|
|
Post by KY Crusader 75 on Aug 16, 2021 19:37:02 GMT -5
It's time for our annual competition, I think all our fans are excited about the upcoming season as the Crusaders look to make it three PL Championships in a row. The QB situation may not be set, as far as we fans know, or Coach Chesney may have picked his guy out already, There are lots of intriguing scenarios there with the explosive Matt Sluka competing with some more traditional passers. Maybe we'll see multiple QB's taking snaps each game. I'm looking forward to seeing a healthy receiving corps this season and, of course, seeing Jacob Dobbs and the defense.
Here's who we play
Sept 4 @ Connecticut-- HC lost 20-27 in 2017 after getting off to a good start, UConn put in a new QB and rallied big-time
Sept 11 Vs Merrimack-- We have never played these Warriors. I checked the roster: Merrimack has 28 players from Maryland, a real oddity to me. Merrimack was 0-3 last year, outscored 36-71 in composite by Sacred Heart, Bryant, and LIU
Sept 18 @ Yale-- HC has decades of frustration vs the Elis and I can't bring myself to write our all-time W-L record. HC lost 10-23 @yale in 2019
Sept 25 @ Monmouth-- HC lost 27-44 @ Monmouth in a playoff game in 2019
Oct 2 vs Harvard-- Here's one rival we really love to beat. HC lost 21-31 @ Fitton in 2019
Oct 16 vs Georgetown-- HC won 24-0 in 2019 and many will remember Holy Cross scoring its biggest ever comeback victory in 2018
Oct 23 vs Colgate-- HC won 31-10 in 2019. Colgate's program seems to have declined in recent years
October 30 @ Lehigh-- HC won 20-3 last year
Nov 16 Vs Lafayette--HC lost 20-23 in 2019 , a real surprise to many of us
Nov 16 @ Fordham-- Holy Cross won 34-24 last year
Nov 20 @ Bucknell-- HC easily handled the Bison last year 33-10 to wrap up the PL championship
Looking forward to your predictions and your editorial commentary
|
|
|
|
Post by longsuffering on Aug 16, 2021 19:56:15 GMT -5
I chose 8-9. Capable of sweeping the PL, but hard not to have one off game. Winning against either UConn or Monmouth will be a dramatic statement.
|
|
|
|
Post by sader1970 on Aug 16, 2021 20:08:22 GMT -5
Sept 4 @ Connecticut-- Another close loss but chance for an upset win
Sept 11 Vs Merrimack-- Better win this one
Sept 18 @ Yale-- Guessing we'll be underdogs but time to avenge the loss that probably sunk TG at the Bowl with a win. As I posted after that game, our guys never got off the bus mentally.
Sept 25 @ Monmouth-- Unfortunately, I see this as another loss to them but it'll be closer than when we played them in the tournament. If it was at Fitton, we'd beat 'em
Oct 2 vs Harvard-- At home, this one's ours. Another satisfying win.
Oct 16 vs Georgetown-- At home. The better team as long as we don't look past them. Another win.
Oct 23 vs Colgate-- The showcase game at Polar Park. An opportunity to showcase the program to greater Worcester, A win.
October 30 @ Lehigh-- Sorry, Tom, maybe next year for you and your guys. Another Patriot League win.
Nov 16 Vs Lafayette-- We're on a roll and at home. A big win.
Nov 16 @ Fordham-- We've had our issues playing the Rams in the Bronx and they'll be tough but by this time the guys will be sniffing championship 3 in a row. A win.
Nov 20 @ Bucknell-- I went down there for my one and only trip to Bison-land the year we won the PL under TG but maybe we were looking past them but we lost that last game of the regular season. Not this time. Chesney won't allow it. Close out the regular season with another win.
So, put me down for a 9-2 regular season. Holding off on any predictions for post season until we've seen the product on the field; injuries; seeding; etc.
|
|
|
|
Post by KY Crusader 75 on Aug 16, 2021 21:52:41 GMT -5
I looked back on 2019 and here's our composite prediction:
10 or more= 0 posters
8-9= 10 posters
6-7= 29 posters
4-5= 6 posters
3 or fewer= 1 real pessimist
So we were spot on there (HC went 7-5 in regular season). Of course that combines the predictions of 6 or 7. Some posters (this is always preferred) provide editorial and oin down a single number. In looking quickly at the old thread I saw the following as predicting 7 wins: EFG72, hcpride, rgs318, KY Crusader 75, rickii.
I think in general we have done a good job in composite on our various sports predictions over the years
|
|
|
|
Post by hcpride on Aug 17, 2021 4:35:02 GMT -5
Monmouth and UConn are likely losses and I figure we’ll sweep Harvard/Yale. I do like the fact we play Yale in their first game after a very long layoff (for them) and Harvard at home. 9 wins is my prediction.
If it goes that way I don’t see a home playoff game in our future (not to get ahead of myself).
|
|
|
|
Post by hc6774 on Aug 17, 2021 6:41:44 GMT -5
I don't think we will sweep the league because all will be gunning for us... but we have to beat Fordham on the road to win the PLC
so 8 wins will be tough, 3-2 OOC with 2 home games is doable
I think our O needs to generate at least 3 scoring drives per game, because our D/ST will generate 2 ...field goals well be important
|
|
|
|
Post by HC92 on Aug 17, 2021 6:45:58 GMT -5
Give me 9 wins. We’ll split with UConn, Monmouth, Harvard and Yale and win the rest.
|
|
|
|
Post by alum on Aug 17, 2021 7:06:32 GMT -5
I think it is 8 wins. Beat UConn, lose to Monmouth. Beat Yale, lose to Harvard. Beat Merrimack. Annoyingly lose one PL game. We will win the league.
|
|
|
|
Post by rgs318 on Aug 17, 2021 7:26:19 GMT -5
I am going with a 9-2 regular season as well.
I see us with one loss to either Yale or Harvard (because I do not believe HC has ever beaten both in the same season.)
I see us getting an upset against either UConn or Monmouth. Monmouth ty[ically has MANY 5th year players since they use red shirts liberally so I'll pick that as the loss - although a close loss. The first half in our last encounter gives me hope that HC will pull off an upset to start the year.
We do always seem to lose one in the PL that is a thread scratcher - Lafayette in 2019 fit that role. BUT, I believe HC can be undefeated this year in PL play so I'll go with 6-0 in PL play..
(Thanks for the help with my mix-up!)
|
|
|
|
Post by thecrossisback on Aug 17, 2021 7:46:27 GMT -5
I think HC can get to 10 wins this year during the regular season.
Outside of a tough road game vs Fordham HC should role away with the PL title for the third year in a row.
|
|
|
|
Post by Ignutz on Aug 17, 2021 7:46:30 GMT -5
I am going with a 9-2 regular season as well. I see us with one loss to either Yale or Harvard (because I do not believe HC has ever beaten both in the same season.) I see us getting an upset against either UConn or Merrimack. Merrimack ty[ically has MANY 5th year players since they use red shirts liberally so I'll pick that as the loss - although a close loss. The first half in our last encounter gives me hope that HC will pull off an upset to start the year. We do always seem to lose one in the PL that is a thread scratcher - Lafayette in 2019 fit thatcrole. BUT, I believe HC can be undefeated this year in PL play so I'll go with 6-0 in PL play.. I think you're mixing up Merrimack with Monmouth. |
|
|
|
Post by hchoops on Aug 17, 2021 7:58:21 GMT -5
10
lose to Monmouth
Always the optimist in August.
|
|
|
|
Post by hc89 on Aug 17, 2021 11:31:04 GMT -5
7-4
UCONN L
MERRIMACK W
YALE L
MONMOUTH L
HARVARD W
GEORGETOWN W
COLGATE W
LEHIGH W
LAFAYETTE W
FORDHAM L
BUCKNELL W
|
|
|
|
Post by newfieguy74 on Aug 17, 2021 11:34:24 GMT -5
With 19 votes in there's a refreshing absence of abject pessimism.
|
|
|
|
Post by A Clock Tower Purple on Aug 17, 2021 11:41:41 GMT -5
7
|
|
|
|
Post by midwestsader05 on Aug 17, 2021 12:24:51 GMT -5
I’m going to wait to put my “official” vote in as I’ve been a part of too many teams (HS and College) that sustained so many injuries to key players coming out of summer/fall camp that likely shed 2-3 wins off our season record. I’ll need to know more about our personnel come game week before casting my vote with final commentary.
As we sit here less than 3 weeks out, I’m inclined to vote 8-3. I could see this falling two different ways, we drop 3 of our 4 toughest non-conference games (UCONN, Monmouth Yale & Harvard) but still run the table to win the PL. I think everyone would consider this another great season vs a touch schedule.
However, what if we go 2-2 vs those 4 but lose to Fordham in the Bronx to finish 2nd in the PL. The match up between the Fordham offense vs the HC defense for the title could be epic. This being the second to last game of the year will most likely come down to the health of each team. Fordham does play two FBS programs this year in Nebraska and FAU.
So question to the group, if it’s the latter where we do well vs the tough non-conference schedule but don’t win the PL, would we still consider that 8-3 an “excellent” season?
|
|
|
|
Post by longsuffering on Aug 17, 2021 12:45:47 GMT -5
I’m going to wait to put my “official” vote in as I’ve been a part of too many teams (HS and College) that sustained so many injuries to key players coming out of summer/fall camp that likely shed 2-3 wins off our season record. I’ll need to know more about our personnel come game week before casting my vote with final commentary. As we sit here less than 3 weeks out, I’m inclined to vote 8-3. I could see this falling two different ways, we drop 3 of our 4 toughest non-conference games (UCONN, Monmouth Yale & Harvard) but still run the table to win the PL. I think everyone would consider this another great season vs a touch schedule. However, what if we go 2-2 vs those 4 but lose to Fordham in the Bronx to finish 2nd in the PL. The match up between the Fordham offense vs the HC defense for the title could be epic. This being the second to last game of the year will most likely come down to the health of each team. Fordham does play two FBS programs this year in Nebraska and FAU. So question to the group, if it’s the latter where we do well vs the tough non-conference schedule but don’t win the PL, would we still consider that 8-3 an “excellent” season? I'll say what Boston Celtics management kept saying during their 1986-2008 championship drought, "We're championship driven." So, 8-3 and sit during the playoffs could not be defined as excellent after two straight league crowns. But big wins over UConn, Monmouth or Yale would be cherished and very enjoyable. They would give us an outside shot at an at large berth. |
|
|
|
Post by sader1970 on Aug 17, 2021 12:47:37 GMT -5
If we end up 8-3 and of those 8, 2 of them are against the teams you mentioned and don't get an at-large bid I would be the first to scream "WE WAS ROBBED!"
|
|
|
|
Post by hchoops on Aug 17, 2021 13:08:39 GMT -5
To rely on the poobahs at the NCAA for a bid would be foolhardy
That 8-3 would be ok, but not excellent. Our primary goal is the PLC and the auto bid
|
|
|
|
Post by HC92 on Aug 17, 2021 13:10:23 GMT -5
If we don’t go to the FCS playoffs, the season will have been a disappointment. It’s good that we’re at the point where this statement is a true one.
|
|
|
|
Post by midwestsader05 on Aug 17, 2021 13:27:20 GMT -5
IMO, the only way we would be considered for an at large bid would be a 9-2 record where we go 2-1 against UCONN, Monmouth and Yale. Also, we would probably need Fordham to go 9-2 considering how the committee views the quality of PL competition. Fordham has a BRUTAL first 4 games (@ Nebraska, vs Monmouth @ FAU and @ Stony Brook.) Fordham would have to win 2 of those 4 for the PL to get two bids.
Also, 2 new videos up on HC Football twitter page. First video is of Ayir wearing a go-pro during practice (pretty cool.) Second is another segment on Spectrum 3 by Kevin Shea. If you look closely at the practice footage there are some clues on personnel.
Finally, they updated Honohan to TE and Purdy to RB on the official roster (those of us paying attention already knew this and had commented) Hopefully, next is updated pictures and weights when we release the official season outlook. At the very latest, they should be updated when we release the final 2-deep and UCONN game preview during game week (unless they don’t care, but if they are updating positions why not reflect everything else accurately)
|
|
|
|
Post by bringbackcaro on Aug 17, 2021 13:28:19 GMT -5
Is 6-7 wins really "not bad" in Year 4 for Coach Chesney against an extremely manageable schedule?
Particularly the 6 side of that range -- 6-5 should be a significant disappointment.
|
|
|
|
Post by efg72 on Aug 17, 2021 13:50:56 GMT -5
I believe this team is better than we were, but until I see us slow down teams that can move the ball through the air, and we can consistently attack others through the air and let our WR take over I think we are good for 8 wins. I think we lose one PL game, get a split out of the Monomouth/UCONN games, and lose to Yale.
Concerning BBC comments about year 4 and having 6 -7 wins I would say that the staff successfully built a winning program and with added depth is on the way to having a consistent winner with 8-10 wins each season.
As we look at hoops in the weeks ahead, I would say in years 3-4 if we are in the range of 16-17 wins it would be considered similar by winning percentage to the 6-7 wins achieved in football.
As always I am happy to be wrong and we win more than 8 games
|
|
|
|
Post by KY Crusader 75 on Aug 17, 2021 15:04:37 GMT -5
I have always approached this mathematically, the same way KenPom does for basketball: estimating the percentage chance of winning each game and adding up those percentages, rather than making a strict W-L call on each game. For this season my percentages ranged from a low of a 30% chance to beat Monmouth to a high of 95% versus Merrimack and Georgetown on Fitton Field. That analysis took me to 7.75 wins for the regular season.
I also looked at by OOC and PL and figured in
OOC
0 Wins= 0% probability
1 Win- 10%
2 Wins= 30%
3 Wins= 55%
4 wins= 5%
5 Wins= 0% (I know it's not zero chance but I don't go below 5% or above 95% in my goofy projections)
That works out to 2.55 wins
Patriot League
0 Wins= 0%
1 Win= 0 %
2 Wins= 0 %
3 Wins= 5%
4 Wins= 25%
5 Wins= 40%
6 Wins= 30%
That works out to 4.95 wins
I'm sure if I did the real math using the probability for each game I'd see some errors in my ballpark estimates but I've bored you all enough already. This second method yields a nice round 7.5 wins.
I'll go with 8 wins for the regular season
|
|
|
|
Post by sader1970 on Aug 17, 2021 15:31:08 GMT -5
Very impressive but I'll stick with my intuition based on having watched hundreds of HC games against many of the same opponents and faith in Coach Chesney as it likely took me a lot shorter time and produced almost the same results.  |
|
