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Post by hcpride on Dec 27, 2021 17:59:20 GMT -5
40K testing positive at walk in sites in NY (and many more via home kits) alone each of the last few days (and most likely the next couple of weeks). 10 days isolation and contact tracking would seem impossible (and generally pointless) for all practical purposes. There is now new guidance from the CDC: Given what we currently know about COVID-19 and the Omicron variant, CDC is shortening the recommended time for isolation from 10 days for people with COVID-19 to 5 days, if asymptomatic, followed by 5 days of wearing a mask when around others. The change is motivated by science demonstrating that the majority of SARS-CoV-2 transmission occurs early in the course of illness, generally in the 1-2 days prior to onset of symptoms and the 2-3 days after. Therefore, people who test positive should isolate for 5 days and, if asymptomatic at that time, they may leave isolation if they can continue to mask for 5 days to minimize the risk of infecting others.
Additionally, CDC is updating the recommended quarantine period for those exposed to COVID-19. For people who are unvaccinated or are more than six months out from their second mRNA dose (or more than 2 months after the J&J vaccine) and not yet boosted, CDC now recommends quarantine for 5 days followed by strict mask use for an additional 5 days. Alternatively, if a 5-day quarantine is not feasible, it is imperative that an exposed person wear a well-fitting mask at all times when around others for 10 days after exposure. Individuals who have received their booster shot do not need to quarantine following an exposure, but should wear a mask for 10 days after the exposure. For all those exposed, best practice would also include a test for SARS-CoV-2 at day 5 after exposure. If symptoms occur, individuals should immediately quarantine until a negative test confirms symptoms are not attributable to COVID-19.www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/s1227-isolation-quarantine-guidance.html
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Dec 27, 2021 18:20:52 GMT -5
Massachusetts vaccination status as of Dec 26th.
Eligible population: about 6,650,000
> Unvaccinated: about 800,000
> One dose of Pfizer / Moderna: about 800,000 (first dose of Moderna / Pfizer this past week: 31,000. (J&J no longer offered)
> Fully vaccinated (two doses of Pfizer / Moderna; one dose of J&J): 5,056,000
> Boostered: about 2 million. 140,000 individuals received booster shots past seven days. Those vaccinated with J&J can receive a Pfizer/Moderna booster.
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Post by longsuffering on Dec 27, 2021 18:39:04 GMT -5
40K testing positive at walk in sites in NY (and many more via home kits) alone each of the last few days (and most likely the next couple of weeks). 10 days isolation and contact tracking would seem impossible (and generally pointless) for all practical purposes. There is now new guidance from the CDC: Given what we currently know about COVID-19 and the Omicron variant, CDC is shortening the recommended time for isolation from 10 days for people with COVID-19 to 5 days, if asymptomatic, followed by 5 days of wearing a mask when around others. The change is motivated by science demonstrating that the majority of SARS-CoV-2 transmission occurs early in the course of illness, generally in the 1-2 days prior to onset of symptoms and the 2-3 days after. Therefore, people who test positive should isolate for 5 days and, if asymptomatic at that time, they may leave isolation if they can continue to mask for 5 days to minimize the risk of infecting others.
Additionally, CDC is updating the recommended quarantine period for those exposed to COVID-19. For people who are unvaccinated or are more than six months out from their second mRNA dose (or more than 2 months after the J&J vaccine) and not yet boosted, CDC now recommends quarantine for 5 days followed by strict mask use for an additional 5 days. Alternatively, if a 5-day quarantine is not feasible, it is imperative that an exposed person wear a well-fitting mask at all times when around others for 10 days after exposure. Individuals who have received their booster shot do not need to quarantine following an exposure, but should wear a mask for 10 days after the exposure. For all those exposed, best practice would also include a test for SARS-CoV-2 at day 5 after exposure. If symptoms occur, individuals should immediately quarantine until a negative test confirms symptoms are not attributable to COVID-19.www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/s1227-isolation-quarantine-guidance.htmlThis should reduce cancellations of college games as more students get boosted.
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Post by longsuffering on Dec 27, 2021 18:50:54 GMT -5
"Sipping in a cup that a number of people have already placed their mouth just seems to invite the spread of potential illness." Just for clarity, there are no cases of transmission of any disease from a communion cup/chalice on record anywhere. I realize that just because something has never happened, that does not mean it is impossible in the future. On the other hand, Mass attendance is declining so perhaps no one has connected the dots.🤔 Liquor stores that offer wine tasting have the right idea with the little disposable plastic cups for each customer, and because the demonstrators are selling the distinctive taste of each variety, generally a fresh cup for each sample tasted. Even with those precautions I haven't attended any since before the pandemic.
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Post by hcpride on Dec 27, 2021 18:57:27 GMT -5
This should reduce cancellations of college games as more students get boosted. Yes, the Covid protocols addressing the ‘exposed’ but boosted may get some severe modifications shortly. I’d like to think we’re seeing the beginning of the end of all the Covid protocols impacting and/or damaging our young folks.
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Post by Crucis#1 on Dec 27, 2021 20:09:34 GMT -5
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Post by alum on Dec 28, 2021 9:02:12 GMT -5
In the Catholic churches and Masses (should always be capitalized!) I've attended in RI, CT, NY, it was very rare when the Eucharist was in both species and invariably just bread - no wine - except at a wedding and then usually just the bride and groom. Like Crucis, I would not partake of wine for many of the same reasons. Growing up, communion was always only the bread, not the wine. As an adult, in the churches I have attended, it has been almost always (pre Covid) in both species. I went to a Lutheran wedding once where the Communion wine was poured into individual plastic cups.
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Post by mm67 on Dec 28, 2021 10:00:42 GMT -5
In the Catholic churches and Masses (should always be capitalized!) I've attended in RI, CT, NY, it was very rare when the Eucharist was in both species and invariably just bread - no wine - except at a wedding and then usually just the bride and groom. Like Crucis, I would not partake of wine for many of the same reasons. Growing up, communion was always only the bread, not the wine. As an adult, in the churches I have attended, it has been almost always (pre Covid) in both species. I went to a Lutheran wedding once where the Communion wine was poured into individual plastic cups. Cheers!
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Post by sader1970 on Dec 28, 2021 10:43:01 GMT -5
Guess we are a poor diocese. Did the wine for all at Mass maybe 5 years ago for, like 3-4 weeks and it stopped. I don't think we can afford gallons of extra wine! Not everyone partook and this was prior to Covid.
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Post by rgs318 on Dec 28, 2021 11:29:23 GMT -5
In NJ we started to receive under both species decades ago. It has been stopped since early in Covid. In Vermont, it was stopped for flu season several years ago...and has never been restarted.
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Jan 1, 2022 13:05:26 GMT -5
A predictor of the future, near-term rate of new COVID cases in MassachusettsThis graph depicts the presence of COVID-19 particles in sampled sewage water from March 2020 to Dec 29, 2021, and collected at the Deer Island Wastewater Treatment Plant on Boston Harbor. Two distinct streams of sewage flow are analyzed daily, one stream from Greater Boston communities to the west and north of the plant, the other from Greater Boston communities to the south of the plant. The presence of COVID-19 particles, and their relative quantity, is a good proxy for the number of active infections in the communities served by this treatment plant. www.bostonglobe.com/2021/12/31/nation/coronavirus-detected-boston-area-waste-water-reaches-startling-new-highs/The rise of the Omicron variant in MassachusettsWhat the graph indicates. www.broadinstitute.org/news/tracking-omicron-variant-massachusettsHospitalizations by age in MassachusettsNumber of hospital admissions for individuals with COVID-19 by selected age cohort over the two-week periods of November 14-27, 2021 and December 12-25, 2021. Nov 14-27 / Dec 12-25Ages 17 and under: 28 / 61 Ages 18-29: 72 / 115 Ages 30-39: 115 / 246 Ages 40-49: 121 / 225 The data is suggestive -- but not conclusive -- that the increase in hospitalizations is associated with the rise of Omicron as the predominant variant, and that Omicron, compared to Delta, may present an increased risk of hospitalization for unvaccinated minors. Omicron, as a variant, is presently considered to cause a milder illness than Delta, because of its affinity for the upper respiratory tract rather than the lungs and other major organs that is more characteristic of Delta. Infection, hospitalization, and death of fully vaccinated individuals in MAData as of December 25th. N value is 5,065,160 (the number of fully vaccinated individuals as of Dec 25). Infected: 134,565; 2.7 percent of the fully vaccinated Hospitalized: 3,539; 0.07 percent Deaths: 854; 0.02 percent. On December 30, 2021, 686 of the 1,954 hospitalized COVID patients were categorized as fully vaccinated. On June 29, 2021, there were 110 hospitalized COVID patients; number of those who were fully vaccinated not calculated.) The Massachusetts hospital reporting form has blocks for identifying whether an admitted COVID patient has specific co-morbidities associated with higher risk of hospitalization / death. The publicly published reports do not identify percentage of hospitalized/deceased COVID patients with co-morbidities. At present, there is no breakout for hospitalizations and deaths for individuals who have received a booster shot. Comparing vaccinations, city of Worcester and the town of Marblehead, as of December 29, 2021Worcester / MarbleheadPercent of individuals ages 5 and over who had received One dose of vaccine (would include J&J): 74 / >95 Two doses of vaccine: 63 / 88 A booster: 15 / 46 Within the city of Worcester of those age 5 and older, 67 percent of Whites, 49 percent of Blacks, and 47 percent of Hispanics are fully vaccinated. Comparing infections, Greater Worcester# and Marblehead, for the two week period ending Dec 25.# of tests / percent positivityWorcester city 41,764 / 5.02% Auburn 2,643 / 8.89% Leicester 1,438 / 11.01% Millbury 1,687 / 9.84% Shrewsbury 5,483 / 7.30% Marblehead 3,528 / 7.24% # Adjacent communities displayed in addition to the city of Worcester to reduce distortion of Worcester city values stemming from higher testing volume done by higher ed institutions, and their relatively low positivity rates. For example, HC did over 5,000 tests during this same two-week period, WPI about 10,000 tests.
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Post by Chu Chu on Jan 1, 2022 15:02:02 GMT -5
Thanks, phreak. Great information. Sobering how fast this virus moves.
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Post by hcpride on Jan 1, 2022 22:17:19 GMT -5
PP: NYT (and others) have been pointing out that the very popular at- home test results are (of course) not reflected in the stats regarding infections. Millions of rapid at-home Covid tests are flying off pharmacy shelves across the country, giving Americans an instant, if sometimes imperfect, read on whether they are infected with the coronavirus.
But the results are rarely reported to public health departments, exacerbating the longstanding challenges of maintaining an accurate count of cases at a time when the number of infections is surging because of the Omicron variant.
At the minimum, the widespread availability of at-home tests is wreaking havoc with the accuracy of official positivity rates and case counts…
There is no comprehensive data on how many rapid tests are used every day, but experts say it is most likely far higher than the number of polymerase chain reaction, or P.C.R., tests, which are completed in a lab and require more time to deliver results, which are reported publicly as aggregate totals.www.nytimes.com/2021/12/30/us/at-home-rapid-covid-tests-cases.html(The effects of these unreported positives also includes rather obvious impacts on any quarantine/isolation/contact tracing initiatives.)
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Post by bfoley82 on Jan 2, 2022 0:10:10 GMT -5
PP: NYT (and others) have been pointing out that the very popular at- home test results are (of course) not reflected in the stats regarding infections. Millions of rapid at-home Covid tests are flying off pharmacy shelves across the country, giving Americans an instant, if sometimes imperfect, read on whether they are infected with the coronavirus.
But the results are rarely reported to public health departments, exacerbating the longstanding challenges of maintaining an accurate count of cases at a time when the number of infections is surging because of the Omicron variant.
At the minimum, the widespread availability of at-home tests is wreaking havoc with the accuracy of official positivity rates and case counts…
There is no comprehensive data on how many rapid tests are used every day, but experts say it is most likely far higher than the number of polymerase chain reaction, or P.C.R., tests, which are completed in a lab and require more time to deliver results, which are reported publicly as aggregate totals.www.nytimes.com/2021/12/30/us/at-home-rapid-covid-tests-cases.html(The effects of these unreported positives also includes rather obvious impacts on any quarantine/isolation/contact tracing initiatives.) Every PCR test I have taken (I think 15 or so now) has come back within 24 hours (sometimes within six hours).
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Post by sader1970 on Jan 2, 2022 11:36:15 GMT -5
That is likely very true but I've heard Fauci and other experts say that the number of positive cases is probably less important to measure now due to the omnipresence of Omicron which is much more transmissible but very likely much less severe and now the focus should be on hospitalizations and deaths. The rationale apparently being because with Delta, there was a clear link of cases to hospitalizations to deaths with almost a certain specific time link between each step. Omicron seems to have broken that direct correlation.
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Post by hcpride on Jan 2, 2022 12:23:29 GMT -5
/\ /\ Hmmmmm... the idea of focusing effort and attention on the Covid hospitalization and Covid death (as opposed to infections) stats and the at-risk (as opposed to the not-at-risk) is certainly a novel thought (the idea that some are finally now embracing that notion is actually a running joke in some circles).
(Off the topic, but my understanding is that the folks generally not-at-risk in the earlier days of Covid (younger, healthier) continued to be generally not at risk with Delta and continue to be generally not-at-risk with Omicron.)
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Post by sader1970 on Jan 2, 2022 13:35:01 GMT -5
Not to prolong this discussion but "not-at-risk" is a relative term to my understanding. Risk of hospitalization and/or death, no question lesser risk than older and immunocompromised for sure. Lesser risk but still a risk of getting and then spreading the virus to those who are at greater risk for severe consequences. So, if you are young and otherwise healthy and really don't care about those who are older or less healthy, not getting vaccinated and/or refusing to wear a mask certainly makes logical sense. But that would fly in the face of Holy Cross' mission of "Men and Women for Others."
Of course, if you (not you, pride) are one of those who think the whole Covid thing is a hoax, then that's a whole other discussion.
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Post by hcpride on Jan 3, 2022 6:57:16 GMT -5
The flu vax rate is again in the 50% neighborhood. The fact that certain groups (the very young, the elderly and some others) face a much greater risk of hospitalization and death than some other groups does not get that number near 100%. (Notwithstanding an ideal of Men and Women for others.)
As an aside, I suspect if the flu vax was a two or three shot series we’d see even lower flu vax numbers. And if the flu hospitalized/killed all groups of folks equally we might see higher numbers.
For the record I’m fully Covid vaxxed, Covid boostered and got Covid (once, as far as I know). I’ve been Flu vaxxed and as far as I know haven’t gotten it (yet?) this flu season.
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Post by longsuffering on Jan 3, 2022 14:58:37 GMT -5
I used to be hit or miss with the flu shot and fortunately never seemed to get the flu. Now my current PCP prompts me. Perhaps Medicare requires or rewards them to, which would be smart because the country would save billions just by increasing flu shot compliance from 50% to 70%.
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Jan 4, 2022 20:20:07 GMT -5
Nation-wide hospital admissions for COVID on indicated date. United States. Age cohort rates per 100,000 populationJan 9 2021 / Nov 30 2021 / Jan 2 2022Ages 70+ 30 / 11 / 20 Ages 60-69 13 / 6 / 10 Ages 50-59 8 / 4 / 7 Ages 30-49 4 / 2 / 4 Ages 18-29 2 / 1 / 3 Ages 0-17 1 / 1 / 2 The Nov 2021 admissions are all (or nearly all) related to the Delta variant. The majority (perhaps great majority) of the Jan 2, 2022 admissions are likely related to the Omicron variant. Significantly lower rates of admission for the cohorts age 60 and over almost certainly reflect the efficacy of having most of these cohorts fully vaccinated. (Fully vaccinated is not defined as including booster.) Increased rate of admissions for those ages 0-29 reflect lower vaccination rates, and possibly increased risk of serious illness if infected with Omicron rather than with Delta. --------------------------------------- And now a mystery [Italics mine] www.nytimes.com/2021/11/02/science/deer-covid-infection.htmlI don't believe any of the three italicized explanations for a New York minute. (The time-period covered by these studies was when the UK variant (Alpha) predominated. This was less infectious than Delta.) 1.) I doubt many Iowans hand-feed deer, close enough for humans to be sneezing coughing, shouting at the deer as they did. (This is transmission outdoors, after all.) 2.) I doubt even more that there are surface pools of human poop contaminating the Iowa country-side, and if there were, such would be of any interest to deer. 3.) I don't doubt there are hunters sitting in their blinds chewing wads of tobacco and spiting it out, but the idea that deer prowl around recently deserted hunting blinds and have a fondness for chewing tobacco seems desperately far-fetched. So the investigators have no good answers for why the nearly 500,000 white-tailed deer in Iowa are so heaving infected with COVID, and neither do I.
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Jan 6, 2022 7:51:10 GMT -5
On why PCR tests remain the gold standard.# A new measure of scientific certitude statnews.com/2022/01/05/study-raises-doubts-about-rapid-covid-tests-reliability-in-early-days-after-infection/?utm_source=STAT+Newsletters&utm_campaign=f8c5913f71-MR_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_8cab1d7961-f8c5913f71-151507929I can relay anecdotal confirmation of this. A casual friend, an American woman, in her late 30s, who could work from home, had gone to England in October to work for several months. She was fully vaccinated and boostered, but also suffers from an immune disorder of some sort. (I didn't inquire further.) In late December. she developed symptoms of COVID, and went to a NHS [National Health Service] hospital, and was tested. Test was negative. The next day, went again, test was inconclusive. Went the following day, test was positive, and she was 'admitted' for outpatient treatment, receiving supplemental oxygen. The three tests were almost certainly antigen tests. (She subsequently had a second day of outpatient treatment with supplemental oxygen, but is now improving.) It is likely she had Omicron, but because of her immune disorder, the virus was able to migrate from her upper respiratory tract to her lungs. and which was why she had a severe cough and low oxygen levels. She firmly believes if she had not been vaccinated and boostered, she would be dead. __________________ Omicron extinguishing Delta in the United StatesOn December 4, 2021Omicron represented 0.6% of COVID infections in the U.S. Delta 99.2% Other variants 0.2% On January 1, 2022
Omicron represented 95.4% of COVID infections in the U.S. Delta 4.6% All other 0.0% covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportionsOverall, this is a good thing as the risk of hospitalization and death from Omicron is significantly lower than from Delta, but it is nowhere near zero, particularly for the unvaccinated and those with immune deficiencies. And why is this so? Possibly because Omicron infects much faster after exposure (2-3 days), and has primed the body's immune system into a response, thus crowding out an infection from a Delta exposure (typically 4-6 days). __________________ Hospitalization rates with Omicronwww.nytimes.com/2022/01/04/health/covid-omicron-hospitalizations.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage§ion=HealthIts possible, even likely, that hospital are recording and reporting patients as being admitted with COVID even though they were asymptomatic and COVID was not what brought them to the hospital. ________________________ Projecting future COVID cases in Greater Boston This is becoming one of my favorite charts. This is a measure of COVID infections in Greater Boston. Sewage is analyzed from the presence of COVID, and there is a predictive correlation between the number of virus particles found in the sewage and the level of infection in the community. (The horizontal axis is from March 2020 to Jan 1, 2022) For those interested in the latest poop: www.bostonglobe.com/2022/01/05/nation/this-chart-may-tell-us-more-about-mass-covid-surge-than-any-other-heres-why/In looking at the chart, the COVID particle counts in the stream from northern communities in recent days have lagged behind the stream from southern communities, and the incremental day-by-day increase seems to be slowing in both. If this continues, the tipping point may be near, and the number new infections will begin declining, perhaps abruptly.
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Jan 7, 2022 5:45:59 GMT -5
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Post by hcpride on Jan 7, 2022 7:20:17 GMT -5
In just the last week two ideas long popular in some circles have suddenly become main stream: Focusing on hospitalizations rather than infections and differentiating between those who hit the hospital because they have a serious case of Covid and those who are already in the hospital for an unrelated issue and then test positive. A safe prediction is that there will be a more sudden discoveries of commonsense notions. Perhaps statistically differentiating between hospital admissions v hospital admissions to ICU and perhaps statistically differentiating those who died with Covid from those who died from Covid. Coincidentally , these four initiatives/ideas (will) have the effect of ratcheting down Covid alarmism.
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Post by hcpride on Jan 7, 2022 21:17:13 GMT -5
Well, it turns out those who’ve suddenly 😉 (after two years) come around to the notion that ‘Covid hospitalization’ stats may not actually be hospitalizations for Covid may be onto something : New statistics show that more than 40 percent of the state’s hospitalized coronavirus-infected patients were admitted for “non-COVID reasons” — with the ratio in New York City “about 50-50,” Gov. Kathy Hochul said Friday.
He also said there was “thankfully, very little in the way of children being admitted, which we hope will continue” and said those cases were also divided “50 percent with COVID, 50 percent for COVID.” nypost.com/2022/01/07/many-nyc-patients-hospitalized-with-covid-admitted-for-other-reasons/amp/
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Jan 7, 2022 22:23:45 GMT -5
The response from the politicians and media regarding corona will do whatever they can do help POTUS’ pitiful numbers.
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