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Post by bfoley82 on Nov 13, 2021 22:51:56 GMT -5
Good one! I think if HC has the opportunity to host a playoff game, arrangements will be made to rent temporary lights. I wonder if it would be cheaper to play at Polar instead of renting lights, which I understand is expensive. We don't lose any home field advantage down the street and fans can get warm in the indoor areas. Polar Park also does not meet NCAA playoff standards with the end zones and two teams on same side of the field.
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Post by HC92 on Nov 13, 2021 23:07:36 GMT -5
How’d your club do against Rhode Island today? I don't know what club you are talking about? I don't play so not sure! Finally disassociating yourself from UNH football. Smart. Because they’re awful.
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Post by rgs318 on Nov 14, 2021 5:56:27 GMT -5
If there are no lights, what would cause a "lighting delay?" When you type on a phone, mistakes happen I have to admire that. I have a phone but would not even try to post from it.
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Nov 14, 2021 8:05:41 GMT -5
Regarding our opponent — while there are still a bunch of things that need to play out, guessing we’ll have either Rhode Island or Sacred Heart in the first round at Fitton.
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Nov 14, 2021 8:29:29 GMT -5
The bracket is announced next Sunday. After looking at Saturday's results, I think HC has a snowball in hell's chance of hosting. Too many multi-bid conferences with teams that will be ranked higher than HC. And the selection committee is not going to pair two teams outside the top 25 in the rankings in the first round.
For example, CAA has JMU and Villanova in and presumably with byes. Next best CAA record is URI (7-3), which needs to beat Elon (5-5) to get in, but URI lost to Villanova 44-0. Richmond (5-5) and W&M 6-4) play next Saturday, Does a 6-5 record get you in? I don't see more than three CAA teams in the bracket.
Big Sky conference probably gets five teams in, MVAC five, WAC 2, SWAC 2-3.
Loss to Merrimack hurts big-time, given Merrimack is now 5-5. Win over UConn counts little given UConn's sorry state. Win over Yale is discounted because of the trouncing by Harvard. Get points for the Monmouth win, but Monmouth is unlikely to beat Kennesaw St, so no bid for them at 7-4. So no wins against a top 25 or top 30 team or a team that makes the bracket.
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Post by HC92 on Nov 14, 2021 8:34:37 GMT -5
If we can’t host, it would be nice to play a team that is a reasonable ride from Worcester. I think the last projection had us playing Northern Iowa.
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Post by HC92 on Nov 14, 2021 8:35:10 GMT -5
Regarding our opponent — while there are still a bunch of things that need to play out, guessing we’ll have either Rhode Island or Sacred Heart in the first round at Fitton. From your lips to God’s ears.
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Post by ndgradbuthcfan on Nov 14, 2021 8:38:47 GMT -5
RE: PP's prediction. Your conclusion may be correct but I don't agree with all of the reasoning that got you there. For example, Monmouth has a good chance of defeating Kennesaw St. and you don't even mention yesterday's decisive win over a good Fordham team (riding a six game win streak).
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Post by HC92 on Nov 14, 2021 8:40:45 GMT -5
Just saw another projection from Thursday that had Fordham playing URI in the first round. So, I won’t pay much attention to that one.
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Nov 14, 2021 8:46:38 GMT -5
Hard to take PP’s analysis seriously when he says the SWAC is sending 2-3 teams to the playoffs.
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Post by gerry on Nov 14, 2021 8:49:27 GMT -5
In 2009, we were 9-1 heading into the final week of the season in Lewisburg. A win and we'd likely have hosted UNH in the first round of the playoffs. We lost to a bad Bucknell team (who fired Tim Landis after the game), which led us to traveling to Villanova instead. Let's take care of business and then worry about what the committee decides to do with us. The general feeling at Bucknell is that Landis was not fired. He didn't resign until December 24th, which made it harder to find a new coach. If they were going to fire him, it likely would have come a month earlier. At that time Landis had one more year on his contract, and it is likely the Bucknell AD told him at the end-of-season meeting that there would be no extension and, further, that his contract would not be renewed unless there was major improvement. Not really relevant to the conversation, but ok
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Nov 14, 2021 8:56:25 GMT -5
The bracket is announced next Sunday. After looking at Saturday's results, I think HC has a snowball in hell's chance of hosting. Too many multi-bid conferences with teams that will be ranked higher than HC. And the selection committee is not going to pair two teams outside the top 25 in the rankings in the first round. [ Good chance that HC is a top 25 team in this coming week’s rankings. If not this week, then likely the following week at 9-2. Also, if URI finishes the season 8-3, then they will be ranked. Fordham hosted Sacred Heart in 2013 and 2014. Not uncommon, with the field now at 24, for regionalization pairing to happen in the first round.
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Nov 14, 2021 9:00:39 GMT -5
If we can’t host, it would be nice to play a team that is a reasonable ride from Worcester. I think the last projection had us playing Northern Iowa. UNI lost, now at 5 and 5 and will not make the bracket. MVAC currently has ND State 9-1 (and a bye); Missouri State, Southern Illinois, South Dakota, and South Dakota State all at 7-3. Big Sky has five teams with records of 8-2 or better.
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Post by ndgradbuthcfan on Nov 14, 2021 9:04:00 GMT -5
Massey (today) has us at 29, up 7 from last week.
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Post by HC92 on Nov 14, 2021 9:07:27 GMT -5
Agree with SOV that regionalization is a priority. They sent to care less about two “weaker” teams playing in the first round if it reduces travel. So, it’s mostly a question of whether there are the right number of teams from the northeast who are not seeded teams (like Villanova should be) playing first round games.
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Post by nycrusader2010 on Nov 14, 2021 9:12:41 GMT -5
The bracket is announced next Sunday. After looking at Saturday's results, I think HC has a snowball in hell's chance of hosting. Too many multi-bid conferences with teams that will be ranked higher than HC. And the selection committee is not going to pair two teams outside the top 25 in the rankings in the first round. For example, CAA has JMU and Villanova in and presumably with byes. Next best CAA record is URI (7-3), which needs to beat Elon (5-5) to get in, but URI lost to Villanova 44-0. Richmond (5-5) and W&M 6-4) play next Saturday, Does a 6-5 record get you in? I don't see more than three CAA teams in the bracket.Big Sky conference probably gets five teams in, MVAC five, WAC 2, SWAC 2-3. Loss to Merrimack hurts big-time, given Merrimack is now 5-5. Win over UConn counts little given UConn's sorry state. Win over Yale is discounted because of the trouncing by Harvard. Get points for the Monmouth win, but Monmouth is unlikely to beat Kennesaw St, so no bid for them at 7-4. So no wins against a top 25 or top 30 team or a team that makes the bracket. URI should be in IMO if they beat Elon, which won't be as easy game by any stretch. They will have closed out the season at 7-4 with 3 straight wins, including an "FBS win" against UMass. Zero shot that any 6-5 teams get in from the CAA => Fordham at 7-4 with 2 FBS losses would get in before that took place. William & Mary has a good shot to get in at 7-4 with a win over Richmond, especially with their win over Nova. Would be tough to take URI and not W&M, if it came to that for the last spot, given the Tribe's signature win over 'Nova. The SWAC hasn't sent a team to the playoffs since 1996. Reason being that Grambling and Southern play the Bayou Classic on Thanksgiving and the winners of the East and West divisions play in the SWAC championship game the following week. The league doesn't have a postseason ban but the only way it can get represented in the playoffs is if a team that doesn't make the SWAC title game (and also isn't named Grambling or Southern) manages to be good enough for at-large consideration. Ironically, Florida A&M might be that team this year. So SWAC might have a team in the field for the first time in 25 years.
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Post by nycrusader2010 on Nov 14, 2021 9:15:47 GMT -5
The bracket is announced next Sunday. After looking at Saturday's results, I think HC has a snowball in hell's chance of hosting. Too many multi-bid conferences with teams that will be ranked higher than HC. And the selection committee is not going to pair two teams outside the top 25 in the rankings in the first round. [ Good chance that HC is a top 25 team in this coming week’s rankings. If not this week, then likely the following week at 9-2. Also, if URI finishes the season 8-3, then they will be ranked. Fordham hosted Sacred Heart in 2013 and 2014. Not uncommon, with the field now at 24, for regionalization pairing to happen in the first round. I think we sneak into the Top 25 after yesterday.
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Post by hcpride on Nov 14, 2021 9:23:20 GMT -5
Agree with SOV that regionalization is a priority. They sent to care less about two “weaker” teams playing in the first round if it reduces travel. So, it’s mostly a question of whether there are the right number of teams from the northeast who are not seeded teams (like Villanova should be) playing first round games. Agreed on all fronts. The seeded teams receive a first-round bye in the tournament. The remaining 16 teams play first-round games and are paired according to geographic proximity and then placed in the bracket according to geographic proximity to the top eight seeds. Teams cannot travel more than 400 miles via ground, and teams from the same conference that played each other during the regular season will not be paired for first-round games.
www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2020-01-11/fcs-championship-everything-you-need-know Hypothetically, if just 4 northeast teams (HC, SH, Nova, URI) qualify and are unseeded we may very well face URI or Nova the first round (Since URI and Nova are from the same conference and played each other). Note, this is hypothetical.
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Post by timholycross on Nov 14, 2021 9:30:43 GMT -5
Would they pair HC w/Monmouth again if Monmouth wins Saturday?
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Post by nycrusader2010 on Nov 14, 2021 9:34:43 GMT -5
Would they pair HC w/Monmouth again if Monmouth wins Saturday? While there is no outright rule against it, the committee always avoids rematches in the first round. They also occasionally schedule in-conference matchups in the first round IF those teams didn't face each other during regular season. So a William & Mary-URI first round matchup, for example, would theoretically be possible. Given that there are possibly two other teams in New England making the field, likely Monmouth gets paired with one of these guys, or even William & Mary if they win next week. I still think most signs point to HC-SHU or HC-URI. If SHU somehow loses to LIU next week and Bryant beats Merrimack AND Duquesne and St. Francis both win, you're looking at a 4-way tie for the NEC. But SHU controls their own destiny with a game against the 7th place team for now.
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Post by gerry on Nov 14, 2021 9:40:59 GMT -5
If I am not mistaken, URI is pretty decimated by injuries which explained their mid-season tailspin. Not sure if they got guys healthy, or it was the ineptness of the last two opponents that got them back on track. I saw them play Maine a few weeks back. They have a pretty good QB, but he was getting killed behind an overmatched O Line. Maine smoked them in that game
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Post by nycrusader2010 on Nov 14, 2021 9:44:45 GMT -5
If I am not mistaken, URI is pretty decimated by injuries which explained their mid-season tailspin. Not sure if they got guys healthy, or it was the ineptness of the last two opponents that got them back on track. I saw them play Maine a few weeks back. They have a pretty good QB, but he was getting killed behind an overmatched O Line. Maine smoked them in that game I haven't watched them but UMass and UNH are both weak teams that they managed to take care of business against. Don't let their 5-5 record fool you because Elon is a very good team and will be favored down in NC against the Rams. If URI can manage to win that one on the road, they've built a strong case to be in at 7-4 (5-3 CAA) with an FBS win and a 3-game winning streak to close the season.
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Nov 14, 2021 9:47:02 GMT -5
Hard to take PP’s analysis seriously when he says the SWAC is sending 2-3 teams to the playoffs. Jackson State is 9-1, Florida A&M is 8-2. Both ranked higher than HC in last week's coaches poll. And higher than URI. And both ranked higher than HC in the StatsPerform poll (included on the NCAA FCS site as one of two ranking polls.) HC was ranked 36 in the StatsPerform poll, with three votes. This was good for last, and meant that HC received votes on two or more ballots. Sacred Heart doesn't make either poll. FWIW, here is a link to StatsPerform. www.statsperform.com/fcs/I never heard of them before, but they are one of two polls referenced on the NCAA FCS' website, the other being the coaches poll. _____________ If Monmouth (7-3) were to beat #5 Kennesaw State (9-1), that would give Monmouth the conference championship and the autobid, and a much better chance of hosting HC than of HC hosting Monmouth. (I think HC-Monmouth can be matched because they are not in the same conference.) Monmouth at 7-4 would not get an at-large bid, IMO.
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Nov 14, 2021 9:53:54 GMT -5
HC and Sacred Heart are making the playoffs as at-large teams. Jackson St and FAMU are most likely not. Big difference. The SOS of the SWAC teams are among the worst in the country, too. HC isn't playing Monmouth in the first round, even if Monmouth were to make the field. I recommend reading this smart post on AGS about playoff projections, PP: www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?287253-Week-11-Playoff-Prognostication I think you'll find it to be worthwhile.
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Nov 14, 2021 9:59:33 GMT -5
Most bracketologists have 'Nova as a seed, so not part of the northeast schools in the first round. IIRC, regionalization was repeatedly referenced and emphasized on this board in the spring for the FCS, and HC was sent to South Dakota.
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