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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Nov 8, 2021 11:14:23 GMT -5
I'm tempted to bet you my $1 to your $10,000 with the winnings going to Holy Cross but not sure if that's worth it. HC doesn't need my $1 and while they'd appreciate your $10K which would get you deeply into the President's Council, I'm thinking there are other ways you'd rather spend your retirement savings on . I've been on the President's Council since 1977 but I'm not sure I want to risk this offer to "take it to the next level", no matter how remote the chances.....
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Post by longsuffering on Nov 8, 2021 11:42:23 GMT -5
Ahhh, you have a great memory! Wasn't it a 1-3-1 that Carmody later said they tried earlier in the season but didn't work and then someone, other than him, suggested they bring it back? While the suggestor might have been one of his assistants, in the back of my mind, I thought it might have actually been one of the players. In any case, it apparently flumoxed the PL opponents and Green was a very large reason for the success of the defense. Maybe Eric made the suggestion to try it? They really had absolutely nothing to lose. So, you don't want to even suggest a 1 in 10,000 chance? I remember Eric Green had the opportunity to sit out the end of the season and come back as a fifth year medical redshirt. He said nah, he'd rather play it out with the class he came in with. Smart decision.
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Post by Non Alum Dave on Nov 8, 2021 12:08:34 GMT -5
Eric Green was an elite defender. If you recall, he was coming off an ACL injury suffered at the end of the 2014-15 season. Was just starting to round back into form for the 2016 tourney.
To bring things back, I'm hoping somewhere down the road Caleb Kenney can fill a similar role.
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Post by trimster on Nov 8, 2021 12:52:03 GMT -5
Eric Green was an elite defender. If you recall, he was coming off an ACL injury suffered at the end of the 2014-15 season. Was just starting to round back into form for the 2016 tourney. To bring things back, I'm hoping somewhere down the road Caleb Kenney can fill a similar role. How about starting with tomorrow night?
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Post by rgs318 on Nov 8, 2021 14:14:11 GMT -5
Eric green was also a recruit that a number of Crossports posters called a "waste of a scholarship." They were wrong, but very reluctant to admit it.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Nov 8, 2021 14:58:24 GMT -5
To evaluate our prospects for the coming season I started by looking at (1) what players we are losing, (2) what players we are adding, and (3) how much should we expect returning players to improve.
What we are losing
We are losing a lot in the four departing players. We're losing 43% of our minutes, 47% of our points, 51% of our rebounds. Austin Butler scored the most points, had the most rebounds, and led the team in 3 point shooting percentage. The last player to do that was Jim Nairus in 1991. Please, we don't need a Lloyd Bentsen/Dan Quayle response here. Butler, who also led in steals, was a big contributor and I have to think a leadership influence as well. Matt Faw will also be missed, an excellent shot blocker who could shoot as well. Faw and Butler, according to Sports-Reference, had the two best defensive ratings on the team. Ryan Wade contributed as well. Joey Reilly played only 6 minutes.
What players we are adding
I'm super excited about the newcomers as I always am. I think Kyrell Luc could be very special, a player with some rare gifts and, from all accounts, a very hard worker who will work to improve his game. No doubt he'll have adjustments to make, but he looks to be super-quick and an extraordinary leaper and his highlight reel shows some real creativity finishing near the basket. I don't know if he's a good shooter. I believe he was NEPSAC POY for his level, wasn't he? I look for him to be a big contributor with a very high ceiling--not a sure thing but high potential. Caleb Kenney has gotten great reports from observers and might become a strong defender at multiple positions. We keep searching for comparison players-wonder if he might be like a taller Greg Kinsey? The many posters with a better basketball eye than I have can help here. Nolan Dorsey is a wild card---can't wait to see him on the court and we'll have to see where he fits in. A 6-5 guard with talent is a real asset, I wonder if he might start or see 15+ minutes per game?
Will returning players move forward?
It's clear that Gerrale Gates will be a go-to guy for the team, He's a real force near the basket. I think his big improvement came between UNO and HC when he lost 20 pounds and got a lot quicker. He's not a shooter- he'll hit at .450 to .500 on his twos and take no threes (smart player) and last year he improved his free throw shooting. He's a strong offensive rebounder. I'd like to get 18 points and 8 rebounds a game from GG. One other real plus: he does not commit fouls. So I do not expect him to improve a lot but to stay at the high level he attained last season. RJ Johnson is a real treasure and he had a very solid freshman season. I think he can be a bigger scorer than some previous point guards. We have only one shortened season to reference, but RJ might be a very good three-point shooter. I look for RJ to move forward. Judson Martindale showed tremendous improvement over the course of the short season, e.g. making 6 of his first 25 three pointers (wasn't he supposed to be a shooter?) and then making 14 of his last 25 threes (he is a shooter!). We've heard he's been in the weight room and that should help him closer in to the basket. I think he's a real talent and can really improve this year. Can he provide 12 points and 5 rebounds a game as he gets more minutes? I see those three as key starters, understanding that "minutes played" is more important than who starts. I see them starting and getting minutes. I really don't have a good handle on Bo Montgomery and Bubba Humphrey. I do love that Bubba was 13-20 on his twos--small sample to be sure but he could be solid in driving to the basket. We have not seen evidence that either is a strong three point shooter, but they were freshmen and the sample size is small as well. Multiple posters have cited "length and athleticism" and hopefully that will translate to effectiveness on the court as one or both will likely get more minutes in 2021-2022 as we fill the 77 minutes per game we got from the departing players. I think Louth-M Coulibaly is a real wild card as I believe he is the rawest talent. I see him as a real physical presence underneath, likely ripping down some impressive boards and making blocks, but perhaps committing some fouls as he finds the US D-1 game faster than Canadian prep ball. I think he has a very high upside that may be realized after a year or two and maybe he'll start out well. Mike Rabinovich--great to hear he is healthy now and I think he can give us valuable minutes underneath the basket as a physical presence and scoring some points on high percentage shots. He's probably a guy the staff can "coach up" and teach some new moves. I could have included both big men in the newcomers section. We've heard some good updates on Malcolm Townsell and he can be a steady influence of the bench.
X's & O's
Okay, Coach, this is the season you have to deliver. We have a whole thread laying out each poster's expectations for the minimum required in PL play. These are your players and your system. If you have an effective offense and defense and have the players trained to execute we'll do okay, IF.....
Now the prediction
It's sad to think that on element in forecasting wins is whether on November 21 we play Bethune-Cookman where we'd likely be a very strong favorite or Bryant (Bryant of all teams) where we'd certain underdogs, based on current forecasts. I'll assume it's Bethune-Cookman, (The real BC) and forecast an optimistic
6-7 Out of Conference 7-11 PL Conference regular season 1-1 PL Tournament
14 wins.....
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Post by longsuffering on Nov 8, 2021 15:19:15 GMT -5
I picked fourteen also (13-15) but am leaning north. I am placing a premium on the stability of staff with all their own recruits and no defections from that staff/player core. I'm thinking coiled spring.
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Post by Crosser on Nov 8, 2021 15:32:17 GMT -5
5-7 OOC Ws 9-12 PL Ws 1-2 PLT Ws
My prediction: 19
I had typed out a detailed rationale for my thinking behind this guess. But, it just disappeared into the cyber abyss. And I ain’t going to try to type it all out again. Stoooopid computers!
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Nov 8, 2021 16:20:14 GMT -5
I've done that so many times. Sometimes I am smart enough to type it on a word document and then cut and paste. Sometimes...
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Post by hchoops on Nov 8, 2021 16:21:25 GMT -5
Ky, Fine, thorough analysis. My only quibble is not with you directly, but with Sports Reference’s defensive ratings. Having watched most of Faw’s games over four years, I can say he was far from a strong defender. His penchant for fouling put him on the bench and the team in big holes since we rarely had a qualified sub for him.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Nov 8, 2021 16:51:39 GMT -5
My, Fine, thorough analysis. My only quibble is not with you directly, but with Sports Reference’s defensive ratings. Having watched most of Faw’s games over four years, I can say he was far from a strong defender. His penchant for fouling put him and the team in big holes since we rarely had a qualified sub for him. I think defense may be the toughest thing to quantify. I'm not sure how Sports-Reference makes its calculations. Some years ago, there was a site that provided +/- data for players as one measure. Your expertise and that of other posters viewing the play on court is invaluable in making these evaluations of defense. I always remember Ralph saying about one of our players, who seemed to be good on offense, that "he couldn't guard a table"....
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Post by efg72 on Nov 8, 2021 19:47:30 GMT -5
Ky, Fine, thorough analysis. My only quibble is not with you directly, but with Sports Reference’s defensive ratings. Having watched most of Faw’s games over four years, I can say he was far from a strong defender. His penchant for fouling put him on the bench and the team in big holes since we rarely had a qualified sub for him. But he was a stretch 4, maybe even an 3 offensively playing in the paint Imo We got the most out of Faw made possible by his heart and desire to be the best he could be We just had no other answers
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Post by Crosser on Nov 8, 2021 21:02:08 GMT -5
I've done that so many times. Sometimes I am smart enough to type it on a word document and then cut and paste. Sometimes... Mine wasn’t as detailed and insightful as yours, which I saw after I lost mine, but at least it showed some of my twisted, optimistic thought processes that led to my fanciful 19 guess.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Nov 8, 2021 21:34:09 GMT -5
Polls close tomorrow night at 700 PM--would love to get everyone's entry--makes for so much more fun as we debate through the season. I sure hope I am wrong and that everything comes together for a big winning season.
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Post by sader1970 on Nov 8, 2021 21:52:51 GMT -5
So far, roughly three quarters don't think we'll have a .500 season much less compete for a title.
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Post by efg72 on Nov 8, 2021 22:00:39 GMT -5
But i would think most, if not all, hope for a successful season with a winning record
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Post by longsuffering on Nov 8, 2021 22:41:42 GMT -5
So far, roughly three quarters don't think we'll have a .500 season much less compete for a title. Which will make it that much sweeter if it happens. I would say this year if the record is over .500 consider going to one of those pay as you go minor post season tournaments to add experience and have more minutes to distribute among our young roster.
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Post by sader1970 on Nov 9, 2021 5:31:23 GMT -5
That would be the ultimate “participation trophy!”
🏆
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Dec 4, 2021 16:01:43 GMT -5
I believe I picked the fewest number of wins for this season (ten). Not a chance we eclipse that mark.
Kentucky, what prize do I win?
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Post by sader1970 on Dec 4, 2021 16:29:59 GMT -5
KY, can I change my vote? Poll is locked.
Here's what I posted on the LaSalle game thread:
I figured before the season 9-10 wins, so took the 10-12 tier. Pretty sure we won't get half that.
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Post by longsuffering on Dec 4, 2021 16:34:40 GMT -5
That would be the ultimate “participation trophy!” 🏆 No, because you have to qualify to be able to pay to go by being at least .500 I believe. Right now even our money is no good.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Dec 4, 2021 19:52:52 GMT -5
I believe I picked the fewest number of wins for this season (ten). Not a chance we eclipse that mark. Kentucky, what prize do I win? Sadly it looks like you may be exposed as an optimist. We need some drastic changes if we hope to win even a few more games
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Post by bison137 on Dec 4, 2021 20:03:29 GMT -5
That would be the ultimate “participation trophy!” 🏆 No, because you have to qualify to be able to pay to go by being at least .500 I believe. Right now even our money is no good. Both the CIT and the CBI have taken teams with sub-.500 records in recent years. The CBI has had many of them. Their checks can be cashed just as easily as those from winning teams.
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Post by longsuffering on Dec 4, 2021 21:50:30 GMT -5
No, because you have to qualify to be able to pay to go by being at least .500 I believe. Right now even our money is no good. Both the CIT and the CBI have taken teams with sub-.500 records in recent years. The CBI has had many of them. Their checks can be cashed just as easily as those from winning teams. It's like vanity publishing.
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Post by hcnation on Feb 26, 2022 17:43:14 GMT -5
Bump this one
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