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Post by midwestsader05 on Nov 20, 2021 22:32:11 GMT -5
Posted this to the other thread but figured it deserved its own new one! So for some fun…looking at the FCS Standings by conference, I count 22 teams as virtual locks with ~8 teams on the bubble for the final 2 at large bids. Here’s a breakdown by Conference with conference records and overall records included: TAKING GUESSES ON THE LAST TWO TEAMS IN (or if you think one of my locks are out)
VIRTUAL LOCKS:
ASUN/WAC -Sam Houston State 6-0/10-0 (likely #1 seed) -Stephen F Austin 4-2/8-3 (at large)
BIG SKY -Sacramento St. 8-0/9-2 (top 8 seed) -Montana State 7-1/9-2 (top 8 seed) -Montana 6-2/9-2 (at large) -Eastern Washington 6-2/9-2 (at large) -UC Davis 5-3/8-3 (at large)
BIG SOUTH -Kennesaw State 7-0/10-1 (top 8 seed)
CAA -Villanova 7-1/9-2 (top 8 seed) -James Madison 7-1/10-1 (top 8 seed)
MVC -North Dakota St 7-1/10-1 (top 8 seed) -Missouri St 6-2/8-3 (at large) -U of South Dakota 5-3/7-4 (at large) -Southern Illinois 5-3/7-4 (at large) -SDSU 5-3/8-3 (at large)
NEC -Sacred Heart 6-1/8-3 (auto bid)
Ohio Valley -UT Martin 5-1/9-2 (auto bid)
Patriot -Holy Cross 6-0/9-2 (auto bid)
Pioneer -Davidson 7-1/8-2 (auto bid)
Southern -East Tenn St 7-1/10-1 (top 8 seed)
Southland -Incarnate Word 7-1/9-2 (auto bid) -SE Louisiana 6-2/8-3 (at large)
BUBBLE TEAMS: Including any that have at least have a prayer and this year a 6-5 team from a good conference and a tough OOC schedule (FBS losses) could sneak in!
ASUN/WAC - Eastern Kentucky 4-2/7-4 Big Sky - Weber State 5-3/6-5 (some good wins and tough OOC losses to JMU and Utah, but would the committee admit a 6th team from the Big Sky?) Big South - Monmouth 6-1/7-4 CAA - Elon 5-3 (solo 3rd place) 6-5 MVC - Northern Iowa 4-4/6-5 (very similar to Weber St with some great wins and close losses but again a 6th team from a conference?) Southern - Mercer 6-2/7-3 (will only playing 10 games come back to bite them) Southland - Nicholls 5-3/6-5 (strange schedule playing several teams twice but finished with a win vs SE Louisanna and 2 FBS losses including a 3 point loss to top 25 Louisiana (Lafayette) SWAC - Florida A&M 6-1/9-2. So this is a wild card because I thought the 2 HBCU conference’s only post season game was the Celebration bowl with the Champion of the MEAC v the SWAC. However, since Jackson State won the SWAC, apparently Florida A&M is eligible to make the FCS playoffs. Not sure it’s ever happened before but would be pretty cool to see.
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Post by hc87 on Nov 20, 2021 22:35:52 GMT -5
I think it's a fait accompli (given travel, regionalization etc) that it will be SHU at Fitton, winnah at Nova, no???
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Post by midwestsader05 on Nov 20, 2021 22:40:23 GMT -5
I’m going with Florida A&M and Mercer as the last two in.
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Post by HC92 on Nov 20, 2021 22:42:01 GMT -5
SHU’s home field seats 3,334. Either Fitton or “Campus Field” works for me.
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Post by cruskater31 on Nov 20, 2021 23:24:13 GMT -5
I'll take Eastern KY and Florida A&M for 500, Alex.
Thinking we might wind up as the defacto 20-22 seed even though technically only 1-8 are seeded. A 7-4 East KY, Monmouth, or 7-3 Mercer would seem to be 24. Davidson and Sacred Heart and maybe Fl A&M also below us.
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Post by hc2020 on Nov 20, 2021 23:33:23 GMT -5
One prognosticator’s predictions - with HS having a rematch with SDSU, which is a real head-scratcher:
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Post by hc2020 on Nov 20, 2021 23:34:41 GMT -5
HC and SDSU in the first round seems to blow up the entire regional angle to first round matchups.
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Post by midwestsader05 on Nov 20, 2021 23:42:50 GMT -5
SHU’s home field seats 3,334. Either Fitton or “Campus Field” works for me. Interesting because they drew over 7,300 to the Duquesne game. Do they have temporary stands that don’t count in the official capacity?
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Post by midwestsader05 on Nov 20, 2021 23:46:24 GMT -5
One prognosticator’s predictions - with HS having a rematch with SDSU, which is a real head-scratcher: He’s typically pretty spot on but has several head scratchers including URI as the first team out. How could that be if Elon just beat them head to head and finished with a better record (solo third) in the CAA? Also has 4 Big Sky teams with top 8 seeds which I guess is possible but doesn’t seem likely..
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Post by hcpride on Nov 21, 2021 3:46:56 GMT -5
HC and SDSU in the first round seems to blow up the entire regional angle to first round matchups. One well known exception to the regional rule (yes, rules have exceptions) prominently comes into play if several FCS first round playoff teams from within a conference (or two) have already played each other this season. They can’t be matched up first round. Herder’s bracket prediction, matching us with SDSU this year, might reflect the cascading effects of that exception. I think their conference has 4 (!) teams predicted to play first round. Otherwise, a head scratcher. And hopefully wrong. 🤞 CAA with just two selectees (albeit both are seeded) would be interesting.
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Post by nycrusader2010 on Nov 21, 2021 10:35:08 GMT -5
SHU’s home field seats 3,334. Either Fitton or “Campus Field” works for me. Interesting because they drew over 7,300 to the Duquesne game. Do they have temporary stands that don’t count in the official capacity? Maybe they counted parking passes sold to those who just stayed in tailgated. I know UNH has announced Homecoming crowds of 20,000 and their stadium holds at most 15K IIRC.
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Post by nycrusader2010 on Nov 21, 2021 10:39:49 GMT -5
I don't see Herder's bracket taking shape.
I predict HC-SHU feeding into Villanova.
I think someone like Southeast Louisiana will get sent to Brookings, SD.
IMO, only way we get shipped out somewhere out of region is if URI gets in at 7-4 and draws SHU. Possible but the Rams don't deserve to be in. 7-4 with a soft CAA schedule that avoided JMU and William & Mary. While UMASS stinks, they will get some "clout tokens" for their FBS win. That could help but shouldn't be enough. Rhode Island is the lowest ranked by Sagarin of all the potential bubble teams. The highest rated of all the bubble teams is actually 6-5 Northern Iowa, who would be the 6th MVC team in.
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Post by hcpride on Nov 21, 2021 10:50:10 GMT -5
I don't see Herder's bracket taking shape. I predict HC-SHU feeding into Villanova. I think someone like Southeast Louisiana will get sent to Brookings, SD. IMO, only way we get shipped out somewhere out of region is if URI gets in at 7-4 and draws SHU. Possible but the Rams don't deserve to be in. 7-4 with a soft CAA schedule that avoided JMU and William & Mary. While UMASS stinks, they will get some "clout tokens" for their FBS win. That could help but shouldn't be enough. Rhode Island is the lowest ranked by Sagarin of all the potential bubble teams. The highest rated of all the bubble teams is actually 6-5 Northern Iowa, who would be the 6th MVC team in. FYI (Southeastern Louisanna) As was the case two years ago, Southeastern has submitted a “very aggressive” financial bid to be a home team, said athletic director Jay Artigues, just as was the case in 2019 when the Lions hosted Villanova, winning 45-44.
The home sites are awarded on the basis of the bids rather than seeding.
“We know from the last four years what the top and bottom bids have been,” Artigues said. “And ours in 2019 was the highest, as I am sure this one is.
“We believe our kids deserve a chance to play at home and we’re going to give them that opportunity if we can. Obviously it’s in the hands of the committee, but they should realize what this team has accomplished.”
If SLU is at home, the bracketology projections have the Lions meeting either South Dakota State (7-3), Northern Iowa (5-5) or Missouri State (7-3).www.nola.com/sports/article_50941e42-4a69-11ec-a692-43ce1ed48bcc.html
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Post by midwestsader05 on Nov 21, 2021 10:52:32 GMT -5
NY, see my Elon comments above. It would be disgusting if URI got in over Elon. Just look how each finished the second half of the season. (And my brother in law went to Elon and is already on edge if a 3rd CAA team gets in over them.) They own the outright 3rd place at 5-3 in the league (with losses to both JMU and Villanova).
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Nov 21, 2021 10:59:37 GMT -5
Chuck from College Sports Journal bracket:
Holy Cross/Southern Illinois winner vs. No 1 NDSU South Dakota/Montana winner vs. No. 8 ETSU
Sacred Heart/Missouri State winner vs. No. 4 South Dakota State UNI/Southeastern Louisiana winner vs. No. 5. EWU
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Post by cruskater31 on Nov 21, 2021 11:08:23 GMT -5
Not for anything but I can't see us being put in the #1 seed side of the bracket with Sacred Heart and Davidson still on the boars. IMO, we should at worst be put with the #3 or #4 seed. I would be lobbying hard to get out of this bottom feeder league if we are stuck in Fargo.
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Post by midwestsader05 on Nov 21, 2021 11:13:55 GMT -5
Interesting all the pundits have UNI getting one of the last 2 spots. I just thought going 4-4 in the MVC and solo 6th wouldn’t quite be enough. Clearly they are giving more weight to how they started the season (close loss to Iowa State and only FCS team to beat Sac State) but I thought getting upset by Illinois State late in the season and a 4th conference loss doomed them…we’ll see shortly.
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Post by mm67 on Nov 21, 2021 11:25:57 GMT -5
HC vs Kennesaw State might be an interesting intersectional game. Distance about 1,100 miles.
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Post by longsuffering on Nov 21, 2021 11:50:01 GMT -5
HC vs Kennesaw State might be an interesting intersectional game. Distance about 1,100 miles. Kennesaw State has 43,000 students. About 38,000 undergrads. Shows that HC can compete with larger schools in scholarship sports.
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Post by deep Purple on Nov 21, 2021 11:57:37 GMT -5
I think it's a fait accompli (given travel, regionalization etc) that it will be SHU at Fitton, winnah at Nova, no??? But why would SHU be at Fitton? SHU plays in a better league and beat Merrimack.
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Post by hcpride on Nov 21, 2021 11:59:03 GMT -5
I think it's a fait accompli (given travel, regionalization etc) that it will be SHU at Fitton, winnah at Nova, no??? But why would SHU be at Fitton? SHU plays in a better league and beat Merrimack. This round is not seeded so that is a moot point. (One of the unusual things about the tournament and one that is difficult for folks to get their head around. The best of the first round teams, for example, may play the second best or the worst or anyone in between …with exceptions since rules have exceptions)
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Post by longsuffering on Nov 21, 2021 12:03:52 GMT -5
I think it's a fait accompli (given travel, regionalization etc) that it will be SHU at Fitton, winnah at Nova, no??? But why would SHU be at Fitton? SHU plays in a better league and beat Merrimack. Ouch and ouch.
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Post by sader1970 on Nov 21, 2021 12:06:03 GMT -5
How many teams have won their league 3 years in a row? How many have beaten an FBS team (yeah, I know, UConn, but still)? How many have a 23,000+ seat stadium in a relatively large city?
I know I'm preaching top the choir. Less than a half hour, we'll know.
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Post by thecrossisback on Nov 21, 2021 12:20:27 GMT -5
Lets say we went 10-1. Only loss to Harvard. We still don't get a top 8 seed.
Shows you how little room for error the east teams have.
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Post by fillfittonfield on Nov 21, 2021 12:27:48 GMT -5
Ughh. I don’t have ESPNU and won’t be able to watch the selection show.
For those watching, please share frequent updates and any insights!
Thanks!
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