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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Oct 18, 2021 14:06:27 GMT -5
In the pre-vaccine days, a Tier One player testing positive would have shut down the team for a few days. Holy Cross no longer quarantines close contacts of an infected individual. The strategy of extensive, frequent testing plus a very high vaccination rate seems to have prevented further infections, and there is no spread.
Oct 16-18, HC has performed 3,041 tests, all negative. There may be additional test results reported for today, so still to be determined if the student body made it through fall break without new infections. Frankly, I'll be surprised if there are no positive tests this week.
------ Colin Powell died today of complications from COVID. He was fully vaccinated. His age was a comorbidity, but he also had multiple myeloma, a disease which directly affects the immune system.
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Post by hcpride on Oct 18, 2021 14:07:59 GMT -5
It is worse. Turns out the science ‘experts’ now think J & J should have been a two-shot vaccine. Whoopsie! President Biden's chief medical adviser, Anthony Fauci, said on Sunday that the Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine likely should have been a two-dose shot instead of a single inoculation.
ABC's Martha Raddatz asked Fauci on "This Week" if the millions of Americans who received the Johnson & Johnson (J&J) COVID-19 vaccine should be concerned after a Food and Drug Administration (FDA) advisory committee voted unanimously to recommend adults receive a booster shot of the vaccine.
"No, not at all, Martha. I think that they should feel good about it because what the advisers to the FDA felt is that, given the data that they saw, very likely this should have been a two-dose vaccine to begin with," Fauci said. thehill.com/homenews/administration/577108-fauci-says-jj-vaccine-should-have-likely-been-two-dose-shotAre all those folks vaccinated via J&J (and with vax passports and vax cards) now kinda half-vaccinated? Or are those vax passports and vax cards some sort of symbolic Kabuki dance in any case? Potemkin Village? Bravo Sierra? No, not "Whoopsie!" Maybe this is new or unusual for you, but as a physician, I have long experienced that many vaccines over the years have had a changing schedule, or been supplanted by better versions. This occurs because we learn as experience is gained through actual use of the vaccine that cannot be obtained in any other way.
This is not a surprise and it is not a problem. It is just learning from experience. It saddens me to see it commented on in a snide and disrespectful way which could cause harm by causing readers of your words to get disillusioned for no good reason.Saddened or otherwise, I guess that is your way of saying that those who received the J&J vaccine were, in a sense, half-vaccinated. Notwithstanding vax cards and vax passports. Don’t take it personally, the world is full of errors due to lack of information. Some whoppers, some not.
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Post by hcpride on Oct 18, 2021 14:15:19 GMT -5
In the pre-vaccine days, a Tier One player testing positive would have shut down the team for a few days. Holy Cross no longer quarantines close contacts of an infected individual. The strategy of extensive, frequent testing plus a very high vaccination rate seems to have prevented further infections, and there is no spread. Oct 16-18, HC has performed 3,041 tests, all negative. There may be additional test results reported for today, so still to be determined if the student body made it through fall break without new infections. Frankly, I'll be surprised if there are no positive tests this week. ------ Colin Powell died today of complications from COVID. He was fully vaccinated. His age was a comorbidity, but he also had multiple myeloma, a disease which directly affects the immune system. If it is any consolation I think my high school had 6 staff members and 75ish kids test positive in the last two months. And that is without school testing so obviously there were many, many more infections. But the staff is under 60, reasonably healthy and vaccinated and the kids are, you know, kids. So, no school or team shut downs. I’d imagine HC will at some point exit the asymptomatic testing routine.
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Post by Tom on Oct 18, 2021 14:58:17 GMT -5
There is no mandate for a booster, at any level. ----------------------- One student tested positive on October 13. It was the first student positive since Sept. 25. The only students being tested last week were those on-campus during fall break, which began on Oct. 8th. It was reported that a member of the men's basketball team was not at the Hart Saturday as he was in the protocol. That member, fully vaccinated, resides in Massachusetts. Dollars to donuts he was not infected on-campus. HC decreased testing last week with fall break. As students are now back on-campus, testing this week should be in the range of 7,500 tests over a seven-day period. I think discretion is usually the best policy, but in this case, it's pretty clear who the player from Mass was as it was mentioned elsewhere that he wasn't at the event. Only two Mass kids on the team, anyway. I don't think anyone ever said a basketball player was infected. In fact, I heard just the opposite. The rumor I heard was that the basketball player in question was a close contact, but not a positive
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Post by Chu Chu on Oct 18, 2021 20:57:23 GMT -5
Saddened or otherwise, I guess that is your way of saying that those who received the J&J vaccine were, in a sense, half-vaccinated. Notwithstanding vax cards and vax passports. Don’t take it personally, the world is full of errors due to lack of information. Some whoppers, some not. No, they were not "half vaccinated"! There has been no error. Folks receiving the J7J vaccine have had excellent protection thus far that is only now showing signs of waning effectiveness after 6-8 months, although it is still providing good protection against serious complications and death, even at this point.
Under our system of regulation, the company making a vaccine undertakes the research that they present to the FDA for approval. J&J opted for a single dose vaccine trial, and the data presented clearly showed it was effective. That is why it was approved. NOW, we see the waning effectiveness and the need for augmentation.
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Oct 18, 2021 21:13:11 GMT -5
Saddened or otherwise, I guess that is your way of saying that those who received the J&J vaccine were, in a sense, half-vaccinated. Notwithstanding vax cards and vax passports. Don’t take it personally, the world is full of errors due to lack of information. Some whoppers, some not. No, they were not "half vaccinated"! There has been no error. Folks receiving the J7J vaccine have had excellent protection thus far that is only now showing signs of waning effectiveness after 6-8 months, although it is still providing good protection against serious complications and death, even at this point.
Under our system of regulation, the company making a vaccine undertakes the research that they present to the FDA for approval. J&J opted for a single dose vaccine trial, and the data presented clearly showed it was effective. That is why it was approved. NOW, we see the waning effectiveness and the need for augmentation.
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Post by timholycross on Oct 19, 2021 9:23:11 GMT -5
I spoke with a nurse in CT last week who said that some hospitals are seeing a surprising number of "break out" cases, vaccinated people testing positive for Covid. These are not just people testing positive but who are sick enough to be hospitalized, some of them relatively young (she mentioned one 40 year old). It's disconcerting when people get so shrill about vaccinated people still following precautions. I don't care what any of you decide to do- it's your choice and unless there's a sign saying "must wear a mask", it's my choice too.
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Oct 19, 2021 10:42:47 GMT -5
I think discretion is usually the best policy, but in this case, it's pretty clear who the player from Mass was as it was mentioned elsewhere that he wasn't at the event. Only two Mass kids on the team, anyway. I don't think anyone ever said a basketball player was infected. In fact, I heard just the opposite. The rumor I heard was that the basketball player in question was a close contact, but not a positive The phrasing used was "health and safety protocol". To my knowledge, HC is not presently quarantining students, i.e., close contacts of individuals who test positive. That is a major shift from the policy / practice in the 20-21 academic year. Students testing positive are isolated in Loyola. Exceptions exist for every rule of course. What follows below is getting into the weeds. The one student who tested positive last week did so on October 13. Holy Cross tested on Oct 9, the Friday on which Fall break commenced, with no positives. The last student positive was Sept 30. There was no testing on Oct 10-12. A reasonable presumption is that the student who tested positive on Oct 13, had returned home the weekend prior, and returned to campus after becoming infected. HC reported the results of 233 tests on Oct 14, and one test on Oct 15, all of which were negative. The one test reported on Oct 15 was probably a special test to determine if an individual was positive because of symptoms, or a close contact. Test results for 468 students were reported on Saturday the 16th, all negative. HC probably has not had a secondary infection, one student subsequently infecting another, since mid September.
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Post by Tom on Oct 19, 2021 11:08:39 GMT -5
True. But there is a difference between quarantining and not having the very close contact of boxing someone out unmasked during a basketball practice.
My interpretation of what I heard was that he wasn't practicing because of a close contact. It is possible that even if the school does not quarantine close contacts, the school might not permit those contacts to participate/practice in contact sports for a period of time.
---------
On a related note - last year there were tweets with photos and videos from practice and everyone was masked. None of the players were masked on Saturday
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Post by Chu Chu on Oct 19, 2021 14:25:10 GMT -5
Rising serpent does not appear to understand that as the situation has changed, the assessment and advice have changed. Reasonable people understand this very well. Zealous propagandists don't care to understand, but to inflame.
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Oct 24, 2021 9:49:17 GMT -5
COVID infections following fall break at Holy Cross. The Fall Break was for 10 days, ending October 18th when classes resumed. Between October 17 and 23rd, 8,828 tests were done at HC. There were five positive student tests, and three positive staff tests, for a positive test rate of 0.01 percent. That testing volume suggests some students were tested 3x, and every student was tested twice. I will note that I learned at the installation ceremony for Vince Rougeau, that Dr. Helen Boucher ’86 is the current vice-chair of the BoT. Fr. B., back at the beginning, stated the college’s response to COVID would be guided by Dr. Boucher, and a former chair of the BoT, Dr. Michael Collins, who is presently chancellor of the UMass Medical School. Why the Provincetown July 4th outbreak did not become a ‘super-spreader’ event. www.bostonglobe.com/2021/10/21/metro/new-study-reveals-why-provincetown-did-not-become-covid-superspreader/[bolding mine] The journal pre-print of the Provincetown study. www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.20.21265137v1.full-text[bolding mine] This study of the Provincetown outbreak validates, IMO, HC's approach of high vaccination levels and robust testing. China closed its wild animal markets one week before announcing the outbreak in Wuhan. www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/china-covid-bats-caves-hubei/2021/10/10/082eb8b6-1c32-11ec-bea8-308ea134594f_story.htmlBats found infected with coronaviruses nearly identical to the COVID-19 coronavirus.www.nytimes.com/2021/10/14/science/bat-coronaviruses-lab-leak.html?searchResultPosition=1^^^ This reflects gain-of-function occurring in the wild. Transmission from humans to animals www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2021/10/08/national-zoo-lion-covid-outbreak/And finally, they have developed COVID vaccines specifically for animals. From the WaPo
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Nov 4, 2021 17:29:50 GMT -5
With return to campus after the 10 day fall break that began Columbus Day weekend, HC re-initiated its intensive twice-a-week testing program. Five students tested positive between Oct 18th and 23rd; It there was any student-to-student spread post-return, it was very limited, i.e., one or two students, and, given the dates, they could readily have become infected before return to campus. The overall vaccination rate on campus is 95 percent; 96 percent of the students, 92 percent of the staff. Between Oct 24 and Nov 4, a period of 12 days, there was one student positive (Nov 4). It would seem that HC has achieved 'herd immunity', with its very high vaccination rate and robust testing program. The Rt, a measure of the rate that an infected person infects another, is probably 0. _______________ The R0 (R naught) value is an indicator of how fast an infection will spread in a community where individuals have no immunity (acquired or vaccinated) and no preventive or mitigating measures (e.g., quarantine, masks, social distancing) are taken. Some R0 values, and CFR ratesSpanish flu 1.8 [case fatality rate (CFR) in U.S. between 2 and 2.5 percent] Influenza <2 [CFR of 0.1 percent Smallpox 3 [unvaccinated CFR 30%; vaccinated, 3%] Polio 4-6 [unvaccinated, 0.5 percent become paralyzed: CFR, >0.1 percent] Mumps 10-12 [unvaccinated, CFR 1%] Chickenpox 10-12 [unvaccinated children, CFR 0.001%] Pertussis 15-17 [unvaccinated and <6 months of age, CFR 0.5%] Measles 16-18 For COVID-19, R0 values Wuhan original 2.5 European Jan 2020, between 2.5 and 3 Alpha (UK) variant 4.5 Delta (Indian) variant, between 6 and 7 (mid-range of estimates).
In Massachusetts, the CFR for the last week of October was about 1 percent. The CFR for vaccinated individuals was lower, but it is difficult to calculate as many deaths of vaccinated individuals are individuals with significant co-morbidities.
For example, an R0 of 3 would mean that 10 infected people will infect 30, those 30 will infect 90, those 90 will infect 270, those 270 will infect 810, those 810 will infect 2430. For COVID, in less than a month’s time, the infections would go from 10 to nearly 2,500 in a defined population, and grow exponentially thereafter.
Rt is the effective infection rate. This is the rate in the real world, where there is immunity and/or mitigating and preventive measures are being taken. If the Rt is above 1.0, the number of new infections is increasing. If it is below 1.0, the number of new infections is decreasing.
Massachusetts currently has a calculated Rt of 0.85, meaning the number of new infections is decreasing, and eventually, a pathogen should no longer poses a significant risk of infection. Significant risk is not no risk.
At a steady 0.85 Rt rate, 100 cases would further infect 85. The 85 would infect 72. The 72 would infect 61. The 61 would infect 52. The 52 would infect 44, and so on.
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Post by A Clock Tower Purple on Nov 4, 2021 20:45:45 GMT -5
Can sleep better having all this riveting info. Thanks...
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Post by sader1970 on Nov 4, 2021 20:53:15 GMT -5
You could always watch the PPAC webcam if you have insomnia problems.
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Post by A Clock Tower Purple on Nov 4, 2021 21:16:07 GMT -5
I'd rather get kicked in the nuts by a Bronco.
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Post by timholycross on Nov 4, 2021 23:25:50 GMT -5
So what is the plan at HC to drop the mask requirement which your stats seem to indicate are at this point window dressing?
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Nov 5, 2021 8:08:51 GMT -5
So what is the plan at HC to drop the mask requirement which your stats seem to indicate are at this point window dressing? From reading the protocols issued to students, the decision to fully unmask is not made unilaterally, and is affected (governed?) by the prevalence of COVID in the community, writ large. HC's dashboard tracks several metrics for Worcester. But at HC, there is no requirement to socially distance, nor, IIRC, are there capacity limits on indoor spaces. And athletes are practicing indoors without masks. I suspect there has been an informal relaxation of the mask policy indoors. When visitors are on-campus however, the mask policy prevails, except apparently for those who answer to a higher authority. In the most recent report, Worcester County has the second highest infection rate per 100,000 in the Commonwealth. Only 68 percent of percent of residents 12 and over in the city have had at least one shot, compared, for example, to 78 percent for Middlesex Co. In the city, the younger cohorts of vaccinated Blacks and Hispanics are in the 50s percent range. For Worcester County, a higher percentage of Hispanics (71 percent) have received at least one dose than have Whites. So go figure. Compare to Rockport, where 90 percent of residents 12 and over have received at least one shot. Massachusetts' positivity rate is about 1.8 percent, overall. The rate, when tests being done by colleges and universities are excluded, is about 3.3 percent. Colleges and universities appear to be doing 40 percent of the total testing state-wide, and generally, these institutions have very low positivity rates. (I don't believe public universities are testing to anywhere near the same extent as the private institutions.)
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bpob55
Crusader Century Club
Posts: 114
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Post by bpob55 on Nov 5, 2021 8:34:47 GMT -5
With herd immunity reached I wonder why they are testing so much. Tests can cost anywhere from $20-50 per test. For 6000 tests a week that adds up quickly. I would think there are better uses for this money. Especially with the mask mandate still in place.
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Post by newfieguy74 on Nov 5, 2021 9:05:39 GMT -5
With herd immunity reached I wonder why they are testing so much. Tests can cost anywhere from $20-50 per test. For 6000 tests a week that adds up quickly. I would think there are better uses for this money. Especially with the mask mandate still in place. You're assuming they've reached herd immunity. Maybe they have, I don't know. How would you quantify whether they have?
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Post by mm67 on Nov 5, 2021 10:03:15 GMT -5
Re: Herd Immunity. Does the fact that Worcester has low rates of vaccination & higher rates of infection factor into the decision by HC to continue testing? Hopefully, with higher rates of vaccinations, appropriate masking, distancing & the new game changing Pfizer/Moderna treatments we'll begin to see real improvement in various metrics of covid infections and more movement toward normalcy. Fingers are crossed.
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Post by A Clock Tower Purple on Nov 5, 2021 12:19:40 GMT -5
So what is the plan at HC to drop the mask requirement which your stats seem to indicate are at this point window dressing? Compare to Rockport, where 90 percent of residents 12 and over have received at least one shot. I can speak to this, as I live in Rockport. A good part behind the excellent percentage is a high percentage of seniors in town. Also I can't speak to other school districts, but the Rkpt public schools (all on one campus) have been excellent on education, prevention protocols, drive-thru clinics, and more. Also pooled testing for all grades is done weekly, with a over a 95% participation rate amongst students, and zero positives in the entire school system for the last 5 weeks.
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Nov 5, 2021 12:27:25 GMT -5
With herd immunity reached I wonder why they are testing so much. Tests can cost anywhere from $20-50 per test. For 6000 tests a week that adds up quickly. I would think there are better uses for this money. Especially with the mask mandate still in place. Even if they've reached herd immunity on Mt. St. James, Worcester has not, and there are hundreds of students living off-campus, many in apartments HC has leased .More staff (also highly vaccinated) tested positive in the past ten days than students: 3 staff, 1 student. _______________ In searching for the masking policy just now, I found this communication from a week ago.
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Nov 5, 2021 12:55:42 GMT -5
From a press release of the Department of Education, on funding eligibility for $36 billion in grants to higher education under the American Rescue Plan. There are other major eligibilities, particularly fin aid for students. See the intro below.
That's over $50 billion in total that the Federal government in COVID-related aid to colleges and universities. If divided equally, which it is not, that's an average of $10,000,000 per institution.
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Post by hcpride on Nov 5, 2021 15:52:11 GMT -5
With herd immunity reached I wonder why they are testing so much. Tests can cost anywhere from $20-50 per test. For 6000 tests a week that adds up quickly. I would think there are better uses for this money. Especially with the mask mandate still in place. Even if they've reached herd immunity on Mt. St. James, Worcester has not, and there are hundreds of students living off-campus, many in apartments HC has leased .More staff (also highly vaccinated) tested positive in the past ten days than students: 3 staff, 1 student. _______________ In searching for the masking policy just now, I found this communication from a week ago. So, not so much the vaccine that is preventing the spread, but rather the masking policy? (I think we all now realize that vaccinated folks tend to get and spread the virus with some regularity - so much for those vax passports a few locales adopted). One wonders, on a different front (pbob5's question), what is the metric for pulling the plug on the asymptomatic testing at a fully vaccinated and indoor masked campus? Understanding it is Covid time and logic is out the window but it would be comforting to know there is a rubric (and even more so to know what the rubric is).
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Post by mm67 on Nov 5, 2021 16:27:00 GMT -5
Logically, stupidity is in play in some quarters.
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