So for some fun…looking at the FCS Standings by conference, I count 22 teams as virtual locks with ~8 teams on the bubble for the final 2 at large bids. Here’s a breakdown by Conference with conference records and overall records included: TAKING GUESSES ON THE LAST TWO TEAMS IN (or if you think one of my locks is out)
VIRTUAL LOCKS:
ASUN/WAC
-Sam Houston State 6-0/10-0 (likely #1 seed)
-Stephen F Austin 4-2/8-3 (at large)
BIG SKY
-Sacramento St. 8-0/9-2 (top 8 seed)
-Montana State 7-1/9-2 (top 8 seed)
-Montana 6-2/9-2 (at large)
-Eastern Washington 6-2/9-2 (at large)
-UC Davis 5-3/8-3 (at large)
BIG SOUTH
-Kennesaw State 7-0/10-1 (top 8 seed)
CAA
-Villanova 7-1/9-2 (top 8 seed)
-James Madison 7-1/10-1 (top 8 seed)
MVC
-North Dakota St 7-1/10-1 (top 8 seed)
-Missouri St 6-2/8-3 (at large)
-U of South Dakota 5-3/7-4 (at large)
-Southern Illinois 5-3/7-4 (at large)
-SDSU 5-3/8-3 (at large)
NEC
-Sacred Heart 6-1/8-3 (auto bid)
Ohio Valley
-UT Martin 5-1/9-2 (auto bid)
Patriot
-Holy Cross 6-0/9-2 (auto bid)
Pioneer
-Davidson 7-1/8-2 (auto bid)
Southern
- East Tenn St 7-1/10-1 (top 8 seed)
Southland
-Incarnate Word 7-1/9-2 (auto bid)
- SE Louisiana 6-2/8-3 (at large)
BUBBLE TEAMS: Including any that have at least have a prayer and this year a 6-5 team from a good conference and a tough OOC schedule (FBS losses) sneak in!
ASUN/WAC - Eastern Kentucky 4-2/7-4
Big Sky - Weber State 5-3/6-5 (some good wins and tough OOC losses to JMU and Utah, but would the committee admit a 6th team from the Big Sky?)
Big South - Monmouth 6-1/7-4
CAA - Elon 5-3 (solo 3rd place) 6-5
MVC - Northern Iowa 4-4/6-5 (very similar to Weber St with some great wins and close losses but again a 6th team from a conference?)
Southern - Mercer 6-2/7-3 (will only playing 10 games come back to bite them)
Southland - Nicholls 5-3/6-5 (strange schedule playing several teams twice but finished with a win vs SE Louisanna and 2 FBS losses including a 3 point loss to top 25 Louisiana (Lafayette)
SWAC - Florida A&M 6-1/9-2. So this is a wild card because I thought the 2 HBCU conference’s only post season game was the Celebration bowl with the Champion of the MEAC v the SWAC. However, since Jackson State won the SWAC, apparently Florida A&M is eligible to make the FCS playoffs. Not sure it’s ever happened before but would be pretty cool to see.