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Post by WorcesterGray on Dec 21, 2021 13:03:20 GMT -5
Also Carmody's last year (with a few D1 ranks). If you believe with Dean Oliver et. al. that how a team does these four things on either end of the court correlates with success (or not), may be of interest to some.
OFFENSE 2021-22* 2020-21 2019-20 2018-19
EFG% 43.9% 50.3% 49.3% 52.7% (91st)
TO%% 20.8% 17.8% 20.0% 15.8% (34th)
OR% 27.4% 23.7 23.3% 18.9% (342nd)
FTR 27.6% 26.1 24.6% 23.1%
DEFENSE
EFG% 55.1% 52.6% 55.9% 53.8% (313th)
TO% 17.3% 18.2% 15.0% 21.7%
DR% 68.0% 70.7% 72.6% 69.3% (313th)
FTR 26.6% 35.2 % 31.4% 26.8%
*End of OOC
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Post by hc17 on Dec 21, 2021 14:42:13 GMT -5
Thank you for posting these figures! It provides a good snapshot of how the last few years have gone despite the W/L columns. I'm not quite sure where to post this, so please excuse me as I go on another rant:
I've long defended Nelson on this board. Whether it was the initial hire & his experience, the 'victories' on the recruiting trail, to the situation he inherited, I defended BN. As we find ourselves halfway through season 3, I do believe we will be entrusting Mr. Hughes & the Board to identify a new coach in short order. While I do not wish any ill-will to BN, the on-court performance has been pathetic. At some point, results matter and while successful coaches have dug themselves out of early holes (ie. Langel, etc), I don't see any evidence that this program will. I expected bigger development jumps this year...they have not arrived. I expected a style of play on O & D to be fully ingrained into the players....it hasn't....I don't know what to make of the X's & O's other than that they are failing our players. Nelson's run & gun offense & pressure defense leaves a lot to desire to say the least and the lack of adjustments (in & out of game) have not positioned the team to be successful. As some have also pointed out, the "Attack & Serve" nonsense just leaves me irritated these days.
A potential coaching change may set the team back, but we're already scraping the bottom of the barrel to point where another mass exodus doesn't bother me as much as it once would have. To be clear, I hope that wouldn't happen and these young gentlemen pursue their degree from HC. Finally, with Mr. Hughes assuming his new role....I'll find it very difficult for him not to pull the trigger. Will the BoT & VR back their new guy? I think the politics of the situation suggests they will. Where does that leave us? I'm not sure, but I'd place an emphasis on head coaching experience if a new search commences. If we find ourselves in that position, I'm sure there will be plenty discussion on potential candidates, but I don't think we'd need to look very far for qualified candidates that can WIN at HC (Yes, it can happen!)
To end on a positive note, the guys haven't quit on their coach. To me, that is very telling of their character, competitiveness, and ambition. So here's to coach pulling a rabbit out of a hat in conference play! Happy Holidays to you & your families gang!
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Dec 21, 2021 14:57:54 GMT -5
Also Carmody's last year (with a few D1 ranks). If you believe with Dean Oliver et. al. that how a team does these four things on either end of the court correlates with success (or not), may be of interest to some.
OFFENSE 2021-22*
EFG% 43.9%
DEFENSE
EFG% 55.1%
In summation, we don't put the ball in the basket at a high enough rate and our opponents do just the opposite. Terrific post, 17. |
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Post by sader1970 on Dec 21, 2021 15:56:47 GMT -5
Two or three weeks ago, I asked what exactly "attack & serve" meant as I sincerely had no idea what this meant. I asked the intelligentsia of Crossports what it meant and, if memory serves, not one poster had any more of a clue than I did.
I could only surmise that the "attack" part meant fast-breaking, up-tempo game and perhaps, just perhaps, the "serve" has nothing to do with basketball per se and meant to serve the community - both the College and the Worcester community. Otherwise, it is indeed nonsense.
Either Brett really knew how to B.S. his way through search firm interviews or Blossom, despite his basketball background, had no clue on how to hire a head basketball coach. Probability is a little (lot?) of both.
I will be more than distressed if the rest of the season goes like the beginning of this season and the last 1.5 prior seasons and Kit keeps him.
Now, my Christmas wish is that a miracle happens in 2022 and all this negative vibe goes away as Brett & his troops put it all together and contend for the PL championship. Indeed, that'd be more of a miracle than Carmody's bolt out of the blue tournament championship which we came to understand was a one time deal.
Merry Christmas and good luck, Brett, you'll need it as talent alone probably can't get you where you need to be.
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Post by WorcesterGray on Jan 10, 2022 17:06:29 GMT -5
Two or three weeks ago, I asked what exactly "attack & serve" meant as I sincerely had no idea what this meant. I asked the intelligentsia of Crossports what it meant and, if memory serves, not one poster had any more of a clue than I did. I could only surmise that the "attack" part meant fast-breaking, up-tempo game and perhaps, just perhaps, the "serve" has nothing to do with basketball per se and meant to serve the community - both the College and the Worcester community. Otherwise, it is indeed nonsense. One way of interpreting the "attack" mantra is that Nelson is trying to generate offense closer to the basket than we have been used to seeing - attacking the rim. Whatever one thinks of the philosophy or the results, that's what we've been doing . . .
- The percentage of total FGAs Holy Cross is shooting inside the arc - the so-called "two point rate" - is approaching 72%, up from 61% in Nelson's first year, and the highest two-point rate for the team since 2009-10.
- The share of available rebounds we are getting at the offensive end (OR%) has increased each year from 18.9% in Carmody's last year to 26.1% this season to date. That's the highest it's been since 2015-16, the team Carmody inherited.
- In theory, if you're doing most of your work close to the basket, you should draw more fouls. And the free throws we've earned as a percentage of field goals attempted - Free Throw Rate - has, in fact, steadily risen each of the last three years from 2018-19, and is currently sitting at 30% - also the highest since 2015-16.
Against Lafayette, we took 86% of our shots from two, snared 26% of the available boards at the offensive end, and had 26 free throws with an FTR of 46% (both season highs)
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Post by sader1970 on Jan 10, 2022 18:00:57 GMT -5
Makes as much sense as anything else. Thanks for your hypothesis!  P.S. It'd be nice if Nelson actually explained it himself to other than his small circle of friends. |
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Post by efg72 on Jan 10, 2022 18:55:12 GMT -5
I believe, but I am also part of the Missouri mindset
He still needs to show me
And as the movie braveheart closes the line is not yet, not yet— or something like that
Let’s steal a game tonight
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Post by sader1970 on Jan 11, 2022 7:42:29 GMT -5
WooGray, what about the “serve” part of the “attack and serve?”
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Post by dadominate on Jan 11, 2022 7:52:46 GMT -5
I believe, but I am also part of the Missouri mindset He still needs to show me And as the movie braveheart closes the line is not yet, not yet— or something like that Let’s steal a game tonight that's from gladiator, efg! although understandable mixup of two of the most epic, testosterone boosting movies in history. We do need to find our inner William Wallace as a program. Lower your flags and march straight back to England, stopping at every home you pass by to beg forgiveness for a hundred years of theft, rape, and murder. Do that and your men shall live. Do it not, and every one of you will die today. |
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Post by efg72 on Jan 11, 2022 9:13:22 GMT -5
I believe, but I am also part of the Missouri mindset He still needs to show me And as the movie braveheart closes the line is not yet, not yet— or something like that Let’s steal a game tonight that's from gladiator, efg! although understandable mixup of two of the most epic, testosterone boosting movies in history. We do need to find our inner William Wallace as a program. Lower your flags and march straight back to England, stopping at every home you pass by to beg forgiveness for a hundred years of theft, rape, and murder. Do that and your men shall live. Do it not, and every one of you will die today. DaDom-- absolutely right-- sorry about the confusion on my part-- both great films |
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Post by WorcesterGray on Mar 3, 2022 10:05:01 GMT -5
Updated, end of season. Also Carmody's last year (with selected D1 ranks). If you believe with Dean Oliver et. al. that how a team does these four things on either end of the court correlates with success (or not), may be of interest to some.
OFFENSE 2021-22 2020-21 2019-20 2018-19
EFG% 45.1% (340th) 50.3% 49.3% 52.7% (91st)
TO%% 17.8% 17.8% 20.0% 15.8%
OR% 24.8% (223rd) 23.7% 23.3% 18.9% (342nd)
FTR 28.6% 26.1% 24.6% 23.1%
DEFENSE
EFG% 53.2% (310th) 52.6% 55.9% 53.8% (313th)
TO% 17.2% 18.2% 15.0% 21.7%
DR% 72.4% (239th) 70.7% 72.6% 69.3% (313th)
FTR 30.8% 35.2 % 31.4% 26.8%
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Post by timholycross on Mar 3, 2022 18:01:11 GMT -5
So why did this team go 9-22 and BC's last team went 16-17? Worse in conference play by a game, OOC quite a bit better.
From the stats above, you'd have to say that being 91st in EFG vs 340th was worth 7 more wins; weighed against the OR% and DR% being considerably better under BN.
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