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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Oct 8, 2021 20:54:10 GMT -5
Tom-- The 10-11 wins that our posters have as the consensus benchmark is for PL regular season games only. As well--this is not a prediction of wins (we always do that poll closer to the start of the season) but, rather, the "number of games the Crusaders must win in 21-22 for the poster to have confidence that Coach Nelson is the right coach for HC." As always, an extremely logical exercise to set a benchmark like this before seeing any live action…. In fact, I'll suggest that it is extremely logical. One needs to pay attention to what the purpose of the exercise was. I'll try one more time. It is not a prediction of the number of wins we will get. It asked each poster to state how many wins we needed to get to make each poster confident that Nelson is the right coach for HC. So a poster might say "I think we'll only win 6 or 7 PL games but it will take 10 for me to be happy with CBN". If we win those 10 games and the poster says he wants to whack Nelson, the logical response would be "hey you said you'd be happy with him if HC won 10 reg season PL games and we did." I guess I can go back and look but I'll just ask what number of wins did you state would make you confident in the coach? I think it's always good to go n the record.
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Post by bringbackcaro on Oct 8, 2021 21:05:21 GMT -5
As always, an extremely logical exercise to set a benchmark like this before seeing any live action…. In fact, I'll suggest that it is extremely logical. One needs to pay attention to what the purpose of the exercise was. I'll try one more time. It is not a prediction of the number of wins we will get. It asked each poster to state how many wins we needed to get to make each poster confident that Nelson is the right coach for HC. So a poster might say "I think we'll only win 6 or 7 PL games but it will take 10 for me to be happy with CBN". If we win those 10 games and the poster says he wants to whack Nelson, the logical response would be "hey you said you'd be happy with him if HC won 10 reg season PL games and we did." I guess I can go back and look but I'll just ask what number of wins did you state would make you confident in the coach? I think it's always good to go n the record. So what happens if Gates tears his ACL in November and we win 9 PL games? Failure and firing? Do you often bet on horse races with ponies who have raced one or fewer times? Or is it too much of a crap shoot to try and figure out how they will perform until you have more info/data?
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Oct 8, 2021 21:17:53 GMT -5
In fact, I'll suggest that it is extremely logical. One needs to pay attention to what the purpose of the exercise was. I'll try one more time. It is not a prediction of the number of wins we will get. It asked each poster to state how many wins we needed to get to make each poster confident that Nelson is the right coach for HC. So a poster might say "I think we'll only win 6 or 7 PL games but it will take 10 for me to be happy with CBN". If we win those 10 games and the poster says he wants to whack Nelson, the logical response would be "hey you said you'd be happy with him if HC won 10 reg season PL games and we did." I guess I can go back and look but I'll just ask what number of wins did you state would make you confident in the coach? I think it's always good to go n the record. So what happens if Gates tears his ACL in November and we win 9 PL games? Failure and firing? Do you often bet on horse races with ponies who have raced one or fewer times? Or is it too much of a crap shoot to try and figure out how they will perform until you have more info/data? It is increasingly clear that you do not believe in measuring Coach Nelson by the team's W-L record Regarding the horses- I love betting on maiden races with first time starters, checking the pedigrees top and bottom for precocity, class, surface, and distance tendencies; looking at workouts; and seeing what the trainer's record is under such conditions.
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Post by longsuffering on Oct 9, 2021 0:58:29 GMT -5
If HC wins 10 league games that will be a 10-8 winning PL record. Wouldn't we be doing cartwheels, not calling for a firing? If I was a co-Associate Interim Athletic Director, I might devise a grading system that gives OOC wins one point, league wins two points and PLT wins four points. That attempts to establish the true value of the coach based on what will lead us to the promised land: a return to the NCAA tournament.
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Post by Tom on Oct 9, 2021 7:08:14 GMT -5
In fact, I'll suggest that it is extremely logical. One needs to pay attention to what the purpose of the exercise was. I'll try one more time. It is not a prediction of the number of wins we will get. It asked each poster to state how many wins we needed to get to make each poster confident that Nelson is the right coach for HC. So a poster might say "I think we'll only win 6 or 7 PL games but it will take 10 for me to be happy with CBN". If we win those 10 games and the poster says he wants to whack Nelson, the logical response would be "hey you said you'd be happy with him if HC won 10 reg season PL games and we did." I guess I can go back and look but I'll just ask what number of wins did you state would make you confident in the coach? I think it's always good to go n the record. So what happens if Gates tears his ACL in November and we win 9 PL games? Failure and firing? Do you often bet on horse races with ponies who have raced one or fewer times? Or is it too much of a crap shoot to try and figure out how they will perform until you have more info/data? Let's assume that in the fall of 2019, everything was the worst of the worst. And yes, last rear was very abnormal Is it unreasonable to have expectations in year 3? 10 to 11 PL wins was an opinion poll what posters would consider minimum wins to be confident that Coach Nelson was in fact the man to lead this program going forward. If this squad goes 5-13 in conference, even with injuries, Coach Nelson won't be getting fired. However, I don't think it would be unreasonable to lose some of our optimism about the near future.. We could flip this around. Is there honestly no number that would make you question whether or not Coach Nelson is the right man for the job? In the extreme, if these guys go 0-32, would you still be optimistic for the future? And yes, things can happen that make you adjust your expectations, but that doesn't mean people shouldn't have expectations. If the team wins their first 9 PL games and then hepatitis cancels the rest of the season, I'm guessing all those 10-11 votes won't have their confidence in Coach Nelson. My boss sets out performance expectations/goals for me every year, even if things might happen beyond my control that make them unachievable. I
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Post by Non Alum Dave on Oct 9, 2021 15:28:00 GMT -5
I think I may be kinda sorta with bbc a little bit on this. While I do believe there should be increased expectations with each passing year, I don't necessarily believe in tying it to a minimum number of wins. For instance, I think I would prefer a 12 win team over a 16 win team if the 12 win team played all close games, took Colgate down to the wire and didn't back down to them....while the 16 win team played with less consistency, beat the bad teams but couldn't close the gap on the better teams.
When I think about this, I go back in my mind to Milan Brown's 2013-14 team (the won that won 20 games and played in that also ran tournament). I thought that was a pretty darn good team.I thought they could win the league. But unfortunately, MB had this little problem: while he had a regular season PL record of 40-38 during his tenure, he went 4-10 against FOH and Mike Brennan (36-28 against everyone else!). Those guys were his kryptonite; I believe that was what led to his downfall. Had he stayed on, I believe over time he could have won a title - if he could have avoided those 2 in a PL tournament; he seemed to be hitting his stride recruiting wise as he went on.
So, I look at this year as a year to see what CBN's kryptonite might be, and does he have what it takes to overcome it (if it exists). As I've said before, we should learn a lot about his program this year.
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Post by nycrusader2010 on Oct 9, 2021 18:41:47 GMT -5
Lets not forget Brown was one of the worst offensive coaches in Division I.
We also couldn't even make a PL title game with Malcolm Miller on the roster for 4 years. Hes the only PL grad to have played in the NBA but not make it to the Dance. Safe to say his talents were not properly harnessed in Worcester.
Edit: Andre Ingram of American I believe never won the PL. AU went back to back right after he left. And his NBA career was basically a "feel good" cup of coffee with the Lakers after a decade of D League service. Not to say it wasn't a well deserved accomplishment.
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Post by hchoops on Oct 9, 2021 19:11:08 GMT -5
Not to argue for Milan as any offensive genius, but Malcolm Miller was your classic late bloomer. He certainly was not a dominant player during his first 2-3 years. So I certainly did not expect him to lead us to a PL title game, even if we had a great offensive coach.
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Post by rgs318 on Oct 9, 2021 20:24:07 GMT -5
MM was battling a huge off-court issue with the illness and death of his mom. That cannot be overlooked. He had little left to give, but what he had he put into the team. Let's just be thankful for what he brought to the team in his last two years. Perhaps FCMB was important in helping him to adjust, to grieve the loss of his mother and to move on.
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Post by Tom on Oct 10, 2021 9:59:01 GMT -5
Not to argue for Milan as any offensive genius, but Malcolm Miller was your classic late bloomer. He certainly was not a dominant player during his first 2-3 years. So I certainly did not expect him to lead us to a PL title game, even if we had a great offensive coach. I think the issue with his mom was huge. That being said, to what degree is the late bloomer a function of the coach? Isn't part of a coach's job to help players reach their potential? I think Coach Brown failed on that score
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Post by HC92 on Oct 10, 2021 10:14:09 GMT -5
If you explore further in that website you see someone's ranking of Top 20 Patriot League coaches from the years 2000-2020 10) Spiker -Army 9) Jones- BU 8) O'Hanlon Lafayette 7) Langel-Colgate 6) Davis-Bucknell 5) Jones- American U 4) Paulsen-Bucknell 3) Willard- Holy Cross 2) Reed-Lehigh 1) F;annery-Bucknell Did we just let this pass without comment? There is no world in which Mr. Brett Reed is in the same stratosphere as RW.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Oct 10, 2021 10:22:48 GMT -5
Yes- surprised there were no comments on that one. I believe there are others who would not have Jones of BU in the top 50 PL coaches....
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Post by sader1970 on Oct 10, 2021 12:01:38 GMT -5
1. because most of us don't give a rat's backside over some subjective ranking and 2. someone must be impressed with his Ph.D.
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Post by Non Alum Dave on Oct 10, 2021 13:33:24 GMT -5
Regarding Malcolm, it should also be noted that he played at a small high school, and did not play a post grad year at a prep school, like many do. And he didn't exactly dominate in high school either.
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Post by hceconhist on Oct 11, 2021 18:56:29 GMT -5
Not to argue for Milan as any offensive genius, but Malcolm Miller was your classic late bloomer. He certainly was not a dominant player during his first 2-3 years. So I certainly did not expect him to lead us to a PL title game, even if we had a great offensive coach. I think the issue with his mom was huge. That being said, to what degree is the late bloomer a function of the coach? Isn't part of a coach's job to help players reach their potential? I think Coach Brown failed on that score I think it depends on where the baseline is. There is no question Malcolm was grades better upon graduation than where he was when he entered Mt. St. James. Part of the problem here is that Malcolm graduated a couple of years after CJ and Muscala, largely creating a (to be fair) subconscious bias. Yes, Malcolm was in the NBA at a fortunate time for the Raptors, but he was not getting serious minutes in a high number of games (especially high leverage ones). He was nowhere near CJ or Muscala, especially CJ. I don't think its fair to essentially say "Milan had his CJ McCollum but couldn't win with him, and if you cannot with with a NBA player in the PL, that's a poor mark on you."
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Oct 11, 2021 19:00:15 GMT -5
I think the issue with his mom was huge. That being said, to what degree is the late bloomer a function of the coach? Isn't part of a coach's job to help players reach their potential? I think Coach Brown failed on that score I think it depends on where the baseline is. There is no question Malcolm was grades better upon graduation than where he was when he entered Mt. St. James. Part of the problem here is that Malcolm graduated a couple of years after CJ and Muscala, largely creating a (to be fair) subconscious bias. Yes, Malcolm was in the NBA at a fortunate time for the Raptors, but he was not getting serious minutes in a high number of games (especially high leverage ones). He was nowhere near CJ or Muscala, especially CJ. I don't think its fair to essentially say "Milan had his CJ McCollum but couldn't win with him, and if you cannot with with a NBA player in the PL, that's a poor mark on you." Agree. Malcolm was never a first team All-PL guy. Remarkable to think a PL guy could end up in the NBA and never be a first-teamer.
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Post by hceconhist on Oct 11, 2021 19:05:50 GMT -5
Lets not forget Brown was one of the worst offensive coaches in Division I. We also couldn't even make a PL title game with Malcolm Miller on the roster for 4 years. Hes the only PL grad to have played in the NBA but not make it to the Dance. Safe to say his talents were not properly harnessed in Worcester. Edit: Andre Ingram of American I believe never won the PL. AU went back to back right after he left. And his NBA career was basically a "feel good" cup of coffee with the Lakers after a decade of D League service. Not to say it wasn't a well deserved accomplishment. I think across that spectrum, at least in terms of an NBA career, Malcom is substantially closer to the Andre Ingram experience than to the other three with more traditional NBA careers. While he made it to the show much quicker than Ingram, he has played a total of 355 minutes over three seasons and is now in Europe. Still an amazing accomplishment that no one here came close towards, but lets not act like FCMB got to revolve an offense around CJ McCollum.
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Post by hceconhist on Oct 11, 2021 19:11:08 GMT -5
I think it depends on where the baseline is. There is no question Malcolm was grades better upon graduation than where he was when he entered Mt. St. James. Part of the problem here is that Malcolm graduated a couple of years after CJ and Muscala, largely creating a (to be fair) subconscious bias. Yes, Malcolm was in the NBA at a fortunate time for the Raptors, but he was not getting serious minutes in a high number of games (especially high leverage ones). He was nowhere near CJ or Muscala, especially CJ. I don't think its fair to essentially say "Milan had his CJ McCollum but couldn't win with him, and if you cannot with with a NBA player in the PL, that's a poor mark on you." Agree. Malcolm was never a first team All-PL guy. Remarkable to think a PL guy could end up in the NBA and never be a first-teamer. I think its because he has the very raw skill sets. Given how comparatively cheap his services are, why not sign him to a deal and at least use him in practice to mimic future opponents?
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Post by hceconhist on Oct 11, 2021 19:16:37 GMT -5
In fact, I'll suggest that it is extremely logical. One needs to pay attention to what the purpose of the exercise was. I'll try one more time. It is not a prediction of the number of wins we will get. It asked each poster to state how many wins we needed to get to make each poster confident that Nelson is the right coach for HC. So a poster might say "I think we'll only win 6 or 7 PL games but it will take 10 for me to be happy with CBN". If we win those 10 games and the poster says he wants to whack Nelson, the logical response would be "hey you said you'd be happy with him if HC won 10 reg season PL games and we did." I guess I can go back and look but I'll just ask what number of wins did you state would make you confident in the coach? I think it's always good to go n the record. So what happens if Gates tears his ACL in November and we win 9 PL games? Failure and firing? Do you often bet on horse races with ponies who have raced one or fewer times? Or is it too much of a crap shoot to try and figure out how they will perform until you have more info/data? Here, I largely agree with you. I think what you are saying is "context matters." With the current context, I think its fair to expect 7-10 wins. If they played a typical PL schedule last year, they probably would have one 7-9 games (based on how they did in the toughest PL pod last year).
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Post by efg72 on Oct 11, 2021 19:33:56 GMT -5
If HC doesn't record 10 wins in the PL there must be a good explanation
Otherwise the next year we will need a top 3 finish with 13 PL wins, and 7 plus OOC wins for us to know we are making progress. The players, fans, and school deserve nothing less
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Post by rgs318 on Oct 11, 2021 20:10:59 GMT -5
So are we setting goals for next year based on this season before the first game is played? That seems a tad unrealistic.
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Post by hceconhist on Oct 11, 2021 21:12:40 GMT -5
I think its fair to set goals based on last year, but we should obviously keep a range of outcomes in mind.
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Post by efg72 on Oct 11, 2021 21:52:14 GMT -5
So are we setting goals for next year based on this season before the first game is played? That seems a tad unrealistic. It’s about setting standards and placing the bar at a level it needs to be for progress. To do less is accepting mediocrity or less because it is easy. in the workplace we set objectives for the year with metrics of success. If the objectives aren’t challenging they aren’t approved. Once approved you must deliver to receive a raise and/or bonus and. Keep your job. It is not too much to ask of others to do the same.
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Post by rgs318 on Oct 12, 2021 6:27:02 GMT -5
I respectfully disagree. When we go two years ahead basing the standards of a second fictional year on the previous fictional year IMHO that is not setting standards. It is a personal fantasy that has no real meaning. A second "if" ( if this happens then if a second thing happens we are not setting standards in any meaningful way. I always advise clients to "exceed expectations" but would never say they should exceed expectations and then, if they do, say what they should do the following year.
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Post by efg72 on Oct 12, 2021 6:54:45 GMT -5
I don’t know if I completely agree with the statement either, but I thought it would bring about a healthy discussion about the upcoming season and the direction of the program.
Setting reach objectives are healthy for individuals and organizations. Meeting base expectations are fine, but there are few rewards to those organizations and individuals that are satisfied with meeting expectations. We are getting closer in talent to those at the top of the league, now we find out about execution.
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