? Holy Cross students who feel perfectly fine are getting tested. An asymptomatic person would need a reason to get tested. I would expect a higher percentage of positive tests out of a sample where I test everyone versus a sample where I don't test everyone This is a very valid point. However, in my post, I did not reference data from other schools with vaccination rates (>95%) comparable to HC's and high frequency testing. At Tuft's Medford campus, for seven days ending September 8, 7,478 student tests, 11 positives. (HC, 7 days ending Sept 10, was 6,122 tests, 60 positives.) coronavirus.tufts.edu/testing-metricsAt WPI, 9,938 tests, 103 positives. (Much more comparable values to HC than Tufts. Must be frat parties!) www.wpi.edu/we-are-wpi/health-and-safety/dashboardI also looked at Colgate, but Colgate's testing volume is very low comparably.. Colgate's student positive test rate is 2 percent (same as HC). However, tor the seven days ending September 5th, the average daily test count was 225 (about a quarter of HC's frequency). Colgate's 2 percent positive rate is the number of positives / total campus population, not the total number of tests. www.colgate.edu/colgate-together/health-preparedness-and-analytics/health-analytics-dashboardInterestingly, WPI and Tufts report quarantine statistics, with virtually no students in quarantine. I believe HC is, for a practical matter, also not quarantining, only isolating the positive cases. Conn College just shifted to remote classes for ten days with about the same amount of cases rate as HC was having. www.boston.com/news/schools/2021/09/08/connecticut-college-shifts-to-remote-classes-amid-covid-19-outbreak/
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Sept 11, 2021 5:38:14 GMT -5
Over the five days Sept 6-10, there were 6,989 tests at HC. Peak day for positive tests this past week was Sept 7 with 14 student positives. This dropped to four on Sept 9 and three on Sept 10. Friday's positive test rate was 0.19%, compared to Tuesday's 1.1%. HC currently counts 78 active cases, which includes three cases from Aug 28-29. This probably means the Joyce Contemplative Center is also being used as isolation space. Assuming 2,900 fully vaccinated HC students in Worcester, the re-infection rate is 2.6 percent. Hopefully, the drop in positive cases on Thursday and Friday, when the entire student body was tested, signals a reduced risk of new infections occurring this weekend, --provided the socializing does not include many students from elsewhere. ------------------------- In another vaccine news, Moderna's vaccine is the most effective. www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/09/10/moderna-most-effective-covid-vaccine-studies/
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Post by alum on Sept 11, 2021 5:43:38 GMT -5
From David Leonhardt at the NY Times Over the seven days ending September 9, 64 HC students have tested positive. Assuming 3,000 students, that's a 2 percent infection rate over a week's time. Presumably all, or nearly all, of the infected students were fully vaccinated. What explains the disparity between the predicted risk and the actual risk?Almost certainly the predicted risk is predicated on normal social intercourse. not rowdy partying with shouting, singing, kissy-face and the like. Well for one thing, the entire campus population just traveled to campus from all over the world within the last couple of weeks. That certainly raised the risk level. I'd imagine the numbers are lower by the end of this month. Thats what happened both semesters last year at most schools
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Sept 11, 2021 6:17:09 GMT -5
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Post by longsuffering on Sept 12, 2021 13:21:42 GMT -5
Following the news about Covid it has been hard to nail down exactly how much of a benefit being outdoors is compared to indoors. I heard one commenter say twenty times safer, but I haven't heard of anything definitive from a medical journal study or anything.
Thanks to P.P. we have a chance to see if three hours of unmasked but vaccinated outdoor closeness in the student section has any significant effect on reported cases in the next week or so. The camera indicated the students were gathered close together for social reasons and not taking advantage of distancing options in the large stadium so that is good news in the sense that kids aren't living in fear of covid on campus.
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Post by timholycross on Sept 16, 2021 12:05:10 GMT -5
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Post by longsuffering on Sept 16, 2021 14:09:31 GMT -5
With 83 cases the law of averages says a few must be significant. I wonder if HC is hooking students up to a monoclonal antibodies drip as soon as they test positive or in the college age group do they wait to see if symptoms arrive? I haven't noticed anything about hospitalizations or deaths among HC students.
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Post by timholycross on Sept 16, 2021 14:52:52 GMT -5
With 83 cases the law of averages says a few must be significant. I wonder if HC is hooking students up to a monoclonal antibodies drip as soon as they test positive or in the college age group do they wait to see if symptoms arrive? I haven't noticed anything about hospitalizations or deaths among HC students. no way they hook anyone up to anything w/o significant symptoms....unless the student has one of the risk factors.
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Post by Ray on Sept 16, 2021 14:57:34 GMT -5
I would further add that "HC" isn't doing anything of the sort. I'm sure anyone with significant symptoms would be hospitalized, and treatment determined by the hospital, not by their college.
But, questioning the original logic, 83 cases among a young and nearly-fully-vaccinated population doesn't mean that the law of averages dictates there are significant cases in there. Hospitalizations among vaccinated 20-something year olds are a vanishingly small % likelihood. By way of comparison, just because their dashboard shows a few more data points: Northeastern has had >100 positive test results in the past 10 days, but they report zero hospitalizations: news.northeastern.edu/coronavirus/reopening/testing-dashboard/
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Sept 16, 2021 15:09:44 GMT -5
Between Sept 3 and 16 (14 days) there were 81 student positives, one staff positive, and one 'other' positive. Sept 16 totals are not final. The 83 active cases are all from this cohort.
Between Aug 28 and Sept 2, there were 11 student positives. Of a student population of about 3,000 (on-campus, and Worcester off-campus), about three percent (n=92) of a nearly fully vaccinated student body have tested positive. It appears all these eleven cases are classified as recovered.
Between Sept 5 and 8, there were 55 student positives. I assume the riot act was read by the Dean of Students. Between Set 12 and 16, 13 student positives, a marked improvement.
___________ Edited to add. The college reported last week that all positives were asymptomatic, or mildly symptomatic..
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Post by hcpride on Sept 16, 2021 15:31:54 GMT -5
Between Sept 3 and 16 (14 days) there were 81 student positives, one staff positive, and one 'other' positive. Sept 16 totals are not final. The 83 active cases are all from this cohort.
Between Aug 28 and Sept 2, there were 11 student positives. Of a student population of about 3,000 (on-campus, and Worcester off-campus), about three percent (n=92) of a nearly fully vaccinated student body have tested positive. It appears all these eleven cases are classified as recovered.
Between Sept 5 and 8, there were 55 student positives. I assume the riot act was read by the Dean of Students. Between Set 12 and 16, 13 student positives, a marked improvement.
___________ Edited to add. The college reported last week that all positives were asymptomatic, or mildly symptomatic.. Sounds like there was some Covid spread amongst the vaccinated students. Perhaps we’ll hear of some additional steps to protect the vaccinated from the vaccinated. Not so much that the vaccinated themselves will have serious complications but they could spread it (leading to more variants and infecting a vulnerable person). A public health issue .
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Post by hcpride on Sept 16, 2021 15:37:25 GMT -5
With 83 cases the law of averages says a few must be significant. I wonder if HC is hooking students up to a monoclonal antibodies drip as soon as they test positive or in the college age group do they wait to see if symptoms arrive? I haven't noticed anything about hospitalizations or deaths among HC students. no way they hook anyone up to anything w/o significant symptoms....unless the student has one of the risk factors. I don’t think he was serious.
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Post by longsuffering on Sept 16, 2021 18:04:26 GMT -5
no way they hook anyone up to anything w/o significant symptoms....unless the student has one of the risk factors. I don’t think he was serious. Actually I was serious, but I forgot HC students are all vaccinated because I have recently watched so many news reports of overcrowding at hospitals and lines to get hooked up to monoclonal antibodies drips among the unvaccinated in the South who test positive, I didn't consider what a huge difference the vax makes. Sorry about that.
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