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Post by nycrusader2010 on Aug 27, 2021 10:08:39 GMT -5
Not sure if anyone saw this but Bucknell Head Coach on PL Media Day saying Fordham is the class of the league. He could end up being right - time will tell - but if that’s not bulletin board material this season I don’t know what is. Not only is Fordham very good, they get us at home. And with the chip on their shoulder of having blown double digit leads against us each of the last two seasons. The Rams will have plenty of bulletin board material of their own. Our secret weapon at QB won't be catching them by surprise this year either. If both teams come into game undefeated in PL play and weather is decent, should be a near-sellout at Jack Coffey Field.
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Post by nycrusader2010 on Aug 27, 2021 10:15:35 GMT -5
Why does home and away have to be the case? Why couldn't a school simply say they'll play no more than one road game in the non-conference schedule? Some larger programs does this frequently and the home field advantage pays off in playoff/bowl consideration. Granted, it reduces the number of available opponents--probably a few more Merrimacks and a few less Delawares on future schedules. But if you've got PL teams facing 1-4 records heading into league play, there is no path to an at-large bid, and little room for a winning record overall. We can get home and away series with the Ivies and should seek them with regional CAA teams also. UMass should be a home and away series while they are flailing in FBS and continue when they inevitably fall back to earth in FCS. Worcester is like a home game for them. They have played home basketball games at the DCU. I attended one vs South Carolina. It was the first time I ever saw a "UMass Worcester" banner, which was hanging from the balcony in the enthusiastic UMass Medical School section. You would think Maine would like to get below the tree line every other year.🙂 Just about all of the Ivy and CAA series booked by PL teams are home-and-home. Couple exceptions that Delaware typically draws well enough at home to play buy games. Our 2005 game there was such. Colgate's current series with William & Mary is a 2-for-1 I believe -- hard to entice people to travel up to Hamilton. Long bus trip from just about anywhere and no airport close by. Ivy series I think are all home-and-home now. The days of Yale being "too big time" to come to Worcester are long gone. UMASS won't play us at Fitton. FBS teams don't play road games at FCS, just doesn't happen even at the low end. No reason we can't get a game in Amherst, however. And a HC-UMASS game at Fenway wouldn't be implausible either.
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Post by longsuffering on Aug 27, 2021 13:37:11 GMT -5
We can get home and away series with the Ivies and should seek them with regional CAA teams also. UMass should be a home and away series while they are flailing in FBS and continue when they inevitably fall back to earth in FCS. Worcester is like a home game for them. They have played home basketball games at the DCU. I attended one vs South Carolina. It was the first time I ever saw a "UMass Worcester" banner, which was hanging from the balcony in the enthusiastic UMass Medical School section. You would think Maine would like to get below the tree line every other year.🙂 Just about all of the Ivy and CAA series booked by PL teams are home-and-home. Couple exceptions that Delaware typically draws well enough at home to play buy games. Our 2005 game there was such. Colgate's current series with William & Mary is a 2-for-1 I believe -- hard to entice people to travel up to Hamilton. Long bus trip from just about anywhere and no airport close by. Ivy series I think are all home-and-home now. The days of Yale being "too big time" to come to Worcester are long gone. UMASS won't play us at Fitton. FBS teams don't play road games at FCS, just doesn't happen even at the low end. No reason we can't get a game in Amherst, however. And a HC-UMASS game at Fenway wouldn't be implausible either. That's a great idea about Fenway Park. The UMass experiment with using Gillette Stadium for home games during their initial entry into FCS didn't generate large crowds but as I recall one of the better turnouts at Gillette was a game vs UNH when both fan bases were local. UMass and HC both have large numbers of recent grads who gravitate to Boston, and fans could fly into Logan and take public transportation to the game. Sounds like a party.
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Post by nycrusader2010 on Aug 27, 2021 14:12:23 GMT -5
Just about all of the Ivy and CAA series booked by PL teams are home-and-home. Couple exceptions that Delaware typically draws well enough at home to play buy games. Our 2005 game there was such. Colgate's current series with William & Mary is a 2-for-1 I believe -- hard to entice people to travel up to Hamilton. Long bus trip from just about anywhere and no airport close by. Ivy series I think are all home-and-home now. The days of Yale being "too big time" to come to Worcester are long gone. UMASS won't play us at Fitton. FBS teams don't play road games at FCS, just doesn't happen even at the low end. No reason we can't get a game in Amherst, however. And a HC-UMASS game at Fenway wouldn't be implausible either. That's a great idea about Fenway Park. The UMass experiment with using Gillette Stadium for home games during their initial entry into FCS didn't generate large crowds but as I recall one of the better turnouts at Gillette was a game vs UNH when both fan bases were local. UMass and HC both have large numbers of recent grads who gravitate to Boston, and fans could fly into Logan and take public transportation to the game. Sounds like a party. I also like the idea of a "stadium series" between Holy Cross and Maine. One at Fitton, one in Orono, one at Polar and one at SeaDogs Stadium in Portland. Maine has a tough time finding non-conference opponents. Doesn't seem like HC or any of the New England Ivies have any interest in going up there. They had a recent series with Yale but usually end up hosting a random D2 team or playing 2 FBS buy games to fill schedule.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Aug 27, 2021 15:55:06 GMT -5
For UMaine I think the biggest appeal of playing at Sea Dogs Park would be that is in Portland, rather than the novelty of playing football at a baseball park. Rather than redo the baseball field, I think it would be better to play next door at Fitzpatrick Stadium, a football field that seats 6,000.
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Post by longsuffering on Aug 27, 2021 16:33:53 GMT -5
I hope 6,000 isn't the new reality for FCS drawing power, but on the positive side I believe Fitzpatrick Stadium has a Leprechaun on the grounds crew.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Aug 30, 2021 16:27:52 GMT -5
Here's how I see this OOC going for the conference. I am counting on the following:
Colgate and Lehigh show some improvement over their woeful performances in the shortened 2021 Spring season Georgetown moves forward a little bit--after all the program is much improved over a decade ago Bucknell and Lafayette are stable Fordham and Holy Cross build on recent strong seasons
Team X= Low number of wins if things go poorly Y= High number of wins of things break the team's way Z= Expected win total all things considered
Lafayette has a 5% chance to beat Air Force (I never use 0% or 100%) to 25% to beat William & Mary X= 0 Y= 1 Z= 0.8
Lehigh has a 10% chance to beat Richmond or Princeton to 20% chance to beat Penn X= 0 Y= 1 Z= 0.7
Colgate has a 5% chance to beat bc to a 35% chance to beat Cornell X= 0 Y= 2 Z= 1.3
Bucknell has a 5% chance to beat Army to a 45% chance to beat Cornell X= 0 Y= 2 Z= 1.05
Fordham has a 5% chance to beat Nebraska to an 80% chance to beat Wagner X= 1 Y= 2 Z= 1.65
Georgetown has a 15% chance to beat Harvard (wouldn't that be something) to a 75% chance to beat Marist X= 1 Y= 3 Z= 2.4
Holy Cross has a 30% chance to beat Monmouth (probably could be higher than that) to a 95% chance to beat Merrimack X= 1 Y= 4 Z= 2.8
Patriot League X= 3 wins if everything goes wrong for every team in every game Y= 15 wins if each PL team has everything go well in every game Z= 10.7 wins expected
I'm going to round that down to 10 wins for Patriot League teams out of conference as I may be too optimistic in my expectations of some team improving
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Sept 3, 2021 23:58:21 GMT -5
Okay--clearly not as much interest in this poll, understandably, as in the HC wins poll. Last call-closing time is noon Saturday the 4th
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Sept 25, 2021 21:32:31 GMT -5
Patriot League up to 6 OOC wins with today’s 3 big victories. Hopefully more W’s to come
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Oct 7, 2021 15:14:52 GMT -5
Patriot League has 7 OOC wins and 5 more OOC games to play
Colgate at Brown= 55% Colgate win Lehigh at Penn= 5% Lehigh win (never below 5% or above 95%) Lafayette at Harvard= 10% Lafayette win Fordham vs Wagner = 85% Fordham win Bucknell at Army= 5% Bucknell win Georgetown at Morgan State= 55% Georgetown win
So the forecast is most likely 2 wins, possibly 3 for the conference
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Post by A Clock Tower Purple on Oct 7, 2021 15:45:34 GMT -5
How does a 55% chance of a W fall into a "most likely" win bucket?
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Oct 7, 2021 18:24:41 GMT -5
How does a 55% chance of a W fall into a "most likely" win bucket? Add up all the percentages and that will give you the expected number of wins for all the remaining games. Let’s illustrate using a deck of 52 cards. Take out 2 red cards. You “win” if you cut a black card. You have a 26/(52-2)= 52% chance in every game because you always return the card you cut back to the deck. If you play 100 games you’ll be the favorite to win every individual game but projected to win 52 in total
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Post by A Clock Tower Purple on Oct 7, 2021 18:31:36 GMT -5
How does a 55% chance of a W fall into a "most likely" win bucket? Add up all the percentages and that will give you the expected number of wins for all the remaining games. Let’s illustrate using a deck of 52 cards. Take out 2 red cards. You “win” if you cut a black card. You have a 26/(52-2)= 52% chance in every game because you always return the card you cut back to the deck. If you play 100 games you’ll be the favorite to win every individual game but projected to win 52 in total Yeah I obviously get that, but a 52% chance doesn't equate to "most likely" as you stated. It's 2% above a coin flip which definitely isn't "most likely".
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Oct 7, 2021 18:45:48 GMT -5
Add up all the percentages and that will give you the expected number of wins for all the remaining games. Let’s illustrate using a deck of 52 cards. Take out 2 red cards. You “win” if you cut a black card. You have a 26/(52-2)= 52% chance in every game because you always return the card you cut back to the deck. If you play 100 games you’ll be the favorite to win every individual game but projected to win 52 in total Yeah I obviously get that, but a 52% chance doesn't equate to "most likely" as you stated. It's 2% above a coin flip which definitely isn't "most likely". I suggested that 2 wins was the most likely outcome because if you add up all the percentages of the individual games you get a total of 2.15 wins for the group.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Nov 20, 2021 0:37:48 GMT -5
Patriot League teams have won 8 OOC games to date (Holy Cross 3, Fordham 2, and Georgetown, Lafayette, and Bucknell 1 each) ) and tomorrow Georgetown plays the last OOC game of the season for the conference. Will Georgetown give the PL its 9th OOC win? You see above that "9-10" wins got the highest number of votes by our predictors.
EDIT: Made two corrections-wow
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Post by sader1970 on Nov 20, 2021 7:38:36 GMT -5
Well, I was really off no matter what GU's results are as I picked 12.
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Post by hcpride on Nov 20, 2021 7:47:19 GMT -5
Fordham’s first three games are incredibly tough (Nebraska, Monmouth, Florida Atlantic). Ouch! If they are healthy their 4th game is a possible win (Stony Brook is down this year IMHO). I'll guess 8 PL OOC victories this season. /\ /\ I've been wrong all year (most especially last week) so this is my one chance to be right. Go Georgetown!
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Post by hc6774 on Nov 20, 2021 8:08:46 GMT -5
Patriot League teams have won 8 OOC games to date (HC 3, Fordham 2, LAF, Lehigh, Colgate 1 each) and tomorrow Georgetown plays the last OOC game of the season for the conference. Will Georgetown give the PL its 9th OOC win? You see above that "9-10" wins got the highest number of votes by our predictors. Bucknell 1
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Nov 20, 2021 10:30:03 GMT -5
Thanks--made the correction
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Post by HC92 on Nov 20, 2021 11:02:38 GMT -5
Not sure if anyone saw this but Bucknell Head Coach on PL Media Day saying Fordham is the class of the league. He could end up being right - time will tell - but if that’s not bulletin board material this season I don’t know what is. Hopefully we can give him a very painful reminder today of who the class of the league truly is. Spoiler alert . . . it ain’t Bucknell.
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Post by sader1970 on Nov 20, 2021 11:30:06 GMT -5
It would appear that the Bucknell coach has given up on the season or at least this game based on the 2-deep for this game:
Offense starters:
5 freshmen
4 sophomores
1 junior
1 senior
Defense starters:
3 freshmen
4 sophomores
3 juniors
1 senior
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Post by midwestsader05 on Nov 20, 2021 12:38:57 GMT -5
I voted 9-10. I’ll go with an overall record of 10-25. 3 OOC wins by one PL team is the most. Either HC or G’Town (or both) We also sort of got gipped a bit because preseason I had G’Town beating 2 of 3 (Marist, Delaware State and Morgan State) Obviously, Marist came cancelled.
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Post by midwestsader05 on Nov 20, 2021 12:45:53 GMT -5
Patriot League teams have won 8 OOC games to date (HC 3, Fordham 2, LAF, Lehigh, Colgate 1 each) and tomorrow Georgetown plays the last OOC game of the season for the conference. Will Georgetown give the PL its 9th OOC win? You see above that "9-10" wins got the highest number of votes by our predictors. Bucknell 1 FWIW, G’Town has the 8th win (Delaware St) Colgate has 0.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Nov 20, 2021 12:52:45 GMT -5
For the life of me I don't know how I twice made such errors on simply reading the standings on the PL site
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Post by longsuffering on Nov 20, 2021 13:54:58 GMT -5
Sluka slithers, Siderman shreds. Oops, wrong thread.
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