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Post by Sons of Vaval on Oct 24, 2016 11:11:19 GMT -5
HC is the 214th ranked team; predicted to go 15-16 (10-8 in PL).
PL teams are ranked as follows:
Lehigh 142 BU 162 Bucknell 189 HC 214 Colgate 246 Navy 286 Loyola 295 Lafayette 301 American 315 Army 325
PL is ranked as the 26th conference.
Bottom five in the PL, if we are to go by the preseason rankings, could be real bad this year.
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Post by hchoops on Oct 24, 2016 11:16:42 GMT -5
Cuse--12 URI--43 South Carolina--62 Monmouth --94 Harvard--128 umass--151 Albany--183 UNH--186
accordinv to kenpom I presume these will be our 8 OOC losses
other opponents are ranked below HC
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Oct 24, 2016 11:44:44 GMT -5
BC basketball, according to KP, isn't favored in any of their ACC games. Another winless ACC season for the Eagles? One can hope.
HC favored in four OOC games: SC State, Maine, Sacred Heart, and Marist.
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Post by hchoops on Oct 24, 2016 11:52:04 GMT -5
BC basketball, according to KP, isn't favored in any of their ACC games. Another winless ACC season for the Eagles? One can hope. HC favored in four OOC games: SC State, Maine, Sacred Heart, and Marist. How about vs the Q ?
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Oct 24, 2016 11:55:01 GMT -5
BC basketball, according to KP, isn't favored in any of their ACC games. Another winless ACC season for the Eagles? One can hope. HC favored in four OOC games: SC State, Maine, Sacred Heart, and Marist. How about vs the Q ? Predicted to lose, 67-66.
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Post by hchoops on Oct 24, 2016 11:57:41 GMT -5
He has us winning 5 OOC games What is the fifth ?
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Oct 24, 2016 12:26:02 GMT -5
He has us winning 5 OOC games What is the fifth ? Just because HC is favored to win a game, that doesn't mean KP assigns that game as a win. For instance, HC has a 39% chance to beat Monmouth, 31% to beat Albany, 31% to beat UNH, and 45% chance to beat Quinnipiac -- if we are to play the percentages, KP would probably have us winning one of these games. HC is favored in 13 PL games, but that doesn't mean KP predicts them to win each game.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Oct 24, 2016 12:38:11 GMT -5
I think that KenPom figures his final W-L the same way I do when we have our own competitions on the board: he adds up the percentage chance of winning each game to come up with the final projected record: "Projected record is based on cumulative probabilities of winning each game and may not equal the sum of individual game predictions." Here's an example: if you played ten games and were the underdog in each with a 40% chance of winning each game, he'd predict a loss for each individual game but a final record of 4-6 in those ten games.
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Post by sader1970 on Oct 24, 2016 12:41:13 GMT -5
Ahh, probabilities and statistics. PP is likely salivating at this last post, KY. 😊
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Oct 24, 2016 12:44:07 GMT -5
Note that Holy Cross finishes tied for #107 in the "Most Popular Team" list on KenPom. Kansas, Virginia, Duke, Indiana, Michigan are the top 5. I think this is simply a measure of how many of each school's fans have signed up for KenPom.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Oct 24, 2016 12:54:55 GMT -5
One more note on KenPom--(a site I'd highly recommend--some great stats and also good opinion pieces and analyses by Ken Pomeroy): I've copied the preseason predictions for HC so we can look back during the year and see how individual game predictions change after HC starts out-performing his original predictions.
Here are some of the topics Ken covers on his site
Strategy Studying whether to foul when tied, Part 3
Studying whether to foul when tied, Part 2
Studying whether to foul when tied, Part 1
Who’s the best in-game coach?
Investigating the value of two-for-ones
Yet another study about fouling when up 3
Summer Series ’16: Foul trouble
Foul trouble as defined by coaches
Foul trouble data by coach
Foul trouble as defined by players
The implications of a noisy graph
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Post by somedaycamesuddenly on Oct 24, 2016 14:02:29 GMT -5
One thing to note is that the top of the conference is probably slightly overrated by Ken Pom. Since there aren't a lot of instant impact freshman or transfers in the PL, other high or mid-majors that have those types of players won't be as accurately represented until a significant amount of games occur.
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Post by bison137 on Oct 24, 2016 16:34:58 GMT -5
One thing to note is that the top of the conference is probably slightly overrated by Ken Pom. Since there aren't a lot of instant impact freshman or transfers in the PL, other high or mid-majors that have those types of players won't be as accurately represented until a significant amount of games occur. They definitely aren't perfectly represented - but Pomeroy does incorporate transfers and highly ranked freshmen.
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Post by bison137 on Oct 24, 2016 16:45:52 GMT -5
BC basketball, according to KP, isn't favored in any of their ACC games. Another winless ACC season for the Eagles? One can hope. HC favored in four OOC games: SC State, Maine, Sacred Heart, and Marist. One can hope -,although BC has enough games with win probabilities between 20% and 43% to have a KP predicted record of 3-15. It would be beyond extraordinary if they can go winless in conference play for two consecutive years in both football and basketball.
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Post by Non Alum Dave on Oct 24, 2016 17:27:20 GMT -5
I'm not seeing American being the 315th best team in the country; just not seeing that.
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